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Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Takes a lot of guts to forecast above average snowfall with near to above average temps.  That doesn't happen very often around here.

That would be 07-08 for SMI. We ended up in the avg range for temps. This year, NOAA has us as AN temps and Snow. That'd be a 1st here too if it should play out that way.

This was interesting from DTXs outlook:

image.thumb.png.0f6fc8ae11e64a2f49c76e43f7c647d6.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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@Tomlooks like Gary is thinking 61 days on his blog this morning.  He also said he'll be releasing Winter forecast with more detail Sunday morning.

And, just like that a storm is showing up. And, this storm fits the LRC perfectly. I am confident a winter storm will begin forming around one week from now, but will KC be hit by this storm?

Surface Forecast Valid Sunday Morning, December 12th (One week from Sunday):

Next Weekend's Potential Winter Storm
Next Weekend's Potential Winter Storm

The models are all over the place, as usual, and some of the runs end our snowflake contest.

European Model:

Snow Prediction European Model
F5 Weather

American Model:

American Model Snow Prediction
American Model Snow Prediction

Recent Stories from kshb.com

 
 
 
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On 12/3/2021 at 8:32 AM, Clinton said:

@Tomlooks like Gary is thinking 61 days on his blog this morning.  He also said he'll be releasing Winter forecast with more detail Sunday morning.

And, just like that a storm is showing up. And, this storm fits the LRC perfectly. I am confident a winter storm will begin forming around one week from now, but will KC be hit by this storm?

Surface Forecast Valid Sunday Morning, December 12th (One week from Sunday):

Next Weekend's Potential Winter Storm
Next Weekend's Potential Winter Storm

The models are all over the place, as usual, and some of the runs end our snowflake contest.

European Model:

Snow Prediction European Model
F5 Weather

American Model:

American Model Snow Prediction
American Model Snow Prediction

Recent Stories from kshb.com

 

 
 
 

What is this that I am seeing...WHOA. I am rooting for ya bud......awesomeness for ur area!!!!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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In the "fwiw dept" I see Chicago had a Top-10 driest November. Also noticed another season that happened which went on to be one of the most legendary winters for the OHV. So, maybe there's some hope for January rocking.

image.png.8a120cf00c9d0b019350c042af890bc3.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The latest Euro Seasonal suggests "winter cancel" except for maybe our farthest north members...the model is seeing absolutely ZERO blocking up in Eastern Canada/Greenland where this year's LRC has shown blocking.  Hmmm, is one to believe this to be true?  Does the model have a clue???  

 

5.png

 

 

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@Toma little confirmation from Gary on the cycle length this morning in his blog.  Looks like teleconnections have screwed KC once again.

We have now had no rain or snow for 21 days in a row. Today will make that streak reach 22 days in a row. The positive AO is likely the biggest reason why this next storm will likely miss Kansas City. When this part of the pattern cycled through in October, this next storm was quite wet. So, let's see if there is a trend back into a more functional storm around Saturday. For now, we are going with the trend towards the weaker storm; the faster moving storm; and likely more wind and no rain or snow.

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8 hours ago, FV-Mike said:

Maybe this means the GL region is due for a Blizzard!

264998404_480622433422705_895438608131903661_n.thumb.jpg.be09dbc98ee6e41296501ae34548c7c7.jpg

Lol @ SEMI. Almost 11 years now (GHD-1). I've moved to one of the most difficult regions to score a true bliz. On par with SWMO. Kinda pathetic when SOH beats you! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Interestingly, while winters have had less snow and cold in recent years/decades we have also had less severe weather in the spring in MBY. We get some heavy rain producers, but no real extreme severe weather. I assume this is because we don't have the clash of cold and warm air masses like we used to. Regarding snow, our last official snowfall greater than 6" occurred nearly 8 years ago on Feb 4, 2014.

I never had a problem with our climate possibly entering a warmer period as the climate has warmed and cooled over Earth's history. I have always rejected the political explanations for it...and still do.

