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Autumn & Winter 2021-22 Observations and Discussion


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31 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

The closer we get to meteorological winter, the less hopeful I am about a quick start to it.  The cold just doesn't seem to be there this year, at least for those of us in the central part of the sub. The pattern seems to be dominated by huge warm ups and relatively mild cold shots rather than the other way around.  Maybe the typical LES locations and way up north will enjoy real winter weather.  But for those of us who need cold and precip to combine at just the right time, I think we may struggling this year to get the first half of that equation going.  I hope I'm wrong.  I'd love to be wrong!

You're not wrong.  It just seems that it's going to be a roller coaster winter.  All we need is one good set up.  But the true cold artic air might have to wait until after the new year.  

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From PP at Accu-WX. Some of the graphics are the same from Sept (later ones are updated)- but the text is mostly new.

 

Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
Winter update

Risks:

1. I am concerned that our December change of lowering temperatures in the East may have been too quick. There is a chance that a milder period in the middle and perhaps later part of the month could overtake any cold at the very start and end of the month.

2. We may need to take temperatures up in southwestern Texas and more so in the Southwest.590x336_09161936_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.35.24-pm.png590x334_09162022_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.34.13-pm.png590x332_11100214_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-8.57.37-pm.png

1. As was expected, the stormy period started early in the West with heavy snow in the Cascades and northern Rockies in early October, then a big storm for Northern California. The storm track will shift throughout the winter season and can lead to precipitation near or just above normal overall.

2. Overall, this winter can be colder than the last seven years for the United States. A weaker polar vortex and negative phases of the EPO and NAO at times will force colder air through North America. A fast-growing snowpack across Canada in late fall and early winter will contribute to more widespread cold events, especially for the Midwest, Plains and interior Northwest.

3. An active northern storm track, compliments of La Nina, will extend from the Northwest to the Northeast this winter with several snow and ice events. Active periods of weather will escalate holiday shipping delays in addition to the already non-weather related delays through early January.

4. Weak-to-moderate La Nina may contribute to a higher frequency of northern storm events, but other signals throughout the winter season will once again cause changes in the storm track and cold surges (ex. polar vortex, high-latitude blocking and upper high pressure northeastern Pacific resulting in an amplified pattern).

5. The Southwest drought will hold. Wildfire season is nearly over for the entire nation with the exception of Southern California and western Arizona. The eastern Four Corners region is running behind schedule to last year's early winter surge. We expect a few storms again in this region, mainly across Colorado and Utah. New Mexico and Arizona can be drier than last winter.

6. Overall, the ski areas in the West and East will average good to excellent. The changing storm tracks should widen the coverage of snowpack this winter compared to other years.

7. The Southeast can turn drier and milder in February, perhaps an early growing start; watch for early buds on dormant trees and plants.

8. Typically, with La Nina, the Pacific Northwest is wet and snowy. This winter’s results will average near to above normal. Upper high pressure that forms over the northeastern Pacific can alter storm tracks throughout the winter, increasing and decreasing intensity of storms for any given area.

9. Surface water temperatures over all five Great Lakes are running above normal. There can be surges of colder air in November and December leading to brief periods of lake-effect snow. Later in December, January and perhaps extending into February, lake-effect snow can be heavier and more widespread.

Teleconnections:

ENSO – We are expecting a borderline weak-to-moderate La Nina, peaking in late December or early January. This can lead to stronger storms moving across the Northwest to the Midwest; it will be milder and drier across the southern tier of the nation.

QBO/SOLAR – Solar output will be close to minimum once again this winter. A negative QBO in the lower stratosphere and solar minimum can favor sudden stratospheric warming events early and late, and a weaker stratospheric polar vortex overall. In addition, as the easterly winds drift down into the troposphere, we can see an increase in high-latitude blocking, but the easterlies have been slow lowering through the stratosphere.

POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTION – An early weakening of the polar vortex will lead to an amplified pattern later this week. The polar vortex will have trouble maintaining strength over the pole through December, which means more cold surges for midlatitudes. Some analogs are showing a major disruption can occur late January or February, but maybe more likely later in February or March.

PDO – The PDO has strengthened in the past month and will remain strong and a significant factor this winter season. The warmest SST anomalies will be south of the Gulf of Alaska and north of Hawaii with colder water from the northeastern Pacific, along the West coast and southeast of Hawaii. A mean upper high pressure will be farther away from the West Coast most of the winter. The split in the overall jet stream can be influenced and not only bring heavier precipitation from the Northwest to western Canada, but also allow periods of heavier rain and snow to shift south into central and Northern California with a chance at Southern California as well.

MARINE HEAT WAVE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST: Sea-surface water temperature anomalies are running 3-6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from Delaware to Maine. This can influence temperatures in December, holding back consistent cold weather and also precipitation type, more rain or mixed precipitation southern areas. This area can also influence the intensity of bigger storms, higher precipitation rates and potential nor'easter (already one so far).

EPO and NAO: These two teleconnections can be hard to predict, but the modeling shows occasional negative phases of both. When in line with polar disruptions it can lead to amplified patterns and significant cold swings for areas of the country.

Here is the month-to-month European forecast and interpretation of teleconnections.

September update:590x333_11070351_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.46.40-pm.png590x333_11070352_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.47.42-pm.png590x331_09161945_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.45.01-pm.png590x334_10210131_snowoutlook.png

1. Snowfall from the California Sierra to the northwestern Cascades will be heavy at times and spread out throughout the winter season. We are expecting a shifty storm track which leaves lulls in heavier precipitation periods.

2. We continue to favor a weak-to-near moderate La Nina. La Nina will most likely peak in the early part of the winter (around late December) on the border of a stronger weak La Nina, and a weaker moderate La Nina. For this reason we are covering for above-normal snowfall in the Midwest (due to the weaker La Nina side) and near- to above-normal snowfall in the Northwest (due to the moderate La Nina side). An even stronger La Nina would mean much less snow for the Midwest and much more in the Northwest.

3. For the Northeast, there can be a few big storms (two to four nor’easters) creating above-normal snowfall for the interior Northeast. The winter leans toward a few bigger storms rather than higher frequency smaller storms. The storms early can be mainly rain for the big East Coast cities (through November and early December). Chances are greater for snow for this area later in December and January.

4. Ice and snow mixed can fall on a few occasions from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania. This will hold back snowfall amounts, keeping this area near normal for the season. This includes cities like Springfield, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

5. The Great Lakes surface water is running well above normal, especially after the October warm pattern. If this continues through early winter, lake-effect snow is expected to be near normal or just above. There should be available cold combined with high-latitude blocking this winter to produce heavy periods of lake-effect snow spread out through the winter season. Here is a look at the graphs showing each lake. The red is current readings and the blue is the average.590x339_11061536_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.34.51-am.png590x335_09170033_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-8.33.20-pm.png

1. The slopes in central/northeastern Pennsylvania will have some snow in November. There will be a tough hold into December, but more snow is expected late December through February for good skiing.

2. Snow, some icy periods are possible for West Virginia and far southern Pennsylvania resorts. Conditions can be good to poor at times, but mainly good.

3. The interior Northeast already having some snow here in November. Conditions should be excellent mid- and late season, either by big snow events or enough cold for snowmaking.

4. We are expecting good-to-excellent conditions for most of the West through April. Even Northern California should do well with occasional southern slides in the storm track leading to heavy snow events.590x331_11060052_november-december-2021-winter-transition.jpg590x331_09250354_screen-shot-2021-09-24-at-11.54.07-pm.png

1. With fewer cold snaps, there will be less energy demand in the East compared to the middle of the nation, especially mid-Atlantic on south. A mean storm track will head toward the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. There is a low chance for an early freeze this month in central Florida.

2. There is a chance for flooding and strong or drenching thunderstorms across the Tennessee/Ohio valleys and central Appalachians with a couple of cold fronts.

