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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


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I'm afraid everything will miss north of me tonight.  The CAMs are not promising.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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13 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'm afraid everything will miss north of me tonight.  The CAMs are not promising.

It’s trying to sink south, maybe, but I’m not very optimistic here. Looks decent for CR.

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26 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Definitely sinking south, and now nice cells west of CR.

Yeah, and they keep building south and weakening farther north.  It might just be general rain when it gets here, with heavier stuff down by you.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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24 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Yeah, and they keep building south and weakening farther north.  It might just be general rain when it gets here, with heavier stuff down by you.

Might even miss me. I wonder if they’re following this n/s boundary. Either way, not a big deal it seems.

8A9C849B-35C5-4CE2-BA1F-AFC43E5ADB38.thumb.gif.30a55d9dfcce5c2a04a1b3500c2c73c5.gif

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We’ll, I’m sorry to say we just got shut out of our rain. Also, hurricane usually spare Texas the heat and help usher in an earlier Fall. 😢.  Perhaps something will drop in from the north.  
…oh well.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Can see nonstop lightning from this cell! Velocity shows good rotation for awhile now.
 

I’m thinking this severe storm is part of an MCS that’s developing over Iowa and part of the same system of cells that’s getting underway in northern Iowa. Just voicing my thoughts and observations on here.

Later……Looks like I was wrong again.

882086A8-5BF3-4DDC-AED9-514A1264DEB6.thumb.png.4e8f26d593b1f80a8c804aaabb409501.png

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42 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Can see nonstop lightning from this cell! Velocity shows good rotation for awhile now.
 

I’m thinking this severe storm is part of an MCS that’s developing over Iowa and part of the same system of cells that’s getting underway in northern Iowa. Just voicing my thoughts and observations on here.882086A8-5BF3-4DDC-AED9-514A1264DEB6.thumb.png.4e8f26d593b1f80a8c804aaabb409501.png

Ive been watching  that closely.   Might catch Ottumwa  after all.  Torrents  of rain with it. 3 to 6 inches per hour.  

Screenshot_20210826-223006_Gallery.jpg

Screenshot_20210826-222954_Gallery.jpg

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Thankfully, no rain here yesterday which was needed after nearly 3" IMBY over the past few days.  The grass is growing like weeds again.  Of note, ORD hit 90F yesterday which officially makes this a late August Heat Wave and likely to add a couple more days to this stretch of Hot/Humid wx which could end up being the longest Heat Wave in a few years.

 

 

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The well advertised deluge of rain is inundating MN and Wisco...

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=40&interval=10&year=2021&month=8&day=26&hour=21&minute=0

 

Is this natures way of saying, or rather, suggesting that the pattern is about the break...for good???  I sometimes find that nature does this in peculiar ways when trying to forecast LR patterns.  On these final days of August, most of us will bake in the Heat and stifling Humidity.  Are we ready for Fall???  According to the 0z EPS, a significant pattern flip will be upon our Sub Forum.  Take a gander at the 5-day mean temp anomaly through the extended...I wouldn't be surprised if there are some isolated spots in the Northwoods that will see their 1st Frosts in early Sept.  I think it's time for a Sept thread...maybe today or prob tomorrow I'll go ahead and put one together unless someone else would like to.

1.gif

 

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First Friday night of High School football in Nebraska.  Going to be a warm day, but hopefully around here dews may stay in the low 60's instead of mid 70's.  I help our varsity team by being another set of eyes in the press box and try to give some help/advice in some situations for the Defensive Coordinator.  

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We’ll, I’m sorry to say we just got shut out of our rain. Also, hurricane usually spare Texas the heat and help usher in an earlier Fall. 😢.  Perhaps something will drop in from the north.  
…oh well.  
Sept. 1 will see us at or very near 100*

 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Grand Rapids now has had 3 days in a row of 90 or better and is now up to 5 officially for the summer season. I had 0.83″ of rain yesterday afternoon in a very heavy downpour. No rain was reported officially for Grand Rapids. The overnight low both here at my house and officially at GRR was 71 At this time it is mostly cloudy here and 73 with a dew point of 71.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Grand Rapids now has had 3 days in a row of 90 or better and is now up to 5 officially for the summer season. I had 0.83″ of rain yesterday afternoon in a very heavy downpour. No rain was reported officially for Grand Rapids. The overnight low both here at my house and officially at GRR was 71 At this time it is mostly cloudy here and 73 with a dew point of 71.

