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Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion


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55 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Local mets say MJO is going into phase 4, so no big cold outbreaks yet for here.   

Which I'm fine with. Seasonable temps like I'm set to see are exactly what the doctor ordered. 

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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It is looking more likely that the CFS model painted a good LR indication that Winter shall be coming out of the gates quite fast this year across not only Canada/Alaska but also across Russia/Siberia.

gfs_asnow_asia_65.png

 

"Oh Canada"....#thinksnow....The "Cascades of Canada" sure lookin' good...won't be long till our nations "Rockies" get their share of legit snows later this month.

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The JMA weeklies came in today and are starting to come in range of the initial period where the sun sets across the North Pole and a glimpse of what the new LRC may begin to look like way up north before it begins to settle down farther south across the mid latitudes.  The Week 3-4 forecast is showing a NE PAC ridge, Eastern Canada Ridge and a stout W Canada trough.  I foresee this pattern delivering early snows for the inter-mountain west and sparking an active pattern for the later half of the month.

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Temp/Precip pattern... 

Y202109.D0812_gl2.png

 

Look at the AN precip pattern across all of Canada and into the northern half of our Sub.  All signs point towards Canada filling up with Snow and I would not be surprised if a few of our northern members see their 1st flakes by months end.

 

Y202109.D0812_gl0.png

 

The SST anomaly map really firing up the NE PAC while the equatorial PAC is showing the La Nina growing...

 

Y202109.D0812_gls.png

 

The GEFS LR snowfall map is quite impressive into mid Oct...#buildtheglacier

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The Euro weeklies from last night are flashing one of the bigger signals for possible snows across the central/north Sub come mid/late Oct.  I'm intrigued by how far south the model is suggesting possible snows down into NM.  I don't recall seeing maps like these in recent years where it shows snows falling in the SW in October at this range.  Are you mirroring what I've been thinking??  I'm digging the snowy Rockies...I got a good feeling this season will produce a robust ski season for the resorts, even into Cali where they are hurting for moisture.  I hope Lake Tahoe gets in on the moisture come later this month of Sept to put out those fires.

 

1.png

 

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As promised, I'll post the latest maps off the JMA seasonal that came in the other day.  What I find interesting, is the model agreement between the CFSv2 and JMA for the month of October.  The trough near AK/NW C.A. signalling winter will hit it off quickly up that way while farther south down into the U.S. a warmer pattern may be in the cards next month.

 

1.png

 

Temp...overall a slightly AN temp pattern from the SW into the W GL's region while a hint of normal temps near the PAC NW and SE CONUS.

 

Y202109.D0800_gl2.png

Precip...it appears like a normal precip pattern across the eastern 2/3rd's of the nation but a wetter potential pattern across the west coast and So Cal??  That would be very interesting if this ends up being right and nature delivering moisture into So Cal.

Y202109.D0800_gl0.png

 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_1.png

 

As we approach November, I think the model is signalling major blocking patterns in and around North America.  This, IMO, is a huge factor going forward for many reasons as it will solidify the LRC pattern that will undoubtedly favor a Greenland Block and -AO.  Notice the trough that is targeting the PAC NW/W Coast and the big block in eastern Canada.  This is fantastic signal for a significant storm train to inundate the west/SW which eventually make it into our Sub Forum.  It's no surprise that the precip pattern is showing a very large area of AN precip from the west into the eastern CONUS.

2.png

 

Temp/Precip...

Y202109.D0800_gl2.png

 

Precip....the W PAC signal is one to watch in the month of November as it could deliver some powerful late season Typhoons.  I remember one year when Typhoon Nuri tracked up near East Asia into the Aleutian Islands that was a big part to the pattern in mid November back in 2014.  We could very well see something similar.  Notice the trough near Japan and using the East Asian rule, this is indicative of stormier pattern for the eastern CONUS.

Typhoon Nuri's track...

