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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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Cells are trying to pop near Cedar Rapids, but the cap is winning so far.  Of course, the cap has broken up along hw20 where several inches of rain has already fallen over the last week.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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7 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Cells are trying to pop near Cedar Rapids, but the cap is winning so far.  Of course, the cap has broken up along hw20 where several inches of rain has already fallen over the last week.

Do you think it's already too late to get storms here? Do we have a chance tomorrow? 

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5 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

Do you think it's already too late to get storms here? Do we have a chance tomorrow? 

There is still a bit of time today, but the cap needs to break asap.  Most models suggest Thursday's action will pop southeast of Cedar Rapids.

season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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11 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

There is still a bit of time today, but the cap needs to break asap.  Most models suggest Thursday's action will pop southeast of Cedar Rapids.

With the storms that are having a hard time getting going in Linn County, does that mean it's now too late? 

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5 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

With the storms that are having a hard time getting going in Linn County, does that mean it's now too late? 

The boundary is still very apparent, draped from northern Linn to southern Benton county.  We are still in play until that passes through.  We probably have another 30 minutes in CR.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The convection that fell apart over chicago this morning might’ve ruined our chances of anything tonight :( had that not happened I can only imagine how intense the storms would be right now! I guess we’ve been pretty spoiled though. Here’s a picture from a photographer I follow on insta — the lightning was so amazing last night!

52BC7013-D88D-4A9B-94C7-8DA820BA8F57.thumb.jpeg.266d45f0b6a1c0f42d3df258d2f16bad.jpeg

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That's it for Cedar Rapids... no more rain til around the 19th.  🙁

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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8 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

Friend of mine is outta of power in the MKE area. He is not a weather guy- so I'll ask here, was this from severe thunderstorm (widesperad) or possibly a derecho?? 100,000+ is a lot of customers.

More like a derecho, although by definition I don't think it can be classified as one. The stretch of 58+mph winds was limited to 3 counties, but the entire CWA saw 50-55 mph winds.

80,000 in the Milwaukee area still don't have power. I haven't seen anything like this.

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3 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

That's it for Cedar Rapids... no more rain til around the 19th.  🙁

I’ve pretty much given up, but still hoping for a miracle tomorrow afternoon or possibly tonight here. Oh well at least there’s not much lawn mowing now. Grass is finally starting to turn a little brown.

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No severe storms materialized last night as I think the atmosphere was "turned over" from the mornings storms but the southern section of the area is getting hit this morning.  I'm fine with that bc that means my grass will be dry to mow today...gotta fine the silver lining in things.  Not to mention, I'm grateful that I have power as there are still thousands without it from the storm damage.  Nothing worse than having no power in this heat and humidity.  At this time, it's a very warm 76F this morning and the DP has dropped into the low 60's.

 

Long range 06z HRRR suggests one more round of storms later this evening which is fine by me....

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_19.png

 

Then, here comes a LONG stretch of eminently beautiful late summer days filled with bountiful sunshine and low DP's....you can't get better than daytime highs in the upper 70's/low 80's this time of year.

 

0z Euro still firing up storm chances for our northern friends...

 

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The JMA weeklies are not showing any considerable signal for heat or chill but remain rather steady in the temp dept, however, the wet signal is showing up in certain parts of our Sub.

Temps over the next 30 days...

Y202108.D1112_gl2.png

 

Precip...this would give a chance for the GL's region to dry out a bit I'd imagine...hopefully this will allow nature to "share the wealth" across our Sub where precip is needed most.

 

Y202108.D1112_gl0.png

 

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A rather warm morning once again. The overnight low here was 70 even with the rain. The storm last night had the most lightning and thunder here in more than 2 years. As far as rain fall here at my house there was a total of 0.64" in two events one during the afternoon and one around 8:30 last night. At this time it is cloudy and 72 with a DP of 72. The mean temperature at Grand Rapids now has a departure of 0. And at the airport there has been a reported 2.25" of rain fall. I would like to point out that while it has been very humid and the DP reached at least as high as 79 at GR and as high as 82 at Sturgis. In the future when looking at the months temperatures one will just past it by as being near average as the warmest it has been this month so far is just 87.

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Wasn't quite cool last night (about 65°F), but there was a stiff westerly wind more normal for Fall and Winter. Makes me excited.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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16 minutes ago, Sparky said:

I wish those training storms in the far southern counties would be over areas that got missed so far this month! At least clouds from those storms are keeping it cooler for now , but probably ruining rain chances for me later today.

