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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

I have a good crop of tomatoes here. The plants are well over 3 feet tall and nice tomatoes on there There are reports of some people having tomato plants as tall as 8 feet in the area. While not 8 feet tall one year back in the1970's I did have plants that were well over 5 feet tall not sure of the connection but the winter that followed was one of the coldest on record (December 1976, January 1977) 
Yesterday was sort of a chamber of commerce day with sunny skies with temperatures for most of the day in the upper 70's and the high of 80. The overnight low here at my house was 58 and at this time it is clear and 63.

mine are about 6 feet, but no matter how hard I try they keep falling over.  Hundreds of tomatoes so far from 6 plants.  They are going nuts!

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Next year the NWS will have different tiers for Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.  I don't think it's a bad idea and I'm curious to see how it works out.

I'll probably be a lone ranger here, but I don't think the average person will understand the distinctions. As the old (army?) saying goes, "anything that can be misunderstood has been misunderstood!"

Also, I don't like the term "considerable". In fact, I'm afraid I'll break out laughing, when the TV/radio breaks in with the urgent message "a considerable T-storm warning has been issued for our area". "Substantial" and "noteworthy" might work, too...lol

I wonder if these will be uniquely color coded on weather maps to go along with all the other colors required for watches and other warnings. Might get kind of messy.

Just my gut reaction...somehow I think the KISS method (keep it simple stupid) would be better, but what do I know...lol

@Clinton enjoy your time in Florida and I'm a big fan of fall weather myself!

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23-24 seasonal snow total: 17.8" (as of 3/9/24)

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1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

I'll probably be a lone ranger here, but I don't think the average person will understand the distinctions. As the old (army?) saying goes, "anything that can be misunderstood has been misunderstood!"

Also, I don't like the term "considerable". In fact, I'm afraid I'll break out laughing, when the TV/radio breaks in with the urgent message "a considerable T-storm warning has been issued for our area". "Substantial" and "noteworthy" might work, too...lol

I wonder if these will be uniquely color coded on weather maps to go along with all the other colors required for watches and other warnings. Might get kind of messy.

Just my gut reaction...somehow I think the KISS method (keep it simple stupid) would be better, but what do I know...lol

@Clinton enjoy your time in Florida and I'm a big fan of fall weather myself!

I agree. “Considerable” doesn’t sound as bad or severe as “severe”! Haha Dangerous or something else would make more sense IMO.

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It's actually raining here this morning.  July 14th was the last rain event.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The JMA weeklies came in today and show a Week 2 cool down as do the CFSv2 weeklies.  Last nights 0z EPS starting showing some signs of cooling but not completely there yet I believe.

Week 2 temp...a normal precip pattern sets up during this period....

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Week 3-4 Temp/precip...here is when it could get interesting for Hurricane hits for the GOM or EC...you can sorta see the heat build over the west and cooling across the eastern CONUS...AN precip pattern setting up 

 

Y202108.D0412_gl2.png

 

Y202108.D0412_gl0.png

 

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I picked up 0.19" this morning.  The CAMs have dropped the rain later today and tonight.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Flipped the A/C on yesterday and prob won't turn it off till later next week as it stands now.  For the time being, its a relatively warm and comfortable morning 73F/61F with clear skies.  Hoping to get some cells to develop this afternoon.  The next few days will feature several waves over the region as a typical summer pattern sets up.  I have a rooftop party I was invited to on Sat near Uptown so I'm looking forward to that and might have to dodge some storms.

0z Euro...pretty generous through Wed...

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Alright, as we near the end of next week, I think the models are starting to digest the development of the NW PAC ridge around the 10th/11th alongside a west-based Greenland Block allowing a trough to swing through our Sub by next weekend.  Some pretty big changes in the modeling for Week 2 according to the latest 0z EPS...hats off to the JMA & CFSv2 weeklies for "seeing" this pattern.  Its looking cooler for Week 2...in fact, I just dug a bit deeper and its looking a lot cooler and wetter esp near the MW/GL's region.  The idea of re-surging troughs coming down out of Canada could finally be coming into fruition.  Let's hope it continues because this type of pattern would bring much needed relief up north and west of here.

 

Next 7 days off the 0z EPS....

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The Euro Seasonal came in yesterday and it has certainly trended towards the cooler and wetter look the CFSv2 has been rock steady on.  Take a gander at the 500mb and temp/precip anomalies.  What is catching my eyes is what is going on up in Canada....boy, Oh Canada, your going to be heading right into Autumn/Winter this month and those AN precip anomalies will prob include Snowfall.