3. Middle of the nation will have an active December with an early start to the snowpack for the Foothills, Dakotas and Upper Midwest; a couple of very cold air masses will run down the Plains, and it will be much colder than 2020 (This may be a result of an SSW event).

4. Wildfires will persist in parts of central and Southern California; there will be a smoky sky and bad air quality at times. Temperatures will be very high away from smoke-filled skies.

5. Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected for the Northwest; this is more typical of La Nina. Northern California and Oregon are played dry for now, but there is a chance that it can be wetter.

Overview - If a positive PNA is the dominant signal, then the storm track can be farther east. Warm water temperatures along the East coast could set up a storm track over the Appalachians or interior Northeast rather than the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Warm SSTs can keep up temperatures, especially at night. A positive PNA would support dry conditions in Northern California and Oregon.590x331_09281629_screen-shot-2021-09-28-at-12.28.28-pm.png

1. There will be a very active northern storm track; snow frequency can be high across the northern Rockies to the Northeast. Above-normal snowfall expected for much of this region, especially in January; lake-effect snow intense at times.

2. It will be much colder this January compared to January 2021 for the northern Plains; some areas will be 10-15 degrees colder.

3. A storm track can bring widespread areas of snow to the northern and eastern Rockies, the Ohio Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Ice chances will increase from the mid-Mississippi Valley, across the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley and into parts of the mid-Atlantic.

4. The Southwest should continue to be drier than normal; storms will be less intense in the Northwest with some rain and snow for Northern California and Oregon. Ski areas should do well in the West and Northeast.

5. Coverage of cold in January will heavily depend on snowpack. We are conservative on numbers for now. We can see departures in January 4-8 degrees below normal with a colder source region this year.

6. A storm or two can reach the interior Southwest and southern Plains with the chance for snow or ice leading to disruptive travel. This area may not be as severe as last year's run of storms and cold.

Overview: Forecast models are showing negative EPO with a weak negative NAO. This could lead to a slight west shift in overall pattern and more cold from the Rockies to the Plains, but it will be pulled east at times by the negative NAO. This is the same for the storm track. Still, there is a low chance for a freeze in central Florida, but chances will increase later January into early February.590x334_11100215_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-9.13.49-pm.png

1. The coldest region can be the Dakotas and Upper Midwest in February. A couple of periods of Arctic air will occur south. Temperatures can be even lower than our current forecast.

2. Upper high pressure can back west at times across the Southeast, leading to occasional warming and drier conditions.

3. Temperatures can be 8-12 degrees milder from Kansas to Texas this February compared to February 2021.

4. Drought will remain strong in the Southwest, mainly dry conditions and well above-normal temperature departures.

5. Precipitation will average near normal for the Northwest, some rain and snow, but intensity will be up and down.

6. The mid-Atlantic and New England will be back and forth on temperatures. It could wind up milder in the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, but it comes down to snowpack (more snowpack in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, then colder).

7. The storm track will still be active across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast, with more rain, snow and ice topping over a very active and stormy winter.

Overview: The NAO may swing positive with a faster steering flow across eastern Canada. Any cold surges in the Plains and central Canada move quicker and farther northeast in the East. If snowpack is deep in the Northeast and Ohio Valley, then it can be colder. However, this setup allows the Southeast's upper high pressure to build at times, leading to milder and drier conditions in the Southeast. This also forces the storm track to the north, cutting off Gulf moisture to the East.


[mt]
Posted on Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

From PP at Accu-WX. Some of the graphics are the same from Sept (later ones are updated)- but the text is mostly new.

 

Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
Winter update

Risks:

1. I am concerned that our December change of lowering temperatures in the East may have been too quick. There is a chance that a milder period in the middle and perhaps later part of the month could overtake any cold at the very start and end of the month.

2. We may need to take temperatures up in southwestern Texas and more so in the Southwest.590x336_09161936_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.35.24-pm.png590x334_09162022_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.34.13-pm.png590x332_11100214_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-8.57.37-pm.png

1. As was expected, the stormy period started early in the West with heavy snow in the Cascades and northern Rockies in early October, then a big storm for Northern California. The storm track will shift throughout the winter season and can lead to precipitation near or just above normal overall.

2. Overall, this winter can be colder than the last seven years for the United States. A weaker polar vortex and negative phases of the EPO and NAO at times will force colder air through North America. A fast-growing snowpack across Canada in late fall and early winter will contribute to more widespread cold events, especially for the Midwest, Plains and interior Northwest.

3. An active northern storm track, compliments of La Nina, will extend from the Northwest to the Northeast this winter with several snow and ice events. Active periods of weather will escalate holiday shipping delays in addition to the already non-weather related delays through early January.

4. Weak-to-moderate La Nina may contribute to a higher frequency of northern storm events, but other signals throughout the winter season will once again cause changes in the storm track and cold surges (ex. polar vortex, high-latitude blocking and upper high pressure northeastern Pacific resulting in an amplified pattern).

5. The Southwest drought will hold. Wildfire season is nearly over for the entire nation with the exception of Southern California and western Arizona. The eastern Four Corners region is running behind schedule to last year's early winter surge. We expect a few storms again in this region, mainly across Colorado and Utah. New Mexico and Arizona can be drier than last winter.

6. Overall, the ski areas in the West and East will average good to excellent. The changing storm tracks should widen the coverage of snowpack this winter compared to other years.

7. The Southeast can turn drier and milder in February, perhaps an early growing start; watch for early buds on dormant trees and plants.

8. Typically, with La Nina, the Pacific Northwest is wet and snowy. This winter’s results will average near to above normal. Upper high pressure that forms over the northeastern Pacific can alter storm tracks throughout the winter, increasing and decreasing intensity of storms for any given area.

9. Surface water temperatures over all five Great Lakes are running above normal. There can be surges of colder air in November and December leading to brief periods of lake-effect snow. Later in December, January and perhaps extending into February, lake-effect snow can be heavier and more widespread.

Teleconnections:

ENSO – We are expecting a borderline weak-to-moderate La Nina, peaking in late December or early January. This can lead to stronger storms moving across the Northwest to the Midwest; it will be milder and drier across the southern tier of the nation.

QBO/SOLAR – Solar output will be close to minimum once again this winter. A negative QBO in the lower stratosphere and solar minimum can favor sudden stratospheric warming events early and late, and a weaker stratospheric polar vortex overall. In addition, as the easterly winds drift down into the troposphere, we can see an increase in high-latitude blocking, but the easterlies have been slow lowering through the stratosphere.

POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTION – An early weakening of the polar vortex will lead to an amplified pattern later this week. The polar vortex will have trouble maintaining strength over the pole through December, which means more cold surges for midlatitudes. Some analogs are showing a major disruption can occur late January or February, but maybe more likely later in February or March.

PDO – The PDO has strengthened in the past month and will remain strong and a significant factor this winter season. The warmest SST anomalies will be south of the Gulf of Alaska and north of Hawaii with colder water from the northeastern Pacific, along the West coast and southeast of Hawaii. A mean upper high pressure will be farther away from the West Coast most of the winter. The split in the overall jet stream can be influenced and not only bring heavier precipitation from the Northwest to western Canada, but also allow periods of heavier rain and snow to shift south into central and Northern California with a chance at Southern California as well.

MARINE HEAT WAVE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST: Sea-surface water temperature anomalies are running 3-6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from Delaware to Maine. This can influence temperatures in December, holding back consistent cold weather and also precipitation type, more rain or mixed precipitation southern areas. This area can also influence the intensity of bigger storms, higher precipitation rates and potential nor'easter (already one so far).

EPO and NAO: These two teleconnections can be hard to predict, but the modeling shows occasional negative phases of both. When in line with polar disruptions it can lead to amplified patterns and significant cold swings for areas of the country.

