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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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This supercell is a beauty

KMVX - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 8_51 PM.png

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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One year ago today. Nice write up by NOAA. I was in bed awakened by my son (and wind) that the power had just gone out. The unusual  thing about this derecho - at least where I live, (the strongest missed me to the N) was longevity of the severe winds. At least 15-20 mins first round followed by another 10-15 mins of 57+mph winds.  Was out of power for exactly 50 hours. The longest stretch in my 18 years (now 19) in this house. Where were you when it happened if affected?

https://www.weathernationtv.com/news/one-year-ago-the-midwest-derecho/

Another very detailed write up-

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/f98352e2153b4865b99ba53b86021b65

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Coincidentally, on the anniversary of last year's Derecho, it was an eventful day across N IL yesterday with numerous Tornado's, but the one the caught my eye was the one up in McHenry county that track just south of my brothers place near Volo/Waucanda.  There wasn't a warning even issued but spotters saw a brief tornado touch down.  The heavens certainly blessed the northern burbs with heavy rainfall.  My local reporting station indicates 1.17" of precip fell which sounds about right.  Perfect scenario to be honest as I could pass on the severe stuff.

 

Large wedge Tornado near Paw Paw, IL...

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Nice video of the tornado near Sycamore...

 

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Round 2 today???  On what will likely FEEL like the hottest day of the year, the NWS has issued the season's first Heat Advisory as Heat Index values reach the low 100's.  Many of you have dealt with these sorta temps this season, so this will be the first time for my area.  Thanks for sharing!  Haha, j/k...the atmosphere should be primed for severe wx later this evening.  I think this could be a big deal, esp front line winds if this line does come into fruition.

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Severe wx reports...

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I was sadly missed well off to the north by every thunderstorm last night. The window is closing for heavy rain, and I'm still in a severe drought.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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This weekend we will likely see a Hurricane track into the NE GOM where this years LRC hot spot exists.  We had a weak tropical system develop in this region last cycle and this cycle should produce a stronger storm.  

Both the Euro/GFS show a storm hugging the west coast of FL... @Clinton, are you anywhere near this potential track???

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This was from nearly 6 hours ago and way up by where Beltrami lives- but I do not recall a TS moving 85 mph before.

 

Special Weather Statement


Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
220 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

MNZ006-100745-
Lake Of The Woods MN-
220 AM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Lake of
the Woods County through 245 AM CDT...

At 220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Carp, or 48 miles east of Roseau, moving northeast
at 85 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Baudette and Clementson around 230 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4837 9486 4837 9495 4849 9516 4892 9469
      4888 9468 4883 9471 4878 9469 4874 9464
      4872 9459 4872 9456 4870 9454 4869 9445
      4870 9443 4859 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 0720Z 229DEG 74KT 4857 9477

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

 

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

This weekend we will likely see a Hurricane track into the NE GOM where this years LRC hot spot exists.  We had a weak tropical system develop in this region last cycle and this cycle should produce a stronger storm.  

Both the Euro/GFS show a storm hugging the west coast of FL... @Clinton, are you anywhere near this potential track???

Yes I am but we will be leaving Friday so I think we'll be out of here on time. I would expect it to hit somewhere between Tampa and Panama City. I am currently just outside of Pensacola.

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The HRRR continues to insist today's most widespread action will be from northern Missouri through central IL, with scattered cells farther north (more east of the river than west).

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The 3kNAM, HRRR, and FV3 are all wildly different with the convection this afternoon and tonight.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well here at my house there was some lightning last night but there was no rain. 0.30" of rain did fall at the airport. The overnight low both here and at the airport was 71 at this time it is cloudy and 75 here with a dew point of 71. The last days have been warm and for this area very humid. So while NOT a heat wave it has been more like a humid wave. But the case can be made as to why there is no long term records keep for the dew points. 

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17 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The 3kNAM, HRRR, and FV3 are all wildly different with the convection this afternoon and tonight.

How do you think this is all going to play out? Do you think Cedar Rapids will get missed again, or do you think we are in a good spot to get heavy rain and strong thunderstorms? I would think the sunshine now would help us out and get stronger storms to develop.

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22 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

How do you think this is all going to play out? Do you think Cedar Rapids will get missed again, or do you think we are in a good spot to get heavy rain and strong thunderstorms? I would think the sunshine now would help us out and get stronger storms to develop.

I expect there will be scattered cells in our area this evening.  The instability is certainly there.  We just have to get lucky for once.  A year ago today we had high instability, but there was already a strengthening MCS moving in from the west.  Today we are capped and have to hope it breaks in time to get storms before everything moves off to the east and south.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looks like the SPC has expanded the enhanced risk of severe weather to include CR. I sure hope the HRRR is wrong because that model has nothing here. The NAM has CR getting two rounds of strong storms. Having CR in the enhanced risk makes me feel better about us getting storms here later.

 

 

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This is going to be another bust for svr weather for most of IA. The instability is sky high-- but need something to set it of. Not happening.

 

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The 3kNAM, HRRR, and FV3 are all wildly different with the convection this afternoon and tonight.

yep, sadly models are little help.  Which is very often the case with severe weather.  It just shows how long we still have to go in modeling severe storms.  People always ask me if it's going to storm (because they know I watch the models) and I typically have to say, I really don't know.  Some models say yes, some say no.  You basically just have to watch the radar.  

