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August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I’m very happy with my .13” this morning! 

Lol you were pretty much guaranteed rain today and tomorrow at your location. I just happened to be in the rain shadow unfortunately. I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if we got nothing tomorrow too but we will see. At most it’ll be a few hundredths. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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Wish me luck Guy's, Wild fire 2 miles from My property so we are heading up to try and do something. Going to cut in a fire road with my d6. Fuckkk This summer and this dry weather

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We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wish me luck Guy's, Wild fire 2 miles from My property so we are heading up to try and do something. Going to cut in a fire road with my d6. Fuckkk This summer and this dry weather

Good luck to you. Really hope it doesn’t get worse but it seems like it will especially with it warming up again next week. 

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Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wish me luck Guy's, Wild fire 2 miles from My property so we are heading up to try and do something. Going to cut in a fire road with my d6. Fuckkk This summer and this dry weather

Be careful. Life > property. 

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12z GFS looks brutal. Might get spared out here some with NW flow but it's just one building ridge after another along the west coast.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, Kayla said:

12z GFS looks brutal. Might get spared out here some with NW flow but it's just one building ridge after another along the west coast.

 

All with an Indian Ocean MJO going.  Makes no sense.  At any rate the longer nights and weaker sun are beginning to help a little on the hot days.  Especially as far as how hot the house gets.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

The seasonal ECMWF is still bullish on a quick start to winter. And FWIW, the analogs that perform tend to start early as well (where as the ones that suck tend to suck early).

It has been 9 years since we have had a strong December in the snowfall department. It's very odd to go this long without one. I hope this is the season it comes back. 

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I see a number of fires on the visible sat pic over the northern quarter of Central and Eastern WA which weren't there yesterday.  Must have been lightning strikes that were slow to fully ignite.

Thunderstorms are a disaster over here. Dry lightning is something we don't need. Straight rain is far more beneficial.

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About 0.15" at my place so far. Most of this has been mist/drizzle. Must have been actually light showers before I got up this morning. It's has been hovering right around 61* where I am in Kirkland. It's even a bit foggy at the hill tops. 

Looks like the flow is favoring rain shadowing over the south Sound area. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wish me luck Guy's, Wild fire 2 miles from My property so we are heading up to try and do something. Going to cut in a fire road with my d6. Fuckkk This summer and this dry weather

Stay safe and keep us posted! 

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49 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

 

All with an Indian Ocean MJO going.  Makes no sense.  At any rate the longer nights and weaker sun are beginning to help a little on the hot days.  Especially as far as how hot the house gets.

You haven't gotten the climate change memo? 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The west coast is becoming unlivable. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wish me luck Guy's, Wild fire 2 miles from My property so we are heading up to try and do something. Going to cut in a fire road with my d6. Fuckkk This summer and this dry weather

Good luck to you. I hope the fire either calms down or the wind doesn't push it towards your property. Keep us updated!

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

 

All with an Indian Ocean MJO going.  Makes no sense.  At any rate the longer nights and weaker sun are beginning to help a little on the hot days.  Especially as far as how hot the house gets.

Who knows but could be because of some disruption in the western Pacific due to typhoon Mirinae. This hot stuff shown on 12z is happening in the mid-range and the typhoon is due impact Japan Aug. 7-8 then continues its track north-eastward. 
 

Typhoons in the western pacific usually continues to track westward, but this one is heading eastward…. So that maybe an influence. I don’t know, just making shiz up as I go along now. 

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wish me luck Guy's, Wild fire 2 miles from My property so we are heading up to try and do something. Going to cut in a fire road with my d6. Fuckkk This summer and this dry weather

Best of luck and be safe!! Update us as soon as you can.

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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Wish me luck Guy's, Wild fire 2 miles from My property so we are heading up to try and do something. Going to cut in a fire road with my d6. Fuckkk This summer and this dry weather

You are in my thoughts my man bigtime. If me and Andrew were close enough we would come help you in any way we could, god this is awful...seriously, you and Andrew are 2 of the nicest most gracious people I've ever chatted with and/or met. You don't deserve this 😞

None of us deserve this...what's coming...it's been a tinderbox for too long and now we are going to see Mother Nature's wrath wreaking havoc across the region. If that's not a worse summer than 2015 then I don't know what is. Last summer was my least favorite of all time because of how it ended alone. This one just might surpass it.