Here is the month-to-month European forecast and interpretation of teleconnections.

September update:590x333_11070351_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.46.40-pm.png590x333_11070352_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.47.42-pm.png590x331_09161945_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.45.01-pm.png590x334_10210131_snowoutlook.png

1. Snowfall from the California Sierra to the northwestern Cascades will be heavy at times and spread out throughout the winter season. We are expecting a shifty storm track which leaves lulls in heavier precipitation periods.

2. We continue to favor a weak-to-near moderate La Nina. La Nina will most likely peak in the early part of the winter (around late December) on the border of a stronger weak La Nina, and a weaker moderate La Nina. For this reason we are covering for above-normal snowfall in the Midwest (due to the weaker La Nina side) and near- to above-normal snowfall in the Northwest (due to the moderate La Nina side). An even stronger La Nina would mean much less snow for the Midwest and much more in the Northwest.

3. For the Northeast, there can be a few big storms (two to four nor’easters) creating above-normal snowfall for the interior Northeast. The winter leans toward a few bigger storms rather than higher frequency smaller storms. The storms early can be mainly rain for the big East Coast cities (through November and early December). Chances are greater for snow for this area later in December and January.

4. Ice and snow mixed can fall on a few occasions from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania. This will hold back snowfall amounts, keeping this area near normal for the season. This includes cities like Springfield, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

5. The Great Lakes surface water is running well above normal, especially after the October warm pattern. If this continues through early winter, lake-effect snow is expected to be near normal or just above. There should be available cold combined with high-latitude blocking this winter to produce heavy periods of lake-effect snow spread out through the winter season. Here is a look at the graphs showing each lake. The red is current readings and the blue is the average.590x339_11061536_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.34.51-am.png590x335_09170033_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-8.33.20-pm.png

1. The slopes in central/northeastern Pennsylvania will have some snow in November. There will be a tough hold into December, but more snow is expected late December through February for good skiing.

2. Snow, some icy periods are possible for West Virginia and far southern Pennsylvania resorts. Conditions can be good to poor at times, but mainly good.

3. The interior Northeast already having some snow here in November. Conditions should be excellent mid- and late season, either by big snow events or enough cold for snowmaking.

4. We are expecting good-to-excellent conditions for most of the West through April. Even Northern California should do well with occasional southern slides in the storm track leading to heavy snow events.590x331_11060052_november-december-2021-winter-transition.jpg590x331_09250354_screen-shot-2021-09-24-at-11.54.07-pm.png

1. With fewer cold snaps, there will be less energy demand in the East compared to the middle of the nation, especially mid-Atlantic on south. A mean storm track will head toward the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. There is a low chance for an early freeze this month in central Florida.

2. There is a chance for flooding and strong or drenching thunderstorms across the Tennessee/Ohio valleys and central Appalachians with a couple of cold fronts.

3. Middle of the nation will have an active December with an early start to the snowpack for the Foothills, Dakotas and Upper Midwest; a couple of very cold air masses will run down the Plains, and it will be much colder than 2020 (This may be a result of an SSW event).

4. Wildfires will persist in parts of central and Southern California; there will be a smoky sky and bad air quality at times. Temperatures will be very high away from smoke-filled skies.

5. Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected for the Northwest; this is more typical of La Nina. Northern California and Oregon are played dry for now, but there is a chance that it can be wetter.

Overview - If a positive PNA is the dominant signal, then the storm track can be farther east. Warm water temperatures along the East coast could set up a storm track over the Appalachians or interior Northeast rather than the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Warm SSTs can keep up temperatures, especially at night. A positive PNA would support dry conditions in Northern California and Oregon.590x331_09281629_screen-shot-2021-09-28-at-12.28.28-pm.png

1. There will be a very active northern storm track; snow frequency can be high across the northern Rockies to the Northeast. Above-normal snowfall expected for much of this region, especially in January; lake-effect snow intense at times.

2. It will be much colder this January compared to January 2021 for the northern Plains; some areas will be 10-15 degrees colder.

3. A storm track can bring widespread areas of snow to the northern and eastern Rockies, the Ohio Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Ice chances will increase from the mid-Mississippi Valley, across the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley and into parts of the mid-Atlantic.

4. The Southwest should continue to be drier than normal; storms will be less intense in the Northwest with some rain and snow for Northern California and Oregon. Ski areas should do well in the West and Northeast.

5. Coverage of cold in January will heavily depend on snowpack. We are conservative on numbers for now. We can see departures in January 4-8 degrees below normal with a colder source region this year.

6. A storm or two can reach the interior Southwest and southern Plains with the chance for snow or ice leading to disruptive travel. This area may not be as severe as last year's run of storms and cold.

Overview: Forecast models are showing negative EPO with a weak negative NAO. This could lead to a slight west shift in overall pattern and more cold from the Rockies to the Plains, but it will be pulled east at times by the negative NAO. This is the same for the storm track. Still, there is a low chance for a freeze in central Florida, but chances will increase later January into early February.590x334_11100215_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-9.13.49-pm.png

1. The coldest region can be the Dakotas and Upper Midwest in February. A couple of periods of Arctic air will occur south. Temperatures can be even lower than our current forecast.

2. Upper high pressure can back west at times across the Southeast, leading to occasional warming and drier conditions.

3. Temperatures can be 8-12 degrees milder from Kansas to Texas this February compared to February 2021.

4. Drought will remain strong in the Southwest, mainly dry conditions and well above-normal temperature departures.

5. Precipitation will average near normal for the Northwest, some rain and snow, but intensity will be up and down.

6. The mid-Atlantic and New England will be back and forth on temperatures. It could wind up milder in the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, but it comes down to snowpack (more snowpack in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, then colder).

7. The storm track will still be active across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast, with more rain, snow and ice topping over a very active and stormy winter.

Overview: The NAO may swing positive with a faster steering flow across eastern Canada. Any cold surges in the Plains and central Canada move quicker and farther northeast in the East. If snowpack is deep in the Northeast and Ohio Valley, then it can be colder. However, this setup allows the Southeast's upper high pressure to build at times, leading to milder and drier conditions in the Southeast. This also forces the storm track to the north, cutting off Gulf moisture to the East.


[mt]
Posted on Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
Permalink

I appreciate anyone who puts the time into these types of long range predictions.  And there's a lot of good stuff in there.  But that first map made me laugh.  That's really just climatology.  Periods of cold and snow in the upper Midwest?  You don't say? 

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14 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

From PP at Accu-WX. Some of the graphics are the same from Sept (later ones are updated)- but the text is mostly new.

 

Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
Winter update

Risks:

1. I am concerned that our December change of lowering temperatures in the East may have been too quick. There is a chance that a milder period in the middle and perhaps later part of the month could overtake any cold at the very start and end of the month.

2. We may need to take temperatures up in southwestern Texas and more so in the Southwest.590x336_09161936_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.35.24-pm.png590x334_09162022_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.34.13-pm.png590x332_11100214_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-8.57.37-pm.png

1. As was expected, the stormy period started early in the West with heavy snow in the Cascades and northern Rockies in early October, then a big storm for Northern California. The storm track will shift throughout the winter season and can lead to precipitation near or just above normal overall.

2. Overall, this winter can be colder than the last seven years for the United States. A weaker polar vortex and negative phases of the EPO and NAO at times will force colder air through North America. A fast-growing snowpack across Canada in late fall and early winter will contribute to more widespread cold events, especially for the Midwest, Plains and interior Northwest.

3. An active northern storm track, compliments of La Nina, will extend from the Northwest to the Northeast this winter with several snow and ice events. Active periods of weather will escalate holiday shipping delays in addition to the already non-weather related delays through early January.