275px-Nuri_2014_track.png

 

Y202109.D0800_gl0.png

 

Finally, the time of year when we all want to see cold air and snow falling during the holiday season that has been lacking in recent years.  Well, if the JMA is right, I think there will be smiles on peoples faces.  I mean, you can't script this any better after looking at the 500mb pattern.  #eyecandy

3.png

 

Temp/Precip...let's hope this holds....no warmth whatsoever across the CONUS (the model does not really "see" cold at this distance).

 

Y202109.D0800_gl2.png

 

Precip...nearly the entire Sub Forum has AN precip.  Like I've said before, I got a great feeling that due to what has transpired here in the SW during this years Monsoon season, I strongly believe Nature will be delivering many storms out this way in the Fall/Winter.  These maps are mirroring what I think will transpire.  Overall, there will be some warmer periods in Oct/Nov but the general them is for a very active storm track and then possibly a big flip into Winter sometime in Nov or early Dec.  I'm really getting excited and antsy to start seeing storms track into the west, esp if the high lat blocking takes over and also the big ticket item...what happens in the Strat?  Early disruption like the models have been suggesting over the past couple months?  Lot's to decipher over the coming weeks.

Y202109.D0800_gl0.png

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For a few months in a row, the top climate models continue to show agreement for the start of met Winter.  I'm getting a bit excited to see the JMA, Euro and UKMET all showing an eastern CONUS trough.  This could be the fast start to winter we have all been waiting for in a long time.  Maps Courtesy @BenNoll

 

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Here's another map off the UKMET-Euro blend for Sep-Nov showing a hint of a corridor of cooler anomalies setting up across the central CONUS.  I'm paying close attn way up near Alaska/W Canada where you can sorta see where I expect our early season cold to brew and make its way south into the lower 48.  This is a classic La Nina set up esp when you take into consideration the high lat blocking.

 

 

Image

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I see there is a new look to the CPC’s long range guess maps. The maps have a little different look to them but the long range guess if mostly the same. Here is their guess for October
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
and their new look updated long range guess for the rest of the fall season.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
and for the upcoming meteorological winter
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

I see there is a new look to the CPC’s long range guess maps. The maps have a little different look to them but the long range guess if mostly the same. Here is their guess for October
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php
and their new look updated long range guess for the rest of the fall season.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
and for the upcoming meteorological winter
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3

Lol. Same guesses as every past winter season ever.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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16 hours ago, Tom said:

WxBell going all in on a cold December and Joe D's statistical agrees...hellova start to Winter???

1.png

And the Northeast will get LOTS and LOTS of snow! Like, 12.3910 METERS!

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I've read several tweets from @BenNoll's comments regarding the potential for both a significant and early SSW event to occur over the N.H.  This is interesting, for several reasons, but none  moreso than the LR signal from an ensemble mean of climate models suggesting this could be the 2nd (if not earliest) SSW event in recorded history.  Low Solar playing a role???  The high lat blocking which is to immerse the Arctic region later in early October is likely a very big clue.  Not to mention, but look what is transpiring right now over the N Pole/Alaska as the 10mb/30mb upper atmospheric warming already brewing.

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

Northern Hemisphere 30 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

Interesting commentary from him...

Quote
 
 
December 2021: this forecast of stratospheric temperature anomalies is pretty unusual Red circle How unusual? The zonal mean anomaly between 60-90˚N is the *2nd warmest* predicted by (from September) compared to all years from 1993-2020.

 

 

1.jpg

 

How could you NOT be excited about this winter season???  The LR clues and signals are growing stronger as we get closer in time.  Speaking of which, the CFSv2 continues to trend with abundant high lat blocking when just a few weeks ago the signal was very weak.  I made a comment the other day where the model is playing catch up it seems as it is likely "seeing" the potentially historic SSW event.  

 

2.gif2.gif

As I digest more data that continues to perk my interest for how this Autumn/Winter season ends up becoming, all you have to do is see what nature has already shown us.  In my opinion, one aspect of what has transpired here in Arizona and the SW this Monsoon season is quite fascinating.  We have seen an overwhelming amount of precip and I don't see this suddenly ending.  In fact, I do strongly believe it will continue into October.  Patterns like these don't just suddenly stop as I feel its more of a longer term trend.  The fact that we are going to see such an enormous amount of blocking this coming cold season it is very conceivable that this will drive the jet stream farther south and become a factor in the SW U.S.  Speaking of which, the CFSv2 is trending in a much wetter signal for the west coast and even down into So Cal!  I love it...