Not far away from you eastward and got .18" of rain while the sun never stopped shining as the cell dried up.  Downpour for 10 minutes with sun was fun to watch.  

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

The well advertised deluge of rain is inundating MN and Wisco...

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=40&interval=10&year=2021&month=8&day=26&hour=21&minute=0

 

Is this natures way of saying, or rather, suggesting that the pattern is about the break...for good???  I sometimes find that nature does this in peculiar ways when trying to forecast LR patterns.  On these final days of August, most of us will bake in the Heat and stifling Humidity.  Are we ready for Fall???  According to the 0z EPS, a significant pattern flip will be upon our Sub Forum.  Take a gander at the 5-day mean temp anomaly through the extended...I wouldn't be surprised if there are some isolated spots in the Northwoods that will see their 1st Frosts in early Sept.  I think it's time for a Sept thread...maybe today or prob tomorrow I'll go ahead and put one together unless someone else would like to.

1.gif

 

I sure hope so Tom! I am ready for fall! Loving this much needed rain. Supposed to be a hot one tomorrow again, but looks to cool down next week which I am super excited for! I'm ready to decorate for fall, but it needs to feel like it first!

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13 minutes ago, Northland09 said:

I sure hope so Tom! I am ready for fall! Loving this much needed rain. Supposed to be a hot one tomorrow again, but looks to cool down next week which I am super excited for! I'm ready to decorate for fall, but it needs to feel like it first!

Same here!  I just got done mowing my lawn and I'm dripping with sweat.  Barely any wind around and its quite soupy outside.  The ground is extremely moist which makes it easy pulling weeds out with the roots intact.  I think you'll be enjoying a cooler Sept airmass next week.

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I picked up 0.15" overnight.  That will probably be our last rain til at least late Sunday.  Models have never been bullish about Sunday, either.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Sunny and hot again today, it's currently 89 with a heat index of 96.  Ida is officially a hurricane and looks to make landfall in Louisiana Sunday evening as a cat 3 or possibly a cat 4.  Conditions are very favorable for rapid strengthening.  Looks like all the moisture will push off to my east.  I was hoping to get a little something off of it but it's not likely.

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It's been ridiculously hot the past few days (98-100 temps, 105-110 heat index). I'd be completely fine with the temperature never getting above 85 again for the rest of my life. A severe storm in pushing through the Omaha with confirmed hail. Radar not very promising for Lincoln. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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2 hours ago, snowstorm83 said:

It's been ridiculously hot the past few days (98-100 temps, 105-110 heat index). I'd be completely fine with the temperature never getting above 85 again for the rest of my life. A severe storm in pushing through the Omaha with confirmed hail. Radar not very promising for Lincoln. 

This humidity is why many move west. 

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6 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

This humidity is why many move west. 

 Down here we're hoping that statement holds true.  It seems like half of California has moved here.  It isn't the land of milk and honey most thinki t is.  It's our seasons are somewhat cold, briefly pleasant and hotter than hell with humidity.  

Many native Texans count on our humidity and dreadful heat indexes to send at least half of them packing up.  One more summer should help.  

I hear Colorado is nice! 😉

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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6 hours ago, Andie said:

 Down here we're hoping that statement holds true.  It seems like half of California has moved here.  It isn't the land of milk and honey most thinki t is.  It's our seasons are somewhat cold, briefly pleasant and hotter than hell with humidity.  

Many native Texans count on our humidity and dreadful heat indexes to send at least half of them packing up.  One more summer should help.  

