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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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While most of our Sub endures the seasons longest Heat Wave of the season, what do we have to look forward to???  What does mother nature have in store for the last month of met Summer???  IMHO, big changes are coming this month and they start right out of the gates...in fact, an incredibly fascinating 500mb pattern sets up as we open up the month.  I've been saying this for months now, but blocking this summer is going to produce some really odd wx patterns across our continent and impact our wx.

As I write this post, the sun is beginning to rise but by the end of this month, the sun will be inching its way closer to setting way up north across the Arctic.  Speaking of the Arctic, the summer has been cool to cold up that way and also into parts of N/NE Canada where there is still ice from the past winter.  Temps up in the arctic circle have remained BN throughout the summer.  Let's see how it finishes.

 

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Ice Ice baby...notice on this map the incredibly thick ice (5+ meters) that is currently present SW of Baffin Island.  You could literally walk across this ice sheet into N Canada.  Why is this important??  It is my opinion that this region will be the source region for early Autumn cool spells.  

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Blocking?  Troughs?  Severe Wx....???  Typically speaking, in any ordinary month of August, severe wx is lacking due to the jet stream reaching its weakest point.  This season, however, is not your typical summer season.  Get ready and Gear up for some severe wx.  What I'm seeing and predicting is some rare times whereby severe storms will be ushering in relief for our ag belt that is drying out, esp west of the MW.  Let's take a look at what the models are showing and what we can expect this month.

 

Winter in August???  What a wild looking Hudson Bay Vortex to welcome in August.  Is this a theme for this month.  I believe so.

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I would not be surprised if parts of eastern Canada see snow flakes flying by months end.  There are numerous LR forecasting tools that indicate to me that by Week 2 of this month we could see our first taste of Autumn for areas of the N & E Sub.  I have opined that this month will overall be the coolest month of the summer.  All signs are certainly pointing that way.  Ya'll ready for some relief???

 

All the models are dialing in on a much wetter pattern for the opening week of the month...

 

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Nature will be producing "Atmospheric Fireworks" in a not so common way this month....along with cooler temps...who will be on the receiving end???  Let's discuss....

 

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Interesting trends in the models for next week as the PNA is forecast to spike + even farther which really amps up the 500mb pattern.  I saw this happen before in the years of 2013 and 2014 when the "Blob" in the NE PAC influenced the wx pattern for western Canada.

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N PAC SST's on fuego...

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Not surprised to see the CFSv2 seeing a lot of ridging hugging the western shores of North America for the duration of this month...not to mention, but that big time Block over Greenland???  Hudson Bay Vortex is going to flex its muscles and likely put an end to the summer that did not really exist up in the northern parts of Canada this year.  I could see it start snowing early this year and by late Aug snows will begin flying and laying down the foundation up there.

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The 1st full week of August is likely to be one of the best stretches of summer around these parts.  Practically every model is agreeing that due to the spike in the +PNA, the eastern Sub will be benefiting from a cool Canadian HP that will be parked over the region for days.  This will be a welcomed airmass with low DP's and high temps in the 70's/low 80's.  Perfection.

0z EPS...Day 5-10 temp...

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Love it, Tom.   
Hopefully our agriculture will benefit too. When Tx/Ok bake it gets weird.  
We’ve been grateful for a quiet hurricane year as well.  
Thanks for keeping us in the loop.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

@Andie @OKwx2k4... it looks like its back to your "regular scheduled programming" by mother nature....cool and wet is a certain BET!

 

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lol

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

Probably a bit muted around here, but if your farther W/NW it’ll be more toastier.

Perfect, I like mid 80's.  Don't mind 70's, but wouldn't mind some more heat until September...then it's football season.  60's to low 70's are the perfect temp.   

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When comparing both the Euro and JMA weeklies, they are both seeing a SE Canadian/GL's ridge in the means during the second half of the month.  This would suggest a reversal of the NW flow aloft into a more SW Flow that would bring back the Upper MW heat dome and could very well bake the central Plains.  Depending on how close the ridge sets up near the GL's will ultimately decide how warm it can get.  I'm leaning more towards warmer nights keeping temps AN due to moist air and an active pattern.  Daytime highs should be held at bay IMO.  Needless to say, it is looking likely that a wetter pattern is shaping up for the Week of the 15th.

