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August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


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7 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Couldn’t ask for a better day today! Spent most of the day at The Club at Snoqualmie Ridge taking some pictures for friends upcoming wedding next month. Just spectacular! 

5C638524-78B4-4496-A707-B41DE93E79E7.jpeg

My sons work there.   One is still working until UW starts school but he was off today and golfing there this afternoon.     Did you get pictures looking over the 18th green from the clubhouse?   That is the best view.  

Screenshot_20210829-223220_Google.jpg

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Quick update. Fire blew up today and overran all containment lines. Evacuation warnings have now been issued for all of South Lake Tahoe with Mandatory orders for the south side of town. It looks like Sierra At Tahoe ski resort has burned down already. We are evacuating all patients from our hospital tonight. Winds tomorrow and Tuesday really start cranking out of the southwest. I am assuming we will be forced out of town tomorrow. Pretty crazy to see where this fire started and where it is now. Not sure if South Lake Tahoe will be livable by the end of this week.

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Kind of an OMG GFS run.  Deep cold troughing, then a brief period of warm ridging and then then another deep cold trough with major GOA blocking.  If this theme continues we had better break out the heavy coats.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, AlTahoe said:

Quick update. Fire blew up today and overran all containment lines. Evacuation warnings have now been issued for all of South Lake Tahoe with Mandatory orders for the south side of town. It looks like Sierra At Tahoe ski resort has burned down already. We are evacuating all patients from our hospital tonight. Winds tomorrow and Tuesday really start cranking out of the southwest. I am assuming we will be forced out of town tomorrow. Pretty crazy to see where this fire started and where it is now. Not sure if South Lake Tahoe will be livable by the end of this week.

Sounds terrible.  I hope things don't turn out as bad as you're thinking right now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of an OMG GFS run.  Deep cold troughing, then a brief period of warm ridging and then then another deep cold trough with major GOA blocking.  If this theme continues we had better break out the heavy coats.

Day 16 is a little chilly... not heavy coat cold though.    ;)

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-0281600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Late in the run on the GFS you can actually track an area of cold air that originates in Siberia then makes a beeline through AK, Western Canada, and finally into the PNW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kind of an OMG GFS run.  Deep cold troughing, then a brief period of warm ridging and then then another deep cold trough with major GOA blocking.  If this theme continues we had better break out the heavy coats.

Side note... that type of pattern could really be problematic with wind in areas that have not had any meaningful rain yet.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Maybe.... doubtful tho. We only have .09 in the rain bucket since June. 

Rain has nothing to do with fall color.  In fact sunshine and chilly nights are what make it the most brilliant.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Quick update. Fire blew up today and overran all containment lines. Evacuation warnings have now been issued for all of South Lake Tahoe with Mandatory orders for the south side of town. It looks like Sierra At Tahoe ski resort has burned down already. We are evacuating all patients from our hospital tonight. Winds tomorrow and Tuesday really start cranking out of the southwest. I am assuming we will be forced out of town tomorrow. Pretty crazy to see where this fire started and where it is now. Not sure if South Lake Tahoe will be livable by the end of this week.

It looks like the fire just about to the Echo Lake, Johnson Pass area. I'm at a loss for words.

https://arcg.is/05v4ua0

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

Jim didn't  say anything about day 16, all that was said was "if the theme continues".

Hence the wink Chris.  👍

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Rain has nothing to do with fall color.  In fact sunshine and chilly nights are what make it the most brilliant.

Yes Ik that. I’m talking about the stress on the tree’s from the lack of rain. Look at the grass below the tree. It is dead and dry. Those are younger tree’s also so the roots aren’t terribly deep yet

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yes Ik that. I’m talking about the stress on the tree’s from the lack of rain. Look at the grass below the tree. It is dead and dry. Those are younger tree’s also so the roots aren’t terribly deep yet

Definitely stress... probably in poor soil too.   

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5 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Jim didn't  say anything about day 16, all that was said was "if the theme continues".

Bingo.  You kind of have to roll it forward a bit.  In mid to late October that would be a heavy coat scenario.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Bingo.  You kind of have to roll it forward a bit.  In mid to late October that would be a heavy coat scenario.

Chris wears shorts year-round... no joke.      

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22 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Quick update. Fire blew up today and overran all containment lines. Evacuation warnings have now been issued for all of South Lake Tahoe with Mandatory orders for the south side of town. It looks like Sierra At Tahoe ski resort has burned down already. We are evacuating all patients from our hospital tonight. Winds tomorrow and Tuesday really start cranking out of the southwest. I am assuming we will be forced out of town tomorrow. Pretty crazy to see where this fire started and where it is now. Not sure if South Lake Tahoe will be livable by the end of this week.

I guess you can at least take solace in the fact that you are living out Tiger Woods’ fantasy.

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28 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Quick update. Fire blew up today and overran all containment lines. Evacuation warnings have now been issued for all of South Lake Tahoe with Mandatory orders for the south side of town. It looks like Sierra At Tahoe ski resort has burned down already. We are evacuating all patients from our hospital tonight. Winds tomorrow and Tuesday really start cranking out of the southwest. I am assuming we will be forced out of town tomorrow. Pretty crazy to see where this fire started and where it is now. Not sure if South Lake Tahoe will be livable by the end of this week.

What side of the lake do you live on?

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21 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yes Ik that. I’m talking about the stress on the tree’s from the lack of rain. Look at the grass below the tree. It is dead and dry. Those are younger tree’s also so the roots aren’t terribly deep yet

The Garry oak meadows are totally brown here.  I snapped this photo about a week ago.  Drought stage 5 here now, which is at the top of the scale. 
 

