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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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What a day it was yesterday as the temps topped out 80F at ORD with sunny skies and no haze.  On my morning walk, it noticeably sunnier without the smoky haze in the skies.  Looking forward to another gorgeous day today.

It's a coolish morning here as temps have dipped into the upper 50's (58F) for the 1st time in over a week.  Feels great to have the windows open and a nice cool breeze filtering the room.

 

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

It's good to be back home and enjoy a fantastic morning. It's 63 with bright sunshine on its way to 80 this afternoon.

Nice to see your back and in the saddle.  Hope you had a fun and relaxing trip with your family.  

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Received a light shower this morning. Rain is moving south now.  

Actually below 80 this morning   A fresher 78* at 9:30. 
High will hit 92*  

This is the break toward Fall we usually receive.  Fall is a good ways away, but the shift may be occurring   


 

 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We had another stunning day yesterday topping out at 80F with sunny skies and a very comfy easterly breeze off the lake.  What a wonderful weekend.  A carbon copy slated for one more day today before the temps warm and DP's rise.  Speaking of rising, the sun will rise above the horizon at 6:00am local time as the amount of daylight continues to dwindle each and every day about 1.5 minutes/day.

 

What about the late week storm system???  Models are shifting the storm track a bit farther NW, thus shifting the heaviest band of precip into W ND but still produces a line of showers/storms along the trailing CF.  The interesting feature with this system is how strong and wound up the models are suggesting it to become given the time of year.  It's literally going to be sizzling summer conditions on one side of the storm while it's Autumn on the other side.  @FAR_Weathermay get close to 100F once or twice this week???  Relief is on your way buddy...

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Following this storm system, there is another one on its heels, that will likely tug down one of the summer seasons strongest CF's as big blocking evolves off the W NAMER (-EPO) and Greenland...Autumn preview???  One of my long standing ideas was to look for a strong push of Autumn-like air towards the end of August.  I like what the EPS is showing for Week 2.

The 00z EPS still hanging onto a wetter look for the Upper MW region as the pattern flips towards a more autumn pattern.  

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11 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

^ I had BETTER not get under an inch out of this...

I think this system has some surprises dialed up...this is shaping up to be one strong, ULL feature tracking right near your area.  The Euro/UKIE/ICON all show something similar and I can't imagine some severe wx impacting your back yard.

icon_z500_vort_us_43.png

 

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7 minutes ago, Tom said:

I think this system has some surprises dialed up...this is shaping up to be one strong, ULL feature tracking right near your area.  The Euro/UKIE/ICON all show something similar and I can't imagine some severe wx impacting your back yard.

icon_z500_vort_us_43.png

 

I've written this severe season off. I just want a nice soaking storm that covers the entire area. If we weren't in a drought I'd be more inclined to care about severe weather.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Meanwhile, Tucson is looking at SUNNY and a high of 92 on Thursday. Can't imagine a combo of completely clear skies and a high that low is all too common in August. Glad to see them having a good monsoon as opposed to the last few oppressively hot summers.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I've written this severe season off. I just want a nice soaking storm that covers the entire area. If we weren't in a drought I'd be more inclined to care about severe weather.

A 24-36 hour non severe weather soaking rain system would feel like heaven at this point.  

It can be argued that northern minnesota is an interconnected system of lakes, rivers, swamps, wetlands, etc. with interspersed areas of higher ground.  Well, the lakes and rivers are at low levels and the swamps and wetlands are nearly if not completely dried up at this point. 

Fire danger is about as high as it can be at this point.  It seems like there is a new fire somewhere in the region everyday.  So far a large fire has been avoided until now, but it could get catastrophically worse without significant rain before leaves fall and vegetation dies off before cold season.  Historically, the biggest and most destructive fires in Minnesota are in Sep-Oct and even Nov.  

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The weather has been  absolutely gorgeous here.  If it weren't for the drought conditions and needing rain, I don't think there would be any complaints.  Sadly, no relief in sight.  Scattered chances of mostly light to possibly moderate rain on Friday night is our only hope this week for any rain, but that does not look overly promising.  

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Very nice summer day had a high of 85. There are some scattered thunderstorms in the area but they are mostly stationary and don't look to affect my place. Could use some rain and Friday looks to be my best shot. Things are turning brown and for the first time this summer I may get a week off from mowing.

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14 hours ago, Beltrami Island said:

A 24-36 hour non severe weather soaking rain system would feel like heaven at this point.  

It can be argued that northern minnesota is an interconnected system of lakes, rivers, swamps, wetlands, etc. with interspersed areas of higher ground.  Well, the lakes and rivers are at low levels and the swamps and wetlands are nearly if not completely dried up at this point. 

Fire danger is about as high as it can be at this point.  It seems like there is a new fire somewhere in the region everyday.  So far a large fire has been avoided until now, but it could get catastrophically worse without significant rain before leaves fall and vegetation dies off before cold season.  Historically, the biggest and most destructive fires in Minnesota are in Sep-Oct and even Nov.  

The Greenwood fire may prove to be the big one everyone was worried about. To go from just being discovered on Sunday to over 2000 acres on Monday shows how explosive things are right now. The next few days should be interesting. 

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It's amazing how many conditions are coming together for fires here that you normally wouldn't see anywhere East of the Rockies. Exceptional drought, temps in the 90s, and a strong SW wind. Forest fires are no stranger to Northern MN, but these conditions coming together isn't all that common.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Sending this here. iFred created a Discord server for this forum. Right now it's 100% west coast members besides me, hoping to diversify it a bit more as it could be useful for some more immediate discussion.

https://discord.gg/kSmVHqna

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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Here we go again....the PHX valley got rocked by yet another severe line of storms late last night around 10:00pm local time...an intense and severe line rushed down from the mountains and inundated the valley.  Gosh, I wish I was there to see this off my balcony!