The part of far southern Iowa that is getting flooding rain this morning was already about 15 inches up on Cedar Rapids this year.  🤮

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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14 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The part of far southern Iowa that is getting flooding rain this morning was already about 15 inches up on Cedar Rapids this year.  🤮

Yeah it’s so frustrating, especially when we need it most! I’ll get over it eventually. I better get back to watering things today, though I was doing that occasionally for awhile already.

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7 hours ago, Tom said:

 

0z Euro still firing up storm chances for our northern friends...

 

5.png

 

We will see about that...droughts never last forever, but models have shown so much rain in the medium range over the last year only to amount to nothing I can't help but be skeptical.

On a related note, a band of northern minnesota got added to exceptional drought D4 in this weeks drought monitor.  It has rain nearly 3" here in the last week, can hardly tell looking around.  Ground soaked it up so fast hardly a puddle around. Blue skies are back with no smoke which is nice. 

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5 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

 

That’s awesome! The person must’ve skedaddled for cover at the exciting part which I don’t blame for doing. Should’ve set the camera somewhere and let it run, but who has time to think fast enough in such a situation!

 

Here’s another tornado at close range!

 

Edited by Sparky
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3 hours ago, Iowawx said:

I'm not sure it means anything, but it does look like the HRRR is at least trying to develop storms near CR later today. Perhaps we could get something here. Hopefully there isn't a cap like there was yesterday. 

A few have popped to my west along a stationary boundary which appears to be right over southern Linn county near CR attm. according to COD radar. 

Edited by Sparky
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7 hours ago, james1976 said:

Are you still moving to Iowa or did that change?

Nope, moving back to Ohio lol

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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6 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

The part of far southern Iowa that is getting flooding rain this morning was already about 15 inches up on Cedar Rapids this year.  🤮

There was sharp cutoff near hwy 34 today.  I did manage  a half inch at my home.  A friend in vanburen  county had  5.50 but just few miles north got a sprinkle! There are  spots even south of hwy 34 with no measurable rain in August. 

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35 minutes ago, Sparky said:

So you never went into law enforcement? Thought that was your plan several years ago, but I don’t blame you if you didn’t. 

Still the plan.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Beautiful out. There is still haze but it's very obviously way less. 78*F.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Anvil cloud tops from the training storms downstate didn't allow temps to climb into the 90's that were forecast for the second day in a row.  ORD topped out at 85F yesterday and 88F the day before.  It was a rather comfortable day actually with DP's holding in the 60's instead of the soupy 70's.  Now, we track the "Friday the 13th Cold Front"...it is currently slicing through the southern metro area and DP's should be falling throughout the day.  Looking forward to the much more comfortable wx this weekend!

 

 

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This is off topic but the wx couldn't of been better for the "Field of Dreams" baseball game near Dubuque, IA last night.  It was nearly picture perfect.  That was quite a ball game with a walk-off home run by the White Sox.  They sure seem like the team to beat this year in the MLB.

In other news, isn't this familiar....more flooding rains in the desert SW and the AZ valley...

 

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Look ahead into the following week, the blocking pattern setting up and the forecasted system that drops into the N Rockies mid next week is in position to potentially spin up into an Upper MW/W GL's cutter....wait a second, isn't August the time of year the jet stream is supposed to be at its weakest point and retreat way north into Canada????   Nope.  Not this year.  The jet stream seems to be energizing early this season and this will kick off a pattern change for those up north.  Hope to see more models come on board and "see" this potentially interesting system.  Needless to say, I'm actually quite intrigued to see what transpires for the remainder of this month.  My call was for this month to end up being the coolest month on the whole for our Sub.  Let's see if we can all benefit from the troughy pattern that is likely to set up shop over the PAC NW/N Rockies.

0z Euro/EPS...still looking like a healthy soaker is on the way later next week...

 

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

KC folks getting rocked overnight with training storms... @mlgamer @clintbeed1993 did you guys get hit pretty good???  Flood warnings for KC metro...I'm sure Gary Lezak is pumped!