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

Interestingly, while winters have had less snow and cold in recent years/decades we have also had less severe weather in the spring in MBY. We get some heavy rain producers, but no real extreme severe weather. I assume this is because we don't have the clash of cold and warm air masses like we used to. Regarding snow, our last official snowfall greater than 6" occurred nearly 8 years ago on Feb 4, 2014.

I never had a problem with our climate possibly entering a warmer period as the climate has warmed and cooled over Earth's history. I have always rejected the political explanations for it...and still do.

8 years without a snowfall greater than 6in.  Time for that streak to end!

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Not sure if anyone here has mentioned it but has any of you had a chance to check out John Dee’s Snow Church on you tube yet? I think he does a pretty good job explaining the more technical aspects of what’s driving our weather. He’s extremely western UP/northern MN/WI bias but if you can get past that he does well giving the overall picture for the Midwest also.

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2 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Not sure if anyone here has mentioned it but has any of you had a chance to check out John Dee’s Snow Church on you tube yet? I think he does a pretty good job explaining the more technical aspects of what’s driving our weather. He’s extremely western UP/northern MN/WI bias but if you can get past that he does well giving the overall picture for the Midwest also.

love his insights!

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1FF9FA2A-BC02-4A2F-B690-D663428611E2.thumb.jpeg.aeee14ec15ee6e52dba3db0302e907f4.jpegMy daughters snowmobile has been sitting outside in the back yard for the past 7 days so this gives you a idea of how much snow has fallen this past week around here. It’s warm today though and it’s definitely melting from the warm ground up. I measured about 9” on the warm ground and about 12” on anything elevated off the ground. I’ll be surprised if any of this is around a week from now though with the warmup on the way. 

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On 12/5/2021 at 11:13 AM, FAR_Weather said:

I mean... Snow happens every year in that part of Texas.

Panhandle often sees snow, even if it’s a dusting.   But to bring it to No. Central Tx is a different animal.  
I’d like to see some this year but in truth I’m just expecting some real cold periods.  
 

Also, next week for us will be in the low to mid 70’s then plunging into the high 60’s.  😄  

Is it winter yet?!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like colder weather has more staying power after the midweek period next week and especially towards the end. Nothing brutal, but enough to bring us back to near average December temperatures. Could actually be a little BN normal.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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27 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks like colder weather has more staying power after the midweek period next week and especially towards the end. Nothing brutal, but enough to bring us back to near average December temperatures. Could actually be a little BN normal.

I think we get a January this winter, since it was mostly MIA last season. PP was calling for this Dec to be a transitional month, with winter showing full force in January. Winter sets in a month earlier for NMI, and they are AN in the snowfall dept despite the ups-n-downs. I see The Sault has almost caught up to Gaylord nearing 44" on the season.

For comparison tho to what "can happen" in a legit hard hitting early winter, Traverse is sitting at 16.8" with 2 weeks til Christmas. If memory serves, in both '89 and '95 TC hit the 100" mark by Christmas. And possibly in 2013 as well.

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The updated CPC long range guess for the rest of the winter is now leaning toward a warmer/wetter weather pattern. Here is the December guess

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php

And the JFM guess

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

Boy, hasn't this been the theme for slow starts to Winter's around here...but is there a silver lining that most seasons end up AN in the snow dept.  Notably, 4 out 10 JAN's were big hits and a few FEB's were also good ones.  

1.jpeg

See my post in the Dec thd wrt our lame december snows, and where they've gone.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We’ll have a high of 58 today. No rain in sight.  
 

Christmas will be a bust for us. 
high 78-80.  High humidity ~76% for the week.  Fall isn’t through with the southern plains.  
 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ryan Maue tweeted the new Euro weeklies for January... good for the west and far north, not so much for the central/south/east.

image.thumb.png.1df63f1bed3f8d3330496584def4f34b.png

image.thumb.png.fb0b684fb7c0833cfa4cd49df6e82f36.png

 

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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On 12/20/2021 at 8:55 PM, Hawkeye said:

Ryan Maue tweeted the new Euro weeklies for January... good for the west and far north, not so much for the central/south/east.

image.thumb.png.1df63f1bed3f8d3330496584def4f34b.png

image.thumb.png.fb0b684fb7c0833cfa4cd49df6e82f36.png

 

Not sure why (2) Peeps "liked" this. Looks downright horridly dry, even if marginally cold enough for snow. Everything's displaced north and thus a repeat of most of the last 3 winters.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure why (2) Peeps "liked" this. Looks downright horridly dry, even if marginally cold enough for snow. Everything's displaced north and thus a repeat of most of the last 3 winters.

