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August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


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10 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

 

Euro looks near the same as Canadian through next Tuesday.

ECMWF definitely does not agree with the GFS... but the GFS lead the way with the troughing this weekend so you can't totally discount it yet.   

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5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF definitely does not agree with the GFS... but the GFS lead the way with the troughing this weekend so you can't totally discount it yet.   

06z GFS was like this Euro run though. Pretty typical GFS flip flopping.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Pretty remarkable flip by the 12z Euro compared to the 00z run though for late next week. Looking like 80's are done for the year out here.

455725859_ScreenShot2021-08-19at12_50_41PM.thumb.png.3130c148fb435a2ac75e204485a1987e.png

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Boy this would be a dream come true. Now if we could just get our first sub-freezing high since Jan 2017 here this coming winter.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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As chilly as the 12z ECMWF is there is almost no rain for Seattle.  It actually shows today being the warmest day of the next 10, and it ain't that warm today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

As chilly as the 12z ECMWF is there is almost no rain for Seattle.  It actually shows today being the warmest day of the next 10, and it ain't that warm today.

atleast it tries to spit at us a few times later in the run. lots of time for things to change until then

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As chilly as the 12z ECMWF is there is almost no rain for Seattle.  It actually shows today being the warmest day of the next 10, and it ain't that warm today.

The ECMWF is not really that chilly... it shows lots of mid 70s which is pretty close to normal for late August.   

ecmwf-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-9374400.png

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3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The ECMWF is not really that chilly... it shows lots of mid 70s which is pretty close to normal for late August.   

ecmwf-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-9374400.png

Atleast it’s looking like we’re in a below normal-normal regime for now. Much different than the normal-above normal regime that’s dominated the last 2 months. Good news for us cold misers but no rain. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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70 and sunny here currently. Skies are really blue doesn’t look like there’s any smoke aloft. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Atleast it’s looking like we’re in a below normal-normal regime for now. Much different than the normal-above normal regime that’s dominated the last 2 months. Good news for us cold misers but no rain. 

Yeah... its cooler than what we have been seeing.   But not unusually chilly as we move towards September. 

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Just now, GHweatherChris said:

It all depends on personal opinion, you said so yourself the other day.

No... that was my point.   I am comparing it to statistical normal which is objective and not subjective.    

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50 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Boy this would be a dream come true. Now if we could just get our first sub-freezing high since Jan 2017 here this coming winter.

Those used to happen annually (or at least every 2 winters) back before I moved east of the cascades.

None there in Feb 2019?

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Beautiful day... currently 77 in North Bend and 76 here.    This is a subjective post Chris.  ;)

20210819_125815.jpg

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2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Noone was talking about your backyard though.

I did not refer to anyone else in that post... just an observation on this day in my area.

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4 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Climate Change overlooked this guys house. 

Not really... getting 5+ inches of rain this summer is drier than normal for this area but still enough to keep it looking greener than other places.    We could be 20 inches below normal for the year and still be WAY wetter than even a wet year in your area.  ;)

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4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not really... getting 5+ inches of rain this summer is drier than normal for this area but still enough to keep it looking greener than other places.    We could be 20 inches below normal for the year and still be WAY wetter than even a wet year in your area.  ;)

That's a little more than I've had the last 11.5 months. 

I've had decent precip years. I think the water year for 16-17 was around 15"?

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

That's a little more than I've had the last 11.5 months. 

I've had decent precip years. I think the water year for 16-17 was around 15"?

60 inches would be a very dry year out here.    So yeah... dry here is going to look quite different than dry there.  

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24 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Those used to happen annually (or at least every 2 winters) back before I moved east of the cascades.

None there in Feb 2019?

No it got up to 34F on the snow days with a DP in the mid-20s. Was such a weird setup with really high precip rates in Lane & Douglas Counties but it wasn't Arctic in nature.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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49 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Climate Change overlooked this guys house. 

I bet if you were to ask @1000'NorthBend he’d give you a different and in some cases better perspective but too bad he doesn’t post anymore because there always seems to be a counter argument/push back every time he does for the location. 🙃

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41 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Seems a little muggish out today. Only 71 degrees though. 

I noticed that as well.  Since we are "relatively close" to one another, we have fairly similar weather it seems.  You are usually a few degrees cooler (lucky).  It is 73F right now, blue skies, clouds towards the Cascades and north.  It feels warmer outside than it should.  

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31 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I bet if you were to ask @1000'NorthBend he’d give you a different and in some cases better perspective but too bad he doesn’t post anymore because there always seems to be a counter argument/push back every time he does for the location. 🙃

I specifically said climate change has not bypassed this area.

But there is no denying that a very dry year here is still way wetter than even a normal year in other areas... so don't expect the central Cascade foothills to look like a Klamath Falls brown wasteland.    Timmy was implying that it should not be lush here and it should look like a drought wasteland since we are in a drought.    But it doesn't look like a drought wasteland.    Maybe because we have had over 50 inches of rain so far this year... in a drought year.     

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful day... currently 77 in North Bend and 76 here.    This is a subjective post Chris.  ;)

20210819_125815.jpg

Is this your summer version of posting traffic cams that show bare and wet roads while someone getting excited about flurries?