Unfortunately the super heavy area of rain missed my place by 5 miles or so. Still stormed for a couple hours and probably got 1 to 2 inches of much needed rain. It was getting extremely dry with that heat and not much rain since late June. Many areas in Northern Missouri and Kansas got clocked with 5+

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3 minutes ago, clintbeed1993 said:

Unfortunately the super heavy area of rain missed my place by 5 miles or so. Still stormed for a couple hours and probably got 1 to 2 inches of much needed rain. It was getting extremely dry with that heat and not much rain since late June. Many areas in Northern Missouri and Kansas got clocked with 5+

Glad you got something rather than nothing.  You guys have been dry of late and it was nice to see the radar lit up in your area this morning.  

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

KC folks getting rocked overnight with training storms... @mlgamer @clintbeed1993 did you guys get hit pretty good???  Flood warnings for KC metro...I'm sure Gary Lezak is pumped!

I picked up nearly 1.5" overnight and still raining, but 2" reports are common nearby. Looks like KC and Emporia areas had much greater totals to name a couple of places.

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  • 21-22 Total Snowfall: 21.1" (123% of seasonal normal 17.1" )
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@Tom i saw the highlights of the Field of Dreams game. Definitely perfect weather conditions. It was funny seeing some of the people from NY taking pics of the tall corn. I'm sure Iowa is like a different world for those folks. Sounds like the Cubs will be playing it next year!

In other news....very comfy last night and this morning. Had the windows open all night. 57° on my drive into work this morning.

I have 2 shows in Wisconsin this weekend. Should be pretty comfortable with lower temps and dews!

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44 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We are leaving Florida today, glad its cooled off back home. Sounds like it was a miserable week of heat and humidity in KC. Talked to my folks this morning and they got an inch of rain overnight so I'm going to guess I got about the same.

you missed all the storms in kc last night. KC got 2 rounds of heavy rain and flash flooding everywhere. You shouldnt have any flight delays today coming back

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This week parts of northern Minnesota have been classified as "D4-Exceptional Drought". This is the first time ever Minnesota has had to use this classification. I have literally mowed my lawn only twice this year since we don't water it and it has been taking forever to grow (well, at least the areas that haven't gone dormant). Thankful for what looks to be cooler days ahead, that helps a bit. But some rain would be lovely.

Capture11.JPG

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5 hours ago, Northland09 said:

This week parts of northern Minnesota have been classified as "D4-Exceptional Drought". This is the first time ever Minnesota has had to use this classification. I have literally mowed my lawn only twice this year since we don't water it and it has been taking forever to grow (well, at least the areas that haven't gone dormant). Thankful for what looks to be cooler days ahead, that helps a bit. But some rain would be lovely.

Capture11.JPG

Capture10.JPG

Pretty incredible how much drought the state is in. In the same boat having only mowed twice here in Anoka county. 😂 My garden of watermelons is not exactly enjoying it either.

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At last a mild “cold front” will knock us out of triple digits and Sunday we’ll see 92*.  Practically a cold front.  
50% chance of rain.  Not the super soaker we need but it’s a beginning.  Out of the 100’s for the week though. 
Almost Fall! 😎

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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3 hours ago, Stormgeek said:

Pretty incredible how much drought the state is in. In the same boat having only mowed twice here in Anoka county. 😂 My garden of watermelons is not exactly enjoying it either.

That is amazing. I have mowed every 3 days for the entire summer. I should have mowed today, but school and activities have started. 

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The PHX valley got blasted by severe storms a couple hours ago...here's the radar loop...pretty incredible to see the entire southern half of the state under a severe thunderstorm watch and flood watch.  It's been the "year of the monsoon" for that state.  Blessings from nature.

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel9rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=5&year=2021&month=8&day=13&hour=22&minute=0

 

1.png

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Woke up this morning and had to open the windows to let in the real fresh Northwoods air.  Gosh, what a difference it is compared to the past week.  Sitting at 61F/55F...I think ORD hit a DP of 49F yesterday afternoon at one point which was some really dry air for the time of year.  Looking forward to a wonderful weekend of wx.

Speaking of cooler wx, signs of Autumn are fast approaching the mountains of the Cascade's in SW C.A. and quite possibly into the N Rockies of MT/WY later next week.  The 0z Euro flashing some....Summer SNOW????

1.png

 

 

0z GFS...

gfs_asnow_nwus_24.png

 

 

The potential system for later next week is looking intriguing for many reasons but none moreso than where @Northland09 lives and our members in the drought areas of MN.  The 0z Euro brings a widespread autumn-like storm that produces quite a soaker from the Plains of Nebraska into the W GL's.

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