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.202110.gif

 

So, here we are in the middle of Sept with so much to look forward to as a winter wx enthusiast...are the models eye candy to look at?  Yes...am I getting my hopes up to early???  Ehh, possibly....but when you see such a profound agreement in the modeling and not the conflicting signals you typically see at this range from the models you gotta get a bit excited, right??

 

Finally, I'll end this post with this comment that came from Dr. Cohen.  If you recall, I've made several posts on the predicted pattern the CFS was indicating over near Siberia/Russia for this month into Oct.  Well, it appears that both of us are on the same page...

Quote
 
 
Not much #snow in #Siberia currently but predicted ridging/high pressure in the Barents-Kara Seas will favor downstream troughing/low pressure across Siberia for the remainder of September conducive to a possibly an early and rapid expansion of snow cover across Siberia.

5.jpg

 

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Jim Flowers posted this video yesterday. He is showing a pattern change by mid October with much cooler air, although he thinks the model is seeing it as "too quick". He also mentions '08-09' as his preferred analog year for this upcoming Winter.

https://www.facebook.com/148018328718825/posts/1821440708043237/

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This is quite interesting as I found another potential clue to how the new LRC pattern could be setting up.  In a previous post, I posted a map from Ben Noll that showed in similar years that had a blockbuster SSW event in December, it lead to a stout LR signal for December of an active eastern/southern CONUS storm track.

 

1.jpg

 

Yet again, my intuition drew me to look at last night's 0z EPS Northern Hemispheric 500mb pattern.  I usually don't look at this particular map but this morning I was intrigued to do so.  Call me crazy, but do you see the similarities for the opening week of October???  My goodness, it's almost a carbon copy...East Asian Storm Track, Gulf of Alaska LP, Massive Hudson Bay Block, Southern Stream storm track that connects all the way across the "pond" into Europe.  Are you teasing me???  Man, this is the kinda stuff that gets me fired up and excited to see how Autumn sets up. 

3.gif

 

How about the 0z GEFS???  It's also showing a similar set up...

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_51.png

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

Yeah I'm fully expecting a spike of 90s in early October especially if this no rain trend continues 

Not at all uncommon around here when things dry out and the dew tanks.  I'm seeing several days of mid 80's already starting Sunday through the middle of next week.  Kind of gotten used to these 60's and 70's for highs to be honest.

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Breezy like the Plains out there this evening

image.png.42f0cb30e45925a292ca03cbcac935e0.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Looks like we’ll make a run at 90 Sun-Tues.

I swear there were claims of a fast start to fall….

Could be pushing 95 at LNK. The past few days have been nice, but this is the point of the year where we should have consistently nice days. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see the first snowflakes within the next 30 days lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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While combing through data this morning, I found an interesting 10mb forecast map off the CFS model for the month of Oct.  Coincidentally, when I took a gander at the current 10mb strat animation it is very clear that both maps mirror each other.  This is a big LR clue.  In fact, it is almost an exact match to the location of where the Euro/UKIE and other climate models show a significant SSW event during the month of Dec.  

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Nearly identical warming is happening in the animation below at 10mb....let's see how much this grows/expands as we head into Oct.  Using this info as guidance, along with the BSR, I anticipate the models to show more ridging in the NE PAC/NW NAMER region towards the middle part of Oct.  Will there be a significant model flip towards the 2nd half of Oct???  To early to say, but there is a LR signal that the later part of Oct could turn very cold.

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

When I was shopping at the grocery store a couple weeks ago in AZ, I happened to come across the Farmers Almanac and took a peak at their winter forecast and it certainly did look really wintry for a large part of the nation, esp the MW/GL's region.  It's rather encouraging to see them dub this coming winter "The Season of Shivers"...time will tell...

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48 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The weather pattern for the first week of October looks to be disorganized but possibly wet. I am curious to see how something like this will play out this winter I have a feeling it will be warm.