4. Weak-to-moderate La Nina may contribute to a higher frequency of northern storm events, but other signals throughout the winter season will once again cause changes in the storm track and cold surges (ex. polar vortex, high-latitude blocking and upper high pressure northeastern Pacific resulting in an amplified pattern).

5. The Southwest drought will hold. Wildfire season is nearly over for the entire nation with the exception of Southern California and western Arizona. The eastern Four Corners region is running behind schedule to last year's early winter surge. We expect a few storms again in this region, mainly across Colorado and Utah. New Mexico and Arizona can be drier than last winter.

6. Overall, the ski areas in the West and East will average good to excellent. The changing storm tracks should widen the coverage of snowpack this winter compared to other years.

7. The Southeast can turn drier and milder in February, perhaps an early growing start; watch for early buds on dormant trees and plants.

8. Typically, with La Nina, the Pacific Northwest is wet and snowy. This winter’s results will average near to above normal. Upper high pressure that forms over the northeastern Pacific can alter storm tracks throughout the winter, increasing and decreasing intensity of storms for any given area.

9. Surface water temperatures over all five Great Lakes are running above normal. There can be surges of colder air in November and December leading to brief periods of lake-effect snow. Later in December, January and perhaps extending into February, lake-effect snow can be heavier and more widespread.

Teleconnections:

ENSO – We are expecting a borderline weak-to-moderate La Nina, peaking in late December or early January. This can lead to stronger storms moving across the Northwest to the Midwest; it will be milder and drier across the southern tier of the nation.

QBO/SOLAR – Solar output will be close to minimum once again this winter. A negative QBO in the lower stratosphere and solar minimum can favor sudden stratospheric warming events early and late, and a weaker stratospheric polar vortex overall. In addition, as the easterly winds drift down into the troposphere, we can see an increase in high-latitude blocking, but the easterlies have been slow lowering through the stratosphere.

POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTION – An early weakening of the polar vortex will lead to an amplified pattern later this week. The polar vortex will have trouble maintaining strength over the pole through December, which means more cold surges for midlatitudes. Some analogs are showing a major disruption can occur late January or February, but maybe more likely later in February or March.

PDO – The PDO has strengthened in the past month and will remain strong and a significant factor this winter season. The warmest SST anomalies will be south of the Gulf of Alaska and north of Hawaii with colder water from the northeastern Pacific, along the West coast and southeast of Hawaii. A mean upper high pressure will be farther away from the West Coast most of the winter. The split in the overall jet stream can be influenced and not only bring heavier precipitation from the Northwest to western Canada, but also allow periods of heavier rain and snow to shift south into central and Northern California with a chance at Southern California as well.

MARINE HEAT WAVE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST: Sea-surface water temperature anomalies are running 3-6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from Delaware to Maine. This can influence temperatures in December, holding back consistent cold weather and also precipitation type, more rain or mixed precipitation southern areas. This area can also influence the intensity of bigger storms, higher precipitation rates and potential nor'easter (already one so far).

EPO and NAO: These two teleconnections can be hard to predict, but the modeling shows occasional negative phases of both. When in line with polar disruptions it can lead to amplified patterns and significant cold swings for areas of the country.

Here is the month-to-month European forecast and interpretation of teleconnections.

September update:590x333_11070351_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.46.40-pm.png590x333_11070352_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.47.42-pm.png590x331_09161945_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.45.01-pm.png590x334_10210131_snowoutlook.png

1. Snowfall from the California Sierra to the northwestern Cascades will be heavy at times and spread out throughout the winter season. We are expecting a shifty storm track which leaves lulls in heavier precipitation periods.

2. We continue to favor a weak-to-near moderate La Nina. La Nina will most likely peak in the early part of the winter (around late December) on the border of a stronger weak La Nina, and a weaker moderate La Nina. For this reason we are covering for above-normal snowfall in the Midwest (due to the weaker La Nina side) and near- to above-normal snowfall in the Northwest (due to the moderate La Nina side). An even stronger La Nina would mean much less snow for the Midwest and much more in the Northwest.

3. For the Northeast, there can be a few big storms (two to four nor’easters) creating above-normal snowfall for the interior Northeast. The winter leans toward a few bigger storms rather than higher frequency smaller storms. The storms early can be mainly rain for the big East Coast cities (through November and early December). Chances are greater for snow for this area later in December and January.

4. Ice and snow mixed can fall on a few occasions from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania. This will hold back snowfall amounts, keeping this area near normal for the season. This includes cities like Springfield, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

5. The Great Lakes surface water is running well above normal, especially after the October warm pattern. If this continues through early winter, lake-effect snow is expected to be near normal or just above. There should be available cold combined with high-latitude blocking this winter to produce heavy periods of lake-effect snow spread out through the winter season. Here is a look at the graphs showing each lake. The red is current readings and the blue is the average.590x339_11061536_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.34.51-am.png590x335_09170033_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-8.33.20-pm.png

1. The slopes in central/northeastern Pennsylvania will have some snow in November. There will be a tough hold into December, but more snow is expected late December through February for good skiing.

2. Snow, some icy periods are possible for West Virginia and far southern Pennsylvania resorts. Conditions can be good to poor at times, but mainly good.

3. The interior Northeast already having some snow here in November. Conditions should be excellent mid- and late season, either by big snow events or enough cold for snowmaking.

4. We are expecting good-to-excellent conditions for most of the West through April. Even Northern California should do well with occasional southern slides in the storm track leading to heavy snow events.590x331_11060052_november-december-2021-winter-transition.jpg590x331_09250354_screen-shot-2021-09-24-at-11.54.07-pm.png

1. With fewer cold snaps, there will be less energy demand in the East compared to the middle of the nation, especially mid-Atlantic on south. A mean storm track will head toward the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. There is a low chance for an early freeze this month in central Florida.

2. There is a chance for flooding and strong or drenching thunderstorms across the Tennessee/Ohio valleys and central Appalachians with a couple of cold fronts.

3. Middle of the nation will have an active December with an early start to the snowpack for the Foothills, Dakotas and Upper Midwest; a couple of very cold air masses will run down the Plains, and it will be much colder than 2020 (This may be a result of an SSW event).

4. Wildfires will persist in parts of central and Southern California; there will be a smoky sky and bad air quality at times. Temperatures will be very high away from smoke-filled skies.

5. Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected for the Northwest; this is more typical of La Nina. Northern California and Oregon are played dry for now, but there is a chance that it can be wetter.

Overview - If a positive PNA is the dominant signal, then the storm track can be farther east. Warm water temperatures along the East coast could set up a storm track over the Appalachians or interior Northeast rather than the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Warm SSTs can keep up temperatures, especially at night. A positive PNA would support dry conditions in Northern California and Oregon.590x331_09281629_screen-shot-2021-09-28-at-12.28.28-pm.png

1. There will be a very active northern storm track; snow frequency can be high across the northern Rockies to the Northeast. Above-normal snowfall expected for much of this region, especially in January; lake-effect snow intense at times.

2. It will be much colder this January compared to January 2021 for the northern Plains; some areas will be 10-15 degrees colder.

3. A storm track can bring widespread areas of snow to the northern and eastern Rockies, the Ohio Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Ice chances will increase from the mid-Mississippi Valley, across the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley and into parts of the mid-Atlantic.

4. The Southwest should continue to be drier than normal; storms will be less intense in the Northwest with some rain and snow for Northern California and Oregon. Ski areas should do well in the West and Northeast.

5. Coverage of cold in January will heavily depend on snowpack. We are conservative on numbers for now. We can see departures in January 4-8 degrees below normal with a colder source region this year.

6. A storm or two can reach the interior Southwest and southern Plains with the chance for snow or ice leading to disruptive travel. This area may not be as severe as last year's run of storms and cold.

