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August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


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My son is driving and I am keeping him company and awake at 4 a.m.  We just entered Minnesota. 

Here is the 00Z EPS... pretty disappointing to see the rain being scaled back and now apparently more hot weather coming into view.   I am not in the group who is desperate for it to be dark and cold... but some normal summer rain would be nice if these hot spells keep coming.  

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-7776000.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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SEA ended up with just a trace of rainfall for July. Joining 2017, 2013, 1960, 1958. Not completely dry, but dry nonetheless.
They seems to come in bunches but more frequent this decade. 
 

Also 47 days without rain.

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6 hours ago, James Jones said:

Looks like the Euro is trying to set up a repeat of late June at hour 240 and has watered down the precip from the trough. Cool stuff!

Yes, I know this is a weenie post.

Very disappointing. Some rain is better than none but it’d be nice to have something more meaningful. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Low of 61 this morning. This after a low of 68 yesterday which still stands since we failed to drop down to 67 before midnight. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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I think cliff mass jinxed us on Friday with his podcast talking about the upcoming rainy pattern. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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7 hours ago, James Jones said:

Looks like the Euro is trying to set up a repeat of late June at hour 240 and has watered down the precip from the trough. Cool stuff!

Yes, I know this is a weenie post.

Well these beautiful Washburne homes that have only been here since the 1840s have been nice to look at.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Not really the step in the right direction we were hoping for. Rain will still help out for a lot of areas though…hopefully the totals don’t get cut too much more. 

8D32B6F2-6B22-4D76-BB92-C85A2695F302.jpeg

984025CA-2A81-4EBE-ADE0-6119CD2C5262.jpeg

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Gfs gets warm after the rains come through. Obviously can’t take the gfs temp outputs TOO seriously but definitely shows it getting warm again. 

16C18F4F-2F65-44DE-A2E6-2C67C5FE8A59.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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25 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Not really the step in the right direction we were hoping for. Rain will still help out for a lot of areas though…hopefully the totals don’t get cut too much more. 

8D32B6F2-6B22-4D76-BB92-C85A2695F302.jpeg

984025CA-2A81-4EBE-ADE0-6119CD2C5262.jpeg

That's a lot of rain over here. August is a mostly dry month.

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A warm start to August with a low of 62F here.   Looks cloudy or is that smoke aloft. 
 

it is looking like the BC interior will get a good dose of rain later in the week.  Would be beneficial if that amplified ridge verifies in the long range.  Hopefully Keeping the smoke source somewhat in check

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31 minutes ago, sand dune said:

That's a lot of rain over here. August is a mostly dry month.

Yeah it’ll be nice for most of Washington and BC…but it’s unfortunate that some areas in Oregon won’t get nearly as much. Was hoping this pattern would be a much bigger blow to the fire season regionally. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Yeah it’ll be nice for most of Washington and BC…but it’s unfortunate that some areas in Oregon won’t get nearly as much. Was hoping this pattern would be a much bigger blow to the fire season regionally. 

Yep, especially with another ridiculously amped up ridge nipping at the pattern’s heels.

Hints that the latest round could be centered more off the coast too (as opposed to inland as it was much of July) which would be more likely to give the west side bouts of offshore flow. Not good for smoke or fire prospects.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Yep, especially with another ridiculously amped up ridge nipping at the pattern’s heels.

Hints that the latest round could be centered more off the coast too (as opposed to inland as it was much of July) which would be more likely to give the west side bouts of offshore flow. Not good for smoke or fire prospects.

Was hoping this pattern would deliver more down that way…I know you’re going out to fight the wildfires soon. Best of luck to you out there. Really wish you were going out there and Mother Nature was giving you guys a bigger dose of rain…but atleast there will be some better than nothing. Would’ve been nice if this was the decisive end to the fire season down in Oregon but it probably won’t be unless there’s a big shift on the models in the right direction soon. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Pretty crazy how well my summer forecast turned out.  Would have loved to have been wrong. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Mammoth trade burst incoming for the second and third week of August. Wouldn’t shock me if we’re back to La Niña ONI conditions by the end of the month.

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pretty crazy how well my summer forecast turned out.  Would have loved to have been wrong. 

Along/east of the terrain, sure. But that was always expected with a large 4CH.

Westside will fall far from records, generally.

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Hopefully it continues to do absolutely nothing for us in terms of tangible weather.

I think descending e-QBO is more to blame than anything else. Which ceases to be an issue come mid/late autumn.

Keep -ENSO around another year and you’ll probably see a dramatically different result next summer. Just have to hold off the +ENSO transition to 2023.

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

tbf ENSO influence dies off substantially during the summer

Yes and no. There was no actual ENSO this summer and the low pass signal weakened substantially. The circulation was still biased to La Niña in the tropics, however.

That said, I made a post in the July thread looking at ENSO/QBO tendencies and summer wx in the PNW, and there does seem to be a relationship there. Perhaps a statistically significant one.

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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

tbf ENSO influence dies off substantially during the summer

Tell that to 2010, 2011, 2012

Although since then, yeah it seems like we torch hard regardless of ENSO. But that hasn’t always been the case.

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36 minutes ago, iFred said:

We've got that weird mix of a humid looking sky and amber light from wildfire smoke in Everett. Made for a fun looking sunrise.

Smoke aloft is definitely visible. Atleast it’s not at the surface. Unfortunately with the fires down in Oregon and California which will probably continue after this wetter pattern…the door will still be open for wildfire smoke to enter the west side of the crest with the right wind pattern. 

A66A5BC9-DB2D-4FCA-B82B-25504067709F.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Euro looks to deliver enough rainfall to knock the dust down for a couple hours anyways.  BC interior looks like the big winners

Outlier.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Euro looks to deliver enough rainfall to knock the dust down for a couple hours anyways.  BC interior looks like the big winners

Looks like the Washington and northern Oregon cascades do well too. Most lowland locations look to get 0.1-0.2 on this run outside of Everett north and the coast. Still a bummer wish it was more…but it’ll definitely help the fire situation. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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21 minutes ago, iFred said:

We've got that weird mix of a humid looking sky and amber light from wildfire smoke in Everett. Made for a fun looking sunrise.

Yep for the first time this season the shadows from sun have the smoky tinge to it. 

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