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August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


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6 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

What, you don’t like 4 straight days from 102-108 and no rain? Such a lovely summer we are having. 

Somehow the ridge positioning is an improvement over prior runs of GFS.

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So is anyone allowed to comment on the fact that two heatwaves of such magnitude in one summer would be pretty unusual, or will the sun police crack down on them and tell us it could be worse?

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6 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So is anyone allowed to comment on the fact that two heatwaves of such magnitude in one summer would be pretty unusual, or will the sun police crack down on them and tell us it could be worse?

Yeah, it will suck.

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Canadian is a little slower and likes the idea of a little inside slider action. Definitely more offshore flow potential with this setup which would be smokier but potentially cooler as well. Pick your poison!

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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FWIW, Dr. Roundy’s tropical forcing analogs do suggest another heatwave is possible in mid-August. And as it stands now, there’ll probably be more in September.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

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15 minutes ago, Jesse said:

So is anyone allowed to comment on the fact that two heatwaves of such magnitude in one summer would be pretty unusual, or will the sun police crack down on them and tell us it could be worse?

You can say it’s unusual, but IN NO WAY can you connect to it to any medium or longer term climate trends

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Just now, RentonHillTC said:

You can say it’s unusual, but IN NO WAY can you connect to it to any medium or longer term climate trends

Actually any trends at all. It’s an anomaly. They happen. Deal with them as everyone else does and get the family out on the boat. Don’t be the last man out. Nothing you can do about it my man.

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

FWIW, Dr. Roundy’s tropical forcing analogs do suggest another heatwave is possible in mid-August. And as it stands now, there’ll probably be more in September.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html

The models seem to agree.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Four days after our cooler stint we are back up to hot numbers again.

gfs_T2m_nwus_45.png

Not again! So done with hot weather. I am ready for autumn now.

Definitely saw that red sunset tonight. 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t think the dude from Lake O is gonna have much to say about the Euro.😟

A lot of sad faces on this forum tonight, turn those frowns upside down. It could be far worse. Think about Hanford for a moment. Do you all feel better now? Of course you do!

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I really hope these don't hold up.  GFS is showing some hot temps for the PNW from August 12-14.  Not just hot... but really hot.  Like late June 2021 hot.  :(  Here are images of the runs.  The Puget Sound could see high 90s to 100s again.  Eastern Washington would be 90s to low 100s, same for Eastern Oregon.  Non-coastal western Oregon would be roasting in the 100s.  😔

I hope and pray this doesn't happen.  When are we going to get some much needed rain?  Please!  😥

 

Screen Shot 2021-08-02 at 12.10.38 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-08-02 at 12.09.55 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-08-02 at 12.10.09 AM.png

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7 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

I really hope these don't hold up.  GFS is showing some hot temps for the PNW from August 12-14.  Not just hot... but really hot.  Like late June 2021 hot.  :(  Here are images of the runs.  The Puget Sound could see high 90s to 100s again.  Eastern Washington would be 90s to low 100s, same for Eastern Oregon.  Non-coastal western Oregon would be roasting in the 100s.  😔

I hope and pray this doesn't happen.  When are we going to get some much needed rain?  Please!  😥

 

Screen Shot 2021-08-02 at 12.10.38 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-08-02 at 12.09.55 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-08-02 at 12.10.09 AM.png

After what we've gone through thus far, we can handle anything. I'm not really worried, but I must say that this is one relentlessly hot summer. It's really impressive from an anomaly standpoint.

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Today will be two minutes and forty two seconds SHORTER than yesterday!

But enough talking about daylight hours... I’ve been ruminating over and marking down our slow descent back to the winter solstice for a month and a half now.... But where have the results been, climatologically speaking?

Well the wait is now over! August 2nd marks the first official day where the daily climatological average temperature at KSEA begins to decrease. Today they average is 65.4°F; down 0.1°F from their yearly two week-long thermodynamic plateau of 65.5°F.

Not only are our days getting shorter, but they will be slowly averaging cooler. :) 

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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16 minutes ago, sand dune said:

Eventually sun angles catch up with us, and we cool off and get rain et cetera. By October this will all be forgotten. We'll be just fine.😉

Tell that to people who lost their entire towns to wildfire last year. 

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Tell that to people who lost their entire towns to wildfire last year. 

And the cities that will be burning this year.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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59 currently in Tacoma. I’m So excited about getting up at 3am to go to work the next 2 weeks  🤮

Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Took my son out kayaking yesterday, very pleasant day out. Launched from Larrabee and paddled up to Chuckanut Island for lunch.  There was a very distinct line on Lummi Island showing the smoke level.  It got rather breezy on the way back, making for a fun paddle through a moderate chop (moderate from a kayak perspective).  On a side note, I've been kayaking for at least 8-10 years, and finally had my first unintentional swim.  Total rookie mistake, but it happened.  I haven't looked at water temps for the sound this year, but the water was definitely warmer than I expected.  It actually felt pretty good!

IMG_1363.jpg

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1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Took my son out kayaking yesterday, very pleasant day out. Launched from Larrabee and paddled up to Chuckanut Island for lunch.  There was a very distinct line on Lummi Island showing the smoke level.  It got rather breezy on the way back, making for a fun paddle through a moderate chop (moderate from a kayak perspective).  On a side note, I've been kayaking for at least 8-10 years, and finally had my first unintentional swim.  Total rookie mistake, but it happened.  I haven't looked at water temps for the sound this year, but the water was definitely warmer than I expected.  It actually felt pretty good!

IMG_1363.jpg

Hope you were close to shore when you flipped….yikes! I have a couple recreational kayaks so I stay within swimming distance of the shore…..usually. Lol….yep, any wave in a kayak looks HUGE! 

Had a low of 58 and currently 60*

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Looks like we got down to 64F. Up to 72F and smoky.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Pretty decent intrusion of low clouds this morning.  Nice to see the 850s peak today and models have trimmed back the 850s over the next few days.

It certainly appears the uncertainty is pretty extreme for week two.  We have had solutions range from deep troughing to a major heatwave around day 10.  No doubt we are due for one of these things to break to the cold side for us, but who knows.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty decent intrusion of low clouds this morning.  Nice to see the 850s peak today and models have trimmed back the 850s over the next few days.

It certainly appears the uncertainty is pretty extreme for week two.  We have had solutions range from deep troughing to a major heatwave around day 10.  No doubt we are due for one of these things to break to the cold side for us, but who knows.

Feeling better about it since the GFS seems to have folded on the 06, but it's so borderline it won't take much of a slight nudge of the departing low to turn the furnace up.

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1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like we got down to 64F. Up to 72F and smoky.

You guys have just had a horrible experience down there.  Low clouds and pretty cool here right now

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Forecast high of 96 at SLE today, 95 tomorrow, 93 Wednesday. Then a possible respite for 4-5 days hopefully. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Feeling better about it since the GFS seems to have folded on the 06, but it's so borderline it won't take much of a slight nudge of the departing low to turn the furnace up.

Yeah...this is one of those situations where a slight difference around day 6 could have huge implications for day 10.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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The mood is pretty manic in here, bouncing around with individual GFS runs. Preparation for winter. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 minute ago, Jesse said:

YOu havfe trained them well Andrew

Spank you. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12z looks a bit troughier. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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