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel9rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=75&interval=5&year=2021&month=8&day=17&hour=0&minute=0

 

 

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ORD topped out at 80F yet again yesterday.  We have been spoiled the last few days with just perfect wx conditions.  Today, we will see an uptick in humidity, but nothing terrible I guess.  Might have to turn on the A/C later today but I think I'll hold off till Wed or Thu.

The PAC NW storm is beginning to make its way into the N Rockies today bringing much needed moisture into the region.  Parts of WA/ID state are under a flood watch where there is an exceptional Drought.  I'm really curious to see where this part of the U.S. will stand once we get into the Winter season.  Will nature balance out and usher in a big reversal in the drought???  I believe so.

 

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While I was flipping through the model maps this morning, I had this idea to look at the N.H. 500mb map and what stuck out to me was the locations of the strategically placed ridges.  The map below is the 500mb pattern for this Sunday.  Now, if you can just imagine to fast forward towards the cold season...you got an interesting scenario brewing.  I guess you can say it was my intuition guiding me but I'll be the first to admit, that I have Winter on my mind.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png

 

On the topic of high lat blocking, my goodness, we got ourselves a beautiful illustration of a -AO/-NAO in tandem by Week 2.  Get ready for an early autumnal airmass to swing through the MW/GL's region by the 26th through the end of the month.  Right on schedule.

1.gif

 

As the pattern up north flips into a more Nina-like pattern, it appears that the reversal from Heat to Cold will bring forth abundant moisture.  Blessings from Nature.

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We now have had 3 chamber of commerce days in a row with highs around 80 each day and low in the mid 50's. The month of August is now past the half way mark and so far this month and all locations are near average for the month so far. At Grand Rapids the mean is at 71.8 that is a departure of -0.2. the high for the month so far is 87 on the 8th and the low so far is 53 on the 3rd. Officially there has been 2.27" of rain fall. At Muskegon the mean is 72.2 that is a departure of +0.6 the highest so far is 88 on the 8th and the low is 54 on the 2nd and they officially have recorded 4.43" of rain fall. At Holland the mean there is 71.4 a departure of +0.4 the high so far of 89 on the 8th and 10th The low so far is 51 on the 15th and they have recorded 1.84" of rain fall. To the east at Lansing they have a mean of 73.3 that is good for a departure of +2.3 That departure is the highs at this point of the major locations in lower Michigan. The highest so far at Lansing is 89 on 3 days. The low so far is 51 on the 2nd and they have reported 4.32" of rain fall so far.

While it has been very humid this year there have not been very many really hot days so far. In a average summer Grand Rapids had 11 days of 90 or better but so far this year only 2. For days of 89° or better on average GR has 13 by mid August this year 8. For 88° By mid August GR averages 16 this year 11 and for days of 87° or better on average GR averages 19 by mid August this year 13

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

While I was flipping through the model maps this morning, I had this idea to look at the N.H. 500mb map and what stuck out to me was the locations of the strategically placed ridges.  The map below is the 500mb pattern for this Sunday.  Now, if you can just imagine to fast forward towards the cold season...you got an interesting scenario brewing.  I guess you can say it was my intuition guiding me but I'll be the first to admit, that I have Winter on my mind.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_7.png

 

On the topic of high lat blocking, my goodness, we got ourselves a beautiful illustration of a -AO/-NAO in tandem by Week 2.  Get ready for an early autumnal airmass to swing through the MW/GL's region by the 26th through the end of the month.  Right on schedule.

1.gif

 

As the pattern up north flips into a more Nina-like pattern, it appears that the reversal from Heat to Cold will bring forth abundant moisture.  Blessings from Nature.

1.png

@Tom just curious, do you follow the LRC that sets up in October? Gary behind the mastermind of it all says the new patter doesnt set itself up until the 2nd week of October and cycles through for the next 11 months. Do you believe in that theory?

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5 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

@Tom just curious, do you follow the LRC that sets up in October? Gary behind the mastermind of it all says the new patter doesnt set itself up until the 2nd week of October and cycles through for the next 11 months. Do you believe in that theory?

Absolutely, I've been a long time follower of the cyclical nature of the LRC.  As we get into late September, I'll be studying the potential new pattern that sets up in early October and you'll be seeing my posts.  I have my own personal opinions about how to use it for forecasting in the long range.  It's very useful.

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6 hours ago, Tom said:

Here we go again....the PHX valley got rocked by yet another severe line of storms late last night around 10:00pm local time...an intense and severe line rushed down from the mountains and inundated the valley.  Gosh, I wish I was there to see this off my balcony!

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=sel9rad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=75&interval=5&year=2021&month=8&day=17&hour=0&minute=0

 

 

Do storms mostly move from ne. to sw. out there off of the mountains? I noticed another radar loop you shared before with storms moving sw. I wasn’t aware that that might be a common direction out there.

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4 minutes ago, Sparky said:

Do storms mostly move from ne. to sw. out there off of the mountains? I noticed another radar loop you shared before with storms moving sw. I wasn’t aware that that might be a common direction out there.

Yup, this is a very common direction and where storms typically fire up first…up in the mountains.

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Received several nice downpours today.  
Currently 74.  We’ll see a high of 87 tomorrow. Remarkable for August.  
Chance of a shower tomorrow as well.
Odd for August.   

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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