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Season Snowfall: 0.00"

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Currently looks like the big cell a couple counties west of Cedar Rapids may want to lift just north of CR unless it builds south a bit more.  It's still a couple hours away.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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38 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Currently looks like the big cell a couple counties west of Cedar Rapids may want to lift just north of CR unless it builds south a bit more.  It's still a couple hours away.

All of Benton County is now under a severe thunderstorm warning and that cell is moving east at 25mph. It looks like it should move into Cedar Rapids.

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9 minutes ago, BMT said:

Insane cloud to ground lightning just north of my house right now

The sky is black to my north.  Northern Linn county is really getting clobbered.  Meanwhile, the storms west of CR are weakening.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The sky is black to my north.  Northern Linn county is really getting clobbered.  Meanwhile, the storms west of CR are weakening.

Yeah that is for sure.  Unfortunately not more than a sprinkle yet.  I hope that stuff west of us can hold on

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Everything west of CR is crapping out..... damnit.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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At this time I have a temperature of 88 and a DP of 77 that is good for a heat index of 100. Officially at GRR they have a temperature of 86 with a dew point of 75 good for a heat index of 95. To the east at Lansing the temp is 89 DP 70 Heat index is 94.The highest DP seem to be here in SW Michigan. At Sturgis the current DP is a reported 81 with a heat index of 104.
 

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Northern Cedar Rapids got some decent rain, but not the central and south.  I picked up a lousy 0.15".

2-3" fell over northern Linn county.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Just as I said earlier this morning, ORD officially hit the hottest "feeling" day of the year...

Quote

BREAKING: It's officially the hottest "feeling" day in #Chicago in over two years! Low 90 degree temps combined with oppressive levels of humidity have created dangerous heat indexes. The explosive atmosphere has prompted a SVR T-storm Watch until 10pm.

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Some low/mid 80's DP's showing up where the crop is growing...122F HI???  Yikes...

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Sure was hoping for better action than this, which is nothing. I was hoping  that the storms could/would quickly fill and connect with the southern cell, but that was wishful thinking and the southern cell went poof. 😟At least still more chances exist till Thursday, at least for southern and southeastern Iowa.

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It was pretty awful working out in the sun and humidity today and I about roasted! I usually don’t sweat a whole lot, but today it kept running down my face while chopping off sweet corn that has finished production and some other outdoor work I wanted finished before the supposed rain or storm. The maximum dew point was 85° for the second time this year and the heat index topped out at 116°.🥵Earlier an outflow from storms just made it far enough south to cool us off a little.

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Last night's storms were uneventful around here but that did not stop nature from producing a display of beautiful lightning strikes...

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Looks like the city got hit pretty good with high winds of 60-70mph last night...

 

Round 3 later this evening???

 

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Boy, after this stretch of active and hot weather, the models are suggesting endless sunshine and very comfy temps well into next week starting this Friday.  We've had some phenomenal stretches of wx this year, but this one may top it off for the GL's region.

Hey, look at this....signs of a pattern change for our northern friends???  It's def looking likely that a more troughy pattern takes shape beyond Day 5 for the PAC NW/N Rockies that should produce a good chance for precip across this parched region.  @FAR_Weather, it is trending better up your way and region wide as the LR signal I'm seeing is suggesting a potentially active pattern shaping up.  Hope the wx God's deliver a turnaround .

 

0z EPS....

 

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After spending the night in the "dark ages" I am now back to 2021. Officially at GRR the highest dew point reached 79. The highest hourly heat index was 98 at 8 PM with a temp of 86 and a dew point of 78. Here at my house the highest DP was 78. Now for the storms last night. Here at my house I recorded 0.25" of wind blown rain. It was very windy and while there was a good bit of lighting there was no thunder with it. Some of what seemed like lightning might have been transformers as there was a lot of blue and red lighting and that can come from power lines touching. At this time there is now hazy sunshine with a temperature of 73 and a dew point of 71 here at my house.  BTY there are still a reported 184000 without power in SW Michigan at this time

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Good grief! It is unreal how Chicago, and northern Illinois has been ground zero for severe weather and heavy rain this summer. They look to get several rounds today. Not sure why that area has been doing so well. 

 

I sure hope we can get something in Cedar Rapids, we still need A LOT of rain to get us out of the drought. Not sure how the rest of this month is looking for precipitation but I sure hope we are done with the hot and dry weather! 

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6 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

Good grief! It is unreal how Chicago, and northern Illinois has been ground zero for severe weather and heavy rain this summer. They look to get several rounds today. Not sure why that area has been doing so well. 

 

I sure hope we can get something in Cedar Rapids, we still need A LOT of rain to get us out of the drought. Not sure how the rest of this month is looking for precipitation but I sure hope we are done with the hot and dry weather! 

It’s the repeating pattern…the good ol’ LRC…the vegetation around here is amazingly moist and lush.  Farmers and gardeners are thrilled, esp the northern burns getting 1-4” and another 1-2” tonight.  Crazy how fast nature can flip the switch.

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1 hour ago, WBadgersW said:

106,000 people still without power in the Greater MKE area. Hopefully they can get it on before this evening.

Friend of mine is outta of power in the MKE area. He is not a weather guy- so I'll ask here, was this from severe thunderstorm (widesperad) or possibly a derecho?? 100,000+ is a lot of customers.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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