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August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


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4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Yesterday Spokane picked up .05 inches of rain. The Spokane Valley picked up .21 inches of rain. Convection can vary quite a bit.

I've seen a couple times KLMT left with a trace and my house would have a stream of water running down the hill. 

Definitely can vary a lot. 

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The ECMWF drops a nice bomb on us.  850s drop 9 below normal in some parts of WA.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What a massive flip for the Euro. It's actually more aggressive with troughing next week than the GFS.

About time we get some good news. Really nice to see this heatwave might  not end up being quite as long as we thought. Hopefully it’s the last one this year. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Just now, TacomaWaWx said:

About time we get some good news. Really nice to see this heatwave might  not end up being quite as long as we thought. Hopefully it’s the last one this year. 

Once this one passes we're probably a week out from the longer nights and non-optimal sun angle being in our favor against oppressive heat.

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4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Bye summer.

It would be ironic (and par for the course) if August and September end up being cool and wet after Phil warned us for months that August and September would be hot and dry.  😀

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It would be ironic (and par for the course) if August and September end up being cool and wet after Phil warned us for months that August and September would be hot and dry.  😀

I might have made the correct call with taking Wednesday-Sunday off, could be summers last gasp. 

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3 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Once this one passes we're probably a week out from the longer nights and non-optimal sun angle being in our favor against oppressive heat.

Here locally we’ve only hit 90 3 times past august 20th over the last 15 years. I’m pretty sure this’ll be the last big heatwave of the summer. I’m sure there will be more warmth and summer weather later in august and in September…but the worst is most likely about to be over. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I might have made the correct call with taking Wednesday-Sunday off, could be summers last gasp. 

Way too early to say that... could definitely be more summery weather later in August and September.   In fact I would bet on that.  👍

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7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It would be ironic (and par for the course) if August and September end up being cool and wet after Phil warned us for months that August and September would be hot and dry.  😀

I suspect we’ll see one typical early fall ridge/offshore flow combo but the month on the whole won’t be bad.

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21 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Summer might be wrapping up early this year. 

Given tanking ENSO and PNA I wouldn’t completely bet against it...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Way too early to say that... could definitely be more summery weather later in August and September.   In fact I would bet on that.  👍

We need your Euro ensemble maps. I'm starting to feel cautiously optimistic we'll see a solid trough next week.

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Just now, James Jones said:

We need your Euro ensemble maps. I'm starting to feel cautiously optimistic we'll see a solid trough next week.

12Z EPS shows some troughing for next week...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-9547200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-9547200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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the 12z EPS is even better.  Two distinct troughs and the PNA drops to nearly -3 on the mean.  Yes PNA does matter in the summer.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Summer might be wrapping up early this year. 

It could.  God knows we aren't due for anything in the way of late summer warmth or an Indian summer.  At any rate it appears we are going to get some extremely rare (by recent standards) August troughing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z EPS shows some troughing for next week...

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-9547200.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_5day-9547200.png

Disappointingly muted signal. The scenario I'm really hoping we avoid is a shot of cool and dry air dropping into Montana and giving us warm offshore flow with very low humidity which a few model runs have hinted at as a possibility. I found it pretty hilarious when Jim was celebrating a run that showed that, it was as if the wildfires had become sentient.

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gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_71.thumb.png.760871f5e71995997854c831d9379059.png

Yesterday's giga-LR GEFS came in range of picking up on the reforming SPV as trades reconsolidate themselves and heights start lowering again.

Winter is cooommmmmiiiinggg...... :)

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It could.  God knows we aren't due for anything in the way of late summer warmth or an Indian summer.  At any rate it appears we are going to get some extremely rare (by recent standards) August troughing.

I've always thought of this meaning summer-like weather returning (after an absence) in the second half of September into early October period.

In which case, you actually are kind of due for that.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It could.  God knows we aren't due for anything in the way of late summer warmth or an Indian summer.  At any rate it appears we are going to get some extremely rare (by recent standards) August troughing.

Nice... with one post you all but guaranteed late summer warmth and Indian summer later in fall!  

Summer is going to end on July 5th this year right?  👍

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just got caught up on today's models runs. Very nice after this heatwave.

This could very well be the last heatwave of the summer as we head towards the end of the month. Longer/cooler nights and shorter day time makes it difficult for any oppressive heat. Not to say this is the end of summer but prolonged +90s weather, is harder to come by middle of August. 

In the past 6 years for SEA (would like to do 5 but want to include 2015):

August 15-Sept 2015: 

  • 2 85-90
  • 0 +90 

August 15-Sept 2016:

  • 2 85-90
  • 4 +90
    • Most of the heat for this month occurred late Aug and Sept completely flipped the switch. Did not even record an 80s day in Sept.

August 15-Sept 2017:

  • 8 85-90
  • 2 +90
    • This was an exception year with the heat lingering last few days of Aug. into early Sept. By the time Mid Sept rolls around, we're in the 60s and 70s.

August 15-Sept 2018:

  • 3 85-90
  • 1 +90

August 15-Sept 2019:

  • 2 85-90
  • 0 +90

August 15-Sept 2020:

  • 3 85-90
  • 2 +90

 

As shown, with the exception of 2016 and 2017, late season heat is harder to come by. Even if it does show up, it was very short-lived. One thing to note is that by the time we reached middle of Sept. the cool and reasonable weather have pretty much settled in. 

That being said, we have about a month of summer left. Enjoy it while you can. 

Source: www.wrh.noaa.gov

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25 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

"Juneuary" was scary accurate when you consider how recent Januaries have gone.