You should have seen the previous run...it was worse but the trend is much better overall...

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Dr. Cohen seems to be a bit more optimistic for the rest of winter...

Quote

Plain Language Summary

As I have been discussing, I feel that the atmosphere has approached a fork in the road for the winter.  The first path includes a brief colder period as we close out the year and a resumption of relatively milder weather will return early in the new Year.  The second path means the overall mild winter is mostly winding down and much of the remainder of the winter will feature colder weather.  Based on my own diagnosis, I feel that the atmosphere has made a step towards the colder solution.

 

You can read his latest blog here: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

My reading of his Wednesday update is that he is less optimistic than he was on Monday.  In fact, much of it seems downright pessimistic if you like snow and cold  and you're anywhere but the northwestern part of our forum.  Am I misreading it?  

Agreed. Not sure I get the same warm cold fuzzy from his msg.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The recent Euro Weeklies appear to be heading in the right direction for many of us in and around the I-80 corridor and towards the Lower Lakes.  If these trends can continue, JAN should make up for the lackluster DEC...the STJ is going to be enfueguo...just need this cold to press some more in future runs that can include many more members on here to bring smiles upon their faces.

1.gif

 

5.png

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4 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Since 2000, the past 22 years, Detroit has had 1 top 20 coldest December and 7 top 20 warmest Decembers, I’m no climatologist but I sense a pattern here 😁

How much is urban sprawl? Where is thermometer  located? Urban heat  island? Ive seen that in many locations. Not just usa, 100s of reporting  stations.

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4 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

How much is urban sprawl? Where is thermometer  located? Urban heat  island? Ive seen that in many locations. Not just usa, 100s of reporting  stations.

As far as urban sprawl I believe Detroit has lost population in the past 20 years, as far as the thermometer location I have no idea, maybe from city airport out to metro airport but that’s just a guess on my part. 

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Dr. Cohen provided his insights on the status of the Polar Vortex and what he believes will be more or less the theme over the coming weeks.

https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

 

In summary, he doesn't believe that a major SSW disruption will happen this season.  This is something I personally predicted about a month ago based on gut feeling and the behavior of the PV this season.  A more volatile PV is to be expected with multiple stretched PV intrusions similar to what the '13-'14 winter season show cased.  It's also nice to hear that this upcoming colder pattern could have legs into FEB.  I did not know this, but he has an in-house machine learning model that picked up on the colder JAN over a couple weeks ago which is coming into fruition.  It is now showing that this pattern may last into FEB as it locks into place.  Very interesting stuff.

 

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I remember watching a Jim Flowers video back in October or November where he predicted winter snowfall.  He said the 2nd year in a La Nina is usually less snow than the previous year.  So far he is spot on.  We are way below last years record amounts.  I think we are behind our normal snowfall as well to this point.  Just hard to get a few good winters in row to line up around here.  Hopefully things will change, but right now It's not looking good.

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Jim posted an update recently and said he thinks February will be way above normal here as well, and basically snowfall for the season up through January will go a long way to determining if we have even a normal snowfall season. However, analogs used for this winter show him that we could be in for a cooler summer.

We're at 4" from the 2x it's snowed so far this winter, looks like 6" after the 3rd time it's snowed and then it looks mainly dry and warm to end the month of January for basically everywhere west of the Missouri River.

Not sure what the normal is here, but saw a stat that Sioux City normally has had 11 days of snowfall by now and they are also at 2 days of snowfall this season. Given the extreme record heat last month for the entire country, above normal November at least for eastern Nebraska, and a colder but drier January thus far, yet another epic winter forecast looks to bust.

I can already guess the forecast for next winter though when that thread gets started this summer....

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