Overview: Forecast models are showing negative EPO with a weak negative NAO. This could lead to a slight west shift in overall pattern and more cold from the Rockies to the Plains, but it will be pulled east at times by the negative NAO. This is the same for the storm track. Still, there is a low chance for a freeze in central Florida, but chances will increase later January into early February.590x334_11100215_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-9.13.49-pm.png

1. The coldest region can be the Dakotas and Upper Midwest in February. A couple of periods of Arctic air will occur south. Temperatures can be even lower than our current forecast.

2. Upper high pressure can back west at times across the Southeast, leading to occasional warming and drier conditions.

3. Temperatures can be 8-12 degrees milder from Kansas to Texas this February compared to February 2021.

4. Drought will remain strong in the Southwest, mainly dry conditions and well above-normal temperature departures.

5. Precipitation will average near normal for the Northwest, some rain and snow, but intensity will be up and down.

6. The mid-Atlantic and New England will be back and forth on temperatures. It could wind up milder in the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, but it comes down to snowpack (more snowpack in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, then colder).

7. The storm track will still be active across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast, with more rain, snow and ice topping over a very active and stormy winter.

Overview: The NAO may swing positive with a faster steering flow across eastern Canada. Any cold surges in the Plains and central Canada move quicker and farther northeast in the East. If snowpack is deep in the Northeast and Ohio Valley, then it can be colder. However, this setup allows the Southeast's upper high pressure to build at times, leading to milder and drier conditions in the Southeast. This also forces the storm track to the north, cutting off Gulf moisture to the East.


[mt]
Posted on Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
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That's a lot of stuff to read there.

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On 11/20/2021 at 8:41 AM, Grizzcoat said:

From PP at Accu-WX. Some of the graphics are the same from Sept (later ones are updated)- but the text is mostly new.

 

Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
Winter update

Risks:

1. I am concerned that our December change of lowering temperatures in the East may have been too quick. There is a chance that a milder period in the middle and perhaps later part of the month could overtake any cold at the very start and end of the month.

2. We may need to take temperatures up in southwestern Texas and more so in the Southwest.590x336_09161936_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.35.24-pm.png590x334_09162022_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.34.13-pm.png590x332_11100214_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-8.57.37-pm.png

1. As was expected, the stormy period started early in the West with heavy snow in the Cascades and northern Rockies in early October, then a big storm for Northern California. The storm track will shift throughout the winter season and can lead to precipitation near or just above normal overall.

2. Overall, this winter can be colder than the last seven years for the United States. A weaker polar vortex and negative phases of the EPO and NAO at times will force colder air through North America. A fast-growing snowpack across Canada in late fall and early winter will contribute to more widespread cold events, especially for the Midwest, Plains and interior Northwest.

3. An active northern storm track, compliments of La Nina, will extend from the Northwest to the Northeast this winter with several snow and ice events. Active periods of weather will escalate holiday shipping delays in addition to the already non-weather related delays through early January.

4. Weak-to-moderate La Nina may contribute to a higher frequency of northern storm events, but other signals throughout the winter season will once again cause changes in the storm track and cold surges (ex. polar vortex, high-latitude blocking and upper high pressure northeastern Pacific resulting in an amplified pattern).

5. The Southwest drought will hold. Wildfire season is nearly over for the entire nation with the exception of Southern California and western Arizona. The eastern Four Corners region is running behind schedule to last year's early winter surge. We expect a few storms again in this region, mainly across Colorado and Utah. New Mexico and Arizona can be drier than last winter.

6. Overall, the ski areas in the West and East will average good to excellent. The changing storm tracks should widen the coverage of snowpack this winter compared to other years.

7. The Southeast can turn drier and milder in February, perhaps an early growing start; watch for early buds on dormant trees and plants.

8. Typically, with La Nina, the Pacific Northwest is wet and snowy. This winter’s results will average near to above normal. Upper high pressure that forms over the northeastern Pacific can alter storm tracks throughout the winter, increasing and decreasing intensity of storms for any given area.

9. Surface water temperatures over all five Great Lakes are running above normal. There can be surges of colder air in November and December leading to brief periods of lake-effect snow. Later in December, January and perhaps extending into February, lake-effect snow can be heavier and more widespread.

Teleconnections:

ENSO – We are expecting a borderline weak-to-moderate La Nina, peaking in late December or early January. This can lead to stronger storms moving across the Northwest to the Midwest; it will be milder and drier across the southern tier of the nation.

QBO/SOLAR – Solar output will be close to minimum once again this winter. A negative QBO in the lower stratosphere and solar minimum can favor sudden stratospheric warming events early and late, and a weaker stratospheric polar vortex overall. In addition, as the easterly winds drift down into the troposphere, we can see an increase in high-latitude blocking, but the easterlies have been slow lowering through the stratosphere.

POLAR VORTEX DISRUPTION – An early weakening of the polar vortex will lead to an amplified pattern later this week. The polar vortex will have trouble maintaining strength over the pole through December, which means more cold surges for midlatitudes. Some analogs are showing a major disruption can occur late January or February, but maybe more likely later in February or March.

PDO – The PDO has strengthened in the past month and will remain strong and a significant factor this winter season. The warmest SST anomalies will be south of the Gulf of Alaska and north of Hawaii with colder water from the northeastern Pacific, along the West coast and southeast of Hawaii. A mean upper high pressure will be farther away from the West Coast most of the winter. The split in the overall jet stream can be influenced and not only bring heavier precipitation from the Northwest to western Canada, but also allow periods of heavier rain and snow to shift south into central and Northern California with a chance at Southern California as well.

MARINE HEAT WAVE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST: Sea-surface water temperature anomalies are running 3-6 degrees Fahrenheit above normal from Delaware to Maine. This can influence temperatures in December, holding back consistent cold weather and also precipitation type, more rain or mixed precipitation southern areas. This area can also influence the intensity of bigger storms, higher precipitation rates and potential nor'easter (already one so far).

EPO and NAO: These two teleconnections can be hard to predict, but the modeling shows occasional negative phases of both. When in line with polar disruptions it can lead to amplified patterns and significant cold swings for areas of the country.

Here is the month-to-month European forecast and interpretation of teleconnections.

September update:590x333_11070351_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.46.40-pm.png590x333_11070352_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.47.42-pm.png590x331_09161945_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-3.45.01-pm.png590x334_10210131_snowoutlook.png

1. Snowfall from the California Sierra to the northwestern Cascades will be heavy at times and spread out throughout the winter season. We are expecting a shifty storm track which leaves lulls in heavier precipitation periods.

2. We continue to favor a weak-to-near moderate La Nina. La Nina will most likely peak in the early part of the winter (around late December) on the border of a stronger weak La Nina, and a weaker moderate La Nina. For this reason we are covering for above-normal snowfall in the Midwest (due to the weaker La Nina side) and near- to above-normal snowfall in the Northwest (due to the moderate La Nina side). An even stronger La Nina would mean much less snow for the Midwest and much more in the Northwest.

3. For the Northeast, there can be a few big storms (two to four nor’easters) creating above-normal snowfall for the interior Northeast. The winter leans toward a few bigger storms rather than higher frequency smaller storms. The storms early can be mainly rain for the big East Coast cities (through November and early December). Chances are greater for snow for this area later in December and January.

4. Ice and snow mixed can fall on a few occasions from Oklahoma to Pennsylvania. This will hold back snowfall amounts, keeping this area near normal for the season. This includes cities like Springfield, Missouri; Louisville, Kentucky; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

5. The Great Lakes surface water is running well above normal, especially after the October warm pattern. If this continues through early winter, lake-effect snow is expected to be near normal or just above. There should be available cold combined with high-latitude blocking this winter to produce heavy periods of lake-effect snow spread out through the winter season. Here is a look at the graphs showing each lake. The red is current readings and the blue is the average.590x339_11061536_screen-shot-2021-11-06-at-11.34.51-am.png590x335_09170033_screen-shot-2021-09-16-at-8.33.20-pm.png

1. The slopes in central/northeastern Pennsylvania will have some snow in November. There will be a tough hold into December, but more snow is expected late December through February for good skiing.