Currently 80F and sunny with barely a cloud in the sky. At least it's not smoky tho...for now.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My thoughts on the on what's to come these next 10 days.

picard-facepalm.jpg

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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EC looking about as bad...this is a fuckking nightmare.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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On 8/1/2021 at 3:47 PM, snow_wizard said:

Good improvement on the EPS PNA forecast as well.  Maybe this improvement for week two on the operational is onto something.

 

On 8/1/2021 at 3:48 PM, snow_wizard said:

I agree.  The EPS is certainly better than the 0z by a mile at the 500mb level for week two.

 

On 8/1/2021 at 4:34 PM, snow_wizard said:

The EPS control was pretty nuts on the 12z.

 

cold.png

 

On 8/1/2021 at 4:37 PM, Deweydog said:

This will be fun to revisit next week.

Did not need to wait until next week.   

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Now that the dust has settled with the models of course they have chosen the worst possible outcome for us.  Extremely frustrating.  This could have so easily broken our way.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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DK Fail.gif

Fuck this bullshit.png

sfct.us_nw.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 60F (Oct 13)
  • Coldest low: 32F (Oct 12)
  • Days with below freezing temps:1 (Most recent: Oct 12, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

EC looking about as bad...this is a fuckking nightmare.

I think a lot of it is just plain bad luck.  Parts of the country that should be hot with this La Nina context have been cool a lot of the time.  We may get a huge reward down the road.  God knows we are due for a major long lasting cold trough.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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27 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Who knows but could be because of some disruption in the western Pacific due to typhoon Mirinae. This hot stuff shown on 12z is happening in the mid-range and the typhoon is due impact Japan Aug. 7-8 then continues its track north-eastward. 
 

Typhoons in the western pacific usually continues to track westward, but this one is heading eastward…. So that maybe an influence. I don’t know, just making shiz up as I go along now. 

I think there's definitely some influence there. I saw an interesting study about last September's amplified pattern that caused our downslope windstorm on Labor Day. They linked this amplification to 3 typhoons that recurved over the Korean peninsula in the span of 12 days and really juiced the wavetrain.

"Three Western Pacific Typhoons Strengthened Fire Weather in the Recent Northwest U.S. Conflagration"

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL091430

""The weather pattern that contributed to rapidly spreading fires in Oregon in early September 2020 can be traced back to an unexpected source: Three typhoons in the western Pacific that ran into the Korean Peninsula within two weeks of each other. Together, Typhoon Bavi, Typhoon Maysak, and Typhoon Haishen each contained enough energy to perturb the jet stream – creating an atmospheric wave train that enhanced the hot, dry weather of the western United States. This study uses forecast models and weather observations to show that these typhoons amplified areas of high and low pressure in North America leading to the intense winds which rapidly spread fire in Oregon, Washington, and California. While the impacts of climate change on these events were not evaluated in this study, the implication is that the effect of weather extremes that are known to be exasperated by climate warming are not always limited to the region in which those extremes occur.""

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think a lot of it is just plain bad luck.  Parts of the country that should be hot with this La Nina context have been cool a lot of the time.  We may get a huge reward down the road.  God knows we are due for a major long lasting cold trough.

I don’t know if luck has anything to do with it. This has been a very consistent/persistent  pattern and one that’s hard to break out of. 

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As toasty as today’s models are, it’s actually a better setup compared a “cooler” scenario than last night’s GFS run.  Gradients stay mainly flat or lightly onshore with more in the way of mid level moisture.

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

As toasty as today’s models are, it’s actually a better setup compared a “cooler” scenario than last night’s GFS run.  Gradients stay mainly flat or lightly onshore with more in the way of mid level moisture.

Agree. I dont care if it gets hot again just as long as we can avoid as much red flag weather as possible. 

