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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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4 hours ago, james1976 said:

Local met tonight showed that Waterloo has a deficit of 13.59" of precip YTD. Didnt know we were that far under!

It's been a absolutely crazy hers this year. I have literally watched Waterloo get missed by every direction with storms this year. It just never seems to make it into Waterloo. I suppose it'll crack off one day and we'll have 10 inches in an hour.

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7 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Not buying the marginal risk here on Thursday. Way, WAY too capped. 

2021081718_NAM_051_46.61,-96.86_severe_ml.png

I think its the Fri-Sat period that is the one to watch...this system has been on my mind to deliver some severe storms up your way.  The track and intensity of the 500mb wave, as well as the track of the SLP, is rather strong for the time of year.  I'm starting to think this is the pattern change you've been yearning for quite some time.  Multiple threats for precip heading your way.

0z Euro through Sat...btw, the Euro and NAM are very similar in track and intensity.  This could very well be the BEST severe wx threat of the season up your way and the Northwoods.

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0z EPS...Bullseye @FAR_Weather

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Who's ready for some relief from the warmth and humidity???  #TasteofAutumn

0z EPS trending cooler to finish off the final month of met Summer...

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On a side note, this weekend we welcome the Blue Angles to town for the annual Air and Water show.  It will be a shortened version and only showcase the Blue Angles for about 1 hour.  Better than having nothing I guess.

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Today looks to be similar to yesterday for my area with scattered afternoon storms possible and muggy conditions.  Looking ahead I believe the tropics, in particular the GOM are about to explode with tropical systems.  I have a bad feeling for Louisiana as they could be the target of multiple hurricanes in Sept.

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Today looks to be similar to yesterday for my area with scattered afternoon storms possible and muggy conditions.  Looking ahead I believe the tropics, in particular the GOM are about to explode with tropical systems.  I have a bad feeling for Louisiana as they could be the target of multiple hurricanes in Sept.

hopefully one of those systems can track up our way and give us some rain. Im surprised there isnt a tropics thread on this board

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12 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

hopefully one of those systems can track up our way and give us some rain. Im surprised there isnt a tropics thread on this board

The rain in the area has been really scattered and it seems the same places keep getting hit and the same for those getting missed.  I like the idea of tropics thread because as we get into Oct the storms coming out of the Gulf do have an impact on our weather as we've seen with the LRC esp for the eastern side of the forum.

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Its been a very dry August  in parts of SE Iowa.  At our shop/farm just NE of Ottumwa  city we have barely  had a shower since July 30th.  So were looking at 20 days with only .15!  Despite  good  rains all season  we  have had 3 dry periods of 18 days plus with virtually  zero rain since May 1st. And another of about 9 days.  I have come to expect  wild precip swings here.  I will never like it. Plants stress,  growing  things are tough. 

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Super soaker in process.  
77*

It began raining around 9:30am and will continue through early evening.  
no totals yet. But it should be really nice.  We needed it.  
 

Just a constant rain with some thunderstorms embedded.  
Great day!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Unrelenting dews continue in my area.  It just wears on you.  With the above normal rainfall and abundant corn, we've had very few breaks this summer from high humidity.  Most everyday is upper 60's to low 70's dews.  In an average year, the yards are starting to get stressed and we get some days with a dry southwest wind that tanks the dew.  Not this year.  Yards are lush and the corn is amazing.  Might get a little break this weekend, but the heat returns early next week.  

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It's back to warm and muggy mornings......current sitting at 72F/70F and heading up into the mid 80's.  There were isolated showers that blossomed yesterday around the periphery of the lake breeze and dumped some spotty heavy rains.  A carbon copy is expected today.  @FAR_Weather, I'll be rooting for you up there and hopefully you can score some heavy precip.  That defo band showing up on the CAM's looks nasty.

 

0z Euro...slight shift west in the track...

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This particular system delivered drenching rains...yet again...for the northern PHX valley and up in the mountains.  My goodness, what a Monsoon season they have been experiencing.  It's been the 2nd wettest Monsoon on record (so far) behind 2014 and we still have 1.5 months to go.  About 1" of rain fell in Scottsdale causing more flooding and downed trees.  Up north in Flagstaff, they have really suffered from Flash Floods where rivers of water washed into homes and created a mess for those near wash ways.  Some of the footage I've seen is devastating, esp near burn scars from the wild fires.

https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/flagstaff-crews-work-to-clean-up-monsoon-destruction-are-more-storms-are-expected

 

 

 

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It’s felt oppressively hot and humid with hardly any wind the last few days.  Should make a run at 90 the next three days with humid conditions.   I’m ready for fall so I can get some work done I the yard.   Should “cool” down to average by Next week.  

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I have to say in looking at the daily weather record for this summer this summer has been a rather nice summer. Yes we have some very humid days but there have not been very many "hot" days. in fact at Grand Rapids there have only been 2 days of 90° or better (both were 90) the average number by this time is 9. There have been 8 days of 89° or better the average number by this date is 11 there have been 11 days of 88° or better the average by this date is 15. There have been 15 days of 87° or better the average number is 19 and closer to average the number of 86° days so far is 20 and the average is around 21. The last few days have been great summer weather with high in the low to mid 80's and warm overnight lows in the mid 50's to the mid 60's. This is a great time to get outside and enjoy our great Michigan summer weather as this will not be here much longer.
 

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45 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

It’s felt oppressively hot and humid with hardly any wind the last few days.  Should make a run at 90 the next three days with humid conditions.   I’m ready for fall so I can get some work done I the yard.   Should “cool” down to average by Next week.  