2. Snow, some icy periods are possible for West Virginia and far southern Pennsylvania resorts. Conditions can be good to poor at times, but mainly good.

3. The interior Northeast already having some snow here in November. Conditions should be excellent mid- and late season, either by big snow events or enough cold for snowmaking.

4. We are expecting good-to-excellent conditions for most of the West through April. Even Northern California should do well with occasional southern slides in the storm track leading to heavy snow events.590x331_11060052_november-december-2021-winter-transition.jpg590x331_09250354_screen-shot-2021-09-24-at-11.54.07-pm.png

1. With fewer cold snaps, there will be less energy demand in the East compared to the middle of the nation, especially mid-Atlantic on south. A mean storm track will head toward the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. There is a low chance for an early freeze this month in central Florida.

2. There is a chance for flooding and strong or drenching thunderstorms across the Tennessee/Ohio valleys and central Appalachians with a couple of cold fronts.

3. Middle of the nation will have an active December with an early start to the snowpack for the Foothills, Dakotas and Upper Midwest; a couple of very cold air masses will run down the Plains, and it will be much colder than 2020 (This may be a result of an SSW event).

4. Wildfires will persist in parts of central and Southern California; there will be a smoky sky and bad air quality at times. Temperatures will be very high away from smoke-filled skies.

5. Periods of rain and mountain snow are expected for the Northwest; this is more typical of La Nina. Northern California and Oregon are played dry for now, but there is a chance that it can be wetter.

Overview - If a positive PNA is the dominant signal, then the storm track can be farther east. Warm water temperatures along the East coast could set up a storm track over the Appalachians or interior Northeast rather than the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Warm SSTs can keep up temperatures, especially at night. A positive PNA would support dry conditions in Northern California and Oregon.590x331_09281629_screen-shot-2021-09-28-at-12.28.28-pm.png

1. There will be a very active northern storm track; snow frequency can be high across the northern Rockies to the Northeast. Above-normal snowfall expected for much of this region, especially in January; lake-effect snow intense at times.

2. It will be much colder this January compared to January 2021 for the northern Plains; some areas will be 10-15 degrees colder.

3. A storm track can bring widespread areas of snow to the northern and eastern Rockies, the Ohio Valley, Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast. Ice chances will increase from the mid-Mississippi Valley, across the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley and into parts of the mid-Atlantic.

4. The Southwest should continue to be drier than normal; storms will be less intense in the Northwest with some rain and snow for Northern California and Oregon. Ski areas should do well in the West and Northeast.

5. Coverage of cold in January will heavily depend on snowpack. We are conservative on numbers for now. We can see departures in January 4-8 degrees below normal with a colder source region this year.

6. A storm or two can reach the interior Southwest and southern Plains with the chance for snow or ice leading to disruptive travel. This area may not be as severe as last year's run of storms and cold.

Overview: Forecast models are showing negative EPO with a weak negative NAO. This could lead to a slight west shift in overall pattern and more cold from the Rockies to the Plains, but it will be pulled east at times by the negative NAO. This is the same for the storm track. Still, there is a low chance for a freeze in central Florida, but chances will increase later January into early February.590x334_11100215_screen-shot-2021-11-09-at-9.13.49-pm.png

1. The coldest region can be the Dakotas and Upper Midwest in February. A couple of periods of Arctic air will occur south. Temperatures can be even lower than our current forecast.

2. Upper high pressure can back west at times across the Southeast, leading to occasional warming and drier conditions.

3. Temperatures can be 8-12 degrees milder from Kansas to Texas this February compared to February 2021.

4. Drought will remain strong in the Southwest, mainly dry conditions and well above-normal temperature departures.

5. Precipitation will average near normal for the Northwest, some rain and snow, but intensity will be up and down.

6. The mid-Atlantic and New England will be back and forth on temperatures. It could wind up milder in the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, but it comes down to snowpack (more snowpack in the Ohio Valley and Northeast, then colder).

7. The storm track will still be active across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast, with more rain, snow and ice topping over a very active and stormy winter.

Overview: The NAO may swing positive with a faster steering flow across eastern Canada. Any cold surges in the Plains and central Canada move quicker and farther northeast in the East. If snowpack is deep in the Northeast and Ohio Valley, then it can be colder. However, this setup allows the Southeast's upper high pressure to build at times, leading to milder and drier conditions in the Southeast. This also forces the storm track to the north, cutting off Gulf moisture to the East.


[mt]
Posted on Saturday, November 20, 2021 8:03:04 AM
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I wasn't a big fan of Pastelock when he took JB's old role there at Accu, but this write-up tells me he has grown into the LR role and developed his skill set. This is actually a pretty good f'cast from where we sit at the moment. I guess what I'm saying is I will give PP more credence going forward than I have til now. Appreciate the share Grizz.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This is from Lezaks blog this morning, and yes I'm very excited.  Add in the MJO looks to be in phase 7 and 8 as we move through December.  #58daycycle

While it may have been cold, 30° at the time the lights flipped on, there was no wind last night. This calm weather pattern will be changing soon. Look closely at this 234 hour forecast map showing the flow aloft, and at the surface valid at 6 PM, an hour and 25 minutes before kickoff next Sunday, December 5th:


American Model (GFS) Valid Near Kickoff For The Chiefs Game

This shows the development of a major storm over the western United States. This is how the LRC began in October, and we have been patiently waiting for it to recycle. Well, it appears it is about to do just that. This would be a major change in the pattern we have been experiencing. We are still waiting for our first inch of snow, but Kansas City is not alone. Denver, CO has set their record for their latest measurable snow ever recorded. In fact, Denver has not even had 0.1" or any measurable snow yet this season, so their record has been smashed. This will likely change in the next two weeks as the LRC recycles, and it may produce Kansas City's first inch of snow too before the middle of December.

We have finished recording our winter weather special. This will air on Thursday, December 2nd. Just know, I am more bullish on snow despited a slow start. Set your DVR for 6:30 PM Thursday.

For now, the calm weather 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

This is from Lezaks blog this morning, and yes I'm very excited.  Add in the MJO looks to be in phase 7 and 8 as we move through December.  #58daycycle

While it may have been cold, 30° at the time the lights flipped on, there was no wind last night. This calm weather pattern will be changing soon. Look closely at this 234 hour forecast map showing the flow aloft, and at the surface valid at 6 PM, an hour and 25 minutes before kickoff next Sunday, December 5th:


American Model (GFS) Valid Near Kickoff For The Chiefs Game

This shows the development of a major storm over the western United States. This is how the LRC began in October, and we have been patiently waiting for it to recycle. Well, it appears it is about to do just that. This would be a major change in the pattern we have been experiencing. We are still waiting for our first inch of snow, but Kansas City is not alone. Denver, CO has set their record for their latest measurable snow ever recorded. In fact, Denver has not even had 0.1" or any measurable snow yet this season, so their record has been smashed. This will likely change in the next two weeks as the LRC recycles, and it may produce Kansas City's first inch of snow too before the middle of December.

We have finished recording our winter weather special. This will air on Thursday, December 2nd. Just know, I am more bullish on snow despited a slow start. Set your DVR for 6:30 PM Thursday.

For now, the calm weather 

This is a great confirmation to the post I just made in the NOV thread.  I'm glad to hear that Gary is in the cold camp to open up the 2nd week of DEC and one that should have legs.  It def fits the LRC pattern in OCT with a troughy pattern in the west/central CONUS...let's see if the models continue trending in the right direction for us winter wx enthusiasts.

