Jump to content
The Weather Forums

August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

I see temps in the upper 70s and low 80s at PDX next weekend.

We will see how it plays out... a developing AL pattern could end up being warmer than that.   The 00Z EPS showed temps near 90 by next Friday down there.  

  • Weenie 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

We will see how it plays out... a developing AL pattern could end up being warmer than that.   The 00Z EPS showed temps near 90 by next Friday down there.  

The Euro last week was also selling 90+ potential for today down here.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The Euro last week was also selling 90+ potential for today down here.

I don't know... the ECMWF from one week ago this morning for today looked pretty close to reality.

The development of an AL pattern would definitely tilt the scales in favor of warmth though.  

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8 (5).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't know... the ECMWF from one week ago this morning for today looked pretty close to reality.

The development of an AL pattern would definitely tilt the scales in favor of warmth though.  

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8 (5).png

 

Nope, earlier in the week before that it was selling a string of 90s for PDX for Tuesday-Thursday. Days 8-10 at that point. It's been overselling long range heat on and off for a little while now.

 

 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The Euro last week was also selling 90+ potential for today down here.

True. Active MJO + seasonal changes will  often throw off guidance in the LR.

But I would argue the 2nd week of September is a favored timeframe for a return to western ridging, as climatology under IO/EHEM MJO transits begins to change substantially at this time of year.

If it were late July, it would be torching in the PNW right now, and the IO wave would herald a shift to a cool/troughy pattern.

In the autumn, it is the El Niño type intraseasonal/MJO forcing (phases 7-8-1) that tends to produce cooler patterns in the west. Where-as the relationship inverts in the summer (and winter).

  • Downvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Donut hole...

 

 

The number of completely dry troughs that we've seen like this since March is crazy. Ideal trajectory or not, it seems like at some point we'd stumble our way into a few widespread light rainfalls or cold core convective days, but this year they just aren't producing anything. In a normal year we're easily talking about some widespread precip with this....

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_25.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_38.png

  • Sick 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

True. Active MJO + seasonal changes will  often throw off guidance in the LR.

But I would argue the 2nd week of September is a favored timeframe for a return to western ridging, as climatology under IO/EHEM MJO transits begins to change substantially at this time of year.

If it were late July, it would be torching in the PNW right now, and the IO wave would herald a shift to a cool/troughy pattern.

In the autumn, it is the El Niño type intraseasonal/MJO forcing (phases 7-8-1) that tends to produce cooler patterns in the west. Where-as the relationship inverts in the summer (and winter).

Agreed. I think we'll be looking at a return to ridging by the 10th or so. Makes sense given that we'll be approaching week 4 of mostly reasonable weather by that point.

  • Sad 1
  • Sick 1
  • Troll 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This will be day 8 in a row of below normal temps at OLM. And 11 of the past 12.

We are on quite a roll currently and it’s awesome. 

  • Like 1

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Below normal at SEA is going to be much easier going forward.   So much of the recent warming is now built into the averages.   Even normal now would have been considered very warm just last year. 

SEA is at +1.0 for the month while OLM is at +2.2  😃

Quillayute is at +1.8, BLI +1.7, Cedar Lake +1.3, Kent +1.3, Monroe +2.1, Bremerton +1.0.

Looks like a lot of places in western WA will finish August pretty close to normal.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Quillayute is at +1.8, BLI +1.7, Cedar Lake +1.3, Kent +1.3, Monroe +2.1, Bremerton +1.0.

Looks like a lot of places in western WA will finish August pretty close to normal.

But SEA might end up the coldest in terms of anomalies... its a brave new world for Jared!  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Up to 78F and beautiful. The rain that fell last night lasted about 5 mins or less and amounted to a goose-egg.

Onto another lengthy dry stretch.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Quillayute is at +1.8, BLI +1.7, Cedar Lake +1.3, Kent +1.3, Monroe +2.1, Bremerton +1.0.

Looks like a lot of places in western WA will finish August pretty close to normal.

Probably still going to be +2 or so by the end of the month here but we’re getting there! 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hurricanes hitting Cabo and New Orleans at the same time on Sunday night.    The party crowd is taking a big hit.