I hear Colorado is nice! 😉

The same can be said by all the people trying to move from CA/OR/WA into Arizona.  It's gotten so bad that the CA home buyers are bidding out the first time home buyers in Arizona!  That's not what you want to see.  Anyway, in terms of the wx, last summer was ridiculously HOT but this summer has been abnormally cool since July when the Monsoon has fired up.  I remember last year on our drive back from So Cal to PHX on the I-10 hwy, I saw several cars packed to the roof driving into the valley of PHX.  It is really quite something seeing this mass migration of people for various reasons...I'm sure some of them are basing that decision on the weather.

Speaking of the wx, we'll be baking and sweating in the heat and humidity today.  A "Taste of TX" in the forecast today with a predicted high of 95F.  Won't be hard to get there since we have current conditions of 79F/72F.  

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On the topic of Hurricane Ida, this storm is trending to become a beast...eary similarities to Hurricane Katrina.  Here is a graphic showing on our local mets tracking Katrina 16 years ago to the day for a landfall tomorrow.

 

Image

 

King Euro has been following the GFS lead on this one and now has a major CAT 4 slamming into LA...max wind gusts exceeding 130 mph.

 

 

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This is a fascinating stat for the PHX valley regarding the Monsoon season and what is on the table...

Image

 

This quote was written back on 8/21 so it has to be updated bc I believe there were a couple days added since then.

Quote

PHOENIX - Phoenix may soon set another weather record after an extremely busy monsoon season.

The National Weather Service said on Saturday that monsoon season 2021 is seven days behind an 1896 record of 24 total days with measurable rainfall between June 15 and Sept. 30.

 

This means Phoenix has about a month to beat the 1896 record.

 

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The overnight low here at my house was a very warm 75 the official overnight low at GRR was 73. If it stays above 71 until midnight a new record minimum for August 28th will be set the current record is 71 set in 1973 and 1948. At this time it is clear here at my house with a temperature of 76 and a dew point of 73. The last reading at GRR was 75 with a dew point of 72. At Grand Rapids the dew point the lowest dew point in the last 72 hours has been 69 the highest reported dew point reading at GRR in that 72 hours had been 74.

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

The same can be said by all the people trying to move from CA/OR/WA into Arizona.  It's gotten so bad that the CA home buyers are bidding out the first time home buyers in Arizona!  That's not what you want to see.  Anyway, in terms of the wx, last summer was ridiculously HOT but this summer has been abnormally cool since July when the Monsoon has fired up.  I remember last year on our drive back from So Cal to PHX on the I-10 hwy, I saw several cars packed to the roof driving into the valley of PHX.  It is really quite something seeing this mass migration of people for various reasons...I'm sure some of them are basing that decision on the weather.

Speaking of the wx, we'll be baking and sweating in the heat and humidity today.  A "Taste of TX" in the forecast today with a predicted high of 95F.  Won't be hard to get there since we have current conditions of 79F/72F.  

It breaks my heart to see California go through the trials it is having.  It needs better governance, and soon.   Perhaps then the swarms of people leaving will stop and reverse.  The weather is a real draw.   
I had an Uncle that lived in Roseville.  He also did a great deal of work in the Plumas Forest.  Its fires would break his heart.  
My husband is from Tucson and our family out there is challenged by the changes- both climate and influx of Californians.  
Here we are planning to leave the DFW area.  While the value of our home is way up, so is land though we are leaving the giant metro.  The traffic is becoming a nightmare.  Overall the changes are very challenging.  It must be very bad to make so many flee a gorgeous state.  
my prayer is they won’t bring the nexus of their troubles here and just repeat the mistake.  Texas is an extraordinary place.  Hot but worth it for natives.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The rain outlook for east-central Iowa has really dried up through at least next week. 🙁

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It is now up to 90 here at my house with a dew point of 78 that is good for a heat index of 105. The 2 PM official reading for GRR is 90 with a dew point of 74 that is good for a heat index of 99. The last time it was 90 or better on this date was in 2007.

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Another 90/80 day! Too many to count in southern Iowa this year. Ive see over 35 90 degree days and its passed 80 dewpoint  about 20 days!   Todays high 93 and 81 dewpoint.  Its easier  to endure when its raining  regularly. But in Aug at my home just 1.20 has fallen.  

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Another thunderstorm moving through. We've made up the deficit quite nicely with all these rounds of rain over the past couple of days.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 8.9"

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