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August 2021 Observations and Discussion


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1 hour ago, Andie said:

Looking at the Gulf a little closer this Low doesn’t have a very well developed center at its lower level right now, so models are sending it toward the Texas/La. border. 
If that happens most of Texas will lose out on the rain. 
 

However, New Orleans could get drenched. They’ve already had 65” of rain!  That’s 20” above average.  Wow. 
I’m hoping for a more westerly path but….. well, I’m not going to hold my breath.  

The Gulf systems have struggled to strengthen so far this year.  We'll see if that trend continues as we move into prime hurricane season, I think that trend is about to end.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

Tracking the I-80 corridor of storms from last night....from Omaha to Ottumwa...nature is delivering the goods!

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=comprad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2021&month=8&day=24&hour=22&minute=0

Picked up 1.75 inches of much-needed rainfall last night in my backyard from the severe storms that rolled through the Omaha metro. 

We had more gusty winds that downed additional tree limbs in our neighborhood as well as some pea-sized hail - another mess of leaves and tree limbs to clean up this morning. Also there was a ton of lightning and thunder that woke everyone up in our household around midnight last night. 

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Pockets of heavy rain dumped over 3" in spots southwest of Cedar Rapids this morning.  I was only able to get a brief downpour, followed by a few hours of light to very light rain.  It added up to 0.20" in my gauge.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Des Moines NWS wrote a novel for their afternoon discussion.  There is a lot of uncertainly regarding convection over the next couple days.

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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4 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Picked up 1.75 inches of much-needed rainfall last night in my backyard from the severe storms that rolled through the Omaha metro. 

We had more gusty winds that downed additional tree limbs in our neighborhood as well as some pea-sized hail - another mess of leaves and tree limbs to clean up this morning. Also there was a ton of lightning and thunder that woke everyone up in our household around midnight last night. 

We only had .07” up here on the north side of town.☹️
Winds were gusty but no damage.

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5 hours ago, Clinton said:

The Gulf systems have struggled to strengthen so far this year.  We'll see if that trend continues as we move into prime hurricane season, I think that trend is about to end.

I saw a post on Twitter from a hurricane guy showing the upper level patterns and that it’s showing a potential hyper active hurricane threat coming up towards the 1st of September.

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21 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I coach 7th and 8th grade football. I’ve coached varsity football for many years prior. This is one of the hottest practices I’ve been associated with. At 4:30, it was 95 with a heat index of 109 and a 74 dew with no wind. Lots of water and cut down the time dramatically. My hat had water running off of it and our shirts looked like we had just showered. I’ll rank this summer as one of the most humid I’ve lived through. Please hurry Autumn. 

We had a high school kid die here in Omaha during football practice a couple of weeks ago. Tough weather for sure

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6 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I saw a post on Twitter from a hurricane guy showing the upper level patterns and that it’s showing a potential hyper active hurricane threat coming up towards the 1st of September.

I agree with him and I think 3 and maybe 4 major hurricanes are possible in the Gulf and I expect at 2 or 3 of them to make landfall in Louisiana based on the LRC.  The gulf coast in Florida being the other.

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I put together a short clip of the big hail we ran into up in SoDak on 8/22.

The storm was “only” warned for quarter sized hail and I don’t mind driving into that. But the storm was strengthening rapidly and we ran into ping pong to golf balls. Saw on the SPC a report of baseballs about a mile from where we were at!

 

C4233922-7710-4609-B0C8-2D44776E2EA3.jpeg

638EF96C-7526-4ADD-9E8E-DFD1CEBD260C.jpeg

8D74AF67-72D2-41A0-ADA7-19E5C71D8AB1.jpeg

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The heavens opened up yet again yesterday around here in this soupy airmass.  ORD hit a high of 94F and recorded 0.39" of rain while not a lot, but neighboring cities had flash flooding from nearly stationary storms that bubbled up along a lake breeze boundary dumping up to 1-4" of rain.  More storms then blossomed right over my place around 10:00pm last night right as I was entering REM sleep.  As that happened, a vicious lightning bolt struck about a block down the street and woke me up but then I was able to fall back asleep to the sound of rain falling.  I dunno about you, but I love falling asleep to the sound of rain in the summer.

 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=50&interval=10&year=2021&month=8&day=25&hour=17&minute=0

 

 

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Kuddo's to the GFS for staying pretty much steady on the track of our next Hurricane in the GOM.  The Euro has caved towards the GFS track and targeting the LA area.  Its still early in the game, but looking more and more likely that Houston may escape the worst of this storm.

