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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The entire weekend was yet another dud for my area.  There is one more chance of a shower or storm late tonight as the upper low drops in from the nw.  The model trend is to produce most of the rain north of CR.  The 3kNAM misses us completely.

I have finally  enter the  dry zone.   Basically  no rain in August, .08 once on a shower. If we miss out on the Tuesday  precip I may be looking  at a 15 to 20 period  of no rain. Everything  thing plenty green. But some new plantings are are struggling.

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Had a very heavy tiny cell track overhead yesterday dumping a little over .50" of beneficial rain.  I was hoping to get a good drenching of the garden variety so I wouldn't have to water the plants and that is exactly what happened.  ORD hit 92F yesterday making it the 15th day of the season hitting 90F or better which is avg for the season.  Prob tack on a couple more days this week before we get into some more comfortable wx Fri-Sun.  Looks like a top notch wx weekend on tap for Chicago.

 

 

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No rain overnight.  At this point, I just assume we'll get little or nothing so it won't be such a disappointment.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It’s amazing how the storms keep missing much of eastern Iowa!🙁I thought we surely should’ve seen one good round of storms by now, but it’s always north, south, or….. And yesterday’s clouds helped keep temps cooler, but didn’t help storm chances. Only up to 83° yesterday, but it felt much warmer with the high dews!

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Hot,Dry…rinse repeat.. till late this coming Sunday. 
 

We’ll see 99* through the week until a front brings us rain in the forecast this coming Sunday and through the week with temps 92-94*.   
 

it’s been an odd summer with rain, fronts and periods of rain.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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While not all that hot it has been very humid for the last 3 days. At Grand Rapids the dew points have been in the upper 60's to as high as the mid 70's over the last 3 days. The dew points at GRR have been a few degrees higher than other locations around the area. As I said while the humidly has been high the air temperatures have not been that high. The warmest accrual air temperature has been just 87 the highest dew point at Grand Rapids so far has been 75 and the reported highest heat index so far has been 94. At other locations the dew points have been between 2 to 5 degrees lower.

The overnight low here at my house was 73 at the airport they reported a overnight low of 70. At this time it is cloudy and 77 here with a dew point of 71. The last reading at GRR was 75 with a dew point of 71.

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Just got hit by another torrential band of rain that lasted 10 min...the line forming over the norther burbs (where they need it most) is forecast to drift south and couple possibly turn into strong/severe storms later today.

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HRRR at 5:00pm local time...

 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_9.png

 

 

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Some very impressive rain overnight in parts of Iowa and over the last few days in WI and MN.  Ever since the NWS destroyed their radar I haven't had a good site that I knew of to check radar estimated precip, but I have found a new one and it seems to be pretty accurate (link below for those that want to bookmark it).  Nearly 8" fell near Charles City, IA last night. 

 

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

 

image.thumb.png.5dd1efd282cb3d4acfce0d944230713f.png

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This is unreal! I got 0.3" of rain on Thursday but very little this weekend. Cedar Rapids just keeps getting missed over and over again! Of course, the strong storms are going to develop to the east of here and Cedar Rapids gets nothing! This has easily been the lousiest summer I have seen here in a long time. We had better get something today or tomorrow because of course, Cedar Rapids looks to stay hot and dry for the rest of the month after this. 

 

We need a thunderstorm to sit over us and drop 4-6" of rain to help get rid of the drought. 

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47 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Some very impressive rain overnight in parts of Iowa and over the last few days in WI and MN.  Ever since the NWS destroyed their radar I haven't had a good site that I knew of to check radar estimated precip, but I have found a new one and it seems to be pretty accurate (link below for those that want to bookmark it).  Nearly 8" fell near Charles City, IA last night. 

 

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

 

image.thumb.png.5dd1efd282cb3d4acfce0d944230713f.png

Was just coming in here to post that Nashua, IA received almost 9" of rain last night!

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3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Some very impressive rain overnight in parts of Iowa and over the last few days in WI and MN.  Ever since the NWS destroyed their radar I haven't had a good site that I knew of to check radar estimated precip, but I have found a new one and it seems to be pretty accurate (link below for those that want to bookmark it).  Nearly 8" fell near Charles City, IA last night. 

 

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

 

image.thumb.png.5dd1efd282cb3d4acfce0d944230713f.png

I had another part of this site bookmarked and kinda forgot about this map, so this reminded me again.

Another site I like to use if I want to see more than the current day’s precipitation is the IEM Automated Data Plotter. There are plenty of color schemes and a choice of any  time frame of any state, and or the entire Midwest too.  Here’s a link…http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=84&sector=IA&_ugc_state=IA&ugc=IAC153&src=mrms&opt=acc&usdm=no&ptype=c&sdate=2021%2F08%2F08&edate=2021%2F08%2F09&cmap=nipy_spectral&cmap_r=on&dpi=100&_fmt=png

And for a quick check on the current day I often use this site, especially the first map which will take you to the Time Machine if you tap on it to check previous day’s precip. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/index.phtml/precipitation

 

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It is warm and humid here today here is the 4 pm readings from GRR
Humidity    79%
Wind Speed    S 15 mph
Barometer    29.90 in (1011.9 mb)
Dewpoint    71°F (22°C)
Visibility    10.00 mi
Heat Index    80°F (27°C)
Last update    9 Aug 3:53 pm EDT
Here at my house it is cloudy and t 80 with a dew point of 72.