 

image.thumb.png.d3e00b1361729a6f73f5f91085513306.png

From what I've learned in years past, the surface pressure pattern in the warmer parts of the early Autumn season don't necessarily mean it will be warm in the Winter.  It usually is the opposite unless there is zero high lat blocking to dislodge colder air in the mid lats.  For instance, looking at the same time stamp as your map above, look at the pressure pattern in the northern latitudes.  This, to me, signals colder air would bleed south once it cycles back in Dec.  In the summer, this would have an opposite effect and Canada should be blow torch hot as well as the inter-mountain west/Upper MW.  I'm just thinking out loud here but I do like the fact that there isn't a raging jet blasting into the west which pumps the ridge over our Sub.  Systems are showing signs of tracking into Cali and not just up farther north into the PAC NW during this opening week or so of Oct.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_45.png

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

From what I've learned in years past, the surface pressure pattern in the warmer parts of the early Autumn season don't necessarily mean it will be warm in the Winter.  It usually is the opposite unless there is zero high lat blocking to dislodge colder air in the mid lats.  For instance, looking at the same time stamp as your map above, look at the pressure pattern in the northern latitudes.  This, to me, signals colder air would bleed south once it cycles back in Dec.  In the summer, this would have an opposite effect and Canada should be blow torch hot as well as the inter-mountain west/Upper MW.  I'm just thinking out loud here but I do like the fact that there isn't a raging jet blasting into the west which pumps the ridge over our Sub.  Systems are showing signs of tracking into Cali and not just up farther north into the PAC NW during this opening week or so of Oct.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_45.png

That makes since and with the cold air bleeding south maybe we can get some phasing going on.

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On 9/21/2021 at 1:12 PM, james1976 said:

Jim Flowers posted this video yesterday. He is showing a pattern change by mid October with much cooler air, although he thinks the model is seeing it as "too quick". He also mentions '08-09' as his preferred analog year for this upcoming Winter.

https://www.facebook.com/148018328718825/posts/1821440708043237/

Well of course. Check out the TOP seasonal snowfalls for that winter and the ones either side of it. Not another below avg season please...lol (avg=17")

07-08: 32.6"

08-09: 10.6"

09-10: 40.7"

 

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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14 hours ago, Clinton said:

The weather pattern for the first week of October looks to be disorganized but possibly wet. I am curious to see how something like this will play out this winter I have a feeling it will be warm.

 

image.thumb.png.d3e00b1361729a6f73f5f91085513306.png

That ridge migrates north and west after Tsunami season plus seasonal changes scrambles the wavelengths.

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If Flowers is wrong and that shows up in October instead of later into late month/November. This winter will be lit.

Say Oct 10 vs Nov 1...

Its not much of a difference to some but it will be important on this southern flank if the cold shield (should we have one). It could add a second strong cold air mass to our overall pattern in late winter instead of wasting it later into March.

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52 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Can we just have winter from DEC-FEB and be done with it?  

Did you mean February-April? I think you meant February-April. Let's go with February-April.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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2 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

I noticed that the CPC's Dec-Feb guidance pushed the warmer temps further north by about 400 miles compared to the previous few runs. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/t.gif

 

Kinda strange with a strong La Nina expected 

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CPC loves to say it's going to be hotter than it is. Regardless of what you think about global warming, it's obvious they are not being good scientists and they tend to let their biases show.

But I am enjoying this current blow torch. I would much rather see it warm right now so I can still enjoy the lake without having to wear a 6mm wetsuit and then have the switch flip to an early and cold winter. My ideal fall is nice and warm until the beginning of November, and then we get the polar vortex to stop by and give us a nice 48 hour stretch of temps under 28 so they can make snow.

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@gimmesnowI agree with you. My ideal October through 2nd week of November weather is dry and above normal temps, then a gradual return to averages by Thanksgiving.  After Thanksgiving nature can drop the hammer of unending snow and cold (with emphasis on the snow) until April.

2018 and 2020 Octobers were cold and miserable here.  2019 was endless rain.  The next few weeks look like my kind of October weather. 

