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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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By Friday we will see a high of 94 which will be a relief.  However Tuesday we can welcome a high of 90.  
What a relief!   We’re very tired of these high and dry 90’s.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We had a wonderful time on the Chicago river yesterday enjoying the Blue Angels put on a show.  Tons of boaters, anglers and tourists were out and about in the city.  As you will see below, skies were mostly clear and with a nice NE breeze off the lake and temps in the mid 70’s it was Perfection!  Glad to have been able to see these jets fly overhead for about an hour.

 

Edit: Apologies for the BLEEP in the last video...my excitement got to me when the jets literally flew right over us about a couple hundred feet!

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Looking real good for CR.  I just ran out to get the gauge set up and move pots into the garage.  The outflow was pretty gusty.

At the moment it looks like storms will pass north of Sparky, but radar shows the outflow boundary diving south so more storms should bubble up behind it.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Storms got closer than I expected, but the southward turn was a hair to late. Only some sprinkles with maybe a little shower soon at the tail end. My August total is only 0.30” attm. 
 

Before I finished typing this there were some close lightning strikes, so went to look at the clouds as another cell developed over and just a mile south. Had a good little downpour with brief high rainfall rates even with orange radar returns overhead.

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1.13" in my gauge.  😀  The rain lasted 90 minutes so it was able to soak in well.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Got 0.46” here. The first cell dropped .30” with about .15” from the last shower.  Not much, but better than expected. (.65” half mile ne. and .85”  three miles east.)

I think C.R. and Waterloo had their driest summer (June-Aug.) on record before today’s rainfall nullified that.

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6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

The bad news is this rainfall will only add to the dews this week that were going to be high anyway.

That's the truth. Barely any rain here since June and the grass is fried but dews still have no issue hitting 70. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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OMG! I know its August, but, dang it, its going to be a scorcher the next 10 days and maybe longer. I don't see a below average day for all 16 days on the latest GFS 12Z run. (Maybe a few in there)Only thing that might give us a below average day would be if we get some convection 1 week from today. 

We have not had a wet summer, I would say more average. When we have received the rains, its been  torrential rain. Pretty good rains in KC the last two weeks, but they have been fast rains and only lasting 2-3 hours. Temps have been above average for the summer and after this heat wave, we will finish August around +3. I would say a pretty typical summer here in KC. 

Warm Autumn you say, TOM?? I seen the map you posted from a long range model....WARM 

LRC complaint:

Gary calls this year's LRC pattern a 46 day cycle. Today is August 23rd, -46 days gets you back to July 9th. Starting on July 10th and lasting 13 days, we had 2 days at average, 9 days below to well below average, and 2 days above average on temps. So, you would call this period a cooler then average pattern. I also had 4 days of rain totaling 3.1 inches.  Fast forward 46 days, we are on the first day of what appears to be a 10 day heat wave and maybe longer with little to no moisture. 

My question, how is this cycling?? This is not the same pattern from 46 days ago. 

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18 minutes ago, MIKEKC said:

OMG! I know its August, but, dang it, its going to be a scorcher the next 10 days and maybe longer. I don't see a below average day for all 16 days on the latest GFS 12Z run. (Maybe a few in there)Only thing that might give us a below average day would be if we get some convection 1 week from today. 

We have not had a wet summer, I would say more average. When we have received the rains, its been  torrential rain. Pretty good rains in KC the last two weeks, but they have been fast rains and only lasting 2-3 hours. Temps have been above average for the summer and after this heat wave, we will finish August around +3. I would say a pretty typical summer here in KC. 

Warm Autumn you say, TOM?? I seen the map you posted from a long range model....WARM 

LRC complaint:

Gary calls this year's LRC pattern a 46 day cycle. Today is August 23rd, -46 days gets you back to July 9th. Starting on July 10th and lasting 13 days, we had 2 days at average, 9 days below to well below average, and 2 days above average on temps. So, you would call this period a cooler then average pattern. I also had 4 days of rain totaling 3.1 inches.  Fast forward 46 days, we are on the first day of what appears to be a 10 day heat wave and maybe longer with little to no moisture. 

My question, how is this cycling?? This is not the same pattern from 46 days ago. 

MikeKC, this is exactly what my post of few days ago suggested.  IMO, the LRC is very useful and at times, it is by far one of the best LR forecasting tools in the Autumn, Winter and Spring...once we get into mid/late Summer, I feel that it looses its "umph" in forecasting.  Is it bc the jet stream weakens?  Or bc the cyclical pattern sorta fades away?  I'm not completely sure but IMHO, it's much more difficult to predict the LR pattern in the months of July/Aug and into early Sept.  Hurricanes are a bit different animal when trying to predict a potential track using the LRC but temp/precip patterns in the general CONUS is harder.

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8 hours ago, Sparky said:

Got 0.46” here. The first cell dropped .30” with about .15” from the last shower.  Not much, but better than expected. (.65” half mile ne. and .85”  three miles east.)

I think C.R. and Waterloo had their driest summer (June-Aug.) on record before today’s rainfall nullified that.

Actually, I’m not sure about that statement after all. This chart was as of August 18.

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Not 1, not 2...but 3...possibly 4 solid rounds of storms are targeting the northern regions by months end...blessings are underway!

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You couldn't script this any better than this but the idea that the northern half of the Sub will benefit from moisture is the epitome of what these maps show. #I80North...are we tracking yet???

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That leads us into a new month which is looking like big changes are underway as we head into Labor Day.  The idea that #Autumn is lurking as we flip the calendar is indeed showing merit, esp for those who have been Frying all summer long up north.

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We’ll see 3 more days in the high 90’s then the tropics will send us a week in the low90’s.  
 

Texas usually awaits tropical action to break into our back door and shake things up.  The heat isn’t over but it’s a good sign.  We’re so ready for that 1st cool morning.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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While I would not call it a true "heatwave" the Grand Rapids area now has had 6 days in a row of highs in the mid to upper 80's and lows in the mid to upper 60's It has been rather humid also for the past 6 days. The overnight low here at my house was a mild 68. The official low at GRR looks to be 67. At this time here at my house it is cloudy and 71 with a dew point of 68 while at the airport the 8AM reading was 70 with a dew point there of 68.

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1 hour ago, Andie said:

We’ll see 3 more days in the high 90’s then the tropics will send us a week in the low90’s.  
 

Texas usually awaits tropical action to break into our back door and shake things up.  The heat isn’t over but it’s a good sign.  We’re so ready for that 1st cool morning.  

I think the Gulf is about to get supper active in Sept, I think there is a chance of 3 or 4 hurricanes having an impact.

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5 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Heat index today for values from 104-109.  Went to watch JV Football last night.  Horribly muggy night and I wasn't playing in full pads.  Boys were exhausted, but excited about the victory.  

Congrats!

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

I think the Gulf is about to get supper active in Sept, I think there is a chance of 3 or 4 hurricanes having an impact.

Completely agree.   Yucatán looks ripe for TS.  All of this tropical air will eventually collide in Texas with cooler air.  Late summer weather in Texas may be about to get bumpy.  

We’ve seen it many times but few pay attention it until it explodes into big weather and is a lot more fun tracking. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The thunderstorm track may be similar to yesterday morning except this time we’re approaching peak heating! Might get interesting after awhile, but the CAMS seem to be pretty clueless in not showing much action where storms currently are and may move.

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