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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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Flipped the A/C on yesterday and prob won't turn it off till later next week as it stands now.  For the time being, its a relatively warm and comfortable morning 73F/61F with clear skies.  Hoping to get some cells to develop this afternoon.  The next few days will feature several waves over the region as a typical summer pattern sets up.  I have a rooftop party I was invited to on Sat near Uptown so I'm looking forward to that and might have to dodge some storms.

0z Euro...pretty generous through Wed...

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Alright, as we near the end of next week, I think the models are starting to digest the development of the NW PAC ridge around the 10th/11th alongside a west-based Greenland Block allowing a trough to swing through our Sub by next weekend.  Some pretty big changes in the modeling for Week 2 according to the latest 0z EPS...hats off to the JMA & CFSv2 weeklies for "seeing" this pattern.  Its looking cooler for Week 2...in fact, I just dug a bit deeper and its looking a lot cooler and wetter esp near the MW/GL's region.  The idea of re-surging troughs coming down out of Canada could finally be coming into fruition.  Let's hope it continues because this type of pattern would bring much needed relief up north and west of here.

 

Next 7 days off the 0z EPS....

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The Euro Seasonal came in yesterday and it has certainly trended towards the cooler and wetter look the CFSv2 has been rock steady on.  Take a gander at the 500mb and temp/precip anomalies.  What is catching my eyes is what is going on up in Canada....boy, Oh Canada, your going to be heading right into Autumn/Winter this month and those AN precip anomalies will prob include Snowfall.

500mb...Archipelago Vortex looks interesting for many reasons...

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Temp/Precip... @Andie @OKwx2k4your going back to the Ol' pattern that set up heading into Summer...meanwhile, the model is suggesting AN temps near the GL's...ehh, I'm not buying it based on the teleconnections and blocking patterns showing up in the LR.

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The overnight low here was a mild 64 and it looks like the official overnight low at GRR was 62 At this time it is cloudy here with some rain to the west over the lake. The first 5 days of August have been below average here at GR. At this time it is cloudy and 73 here.

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There was a line of storms that raced down the lakefront last night but it didn't amount to much and only about 0.25" of precip.  The northern burbs, where they need it most, got 2 rounds of storms yesterday which was needed badly.  My brothers wife said the ponds are evaporating from the lack of rain.  Meanwhile, our friends up north near MSP are about to get slammed by some storms.  I'm really diggin' the summery pattern over the next several days across the majority of the GL's/MW region.  It does look like many members on here are in the zone of opportunity for storms to fire up.

 

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0z Euro over the next 5 days....

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The models earlier this week were overdone with the heat and now the forecast here locally are temps in the upper 80's and maybe a couple days near 90 or thereabouts.  It's amazing to me how much WGN loves to pump the Heat as much as they do.  The producer is a big fan of Hot weather..go figure...they had low 90's for this weekend for days this past week and are still the only ones forecasting 95F for next Tue.  Besides that, they do a pretty darn good job with everything else they do. 

Meanwhile, the models are all starting to lock in on a "Friday the 13th Summer Cold Front"....it took a little bit, but that ridge off the west coast and blocking near Greenland are cycling back and will bring many of us a refreshing airmass for the following weekend.  The same pattern will fire back up in the desert SW as a surge of moisture comes up from the Baja into the deserts and most of the ag belt region should benefit as well.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

There was a line of storms that raced down the lakefront last night but it didn't amount to much and only about 0.25" of precip.  The northern burbs, where they need it most, got 2 rounds of storms yesterday which was needed badly.  My brothers wife said the ponds are evaporating from the lack of rain.  Meanwhile, our friends up north near MSP are about to get slammed by some storms.  I'm really diggin' the summery pattern over the next several days across the majority of the GL's/MW region.  It does look like many members on here are in the zone of opportunity for storms to fire up.

 

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0z Euro over the next 5 days....

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I'm in St Paul this weekend and the storm complex rolled in around 6am and lasted most of the morning. Lots of thunder and lightning.

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Grass is turning noticeably brown in many spots. Despite that, it’s a humid and dreary day. I’m about to be out of town for 11 days, hopefully we start moving into a better pattern by then.

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Omaha is really getting dumped on tonight.  There are a lot of 1.5-3.0+" reports from across the area.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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44 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Omaha is really getting dumped on tonight.  There are a lot of 1.5-3.0+" reports from across the area.

There are widespread reports of 3" to nearly 4" across Omaha tonight.  The comma head of the MCS crawled across the city.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I had a great time last night up on the rooftop near the lake.  Thankfully, we had a nice lake breeze that was caused by the outflows from the storms up in Wisco and they also played a big role by somewhat blocking out the sunlight from the anvil cloud tops.  As the grill master in charge, it was very humid and I couldn't imagine grilling in full sun and warmer temps...esp when your sipping on cocktails!  

Meanwhile, its a very warm and muggy morning 77F/69F...ORD & STL have the warmest temp in the entire region....yeesh!

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Good morning from warm and muggy Memphis. We are spending a day here on our way to Florida. Looks like rain is moving in back home and a chance of severe weather later today. As for for here in Memphis it will be dry with temps in the 90s and humid.

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Here at my house I recorded 0.17" of rain fall overnight. The overnight low here was a warm 70. The official low looks to have been 72 but there was only around 0.05" of rain fall at the airport. At the current time the official temperature is 73 with a DP of 72. Yesterday with a H/L of 84/66 was the 1st day of this August that the mean was above average. After the first 7 days the mean at GR is 69.4 and that is -2.9 for the month so far. 
 