500mb...Archipelago Vortex looks interesting for many reasons...

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Temp/Precip... @Andie @OKwx2k4your going back to the Ol' pattern that set up heading into Summer...meanwhile, the model is suggesting AN temps near the GL's...ehh, I'm not buying it based on the teleconnections and blocking patterns showing up in the LR.

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The overnight low here was a mild 64 and it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 62 At this time it is cloudy here with some rain to the west over the lake. The first 5 days of August have been below average here at GR. At this time it is cloudy and 73 here.

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There was a line of storms that raced down the lakefront last night but it didn't amount to much and only about 0.25" of precip.  The northern burbs, where they need it most, got 2 rounds of storms yesterday which was needed badly.  My brothers wife said the ponds are evaporating from the lack of rain.  Meanwhile, our friends up north near MSP are about to get slammed by some storms.  I'm really diggin' the summery pattern over the next several days across the majority of the GL's/MW region.  It does look like many members on here are in the zone of opportunity for storms to fire up.

 

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0z Euro over the next 5 days....

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The models earlier this week were overdone with the heat and now the forecast here locally are temps in the upper 80's and maybe a couple days near 90 or thereabouts.  It's amazing to me how much WGN loves to pump the Heat as much as they do.  The producer is a big fan of Hot weather..go figure...they had low 90's for this weekend for days this past week and are still the only ones forecasting 95F for next Tue.  Besides that, they do a pretty darn good job with everything else they do. 

Meanwhile, the models are all starting to lock in on a "Friday the 13th Summer Cold Front"....it took a little bit, but that ridge off the west coast and blocking near Greenland are cycling back and will bring many of us a refreshing airmass for the following weekend.  The same pattern will fire back up in the desert SW as a surge of moisture comes up from the Baja into the deserts and most of the ag belt region should benefit as well.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

There was a line of storms that raced down the lakefront last night but it didn't amount to much and only about 0.25" of precip.  The northern burbs, where they need it most, got 2 rounds of storms yesterday which was needed badly.  My brothers wife said the ponds are evaporating from the lack of rain.  Meanwhile, our friends up north near MSP are about to get slammed by some storms.  I'm really diggin' the summery pattern over the next several days across the majority of the GL's/MW region.  It does look like many members on here are in the zone of opportunity for storms to fire up.

 

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0z Euro over the next 5 days....

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I'm in St Paul this weekend and the storm complex rolled in around 6am and lasted most of the morning. Lots of thunder and lightning.

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Grass is turning noticeably brown in many spots. Despite that, it’s a humid and dreary day. I’m about to be out of town for 11 days, hopefully we start moving into a better pattern by then.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Omaha is really getting dumped on tonight.  There are a lot of 1.5-3.0+" reports from across the area.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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44 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Omaha is really getting dumped on tonight.  There are a lot of 1.5-3.0+" reports from across the area.

There are widespread reports of 3" to nearly 4" across Omaha tonight.  The comma head of the MCS crawled across the city.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I had a great time last night up on the rooftop near the lake.  Thankfully, we had a nice lake breeze that was caused by the outflows from the storms up in Wisco and they also played a big role by somewhat blocking out the sunlight from the anvil cloud tops.  As the grill master in charge, it was very humid and I couldn't imagine grilling in full sun and warmer temps...esp when your sipping on cocktails!  

Meanwhile, its a very warm and muggy morning 77F/69F...ORD & STL have the warmest temp in the entire region....yeesh!

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Good morning from warm and muggy Memphis. We are spending a day here on our way to Florida. Looks like rain is moving in back home and a chance of severe weather later today. As for for here in Memphis it will be dry with temps in the 90s and humid.

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Here at my house I recorded 0.17" of rain fall overnight. The overnight low here was a warm 70. The official low looks to have been 72 but there was only around 0.05" of rain fall at the airport. At the current time the official temperature is 73 with a DP of 72. Yesterday with a H/L of 84/66 was the 1st day of this August that the mean was above average. After the first 7 days the mean at GR is 69.4 and that is -2.9 for the month so far. 
 

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The entire weekend was yet another dud for my area.  There is one more chance of a shower or storm late tonight as the upper low drops in from the nw.  The model trend is to produce most of the rain north of CR.  The 3kNAM misses us completely.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The entire weekend was yet another dud for my area.  There is one more chance of a shower or storm late tonight as the upper low drops in from the nw.  The model trend is to produce most of the rain north of CR.  The 3kNAM misses us completely.

Yeah,  pretty sad.  I’m not optimistic about tonight either.  

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