 

Euro Weekly MJO...

image.png

image.png

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4 minutes ago, Tom said:

This is a great confirmation to the post I just made in the NOV thread.  I'm glad to hear that Gary is in the cold camp to open up the 2nd week of DEC and one that should have legs.  It def fits the LRC pattern in OCT with a troughy pattern in the west/central CONUS...let's see if the models continue trending in the right direction for us winter wx enthusiasts.

 

Euro Weekly MJO...

image.png

image.png

If the pattern is indeed around 58 days that would put the biggest storm in the pattern (the storm from Oct 27-30th) due in around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

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1 minute ago, Clinton said:

If the pattern is indeed around 58 days that would put the biggest storm in the pattern (the storm from Oct 27-30th) due in around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

We really could have a fantastic holiday season tracking winter storms.  The LR GEFS and CFSv2 weeklies are starting to trend in our favor come mid DEC into early JAN.  Hopefully we can start building the #glacier.

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8 hours ago, Tom said:

We really could have a fantastic holiday season tracking winter storms.  The LR GEFS and CFSv2 weeklies are starting to trend in our favor come mid DEC into early JAN.  Hopefully we can start building the #glacier.

JB's summary for this week talks about the strat warming event, MJO heading to phase 7, and the related global precip analog that aligns very well with Dec of '95. I will tell you what though, I saw an NWS graphic that basically had a list of top-10 latest measurable snows for Chicago. All (9) that were later than Dec 5th were garbage winters. ORD needs to get on the board, and soon. Just saying, it's fine to skip the useless Halloween snows, the early November dustings, even the later November lake shadow noreasters, but going too deep without any snowfall is really bad ju-ju

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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DTX put out their winter outlook. Very much in line with Pastelock's, though not broken down monthly with graphics as he did. Wet and active for the GL's, but warm overall. Does allow for AN snowfall here Jan & Feb, closer to norm for Dec. Talks about the general trend of warmer winters regardless of ENSO state.

http://www.weather.gov/media/dtx/climate/Seasonal Outlooks/DTX_Winter2021-2022_Outlook.pdf

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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44 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Gary Lezak released his Winter forecast tonight, for KC he forecasted above average snowfall, precipitation, and near to above average temps.  Here's a link to his forecast.

https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/the-winter-weather-forecast

Hah.  The morning guy is the outlier with the lower prediction.  Kind of can't blame him, though, with the way things are starting off.  BTW, Lindsey Anderson -- the usual morning weathercaster -- is stunning (currently away on maternity leave).  Gotta give Gary props for nailing the snow forecast last year. KSHB Meteorologist Snowfall Predictions

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5 minutes ago, someweatherdude said:

Hah.  The morning guy is the outlier with the lower prediction.  Kind of can't blame him, though, with the way things are starting off.  BTW, Lindsey Anderson -- the usual morning weathercaster -- is stunning (currently away on maternity leave).  Gotta give Gary props for nailing the snow forecast last year. KSHB Meteorologist Snowfall Predictions

Takes a lot of guts to forecast above average snowfall with near to above average temps.  That doesn't happen very often around here.

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Takes a lot of guts to forecast above average snowfall with near to above average temps.  That doesn't happen very often around here.

That would be 07-08 for SMI. We ended up in the avg range for temps. This year, NOAA has us as AN temps and Snow. That'd be a 1st here too if it should play out that way.

This was interesting from DTXs outlook:

image.thumb.png.0f6fc8ae11e64a2f49c76e43f7c647d6.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@Tomlooks like Gary is thinking 61 days on his blog this morning.  He also said he'll be releasing Winter forecast with more detail Sunday morning.

And, just like that a storm is showing up. And, this storm fits the LRC perfectly. I am confident a winter storm will begin forming around one week from now, but will KC be hit by this storm?

Surface Forecast Valid Sunday Morning, December 12th (One week from Sunday):

Next Weekend's Potential Winter Storm
Next Weekend's Potential Winter Storm

The models are all over the place, as usual, and some of the runs end our snowflake contest.

European Model:

Snow Prediction European Model
F5 Weather

American Model:

American Model Snow Prediction
American Model Snow Prediction

Recent Stories from kshb.com

 
 
 
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12 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Could they really get snow in Texas?

I mean... Snow happens every year in that part of Texas.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 31.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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On 12/3/2021 at 8:32 AM, Clinton said:

@Tomlooks like Gary is thinking 61 days on his blog this morning.  He also said he'll be releasing Winter forecast with more detail Sunday morning.

And, just like that a storm is showing up. And, this storm fits the LRC perfectly. I am confident a winter storm will begin forming around one week from now, but will KC be hit by this storm?

Surface Forecast Valid Sunday Morning, December 12th (One week from Sunday):

Next Weekend's Potential Winter Storm
Next Weekend's Potential Winter Storm

The models are all over the place, as usual, and some of the runs end our snowflake contest.

European Model:

Snow Prediction European Model
F5 Weather

American Model:

American Model Snow Prediction
American Model Snow Prediction

Recent Stories from kshb.com

 

 
 
 

What is this that I am seeing...WHOA. I am rooting for ya bud......awesomeness for ur area!!!!

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Snowfall as of today Jan, 2022 is: 13.1"

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In the "fwiw dept" I see Chicago had a Top-10 driest November. Also noticed another season that happened which went on to be one of the most legendary winters for the OHV. So, maybe there's some hope for January rocking.

image.png.8a120cf00c9d0b019350c042af890bc3.png

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The latest Euro Seasonal suggests "winter cancel" except for maybe our farthest north members...the model is seeing absolutely ZERO blocking up in Eastern Canada/Greenland where this year's LRC has shown blocking.  Hmmm, is one to believe this to be true?  Does the model have a clue???  

 

5.png

 

 

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@Toma little confirmation from Gary on the cycle length this morning in his blog.  Looks like teleconnections have screwed KC once again.

We have now had no rain or snow for 21 days in a row. Today will make that streak reach 22 days in a row. The positive AO is likely the biggest reason why this next storm will likely miss Kansas City. When this part of the pattern cycled through in October, this next storm was quite wet. So, let's see if there is a trend back into a more functional storm around Saturday. For now, we are going with the trend towards the weaker storm; the faster moving storm; and likely more wind and no rain or snow.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

@Toma little confirmation from Gary on the cycle length this morning in his blog.  Looks like teleconnections have screwed KC once again.

We have now had no rain or snow for 21 days in a row. Today will make that streak reach 22 days in a row. The positive AO is likely the biggest reason why this next storm will likely miss Kansas City. When this part of the pattern cycled through in October, this next storm was quite wet. So, let's see if there is a trend back into a more functional storm around Saturday. For now, we are going with the trend towards the weaker storm; the faster moving storm; and likely more wind and no rain or snow.

It's kind of amazing that we (KC) went from an airmass with mid-60s to an airmass with mid-20s without squeezing out a single drop of rain.  

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8 hours ago, FV-Mike said:

Maybe this means the GL region is due for a Blizzard!

264998404_480622433422705_895438608131903661_n.thumb.jpg.be09dbc98ee6e41296501ae34548c7c7.jpg

Lol @ SEMI. Almost 11 years now (GHD-1). I've moved to one of the most difficult regions to score a true bliz. On par with SWMO. Kinda pathetic when SOH beats you! 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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One of our local Mets in KC is predicting 16.5 inches of snow this year, which is 2 inches below average.  Although KC’s historical average is 18.5 inches, the last 10 years we’ve averaged about 15.5 inches. He has a good write up of how much warmer KC has gotten over the last several decades. Our average winter temp has risen 3.4 degrees since 1970.   I used to really try to deny global warming.  I’d chalk it up to changes in measurement taking or heat islands or other things.  I just didn’t want to believe that my beloved winters are dying a slow death. I was trying to convince myself.  But regardless of why it’s happening, it IS happening.  I think KC is a great example of a location right in the winter battle zone between warm and cold where small differences really matter. We’re at the northern edge of big warm ups each year.  We’ll hit 60 degrees in January while Des Moines sits at freezing.  It’s always been that way.   But it’s become pretty clear that we’re moving more and more into the warmer section of that battle zone. Those winter warm fronts are becoming more common and lasting longer. And it’s taking longer now at the beginning of winter for the cold air to win out.  Makes me really sad that winters are slowly dying around here.  