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One year ago today. Nice write up by NOAA. I was in bed awakened by my son (and wind) that the power had just gone out. The unusual  thing about this derecho - at least where I live, (the strongest missed me to the N) was longevity of the severe winds. At least 15-20 mins first round followed by another 10-15 mins of 57+mph winds.  Was out of power for exactly 50 hours. The longest stretch in my 18 years (now 19) in this house. Where were you when it happened if affected?

https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho/

Another very detailed write up-

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/f98352e2153b4865b99ba53b86021b65

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Coincidentally, on the anniversary of last year's Derecho, it was an eventful day across N IL yesterday with numerous Tornado's, but the one the caught my eye was the one up in McHenry county that track just south of my brothers place near Volo/Waucanda.  There wasn't a warning even issued but spotters saw a brief tornado touch down.  The heavens certainly blessed the northern burbs with heavy rainfall.  My local reporting station indicates 1.17" of precip fell which sounds about right.  Perfect scenario to be honest as I could pass on the severe stuff.

 

Large wedge Tornado near Paw Paw, IL...

Image

 

Nice video of the tornado near Sycamore...

 

1.jpg

 

Round 2 today???  On what will likely FEEL like the hottest day of the year, the NWS has issued the season's first Heat Advisory as Heat Index values reach the low 100's.  Many of you have dealt with these sorta temps this season, so this will be the first time for my area.  Thanks for sharing!  Haha, j/k...the atmosphere should be primed for severe wx later this evening.  I think this could be a big deal, esp front line winds if this line does come into fruition.

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Severe wx reports...

2.gif

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This weekend we will likely see a Hurricane track into the NE GOM where this years LRC hot spot exists.  We had a weak tropical system develop in this region last cycle and this cycle should produce a stronger storm.  

Both the Euro/GFS show a storm hugging the west coast of FL... @Clinton, are you anywhere near this potential track???

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This was from nearly 6 hours ago and way up by where Beltrami lives- but I do not recall a TS moving 85 mph before.

 

Special Weather Statement


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
220 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

MNZ006-100745-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
220 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Lake of
the Woods County through 245 AM CDT...

At 220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Carp, or 48 miles east of Roseau, moving northeast
at 85 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Baudette and Clementson around 230 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9486 4837 9495 4849 9516 4892 9469
      4888 9468 4883 9471 4878 9469 4874 9464
      4872 9459 4872 9456 4870 9454 4869 9445
      4870 9443 4859 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 229DEG 74KT 4857 9477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

This weekend we will likely see a Hurricane track into the NE GOM where this years LRC hot spot exists.  We had a weak tropical system develop in this region last cycle and this cycle should produce a stronger storm.  

Both the Euro/GFS show a storm hugging the west coast of FL... @Clinton, are you anywhere near this potential track???

Yes I am but we will be leaving Friday so I think we'll be out of here on time. I would expect it to hit somewhere between Tampa and Panama City. I am currently just outside of Pensacola.

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The HRRR continues to insist today's most widespread action will be from northern Missouri through central IL, with scattered cells farther north (more east of the river than west).

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 3kNAM, HRRR, and FV3 are all wildly different with the convection this afternoon and tonight.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well here at my house there was some lightning last night but there was no rain. 0.30" of rain did fall at the airport. The overnight low both here and at the airport was 71 at this time it is cloudy and 75 here with a dew point of 71. The last days have been warm and for this area very humid. So while NOT a heat wave it has been more like a humid wave. But the case can be made as to why there is no long term records keep for the dew points. 

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17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 3kNAM, HRRR, and FV3 are all wildly different with the convection this afternoon and tonight.

How do you think this is all going to play out? Do you think Cedar Rapids will get missed again, or do you think we are in a good spot to get heavy rain and strong thunderstorms? I would think the sunshine now would help us out and get stronger storms to develop.

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22 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

How do you think this is all going to play out? Do you think Cedar Rapids will get missed again, or do you think we are in a good spot to get heavy rain and strong thunderstorms? I would think the sunshine now would help us out and get stronger storms to develop.

I expect there will be scattered cells in our area this evening.  The instability is certainly there.  We just have to get lucky for once.  A year ago today we had high instability, but there was already a strengthening MCS moving in from the west.  Today we are capped and have to hope it breaks in time to get storms before everything moves off to the east and south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like the SPC has expanded the enhanced risk of severe weather to include CR. I sure hope the HRRR is wrong because that model has nothing here. The NAM has CR getting two rounds of strong storms. Having CR in the enhanced risk makes me feel better about us getting storms here later.

 

 

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This is going to be another bust for svr weather for most of IA. The instability is sky high-- but need something to set it of. Not happening.

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The 3kNAM, HRRR, and FV3 are all wildly different with the convection this afternoon and tonight.

yep, sadly models are little help.  Which is very often the case with severe weather.  It just shows how long we still have to go in modeling severe storms.  People always ask me if it's going to storm (because they know I watch the models) and I typically have to say, I really don't know.  Some models say yes, some say no.  You basically just have to watch the radar.  

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