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-precip_6hr_inch-0292400.png

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

68 and cloudy here at noon. Was hoping we would stay under 70 but that doesn’t seem likely now. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Quillayute is at +1.8, BLI +1.7, Cedar Lake +1.3, Kent +1.3, Monroe +2.1, Bremerton +1.0.

Looks like a lot of places in western WA will finish August pretty close to normal.

Meanwhile we are still at +3.3 and the hottest summer ever is a lock.

This climate sucks and I'm beyond ready to move to Indiana.

  • lol 1
  • Weenie 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

This will be day 8 in a row of below normal temps at OLM. And 11 of the past 12.

Like I mentioned yesterday, the 79 on the 24th ruined SEA’s below average streak and woulda kept going at least until this weekend. Regardless, 7 of the last 9 days have been below average and on some days, quite substantial. SEA have now also drop below 80.0 for the high average to date. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honestly, this late summer also follows the trend of previous 5 or 6 summers as I was eluded to in this thread earlier in the month. August can be a tale of 2 halves, once we hit the 15th there can be a substantial shift and cooldown. Mid-80s weather can be hard to come by but not impossible! 

It would suggest there’ll be at least one more heat spike in the making thru the first half of Sept….. we’ll have to see. 
 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Link said:

Anybody know what happened to the NOW historical datasets? NOWData – NOAA Online Weather – SERCC OOPS PAGE CANNOT BE FOUND when you click on one of the station links below the map.

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate

This is the new NWS Climate Portal home page. Click on any of the WFO areas defined on the map, and you'll go straight to the NOWData tab for the climate data for that WFO (Weather Forecast Office).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

But SEA might end up the coldest in terms of anomalies... its a brave new world for Jared!  

It is definitely interesting that, in the warm season at least, the 30 year average shift appears to have made a bigger anomaly difference there than anywhere else.

But they were also one of the stations that saw the most increased UHI change in that period, so it also makes sense to an extent.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Honestly, this late summer also follows the trend of previous 5 or 6 summers as I was eluded to in this thread earlier in the month. August can be a tale of 2 halves, once we hit the 15th there can be a substantial shift and cooldown. Mid-80s weather can be hard to come by but not impossible! 

It would suggest there’ll be at least one more heat spike in the making thru the first half of Sept….. we’ll have to see. 
 

 

I'm glad I live over here.

 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Meanwhile we are still at +3.3 and the hottest summer ever is a lock.

This climate sucks and I'm beyond ready to move to Indiana.

Yeah, hottest summer on record looks safe for EUG and SLE. Not going to be close most places north of Portland, though. 

  • Like 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I don't know about anyone else, but I got ZERO rain last night.  The models were showing rain was coming.  It never came. :(

 

So far today it is 68F and cloudy.  Breezy. 

Everything just evaporated as it moved inland. Even for this morning there were some decent stuff showing up at the coast but it just disappeared. 
 

I got nothing here as well. 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NWbyNW said:

I don't know about anyone else, but I got ZERO rain last night.  The models were showing rain was coming.  It never came. :(

 

So far today it is 68F and cloudy.  Breezy. 

We got 0.01 of very light drizzle.  Now we are due for a long hot stretch! 😮 

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Everything just evaporated as it moved inland. Even for this morning there were some decent stuff showing up at the coast but it just disappeared. 
 

I got nothing here as well. 

Somehow it all just keeps 'evaporating'.........................

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unfortunately this light rain here looks pretty shortlived based on radar. Still nice to have a cool 70/58 temp spread today with 0.02” this morning. What a turnaround in the weather since 8/15. 

  • Like 3

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Link said:

Anybody know what happened to the NOW historical datasets? NOWData – NOAA Online Weather – SERCC OOPS PAGE CANNOT BE FOUND when you click on one of the station links below the map.

They changed a bunch of stuff today.  I found that on the regular Seattle NWS website this morning.

  • Sad 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Unfortunately this light rain here looks pretty shortlived based on radar. Still nice to have a cool 70/58 temp spread today with 0.02” this morning. What a turnaround in the weather since 8/15. 

We're getting enough to at least make it wet.  About .07 on the day now.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Up to 84F and a beautiful day. The dry summer keeps rolling on.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

We're getting enough to at least make it wet.  About .07 on the day now.

We’re getting some light rain again but not enough to wet the ground. 0.05” this month so far spread out over 3 separate days. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • iFred unpinned and unfeatured this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...