 

Week 3-4...

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Temp/Precip...it's back to the ol' pattern for the second half of the month where its dry for the NW Sub and wet for the E Sub.  Somewhat normal to BN temps as advertised below.  Man, that Monsoon looks amaze-balls for the inter-mountain west and SW.  Both climate models are earily similar and bode confidence in this forecast.

 

Y202107.D2812_gl2.png

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Looking ahead to the closing week or days of Aug, I have opined that we would see nature usher chilly CF's.  As it stands now, for 2 runs in a row, the Euro Weeklies are "seeing" the North American 500mb amplify and shoot down a cool/cold air mass for the eastern CONUS.  Autumnal air is lurking later this month for those yearning for Autumn wx...pretty soon, Labor Day weekend will be on our minds and Football season underway.  The last month of met Summer is almost upon us and its flying on by.  Our sub will certainly have a variety of wx across the central CONUS during this month.  Enjoy!

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Welcome to August!  Sheesh, I can't believe how fast this summer is zipping on by...a part of me wants this great wx to continue but then I ponder on the idea of those cool days and nights that'll be knocking on our door soon enough.  What is really noticeable, esp for those of you who are early risers as I am, the morning daylight hours have shrunk quite a bit since the summer solstice.  #signsofautumn

Anyway, after a tranquil work week, things will begin to get active around here next weekend as the primary ag belt region once again fires up.  The EPS/GEFS are not quite on the same page but show a general consensus at this range. 

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I did notice the models are starting to see the NE PAC ridge fire up around the 10th which will introduce some very cool wx for the N Rockies and into @FAR_Weather???

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Speaking of cooler wx, this is the first run off the EPS that I have seen hints of snow for the lower 48....is this the beginning of a string of troughs that will rotate into the northern Sub starting around the 10th??  I believe so.  Should be an eventful month of wx and a cooler finish to our summer season.  I'm looking forward to it, are you???

 

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Welcome to August 2021. A quick look back at July 2021 and here at Grand Rapids the mean temperature was 72.3 that is a departure of -0.5. the high for the month was 89 and happened on 7 days. The low for the month was 53 on the 31st This past July was the coolest one since July of 2015. There was a total of 4.44" of rain fall. That is above the average of 3.86. The over night low here at my house was 59 and it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 60. I recorded 0.23" of rain fall overnight and at GRR they reported 0.19"

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This tweet shows that my county, Phelps in Central Nebraska, has the highest corn  yield potential for bushels per acre in the nation. Wow. I know that in soil competitions, what is called Holdrege soil is consistently the best. 

 

That is beautiful!  Fantastic news.  Overall, I’m rather optimistic we’ll see a good crop harvest in the main at belt this year. 

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Kinda of surprised Grundy County, IA is not on the list. It's Tama Soil is one of the best in the world and the acreage prices for crops their shows it....

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Its a refreshing 58F this morning with clear skies and slight wind off the lake.  Might get some spotty lake effect rain showers this afternoon but the remains to be seen.  Had a high of only 76F yesterday with hazy sunshine.  It was a lovely Sunday to be outdoors.  The Lollapalooza music festival was a huge success and mother nature cooperated.  This stretch of cooler wx is really a treat before we get into some summer warmth later this weekend.  The Euro is advertising some blazing Heat to develop across the Plains by Fri into Tue of next week.  The GFS also agrees to the Heat in the Plains but differs farther east around IA and points east as it has multiple waves of precip.  The battle begins.

 

 

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Last evening a summer cool front sat lazily over North Texas and just rained itself out. Plenty of lightning and thunder and as my husband was driving through it I was watching it close.  
No movement or circulation just a big dumpfest.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We are back home after a short trip up to Linwood (Bay City) There was a short but heavy thunderstorm around 1 PM before the storm it was sunny with temperatures around 70 but after the storm the temperatures stayed in the mid 60's with a brisk NE wind. Here at my house at this time it is partly cloudy and a comfortable 72.

