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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Has the rain you guys are getting up north interfering with the harvest? 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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11 hours ago, Tom said:

We always welcome more members, esp from different regions on this site.  I rarely chime in outside of this Sub but occasionally do read some posts and the PNW forum is quite active.  I'm able to see the background things that go on when people make reports and they primarily come from the PNW!  😝

Our busiest time is during the cold season and usually starts picking up around Oct/Nov.  Hopefully you can make your move sooner than later to Indiana.  I hear its a great state and the people are kind.  What part of Indiana?

It would be sometime in the next 2-3 years once my mom in law retires. Just south of Indy at Greenwood.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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For those that are following the Greenwood fire in Arrowhead of MN- today has been very bad and the night may get worse with erratic winds from dying TS's with very little rain.--

 

Greenwood Fire Announcement for Aug 20 at 2:00 pm. The Greenwood Fire jumped over to the west side of Highway 2, just north of Stony Lake. Fire crews and aircraft are responding. The Lake County Sheriff's Department is onsite and evacuating residents. The fire crossed over a point designated as a Management Action Point, triggering evacuations in the Sand Lake and Stony Lake areas. (just N of Stony Lake is getting very close to HWY 1)
Lake County Emergency Management: 773-844-6449
Greenwood Fire Public Information Line: 218-499-9441
Greenwood Fire Phone Line for Media: 614-205-9333
The photos are from the road closure on Highway 1 and a photo of the extreme fire behavior.https://photos.bwca.com/w/WHITEWOLF-200821-162855.JPG

https://photos.bwca.com/w/WHITEWOLF-200821-162805.JPG

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Our High School football team has their sports drink scrimmage tonight. Front has passed and dew has dropped to 60 with northwest winds. Lows tonight are forecast to drop down to 55. Our son is a sophomore and we’re excited to see him battle for varsity time this year. Should I bring a jacket or sweatshirt?  That might be pushing it. 😁

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Since I last wrote- major situation taking place in the BWCA. 3 acre fire at 1:30 pm has now blown up to be able to be seen from space. It's the farthest E hot spot. Almost surely the USFS is scrambling to save peoples lives in a very remote area as I write. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-N_Minnesota-natcolorfire-12-1-100-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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It appears Omaha and Lincoln will be victims of a big break in the line of storms this evening.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Pyrocumulus being able to be seen now on Duluth radar -- echoes at the 100 mile ring in S.ONT in the Quetcio are from intense fires.image.thumb.png.e88f31a1724299bcaee243d1e025b0ae.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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11 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Grand total of 1.29" at KFAR today. Not a drought buster by any means, but it is basically what I was hoping for. 

I lot of people in Iowa would gladly take 1.29".

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

It appears Omaha and Lincoln will be victims of a big break in the line of storms this evening.

Yeah that was underwhelming. Skies looked dark, but Lincoln was barely missed to the south. Even in the SE corner of town we were just grazed by about 5 min of heavy rain. 

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Since I last wrote- major situation taking place in the BWCA. 3 acre fire at 1:30 pm has now blown up to be able to be seen from space. It's the farthest E hot spot. Almost surely the USFS is scrambling to save peoples lives in a very remote area as I write. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-N_Minnesota-natcolorfire-12-1-100-1&checked=usint-map&colorbar=undefined

Reports trickling in of people trapped in BWCA due to the John EK fire. USFS is very mum on this and likely has another Pagami Creek Fire situation on their hands (2011 SEPT fire that went from 80 acres to 60,000 in 8 hours) No one was killed in that, this time I have my doubts.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Looks like @Hawkeye and CR crew getting a decent soaking this morning along with the Dubuque area.

1.gif

 

 

Meantime, ORD hit 91F yesterday which is the 17th time of reaching 90F....this is the normally tally for the entire season.  Looking to tack on a couple more later next week as well as DP's reaching the oppressive category into the upper 70's.  It's gonna get sultry next week but precip chances are on the rise.