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2 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

CPC loves to say it's going to be hotter than it is. Regardless of what you think about global warming, it's obvious they are not being good scientists and they tend to let their biases show.

But I am enjoying this current blow torch. I would much rather see it warm right now so I can still enjoy the lake without having to wear a 6mm wetsuit and then have the switch flip to an early and cold winter. My ideal fall is nice and warm until the beginning of November, and then we get the polar vortex to stop by and give us a nice 48 hour stretch of temps under 28 so they can make snow.

 

38 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

@gimmesnowI agree with you. My ideal October through 2nd week of November weather is dry and above normal temps, then a gradual return to averages by Thanksgiving.  After Thanksgiving nature can drop the hammer of unending snow and cold (with emphasis on the snow) until April.

2018 and 2020 Octobers were cold and miserable here, the next few weeks look like my kind of October weather. 

I don't completely disagree with this.  And having lived in Minnesota for a few years, I can see why you folks up north appreciate a warm fall.  But a warm fall down here feels almost like summer.  I was ready for summer to end several weeks ago.  But it just keeps hanging on . . . .  But as long as it doesn't last into winter, I suppose it's ok. 

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Here is Accuweather's take on the Winter season...it sounds like they are onboard for an active and cold winter for the northern half of our Sub.  Let's not forget those in the deep south as Pastelok is predicting the worse of the winter for those down south around @Andie @OKwx2k4 regions.  I gotta good feeling @Beltrami Island @FAR_Weather are going to pay dividends this season.  That goes for pretty much all of us across the GL's/MW.  As always, we shall see what nature delivers.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/accuweathers-2021-2022-us-winter-forecast/1022887

 

Winter-2021-2022-Highlights.jpg?w=632

 

Snowfall...

Snow-forecast-winter-2021-2022.png?w=632

 

Temp...

December-2021-February-2022-Temperature-

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It does look like Okla/Tx will see Part 2 of last winters “taste”.  Last winter was just winding up for the pitch. The bitter cold of the late 80’s are revisiting.  We had deep cold, snow and ice. Bundle up!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Even if you get a favorable setup for winter for your region, there are going to be hot and screw zones.  Last winter the Des Moines to Cedar Rapids corridor was dumped on repeatedly while Mason City couldn't buy a flake.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Even if you get a favorable setup for winter for you region, there are going to be hot and screw zones.  Last winter the Des Moines to Cedar Rapids corridor was dumped on repeatedly while Mason City couldn't buy a flake.

True that.  KC was below average in snowfall last year.  Places north and south of us ended up above average.  

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Dr. Cohen

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Also, now that the summer is over, I turn my attention much more closely to surface boundary conditions in the Arctic.  The sea ice annual minimum was reached two weeks ago at 4.72 million squared kilometers according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ (see Figure ii).  The sea ice extent minimum is above the past two years and more in line with the years 2015-2018.  Sea ice is near normal on the North Pacific side of the Arctic and well below normal on the Eurasian to North Atlantic side of the Arctic.  I think this is an interesting anomaly pattern that is conducive to perturb the polar vortex (PV) with below normal sea ice weighted towards the North Atlantic side of the Arctic most favorable for perturbing the PV

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 35.7"  Largest Storm: 5.6" (2/2-3)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 2.5 Jan: 8.4 Feb: 12.3 Mar: 3.2 Apr: 1.6

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Going back to 1980, Kansas City has had 13 winters with snowfall above 23 inches (about 5 inches above normal).  October temps were below average in 8 of those winters.  In the five "snowy" winters with above average October temps, the temps generally were just barely above average, with October 2007 being an exception: 

October 1983 -- +0.7

October 1984 -- +0.4

October 1992 -- +0.1

October 2007 -- +3.2

October 2010 -- +2.2

Since 1980,  4 of the 5 winters with the least snow had above average temps in October.  But only one was significant. 