 

3794A3B6-8C6D-4B50-B85D-6161C37B3B1E.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

South Lake in the Al Tahoe neighborhood. I work at the hospital as well.

Wow... be safe.    What a terrible situation.

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00Z ECMWF shows the Vancouver BC area and Whatcom County getting some significant rain over the next couple days...

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-0454400.png

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10 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

South Lake in the Al Tahoe neighborhood. I work at the hospital as well.

Definitely be safe, and I hope all goes will with transferring patients to a safer location.

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6 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Looks like a smirk.

This is the wink emoji 😉 on my phone.  

I just type ; and ) for a wink.  ;)

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Lol, its a smirk.

Lol... its a wink.  One eye is closed.  

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

My sons work there.   One is still working until UW starts school but he was off today and golfing there this afternoon.     Did you get pictures looking over the 18th green from the clubhouse?   That is the best view.  

Screenshot_20210829-223220_Google.jpg

Oh wow! I had no idea your sons works there! We were in the same area today then...

I was part of the wedding party as one of the groomsmen so we were following the photographer wherever he took us. Today was a pre-wedding pictures, etc....  we were behind a hole, but I have to look at the layout to see what hole it was. As a courtesy, we also tried to stay away from the holes as much as possible as not to disturb the people that were still golfing into the late evening hours. There was also another wedding going on, so we were not able to take pictures like the one above. That will have to wait until the day of the wedding! 

Overall, just a beautiful day up at the ridge and also definitely a lot greener. 

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

You stuck in the 90's?  Things have changed.

Timeless.   

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5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Oh wow! I had no idea your sons works there! We were in the same area today then...

I was part of the wedding party as one of the groomsmen so we were following the photographer wherever he took us. Today was a pre-wedding pictures, etc....  we were behind a hole, but I have to look at the layout to see what hole it was. As a courtesy, we also tried to stay away from the holes as much as possible as not to disturb the people that were still golfing into the late evening hours. There was also another wedding going on, so we were not able to take pictures like the one above. That will have to wait until the day of the wedding! 

Overall, just a beautiful day up at the ridge and also definitely a lot greener. 

Hope the weather cooperates on the wedding day... those views can totally disappear of course.    You were probably on the 18th hole and you probably saw my son.   

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1 minute ago, GHweatherChris said:

Not with this.

You are just dragging this out to keep it going.  ;) ;) ;)

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Lots of hornets nests being poked tonight.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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37 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

The Garry oak meadows are totally brown here.  I snapped this photo about a week ago.  Drought stage 5 here now, which is at the top of the scale. 
 

 

3794A3B6-8C6D-4B50-B85D-6161C37B3B1E.jpeg

00Z ECMWF shows some significant rain across Vancouver Island next weekend.

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ECMWF does not show much rain next weekend for the Seattle area... but it also does not show an amplified ridge later on.   Seems like avoiding offshore flow is the best solution until we get a region wide soaking. 

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Not really surprise to see a warmup in the second week of Sept time frame. Kinda had a feeling this would happen and hopefully it’ll be the last warmup for the summer. 
 

fwiw, a mid-80s for the highs for that timeframe, we’d be looking at about a +12-15F departure for the highs. Just no! 

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10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF 500mb Height Anomaly

floop-ecmwf-2021083000.500h_anom.na(1).gif

That day 10 pattern is pretty strange... but looks like it could evolve into a wet pattern.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Some of that could be the sudden temp drop.  In fact the nights will be so chilly this week the trees may begin to legitimately turn.

That does not look like fall foliage. We have trees here that looked like like these since early August and they look burnt and somewhat dry. I’ll take some pictures tomorrow up close, but I don’t think they are fall colors. 
 

fwiw, fall foliage for W.Wa do not typically start until 3rd week of Sept. so what @SouthHillFrostywas showing maybe way too soon. 

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25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That day 10 pattern is pretty strange... but looks like it could evolve into a wet pattern.

Yeah my thoughts as well it's quite close to turning into a zonal wet pattern.

6z GFS in 1 hour 50 minutes

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17 minutes ago, Cloud said:

That does not look like fall foliage. We have trees here that looked like like these since early August and they look burnt and somewhat dry. I’ll take some pictures tomorrow up close, but I don’t think they are fall colors. 
 

fwiw, fall foliage for W.Wa do not typically start until 3rd week of Sept. so what @SouthHillFrostywas showing maybe way too soon. 

Colors are changing down here from roughly Gresham-Sandy eastward and increasing with elevation up around Mt. Hood.

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2 hours ago, AlTahoe said:

Quick update. Fire blew up today and overran all containment lines. Evacuation warnings have now been issued for all of South Lake Tahoe with Mandatory orders for the south side of town. It looks like Sierra At Tahoe ski resort has burned down already. We are evacuating all patients from our hospital tonight. Winds tomorrow and Tuesday really start cranking out of the southwest. I am assuming we will be forced out of town tomorrow. Pretty crazy to see where this fire started and where it is now. Not sure if South Lake Tahoe will be livable by the end of this week.

Horrific. I am so sorry. Being there at the end of June and seeing what a beautiful area it was, this is just heart breaking. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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17 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Colors are changing down here from roughly Gresham-Sandy eastward and increasing with elevation up around Mt. Hood.

Interesting, perhaps the cooler nights and sunshine during the days have helped. I should’ve paid attention to this when I was at Snoqualmie ridge but looking at the pic I took today, there are some changes but the leaves on tree closest in the pic look burnt. It’s also like that here at home, except they look worse and a lot more yellow/brown.

fall colors are very different imo. 

727E3D7D-2290-4BC0-8DD2-943DC7C46B6C.jpeg

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