Here’s the write up. https://fox4kc.com/weather/joes-weather-blog-the-fox-4-winter-forecast-mon-12-6/

Edit:  the lead met only predicts 13 inches which is about 27 percent below normal.  But the team average prediction is 16.5. 

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Interestingly, while winters have had less snow and cold in recent years/decades we have also had less severe weather in the spring in MBY. We get some heavy rain producers, but no real extreme severe weather. I assume this is because we don't have the clash of cold and warm air masses like we used to. Regarding snow, our last official snowfall greater than 6" occurred nearly 8 years ago on Feb 4, 2014.

I never had a problem with our climate possibly entering a warmer period as the climate has warmed and cooled over Earth's history. I have always rejected the political explanations for it...and still do.

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  • 21-22 snowfalls >=3": Jan 14/15 (3.4"); Season total: 5.1" (30% of seasonal normal 17.1" as of Jan 16, 2022)
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55 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Interestingly, while winters have had less snow and cold in recent years/decades we have also had less severe weather in the spring in MBY. We get some heavy rain producers, but no real extreme severe weather. I assume this is because we don't have the clash of cold and warm air masses like we used to. Regarding snow, our last official snowfall greater than 6" occurred nearly 8 years ago on Feb 4, 2014.

I never had a problem with our climate possibly entering a warmer period as the climate has warmed and cooled over Earth's history. I have always rejected the political explanations for it...and still do.

For purposes of my post, the warmth could be caused by Captain Zorg of the Interstellar Kleringy Army pointing a laser cannon at our planet.  Whatever the cause, it bothers me because it's stealing my winters.  

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1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

Interestingly, while winters have had less snow and cold in recent years/decades we have also had less severe weather in the spring in MBY. We get some heavy rain producers, but no real extreme severe weather. I assume this is because we don't have the clash of cold and warm air masses like we used to. Regarding snow, our last official snowfall greater than 6" occurred nearly 8 years ago on Feb 4, 2014.

I never had a problem with our climate possibly entering a warmer period as the climate has warmed and cooled over Earth's history. I have always rejected the political explanations for it...and still do.

8 years without a snowfall greater than 6in.  Time for that streak to end!

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Not sure if anyone here has mentioned it but has any of you had a chance to check out John Dee’s Snow Church on you tube yet? I think he does a pretty good job explaining the more technical aspects of what’s driving our weather. He’s extremely western UP/northern MN/WI bias but if you can get past that he does well giving the overall picture for the Midwest also.

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2 hours ago, Up_north_MI said:

Not sure if anyone here has mentioned it but has any of you had a chance to check out John Dee’s Snow Church on you tube yet? I think he does a pretty good job explaining the more technical aspects of what’s driving our weather. He’s extremely western UP/northern MN/WI bias but if you can get past that he does well giving the overall picture for the Midwest also.

love his insights!

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1FF9FA2A-BC02-4A2F-B690-D663428611E2.thumb.jpeg.aeee14ec15ee6e52dba3db0302e907f4.jpegMy daughters snowmobile has been sitting outside in the back yard for the past 7 days so this gives you a idea of how much snow has fallen this past week around here. It’s warm today though and it’s definitely melting from the warm ground up. I measured about 9” on the warm ground and about 12” on anything elevated off the ground. I’ll be surprised if any of this is around a week from now though with the warmup on the way. 

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On 12/5/2021 at 11:13 AM, FAR_Weather said:

I mean... Snow happens every year in that part of Texas.

Panhandle often sees snow, even if it’s a dusting.   But to bring it to No. Central Tx is a different animal.  
I’d like to see some this year but in truth I’m just expecting some real cold periods.  
 

Also, next week for us will be in the low to mid 70’s then plunging into the high 60’s.  😄  

Is it winter yet?!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Looks like colder weather has more staying power after the midweek period next week and especially towards the end. Nothing brutal, but enough to bring us back to near average December temperatures. Could actually be a little BN normal.

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Snowfall as of today Jan, 2022 is: 13.1"

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27 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks like colder weather has more staying power after the midweek period next week and especially towards the end. Nothing brutal, but enough to bring us back to near average December temperatures. Could actually be a little BN normal.

I think we get a January this winter, since it was mostly MIA last season. PP was calling for this Dec to be a transitional month, with winter showing full force in January. Winter sets in a month earlier for NMI, and they are AN in the snowfall dept despite the ups-n-downs. I see The Sault has almost caught up to Gaylord nearing 44" on the season.

For comparison tho to what "can happen" in a legit hard hitting early winter, Traverse is sitting at 16.8" with 2 weeks til Christmas. If memory serves, in both '89 and '95 TC hit the 100" mark by Christmas. And possibly in 2013 as well.

 

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The updated CPC long range guess for the rest of the winter is now leaning toward a warmer/wetter weather pattern. Here is the December guess

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/index.php

And the JFM guess

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

Boy, hasn't this been the theme for slow starts to Winter's around here...but is there a silver lining that most seasons end up AN in the snow dept.  Notably, 4 out 10 JAN's were big hits and a few FEB's were also good ones.  

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See my post in the Dec thd wrt our lame december snows, and where they've gone.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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We’ll have a high of 58 today. No rain in sight.  
 

Christmas will be a bust for us. 
high 78-80.  High humidity ~76% for the week.  Fall isn’t through with the southern plains.  
 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ryan Maue tweeted the new Euro weeklies for January... good for the west and far north, not so much for the central/south/east.

image.thumb.png.1df63f1bed3f8d3330496584def4f34b.png

image.thumb.png.fb0b684fb7c0833cfa4cd49df6e82f36.png

 

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season snowfall: 16.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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On 12/20/2021 at 8:55 PM, Hawkeye said:

Ryan Maue tweeted the new Euro weeklies for January... good for the west and far north, not so much for the central/south/east.

image.thumb.png.1df63f1bed3f8d3330496584def4f34b.png

image.thumb.png.fb0b684fb7c0833cfa4cd49df6e82f36.png

 

Not sure why (2) Peeps "liked" this. Looks downright horridly dry, even if marginally cold enough for snow. Everything's displaced north and thus a repeat of most of the last 3 winters.

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Winter 2021-22 Snow Total = 9.2"  Largest Storm: 4.2" (11/27)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 7.7 Dec: 1.5 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = XX.X" ??

2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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4 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Not sure why (2) Peeps "liked" this. Looks downright horridly dry, even if marginally cold enough for snow. Everything's displaced north and thus a repeat of most of the last 3 winters.

You should have seen the previous run...it was worse but the trend is much better overall...

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Dr. Cohen seems to be a bit more optimistic for the rest of winter...

Quote

Plain Language Summary

As I have been discussing, I feel that the atmosphere has approached a fork in the road for the winter.  The first path includes a brief colder period as we close out the year and a resumption of relatively milder weather will return early in the new Year.  The second path means the overall mild winter is mostly winding down and much of the remainder of the winter will feature colder weather.  Based on my own diagnosis, I feel that the atmosphere has made a step towards the colder solution.

 

You can read his latest blog here: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

Dr. Cohen seems to be a bit more optimistic for the rest of winter...

 

You can read his latest blog here: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

My reading of his Wednesday update is that he is less optimistic than he was on Monday.  In fact, much of it seems downright pessimistic if you like snow and cold  and you're anywhere but the northwestern part of our forum.  Am I misreading it?  

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