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The entire weekend was yet another dud for my area.  There is one more chance of a shower or storm late tonight as the upper low drops in from the nw.  The model trend is to produce most of the rain north of CR.  The 3kNAM misses us completely.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The entire weekend was yet another dud for my area.  There is one more chance of a shower or storm late tonight as the upper low drops in from the nw.  The model trend is to produce most of the rain north of CR.  The 3kNAM misses us completely.

Yeah,  pretty sad.  I’m not optimistic about tonight either.  

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The entire weekend was yet another dud for my area.  There is one more chance of a shower or storm late tonight as the upper low drops in from the nw.  The model trend is to produce most of the rain north of CR.  The 3kNAM misses us completely.

I have finally  enter the  dry zone.   Basically  no rain in August, .08 once on a shower. If we miss out on the Tuesday  precip I may be looking  at a 15 to 20 period  of no rain. Everything  thing plenty green. But some new plantings are are struggling.

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Had a very heavy tiny cell track overhead yesterday dumping a little over .50" of beneficial rain.  I was hoping to get a good drenching of the garden variety so I wouldn't have to water the plants and that is exactly what happened.  ORD hit 92F yesterday making it the 15th day of the season hitting 90F or better which is avg for the season.  Prob tack on a couple more days this week before we get into some more comfortable wx Fri-Sun.  Looks like a top notch wx weekend on tap for Chicago.

 

 

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No rain overnight.  At this point, I just assume we'll get little or nothing so it won't be such a disappointment.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It’s amazing how the storms keep missing much of eastern Iowa!🙁I thought we surely should’ve seen one good round of storms by now, but it’s always north, south, or….. And yesterday’s clouds helped keep temps cooler, but didn’t help storm chances. Only up to 83° yesterday, but it felt much warmer with the high dews!

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Hot,Dry…rinse repeat.. till late this coming Sunday. 
 

We’ll see 99* through the week until a front brings us rain in the forecast this coming Sunday and through the week with temps 92-94*.   
 

it’s been an odd summer with rain, fronts and periods of rain.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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While not all that hot it has been very humid for the last 3 days. At Grand Rapids the dew points have been in the upper 60's to as high as the mid 70's over the last 3 days. The dew points at GRR have been a few degrees higher than other locations around the area. As I said while the humidly has been high the air temperatures have not been that high. The warmest accrual air temperature has been just 87 the highest dew point at Grand Rapids so far has been 75 and the reported highest heat index so far has been 94. At other locations the dew points have been between 2 to 5 degrees lower.

The overnight low here at my house was 73 at the airport they reported a overnight low of 70. At this time it is cloudy and 77 here with a dew point of 71. The last reading at GRR was 75 with a dew point of 71.

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Just got hit by another torrential band of rain that lasted 10 min...the line forming over the norther burbs (where they need it most) is forecast to drift south and couple possibly turn into strong/severe storms later today.

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HRRR at 5:00pm local time...

 

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Some very impressive rain overnight in parts of Iowa and over the last few days in WI and MN.  Ever since the NWS destroyed their radar I haven't had a good site that I knew of to check radar estimated precip, but I have found a new one and it seems to be pretty accurate (link below for those that want to bookmark it).  Nearly 8" fell near Charles City, IA last night. 

 

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

 

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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This is unreal! I got 0.3" of rain on Thursday but very little this weekend. Cedar Rapids just keeps getting missed over and over again! Of course, the strong storms are going to develop to the east of here and Cedar Rapids gets nothing! This has easily been the lousiest summer I have seen here in a long time. We had better get something today or tomorrow because of course, Cedar Rapids looks to stay hot and dry for the rest of the month after this. 

 

We need a thunderstorm to sit over us and drop 4-6" of rain to help get rid of the drought. 

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47 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Some very impressive rain overnight in parts of Iowa and over the last few days in WI and MN.  Ever since the NWS destroyed their radar I haven't had a good site that I knew of to check radar estimated precip, but I have found a new one and it seems to be pretty accurate (link below for those that want to bookmark it).  Nearly 8" fell near Charles City, IA last night. 

 

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

 

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Was just coming in here to post that Nashua, IA received almost 9" of rain last night!

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3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Some very impressive rain overnight in parts of Iowa and over the last few days in WI and MN.  Ever since the NWS destroyed their radar I haven't had a good site that I knew of to check radar estimated precip, but I have found a new one and it seems to be pretty accurate (link below for those that want to bookmark it).  Nearly 8" fell near Charles City, IA last night. 

 

https://www.iweathernet.com/total-rainfall-map-24-hours-to-72-hours

 

image.thumb.png.5dd1efd282cb3d4acfce0d944230713f.png

I had another part of this site bookmarked and kinda forgot about this map, so this reminded me again.

Another site I like to use if I want to see more than the current day’s precipitation is the IEM Automated Data Plotter. There are plenty of color schemes and a choice of any  time frame of any state, and or the entire Midwest too.  Here’s a link…http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=84&sector=IA&_ugc_state=IA&ugc=IAC153&src=mrms&opt=acc&usdm=no&ptype=c&sdate=2021%2F08%2F08&edate=2021%2F08%2F09&cmap=nipy_spectral&cmap_r=on&dpi=100&_fmt=png

And for a quick check on the current day I often use this site, especially the first map which will take you to the Time Machine if you tap on it to check previous day’s precip. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/index.phtml/precipitation

 

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It is warm and humid here today here is the 4 pm readings from GRR
Humidity    79%
Wind Speed    S 15 mph
Barometer    29.90 in (1011.9 mb)
Dewpoint    71°F (22°C)
Visibility    10.00 mi
Heat Index    80°F (27°C)
Last update    9 Aug 3:53 pm EDT
Here at my house it is cloudy and t 80 with a dew point of 72.

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