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It's another delightful and cool morning (60F/57F)...boy, the models are churning up the heat and humidity but there are some discrepancies about how warm it gets late this weekend into early next week dependent on where/how storms and clouds develop.  One thing is certain, an active pattern looks to fire up from IA and points N & E starting this weekend and then bleed south as a frontal boundary sags south mid next week.  The EPO is still forecast to dip negative as the NE PAC fires up by the 10th/11th that'll press the flow aloft out of the NW.

0z EPS from last night shows the wetter signal for our IA/MN folks who have been dry....I'm eye balling the Tue-Thu period of next week for a multi-day severe wx outbreak....

 

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Here was the week 3 temp forecast....I smell a bust is coming due to the models bias in the NE PAC...IMO, the CFSv2 has the right idea, as are the JMA weeklies from last week.  As seen below, the Euro Weeklies from yesterday have flipped towards a much warmer signal and veered away from the slightly cooler signal.  The CFSv2 is still showing a significant cool show during the same period for the week of the 15th.  

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27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Perfect weather today the high is forcasted to be in the upper 70's.  It's currently 59 which is the coolest reading I've had since sometime in June.

Enjoy it Clinton!  I’ve been soaking in every min of it before the heat/humidity return.  It almost feels like a Sept tease.

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There has now been 4 days in a row of below average temperatures. Since June 21st there have been 6 time when there have been 3 or more days in a row of below average temperatures. In fact since June 1st there have been 30 days of below average mean temperatures and 33 days of above average temperatures. So there have been many cool breaks. So far the official high at Grand Rapids has been 90 (2 times) There also have been 6 days with highs of 89. 5 days of highs of 88. On the flip side there have been 2 days of highs in the 60's 8 days of highs of 75 or cooler   There are now just 28 days left of meteorological summer there are some hints that the next two weeks could be on the very warm side. But hey this is summer, for some reason I feel we are due for a colder/snowier than average winter.

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Today's 12z Euro has suddenly turned a little cooler from IA and points East from Fri-Mon.  The model maybe is starting to "see" the wetter pattern leading me to believe there will be more clouds as there are multiple waves in this pattern.  Hopefully it continues this trend.  One thing that is a lock, are the very high DP's that will be joining us all.

 

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8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Today's 12z Euro has suddenly turned a little cooler from IA and points East from Fri-Mon.  The model maybe is starting to "see" the wetter pattern leading me to believe there will be more clouds as there are multiple waves in this pattern.  Hopefully it continues this trend.  One thing that is a lock, are the very high DP's that will be joining us all.

 

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Let’s hope this transpires!

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I've returned home after being gone 19 days. The grass is getting quite brown. Less than a quarter inch in my gauge for that entire time. Maybe some evaporated? Idk....but I'm not looking forward to anymore heat. Bring on earlier sunsets and the change of season. Fall is around the corner!

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So, may as well get use to it.  
Dry and temps 95-98 for the next 12-14 days.  (Yawn). 😴

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Out on the deck with a cold one and grilling chops and sweetcorn on the Weber. Been a few weeks since I've been able to do this. The sun is setting noticeably earlier from a few weeks ago when I was last home. Locusts are loud! There's no wind or humidity. Gonna enjoy this before the heat comes back. Hopefully its short lived! 

I'm on 'fall mode' now!

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57 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Out on the deck with a cold one and grilling chops and sweetcorn on the Weber. Been a few weeks since I've been able to do this. The sun is setting noticeably earlier from a few weeks ago when I was last home. Locusts are loud! There's no wind or humidity. Gonna enjoy this before the heat comes back. Hopefully its short lived! 

I'm on 'fall mode' now!

I’m over at my sisters having a fire and listening to nature myself.  Great evening to be out and enjoying the night.

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0z Euro/EPS still advertising multiple rounds of storms/precip centered around our IA folks and locations N & E....pretty solid signal that over the next 7 days a lot of you guys who have been missed could very well make up the precip dept.