While we count down the remaining days of met Summer, how will we open met Autumn???  My, oh my, what a bountiful blocking pattern setting up across Canada/Greenland.  Signal for the future??

ecmwf_mslpaNorm_namer_8.png

 

The models are showing quite a fascinating temp gradient to open up Sept...battle of the seasons...a nearly 20-30F temp gradient if you believe the Euro in the extended.

1.png

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Who's ready for our 1st REAL Autumn cold front????  Your patience will be rewarded for our northern members who have been frying.  #hoodiewx....dust off those sweaters and prepare for what will be some of the chilliest air of the early autumn season arriving during Labor Day weekend.  Bon Fires, smore's, sausages and potato's in the fire???   Ahhh, I have these images in my mind of those type of nights up in the woods!  #Septembrrr Chill is on Z way...

3.gif

 

 

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Exactly what the drought doctor ordered. Probably won't even hit 70 today, so I'm leaving my downwind windows open.

KMVX - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 5_52 AM.png

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 8.9"

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8 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Des Moines NWS talking 2-4" rain possible in my area along the highway 20 corridor with an enhanced risk of severe weather later today. Widespread damaging winds are the main threat. Could get quite interesting!

I'll be ready over here in Waterloo, man!!

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The CAMs are, once again, struggling to even see the MCS in western Iowa.

A new SPC discussion says...

   The airmass downstream is not overly favorable at
   the moment for this activity to maintain itself, as a fair amount of
   convective inhibition is in place across IA per recent mesoanalysis
   estimates.
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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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New SPC severe outlook

E9t-MXwUcAUttT8?format=jpg&name=900x900

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The overnight low here at my house was 71 the official overnight low at GRR was 70. With a current mean of 73.4 August 2021 looks like it will have a chance of ending up in the top 10 warmest Augusts in Grand Rapids. This August has been very steady with just a few cool days (only 3 days when it did not reach 80 at GR) While only 2 days have gotten to 90 or better there have been 4 nights when it has not gotten down below 70. and 14 nights when the low has not gotten below 65. 

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It will be interesting to see if those storms in western Iowa can hold together as they move east. It would be nice to see early storms, but it also could prevent storms from developing later today. 

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52 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

It will be interesting to see if those storms in western Iowa can hold together as they move east. It would be nice to see early storms, but it also could prevent storms from developing later today. 

Frankly, I'm not expecting more than a bubbly line of low-end storms by the time the line reaches us.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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5 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Frankly, I'm not expecting more than a bubbly line of low-end storms by the time the line reaches us.

How do you think the severe potential looks for CR later today? It looks like models want to keep the strongest storms north, but I hope we can still get something here. Are you worried the storms this morning could prevent storms in CR today?

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2 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

How do you think the severe potential looks for CR later today? It looks like models want to keep the strongest storms north, but I hope we can still get something here. Are you worried the storms this morning could prevent storms in CR today?

The models have been struggling all week.  The morning MCS could certainly ruin the potential MCS coming from the nw tonight.  The latest 3k NAM has no rain for our area through Saturday.  Who knows.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Iowa MCS is breaking apart.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Is it? Obviously I need to check radar again lol

There are still areas of decent convection, but the middle of the MCS has vanished.  You may get something, but probably just clouds and an outflow boundary for my area.

season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Looking at radar estimates, widespread 1" amounts in the Fargo area, 2"+ and still counting in the areas where the dried up Otter Tail River is.

Keep whittling away.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 8.9"

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52 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

There are still areas of decent convection, but the middle of the MCS has vanished.  You may get something, but probably just clouds and an outflow boundary for my area.

Kinda windy with some thunder and light rain just starting. Gonna be irritated if this ends up being weak and then kills off the strong storm potential later.

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Storms are kind of bubbling up on the back end again north of Des Moines. The old MCS decayed soon enough that storms could reorganize this afternoon, although there are some clouds around, but not very thick so far. All that is left of the weak outflow are some wavy clouds just east of here.

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Currently just exited the first round of storms. Looking like it is going to be a nice and wet stretch here (finally). Currently getting some unexpected sun as well as intense wildfire smoke. Models seem to disagree on timing a bit, but we look to score some nice storms with a warm front in place and an LLJ that starts screaming heading into the night. Maybe after this stretch I won't be able to walk across the Mississippi and Rum rivers... Hoping this also signals the end of being baked to a crisp! 😂😂

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Wow, It did not rain for all that long but it came down very hard. I just checked and there is 0.83" in my rain gauge. And there is now a lot of thunder off to my east. It did drop the temperature down to 77 and it now feel nice out. Will go for my walk in a little while.

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