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August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


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1 hour ago, iFred said:

We've got that weird mix of a humid looking sky and amber light from wildfire smoke in Everett. Made for a fun looking sunrise.

Of course I enhanced it to see the rays but it was a very cool sunrise as is.  

7F5DA49E-43DA-48B8-B355-CF6820BE6B2F.jpeg

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Nice looking ECMWF run!  That little secondary shortwave sets things up much more nicely for us.  We're due for something to go our way for once.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Sure would be nice if that insane death ridge stayed offshore and actually set up some sort of sustained (more than 1-2 days) troughing over us. But we’ve been burned so many times by cool August teases in recent years that it’s pretty hard not to be skeptical 🌭 

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Pretty incredible that their top 5 June/July heat combos have all come in the past decade. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Nice looking ECMWF run!  That little secondary shortwave sets things up much more nicely for us.  We're due for something to go our way for once.

I actually agree with the last sentence at this point. Trouble is I’m not sure how much that matters 🌭 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

Sure would be nice if that insane death ridge stayed offshore and actually set up some sort of sustained (more than 1-2 days) troughing over us. But we’ve been burned so many times by cool August teases in recent years that it’s pretty hard not to be skeptical 🌭 

Right there with you. Best case scenario is probably a couple of days with -1 departures south of Olympia. 

  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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10 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Sure would be nice if that insane death ridge stayed offshore and actually set up some sort of sustained (more than 1-2 days) troughing over us. But we’ve been burned so many times by cool August teases in recent years that it’s pretty hard not to be skeptical 🌭 

image.jpeg.4fd574e6f5d3e1f3e77a5712a72c33e4.jpeg

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Culver Dome Josh already has his Commodore Vic 28 cassette deck drive fired up! 

I'll restart my Apple II with green monochrome screen. I was playing a spirited game of Oregon Trail. My whole party died of dysentery near La Grande.

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS...

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-7819200.png

Brrrrrrrr

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Brrrrrrrr

I doubt today hits 87 in Seattle.

Physical context is a prerequisite in properly interpreting those meteograms (and ensemble means in general). Same mistakes keep being made, willingly in many cases.

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Good improvement on the EPS PNA forecast as well.  Maybe this improvement for week two on the operational is onto something.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

I doubt today hits 87 in Seattle.

Physical context is a prerequisite in properly interpreting those meteograms (and ensemble means in general). Same mistakes keep being made, willingly in many cases.

I agree.  The EPS is certainly better than the 0z by a mile at the 500mb level for week two.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Good improvement on the EPS PNA forecast as well.  Maybe this improvement for week two on the operational is onto something.

-PNA never meant a damnn thing down here for February in terms of delivering the goods so why would it now?

None of those indices mean anything for us here since we won't see an Arctic event this far south again for a very long time.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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For the month of July, Spokane had an average high of 91.6 and Spokane Valley averaged 94.3. Spokane has had 33 highs of 90+ and 6 highs of 100+ this summer. Spokane Valley has had 39 highs of 90+ and 8 highs of 100+ this summer.

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7 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

-PNA never meant a damnn thing down here for February in terms of delivering the goods so why would it now?

None of those indices mean anything for us here since we won't see an Arctic event this far south again for a very long time.

It's unbelievable how dead of a winter month February was prior to the 2010's. 

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13 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

-PNA never meant a damnn thing down here for February in terms of delivering the goods so why would it now?

None of those indices mean anything for us here since we won't see an Arctic event this far south again for a very long time.

We don't get very cold these days either. It doesn't seem like the cold air masses are as deep as they used to be. 

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3 hours ago, Phil said:

Mammoth trade burst incoming for the second and third week of August. Wouldn’t shock me if we’re back to La Niña ONI conditions by the end of the month.

How's that cold continental air and troughing from the first of July working out for you?  ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

 

And no, I don't hope a second trough follows on the heels of this impotent looking thing scheduled to roll through this week.

 

This is summer man.  It should be sunny and warm every day until October 1st at least.

 

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3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For those scoring at home, there were a few model runs that entertained the possibility of an amplified GOA ridge 10-12 days out back in mid June.😬

200.gif

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SLE up to 87, another 90+ high appears to be a lock. Going to need to start looking into the record for 90+ highs at multiple locations. 

That storm just south of K-Falls looks pretty impressive on radar. 