October 1994 -- +1.1

October 2011 -- +1.9

October 2015 -- +2.0

October 2016 -- +5.4

October 2017 -- -6.5

So since 1980, generally speaking, if you want to see a significantly snowy winter in KC, you're hoping for below average (or at least not above average) temps in October.  Typical caveat that nothing is a sure thing.   Also, in taking a look at some other Octobers, having cold Octobers definitely does not guaranty a snowy winter.  October 2002 being a good example of a cold October with low snowfall during the following winter. 

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7 hours ago, someweatherdude said:

Going back to 1980, Kansas City has had 13 winters with snowfall above 23 inches (about 5 inches above normal).  October temps were below average in 8 of those winters.  In the five "snowy" winters with above average October temps, the temps generally were just barely above average, with October 2007 being an exception: 

October 1983 -- +0.7

October 1984 -- +0.4

October 1992 -- +0.1

October 2007 -- +3.2

October 2010 -- +2.2

Since 1980,  4 of the 5 winters with the least snow had above average temps in October.  But only one was significant. 

October 1994 -- +1.1

October 2011 -- +1.9

October 2015 -- +2.0

October 2016 -- +5.4

October 2017 -- -6.5

So since 1980, generally speaking, if you want to see a significantly snowy winter in KC, you're hoping for below average (or at least not above average) temps in October.  Typical caveat that nothing is a sure thing.   Also, in taking a look at some other Octobers, having cold Octobers definitely does not guaranty a snowy winter.  October 2002 being a good example of a cold October with low snowfall during the following winter. 

There are some signs this October will have above average temps and above average peecip. How has that translated in the past for KC?

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The weekend rain for Texas evaporated.  So much for that forecast.  
I did catch 3” Thursday night in 30 minutes. An amazing sight.  You could hardly breath the rain was so heavy.   
If this is a sample of winter’s personality down here it’s lock and load time boys and girls! 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Not only do the Euro Weeklies come out later this afternoon but I believe the new Euro seasonal will be issued as well.  I also read the ECMWF will have a big update in the model later this month.  With that being said, I'm looking for a trend in the weeklies to show a significant trough to develop post 25th of this month across the eastern Sub.  I just went through some LR data and the signal that appears to be growing is becoming more conclusive to me that the pattern overall across N.A. will go through a dramatic shift.  Let's see if I'm right about this.  

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WxBells updated Winter outlook

This is not that dissimilar to last year - and with good reason. It is based on a set of analogs that includes last year. We have also incorporated two new analogs, 2018-19 and 2013-14, due to Joe D'Aleo's research.

The analogs that provide the foundation are the winters of 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, and 2020-21. The commonality of these include:

  1. Colder than average Mays preceding the period across much of the nation.
  2. A high amplitude MJO in the preceding spring, which carried into the hurricane season. Cold phase MJO springs usually have big U.S. impact seasons behind them, and that pattern carries into an early winter correlation.
  3. Summer SSTs and hurricane season activity, which signals the tendency for Greenland blocking in winter (especially early).

 

November_2021_March_2022_Forecast.png

Snowfall_Forecast_Winter_2021_22.png

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33 minutes ago, Clinton said:

WxBells updated Winter outlook

This is not that dissimilar to last year - and with good reason. It is based on a set of analogs that includes last year. We have also incorporated two new analogs, 2018-19 and 2013-14, due to Joe D'Aleo's research.

The analogs that provide the foundation are the winters of 2003-04, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2017-18, and 2020-21. The commonality of these include:

  1. Colder than average Mays preceding the period across much of the nation.
  2. A high amplitude MJO in the preceding spring, which carried into the hurricane season. Cold phase MJO springs usually have big U.S. impact seasons behind them, and that pattern carries into an early winter correlation.
  3. Summer SSTs and hurricane season activity, which signals the tendency for Greenland blocking in winter (especially early).

 

November_2021_March_2022_Forecast.png

Snowfall_Forecast_Winter_2021_22.png

Interesting.  I suppose Gary L. would say that any analysis that relies on what happened during the preceding spring and summer is worthless because the global pattern resets in October.    How do people feel about using analogs to predict future weather.  I know it's a common tool.  Does it work? 

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  • Tom changed the title to Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion
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