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13 minutes ago, wx_statman said:

I think there's definitely some influence there. I saw an interesting study about last September's amplified pattern that caused our downslope windstorm on Labor Day. They linked this amplification to 3 typhoons that recurved over the Korean peninsula in the span of 12 days and really juiced the wavetrain.

"Three Western Pacific Typhoons Strengthened Fire Weather in the Recent Northwest U.S. Conflagration"

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL091430

""The weather pattern that contributed to rapidly spreading fires in Oregon in early September 2020 can be traced back to an unexpected source: Three typhoons in the western Pacific that ran into the Korean Peninsula within two weeks of each other. Together, Typhoon Bavi, Typhoon Maysak, and Typhoon Haishen each contained enough energy to perturb the jet stream – creating an atmospheric wave train that enhanced the hot, dry weather of the western United States. This study uses forecast models and weather observations to show that these typhoons amplified areas of high and low pressure in North America leading to the intense winds which rapidly spread fire in Oregon, Washington, and California. While the impacts of climate change on these events were not evaluated in this study, the implication is that the effect of weather extremes that are known to be exasperated by climate warming are not always limited to the region in which those extremes occur.""

Thank you for this! I read this study last year and was looking for it earlier as there seems to be some correlation. 

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74 and partly sunny at noon. I figured we would max out at 74 today. Don’t think we will hit 80 but it’ll probably end up a bit warmer than I expected at this location. 

Monthly rainfall-1.16”

Cold season rainfall-1.16”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-51

Coldest Low-35

 

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31 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think a lot of it is just plain bad luck.  Parts of the country that should be hot with this La Nina context have been cool a lot of the time.  We may get a huge reward down the road.  God knows we are due for a major long lasting cold trough.

La Niña has been on hiatus over the summer, which is typical. Other factors are driving the western warmth. Just unfortunate timing.

Good chance next summer takes a very different course.

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29 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I don’t know if luck has anything to do with it. This has been a very consistent/persistent  pattern and one that’s hard to break out of. 

Some of it is luck, but conditions were always going to be favorable for a huge 4CH this summer. That much was evident by March/April.

There’s nothing inexplicable about it.

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At least the ECMWF breaks the ridge down fairly quickly.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Phil said:

Some of it is luck, but conditions were always going to be favorable for a huge 4CH this summer. That much was evident by March/April.

There’s nothing inexplicable about it.

I was going to comment I think the 4CH / North American ridge has just been too powerful for the Pacific ridge to get good leverage on it this summer.  The Pacific High has tried to crush the 4CH repeatedly, but too much energy always gets shunted westward which pumps up an F***ing ridge over us every time.  Once the inevitable seasonal weakening of the 4CH happens the Pacific High should take over and put us in persistent NW flow.  Just a theory.

I think the powerful 4CH has been the reason for huge string of hot summers.  The seasonal breakdown causes the sudden crash in the fall we have seen in recent years.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, wx_statman said:

Thought you guys might appreciate this - I downloaded station data from GHCN-D and looked at all of the all-time record highs set or tied in 2021. Then I made a map of the margins by which all-time record highs were broken. We already knew the June heat wave was insane, but I think this map really shows it. Many all-time records broken by 4-13 degrees F across western OR/WA, southern BC and into Alberta.

Some of the largest margins are (location/2021 maximum/previous all-time record):

-Simonette, AB (108/95)

-Kamloops, BC (117/105)

-Quillayute, WA (110/99)

-Summerland, BC (113/102)

-Alberni Robertson Creek, BC (114/104) *on Vancouver Island!

-Salem, OR (117/108)

-Portland, OR (116/107)

-Mazama, WA (112/103)

-Burnaby Simon Fraser University, BC (103/94)

 

 

Really awesome map!  That clearly shows how we were at ground zero for that massive heatwave.   

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think Jim’s visit with reality may serve well with respect to model trends over the next few dayz.

 

I was ok with things in the spring and even the first half of summer minus the 5 days from hell, but it's getting irritating now.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 30

Lows 32 or below = 1

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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