January is probably pretty jealous right now watching these +PNA records being set in August. We're due for a modern suckfest to finally unseat January 1953 as the warmest on record anyway, though a constant SW flow deluge may not be the worst thing in the world after this spring and summer.

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_71.thumb.png.760871f5e71995997854c831d9379059.png

Yesterday's giga-LR GEFS came in range of picking up on the reforming SPV as trades reconsolidate themselves and heights start lowering again.

Winter is cooommmmmiiiinggg...... :)

Proof! 😄

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/Utqiaġvik+AK?canonicalCityId=412282b6b7875d20253da4b129bbef4dd157752fd8c649f84bad6bae34ad95eb

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Absolutely gorgeous day... sunny with a few puffy clouds around the edges and 79 degrees right now.  These type of days have been pretty common this summer with only 3 days over 90 here since the big heat wave in June.   The majority of the days have been sunny and in the upper 70s or in the 80s.     Consistently a little warmer than normal but very little in the way of uncomfortable heat.  

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It could.  God knows we aren't due for anything in the way of late summer warmth or an Indian summer.  At any rate it appears we are going to get some extremely rare (by recent standards) August troughing.

Are we allowed to call them that any more?  Asking for a friend....

 

I would love to see some good troughs swing through August, and even into September with some nice sunny & warm (not too hot) days in between.  Hopefully the extreme heat/humidity crap we have been dealing with this summer will exit stage left.

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5 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Are we allowed to call them that any more?  Asking for a friend....

 

I would love to see some good troughs swing through August, and even into September with some nice sunny & warm (not too hot) days in between.  Hopefully the extreme heat/humidity crap we have been dealing with this summer will exit stage left.

Good point on the first comment!  

And how many days of "extreme heat" has there been in Bellingham since the first of July?    The warmest temp in the last 5 weeks at BLI has been 89... and only 8 out of the last 40 days have been above 80 there.     

 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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18Z GFS is quite dry with the trough early next week... its deep but it dives a little too far inland for meaningful rain.    

Its also much warmer with northerly flow... shows temps around 80 on Tuesday and Wednesday.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Absolutely gorgeous day... sunny with a few puffy clouds around the edges and 79 degrees right now.  These type of days have been pretty common this summer with only 3 days over 90 here since the big heat wave in June.   The majority of the days have been sunny and in the upper 70s or in the 80s.     Consistently a little warmer than normal but very little in the way of uncomfortable heat.  

The average high temp at Palmer in July ran a couple degrees cooler than both 2015 and 2018. Same with June 2021 compared to June 2015.

Goes to show that it hasn't just been a Puget Sound proximity thing this summer, although it certainly was a fair amount cooler closer to the water.

*disclaimer: this does not take away from what may end up as the hottest summer on record in some locations further south. It just shows that it's been different depending on where you are, but in general western OR has been on a whole different level than western WA.

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It would be ironic (and par for the course) if August and September end up being cool and wet after Phil warned us for months that August and September would be hot and dry.  😀

Of course it’s gonna happen. 😂

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2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_71.thumb.png.760871f5e71995997854c831d9379059.png

Yesterday's giga-LR GEFS came in range of picking up on the reforming SPV as trades reconsolidate themselves and heights start lowering again.

Winter is cooommmmmiiiinggg...... :)

Yup. Only a few weeks away.

Right now GEFS has August 24th as a consensus date for inception of the vortex.

AAB07402-747F-42CB-8BF3-5E12CFFAE0F7.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

I'd be more worried about a blowtorch August if you said it was going to be the coolest August since 1995.

Been a bad/difficult year so far. For me and in general..too many moving parts and changes in mean states.

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Really surprised.  I thought today was going to be all sunshine, but so far it's been cloudy in the morning with some sun breaks now in the afternoon.  Still mostly cloudy, especially as I look north.  It has hit 70F today.  The projected high was 75F, but we won't hit that at all.  

 

Not that anyone really cares for a region they don't live in, but the forecast shows RAIN next week.  Of course, take it with a grain of salt.  It also lowered the HIGH temps for the heat wave on two of the days and increased one to 90F.  This big upcoming heatwave is looking less and less bad, at least for the north Puget Sound.  Hopefully this will be the case for all my PNW brethren. :)  I truly do love this whole region.

 

Screen Shot 2021-08-09 at 4.10.55 PM.png

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Good point on the first comment!  

And how many days of "extreme heat" has there been in Bellingham since the first of July?    The warmest temp in the last 5 weeks at BLI has been 89... and only 8 out of the last 40 days have been above 80 there.     

 

I meant it as more for the region, especially Oregon.  With regards to BLI, even though I live about 4 miles as the crow flies, my summer experience has been very different from there.  My max temp since the first of July was 92, and I have had 18 of the last 40 days above 80 here.  I think it has been fairly breezy at BLI, that has definitely not been the case here. 

Still nothing compared to what Oregon has had to deal with, (especially TWL), but more than what I want.  I think part of it is that it seems more humid than it has in years past....I haven't looked at any data to confirm if that's true, but it sure feels like it.

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8 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I meant it as more for the region, especially Oregon.  With regards to BLI, even though I live about 4 miles as the crow flies, my summer experience has been very different from there.  My max temp since the first of July was 92, and I have had 18 of the last 40 days above 80 here.  I think it has been fairly breezy at BLI, that has definitely not been the case here. 

Still nothing compared to what Oregon has had to deal with, (especially TWL), but more than what I want.  I think part of it is that it seems more humid than it has in years past....I haven't looked at any data to confirm if that's true, but it sure feels like it.

Down south here since July first our max high temp is 88…and we’ve had 17 days at or above 80. Pretty close to your location for being 100 miles south. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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