  • Storm 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

For those scoring at home, there were a few model runs that entertained the possibility of an amplified GOA ridge 10-12 days out back in mid June.😬

Yeah I noted last night how similar hour 240 of the Euro looked to late June. I think we're going to see a pretty significant heatwave once this trough moves through, though 110 is (probably) not going to happen again. I'm really hoping we can avoid a round of offshore flow as this trough into the mountain west but I know some sadists out there might enjoy it.

euro240.thumb.PNG.f14b10c1ccb0ca60c2c17561c26354e5.PNGd

Capture500mb.thumb.PNG.cb3ef24c0e3f017011e54f66db6071da.PNG

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Just now, James Jones said:

Yeah I noted last night how similar hour 240 of the Euro looked to late June. I think we're going to see a pretty significant heatwave once this trough moves through, though 110 is (probably) not going to happen again. I'm really hoping we can avoid a round of offshore flow as this trough into the mountain west but I know some sadists out there might enjoy it.

euro240.thumb.PNG.f14b10c1ccb0ca60c2c17561c26354e5.PNGd

Capture500mb.thumb.PNG.cb3ef24c0e3f017011e54f66db6071da.PNG

I don't think anyone would enjoy the smoke that would bring in.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Up to 91F. They keep on coming!!

83C36AFB-5C44-4794-ABAD-1EC3C905B777.webp

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

SLE up to 87, another 90+ high appears to be a lock. Going to need to start looking into the record for 90+ highs at multiple locations. 

That storm just south of K-Falls looks pretty impressive on radar. 

This one might skirt by, unless more is developing near the cell.

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The EPS control was pretty nuts on the 12z.

 

cold.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

It's unbelievable how dead of a winter month February was prior to the 2010's. 

This stuff is very cyclical.  I think the hot summer thing is also.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This stuff is very cyclical.  I think the hot summer thing is also.

There's been 2 good Febs this far south since 1996, one of which didn't even have a sub-freezing high...or are we not part of the region?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This stuff is very cyclical.  I think the hot summer thing is also.

I agree. And it used to be that August torched here but hasn't been the case all these years I spent here.

The cold lows will be back too. I have mentioned before that a couple of the coldest lows ever were recorded in the last decade. 

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

There's been 1 good Feb this far south since 1996...or are we not part of the region?

You are (lol), it could just be bad luck. February has averaged easily a few more inches of snowfall compared to 2000-2009 in K-Falls. I take it an early start to Spring was not all that uncommon down here in that time frame. Plus this wasn't the first year reservoirs shut down in this area. A former member here used to live in Klamath and it indeed happened then.

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5 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I agree. And it used to be that August torched here but hasn't been the case all these years I spent here.

The cold lows will be back too. I have mentioned before that a couple of the coldest lows ever were recorded in the last decade. 

You are (lol), it could just be bad luck. February has averaged easily a few more inches of snowfall compared to 2000-2009 in K-Falls. I take it an early start to Spring was not all that uncommon down here in that time frame. Plus this wasn't the first year reservoirs shut down in this area. A former member here used to live in Klamath and it indeed happened then.

Caught me before I remembered the early 2014 event, which had a couple of days that stayed below freezing, which started as some brief snow, then mostly freezing rain.

And there will no doubt be some record-breaking cold here in October that will be the highlight of the regular season just like last year.

Has anybody else on here gone longer than Jan 14, 2017 since their last sub-freezing high?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Caught me before I remembered the early 2014 event, which had a couple of days that stayed below freezing, which started as some brief snow, then mostly freezing rain.

You guys actually had more snow than me in Feb 2014. Colder as well in points at or north of Redmond. But for some reason as you went into this county temps were in the 40's for highs. 

Feb 2011, 2012, 2017 and 2019 were all pretty good.

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23 minutes ago, James Jones said:

Yeah I noted last night how similar hour 240 of the Euro looked to late June. I think we're going to see a pretty significant heatwave once this trough moves through, though 110 is (probably) not going to happen again. I'm really hoping we can avoid a round of offshore flow as this trough into the mountain west but I know some sadists out there might enjoy it.

euro240.thumb.PNG.f14b10c1ccb0ca60c2c17561c26354e5.PNGd

Capture500mb.thumb.PNG.cb3ef24c0e3f017011e54f66db6071da.PNG

Hot dry winds, smoke, piss poor air quality when the wind isn't blowing, and heat. Yay.

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28 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Up to 91F. They keep on coming!!

83C36AFB-5C44-4794-ABAD-1EC3C905B777.webp

Salem just did it too. Starting August, July, and June with 90+ days!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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