 

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Some interesting seasonal shifts are about to begin way up north over the Arctic circle as the Polar Vortex begins to "wake" up out of the summer doldrums.  All the models show an intensification of the Vortex directly over the Pole as we close out August and the Snow will begin to fall and expand in coverage.  It always perks my interest this time of year to see how nature suddenly flips into Autumn so abruptly across the Arctic circle.  It's fascinating to me to see the climatic "heartbeat" of nature as it "knows" when the seasons change. 

Anyway, some maps below showcase the flip towards Autumn Winter...

 

1.gif

 

Arctic Snows will begin to fall...

3.png

As the snows fall, so do the temps and that is clearly shown below as it falls near 0C...

 

5.png

 

As Autumn wx begins to appear for our members up north later next week, a battle of the seasons will fire up an active pattern leading to a potential widespread soaking across our northern half of the Sub Forum.  It appears many are in line to benefit from multiple rounds a storm clusters.  

0z Euro/EPS targeting the MSP region as the bullseye while the GEFS are a little farther south.  Nonetheless, its going to get active and many who have been dry will benefit.  IMO, mid next week could feature some intense storm clusters for parts of the Northwoods in MN/WI.

1.png

 

Through months end....

2.png

 

This temp pattern is setting up a classic battle zone....

4.png

 

 

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The line of storms, shockingly, held together and hit Cedar Rapids overnight.  I picked up a solid 0.56", easily my biggest rain event since June.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Here is a fun fact the last two winters at Grand Rapids there was only a total of 99.6" snow for both winters and that is the least amount of snow fall in two back to back winters here at Grand Rapids in the last 70 years and in that 70 years there have been 10 winters where more snow fell in one winter than in the last two.

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We had a high of 96* today.  Heat advisory over North Texas. 

I was out in it and it was blistering!  

Im ready for early Fall now, please.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The U.S. Navy Blue Angels put on a show over the Chicago lakefront yesterday and the wx today should be even better, however, for boaters it is prob not the ideal day as winds are coming down the lake producing waves up to 7ft.  I have plans to be in the city this afternoon so hopefully I'll get to see them roar over the skies..  I dunno about you, but to see these F-18 fighter jets brings out the kid in me.  It always gives me the chills to hear them roar overhead.

Speaking of which, "When Thunder Roars, stay indoors"...this is natures way of speaking and will likely be doing so for our members over the northern half of the Sub.  The last 10 days of the month look like a bounty of precip is heading directly where parts of the Upper MW/MW need it.

0z EPS...trending wetter for ya'll up north...someone dusted off the MSP magnet...

 

2.png

1.png

 

As the seasons begin to show real signs of change for the later few days on the month, the atmosphere is going to fire up some severe wx.  I was expecting to see the cooler air press a little earlier but it looks like it'll be delayed a couple of days for those of us farther south....better late then never I guess.

5-day temp trends...#AutumnIsComing

1.gif

 

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Models are trying to push much of the rain north over the next week.  Hell, the GFS is now showing no rain over the next ten days down here with an entire week of 95-100º heat.  WTF!?!  The half inch of rain a couple nights ago was great, but it can't stop there.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are trying to push much of the rain north over the next week.  Hell, the GFS is now showing no rain over the next ten days down here with an entire week of 95-100º heat.  WTF!?!  The half inch of rain a couple nights ago was great, but it can't stop there.

Lol, at least some spots in Iowa got rain. At my shop / farm  near Ottumwa  Ive only had  .15 since July 30th.  Basically  no rain for 23 days.

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Looks like one more week of hot and humid weather.  If we can make it to next Sunday and beyond, temps start to drop into the 70's and lows are 60 or below.  Irrigation is either done or very close to being done in this area.  Farmers I've talked to say it is the least amount of water they've used on their crops in many years.  Dryland corn and beans look amazing also.  

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The latest GFS over the next twelve days.  🤢

I sure hope this model is under-doing the amount of southward spillage of the convection to the north.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro at least sags more convection into the northern half of Iowa over the next week.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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