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25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The heat and nasty weather move back in this weekend. I'll be headed down to Florida where it will be slightly cooler. These cool mornings in the upper 50s have me ready for fall which is my favorite time of the year.

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Have a safe trip down there...what part of Florida?

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I have a good crop of tomatoes here. The plants are well over 3 feet tall and nice tomatoes on there There are reports of some people having tomato plants as tall as 8 feet in the area. While not 8 feet tall one year back in the1970's I did have plants that were well over 5 feet tall not sure of the connection but the winter that followed was one of the coldest on record (December 1976, January 1977) 
Yesterday was sort of a chamber of commerce day with sunny skies with temperatures for most of the day in the upper 70's and the high of 80. The overnight low here at my house was 58 and at this time it is clear and 63.

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westMJim in Texas we’ve seen extraordinary growth in all kinds of plants. Incredible response from deep cold last winter and, I believe, in anticipation of deep cold this winter. 
Im preparing now for Deep Freeze Part 2 this winter. 
Thoughts anyone?
 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

I have a good crop of tomatoes here. The plants are well over 3 feet tall and nice tomatoes on there There are reports of some people having tomato plants as tall as 8 feet in the area. While not 8 feet tall one year back in the1970's I did have plants that were well over 5 feet tall not sure of the connection but the winter that followed was one of the coldest on record (December 1976, January 1977) 
Yesterday was sort of a chamber of commerce day with sunny skies with temperatures for most of the day in the upper 70's and the high of 80. The overnight low here at my house was 58 and at this time it is clear and 63.

mine are about 6 feet, but no matter how hard I try they keep falling over.  Hundreds of tomatoes so far from 6 plants.  They are going nuts!

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Next year the NWS will have different tiers for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.  I don't think it's a bad idea and I'm curious to see how it works out.

I'll probably be a lone ranger here, but I don't think the average person will understand the distinctions. As the old (army?) saying goes, "anything that can be misunderstood has been misunderstood!"

Also, I don't like the term "considerable". In fact, I'm afraid I'll break out laughing, when the TV/radio breaks in with the urgent message "a considerable T-storm warning has been issued for our area". "Substantial" and "noteworthy" might work, too...lol

I wonder if these will be uniquely color coded on weather maps to go along with all the other colors required for watches and other warnings. Might get kind of messy.

Just my gut reaction...somehow I think the KISS method (keep it simple stupid) would be better, but what do I know...lol

@Clinton enjoy your time in Florida and I'm a big fan of fall weather myself!

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

I'll probably be a lone ranger here, but I don't think the average person will understand the distinctions. As the old (army?) saying goes, "anything that can be misunderstood has been misunderstood!"

Also, I don't like the term "considerable". In fact, I'm afraid I'll break out laughing, when the TV/radio breaks in with the urgent message "a considerable T-storm warning has been issued for our area". "Substantial" and "noteworthy" might work, too...lol

I wonder if these will be uniquely color coded on weather maps to go along with all the other colors required for watches and other warnings. Might get kind of messy.

Just my gut reaction...somehow I think the KISS method (keep it simple stupid) would be better, but what do I know...lol

@Clinton enjoy your time in Florida and I'm a big fan of fall weather myself!

I agree. “Considerable” doesn’t sound as bad or severe as “severe”! Haha Dangerous or something else would make more sense IMO.

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It's actually raining here this morning.  July 14th was the last rain event.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The JMA weeklies came in today and show a Week 2 cool down as do the CFSv2 weeklies.  Last nights 0z EPS starting showing some signs of cooling but not completely there yet I believe.

Week 2 temp...a normal precip pattern sets up during this period....

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Y202108.D0412_gl0.png

 

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Week 3-4 Temp/precip...here is when it could get interesting for Hurricane hits for the GOM or EC...you can sorta see the heat build over the west and cooling across the eastern CONUS...AN precip pattern setting up 

 

Y202108.D0412_gl2.png

 

Y202108.D0412_gl0.png

 

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I picked up 0.19" this morning.  The CAMs have dropped the rain later today and tonight.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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