While a little humid I thought the weather has been great the last few days. And yes I have been outside every day this whole summer I work for the Whitecaps so I am outside a lot during the summer months.

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5 hours ago, westMJim said:

While a little humid I thought the weather has been great the last few days. And yes I have been outside every day this whole summer I work for the Whitecaps so I am outside a lot during the summer months.

I’m not as used to it working in an ac’d office.   This is my first week off to get stuff done that’s not on a weekend.   I’ve been in the pool instead lol.  

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I've been MIA lately, got back to Lincoln very late last night after 11 days of travelling (visiting family for the most part). My stopover back to OMA was at PHX. A few bursts of rain and lightning in the area was enough to delay my flight nearly 3 hours. Nice airport though. I'm glad to finally be back in Lincoln full time, it was a busy summer. I'm hoping the slight risk for tomorrow delivers something here. I did hear about the crazy flash flooding that happened in Omaha, but Lincoln needs the rain. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Hoping to move my family to Indiana in the next couple years and I’ve been following their weather pretty closely. This will help me be able to banter better with y’all. I’m stuck in low elevation Oregon right now and our winters suck. Looking forward to having all 4 seasons. We haven’t had an Arctic airmass hit us since Jan 2017.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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33 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hoping to move my family to Indiana in the next couple years and I’ve been following their weather pretty closely. This will help me be able to banter better with y’all. I’m stuck in low elevation Oregon right now and our winters suck. Looking forward to having all 4 seasons. We haven’t had an Arctic airmass hit us since Jan 2017.

Welcome to the Midwest!

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35 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hoping to move my family to Indiana in the next couple years and I’ve been following their weather pretty closely. This will help me be able to banter better with y’all. I’m stuck in low elevation Oregon right now and our winters suck. Looking forward to having all 4 seasons. We haven’t had an Arctic airmass hit us since Jan 2017.

I'd say welcome to the shitshow, but I seen the West forum and we're mild and friendly in comparison. Unless one of the trolls gets on but they usually only come in the winter. So welcome!

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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87*. 
dewpt 73

feels like 93* at 9:15. 😝

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

I'd say welcome to the shitshow, but I seen the West forum and we're mild and friendly in comparison. Unless one of the trolls gets on but they usually only come in the winter. So welcome!

Oh our PNW board is like a frat. All kinds of crazies but also great friends. We go insane like a kegger when there is even a hint of an Arctic event and/or low elevation snow. It seems this board has a good camaraderie plus y’all will get a kick out of how much I will enjoy that wall of continental Arctic air hitting us. Plus averaging 20” of snow per winter instead of the median of 0” for here with our only rare snow events being wet messy events that are usually not very impressive and only drop an inch or 2. We can go like 7 years without snow sometimes.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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19 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Oh our PNW board is like a frat. All kinds of crazies but also great friends. We go insane like a kegger when there is even a hint of an Arctic event and/or low elevation snow. It seems this board has a good camaraderie plus y’all will get a kick out of how much I will enjoy that wall of continental Arctic air hitting us. Plus averaging 20” of snow per winter instead of the median of 0” for here with our only rare snow events being wet messy events that are usually not very impressive and only drop an inch or 2. We can go like 7 years without snow sometimes.

Wait till winter. These monthly threads can span 40-50 pages then.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Oh our PNW board is like a frat. All kinds of crazies but also great friends. We go insane like a kegger when there is even a hint of an Arctic event and/or low elevation snow. It seems this board has a good camaraderie plus y’all will get a kick out of how much I will enjoy that wall of continental Arctic air hitting us. Plus averaging 20” of snow per winter instead of the median of 0” for here with our only rare snow events being wet messy events that are usually not very impressive and only drop an inch or 2. We can go like 7 years without snow sometimes.

We always welcome more members, esp from different regions on this site.  I rarely chime in outside of this Sub but occasionally do read some posts and the PNW forum is quite active.  I'm able to see the background things that go on when people make reports and they primarily come from the PNW!  😝

Our busiest time is during the cold season and usually starts picking up around Oct/Nov.  Hopefully you can make your move sooner than later to Indiana.  I hear its a great state and the people are kind.  What part of Indiana?

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Dang, it looks like the models are backing off the cool down for the later parts of the month for most of the central and eastern Sub.  The northern members should remain on the cooler side of things.

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On a positive note, it does appear that the pattern will turn more active as their should be multiple rounds of storm clusters riding along the periphery of the ridge.

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It's going to be a warm muggy day ahead with a high around 90 and heat index values between 100-105.  Big differences with the models as it regards to a possible line of storms overnight in my area.  The 3km NAM has a strong line of storms blasting through while the HRRR has the line falling apart before ever reaching KC.  With the heat and moisture available the NAM solution seems much more likely imo.  There was a little adjusting to the slight risk area for today.

day1otlk_1200.gif

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2 hours ago, Tom said:

Well, well, well... @CentralNebWeathergot another round of heavy rain overnight...I didn't see to much model data that indicated this line would be so healthy looking.  I see some reports of 1.5"+ near Kearney, NE.

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Another 1.20" at my house from this line overnight.  The summer that keeps on giving.

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4 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

1 mile north of Holdrege. Average precipitation for the year is 25”. 

7827786D-48CA-44F6-8CE1-4A83F2DDB1C0.png

Wow, LNK is only at 19.24" for the year so far. Average is 29". We're actually around the same as we were this time last year. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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