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83º and a little humid in Everett. The June heatwave scorched a part of my lawn and it seems I just cant get anything to grow. Really hoping for a couple weeks of showers and sun to at least get seedlings rooted and mature before fall.

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4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Is this your summer version of posting traffic cams that show bare and wet roads while someone getting excited about flurries?

No... just a typical post about what is happening today.

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8 minutes ago, iFred said:

83º and a little humid in Everett. The June heatwave scorched a part of my lawn and it seems I just cant get anything to grow. Really hoping for a couple weeks of showers and sun to at least get seedlings rooted and mature before fall.

Its 83 there?

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10 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

I like the euro run last night. Second half of august could run way cooler than the first half. Let’s hope so I don’t even want it to hit 80 again this year 😂

Of course I say this and now later this afternoon it’s 79 here in Tacoma. Warmer than I expected here locally. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I specifically said climate change has not bypassed this area.

But there is no denying that a very dry year here is still way wetter than even a normal year in other areas... so don't expect the central Cascade foothills to look like a Klamath Falls brown wasteland.    Timmy was implying that it should not be lush here and it should look like a drought wasteland since we are in a drought.    But it doesn't look like a drought wasteland.    Maybe because we have had over 50 inches of rain so far this year... in a drought year.     

Well I was in sort of a flash sarcastic moment before 😜

I don't think your place will ever look like a wasteland even when many places become one.

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6 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Well I was in sort of a flash sarcastic moment before 😜

I don't think your place will ever look like a wasteland even when many places become one.

Well... if climate change continues then we will be in a bad situation here similar to what is happening in the Cascade foothills in Oregon.    We are in a favored spot for strong east winds and if its dry enough then all bets are off on being immune from a devastating fire.  It won't matter how much it rained the previous winter.     I believe that happened in 1910 out here in the Snoqualmie Valley.    

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The GFS continues to trend cooler with the weekend trough.  850s take a good nosedive.  Nice to see things trend cooler instead of torch like hell in the last few days before it happens.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... if climate change continues then we will be in a bad situation here similar to what is happening in the Cascade foothills in Oregon.    We are in a favored spot for strong east winds and if its dry enough then all bets are off on being immune from a devastating fire.  It won't matter how much it rained the previous winter.     I believe that happened in 1910 out here in the Snoqualmie Valley.    

I think it was in the 1910's and 1930's some small towns that stand today in Northern CA had wildfires near those communities. I have a relative that lives in Dorris. They were threatened a couple of times in the past. They are just small enough a fire could wipe them out in one evening.

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25 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The GFS continues to trend cooler with the weekend trough.  850s take a good nosedive.  Nice to see things trend cooler instead of torch like hell in the last few days before it happens.

Surface temps are actually warmer for Saturday and Sunday... not sure why.   See above.   It only shows 68 for tomorrow... but there is something different about the weekend days.

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79 for the high at SEA... at least through 5 p.m.

The 00Z ECMWF last night showed 76 and the 00Z GFS showed 81.    So a blend was best, but the GFS was actually closer.

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47 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z GFS... all good until that odd one-day heat spike at the end.  🤔

 

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-9396000.jpg

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.thumb.png.bd842b6bbd39d0fd2e2bfb58b9b398b9.png

Followed by a large convective outbreak. Historically early September is a really good period for thunderstorms because ridges can still supply heating while the midlatitudes moisten, and a more active jet stream means more progressive weather patterns + height falls, ergo initiation. 2013 and 2019 are two really good examples of electric Septembers.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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NORTHWEST FORECAST CHAMPIONSHIP UPDATE

Seattle ended at 76/53 on Wednesday.  Let's check out how everyone did.  If they were too hot, I have a + and the number.  Too cold is a - and the number.  If correct they got an = sign.

Everyone did pretty poorly this round.  KIRO won by one point for Wednesday over Weather Underground. 

OFFICIAL TOTALS: S - 82/60 M - 75/57 T - 67/54 W - 76/53

KING

S- 84/60 +2/=

M- 74/59 -1/+2

T- 73/57 +6/+3

W- 82/60 +6/+7

T- 83/61

F- 86/62

S- 89/63

KOMO

S- 82/61 =/+1

M- 73/56 -2/-1

T- 73/57 +6/+3

W- 83/59 +7/+6

T- 79/60

F- 81/60

S- 78/59

KIRO

S- 83/60 +1/=

M- 72/55 -3/-2

T- 71/56 +4/+2

W- 78/59 +2/+6

T- 79/58

F- 78/59

S- 77/59

Q13

S- 83/61 +1/+1

M- 73/56 -2/-1

T- 73/57 +6/+3

W- 80/59 +4/+6

T- 79/59

F- 80/60

S- 77/59

S- 77/58

WEATHERUNDER

S- 81/61 -1/+1

M- 73/55 -2/-2

T- 72/56 +5/+2

W- 79/59 +3/+6

T- 79/59

F- 80.59

S- 77/57

S- 77/58

 
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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_64.thumb.png.bd842b6bbd39d0fd2e2bfb58b9b398b9.png

Followed by a large convective outbreak. Historically early September is a really good period for thunderstorms because ridges can still supply heating while the midlatitudes moisten, and a more active jet stream means more progressive weather patterns + height falls, ergo initiation. 2013 and 2019 are two really good examples of electric Septembers.

That would be pretty fun.  

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6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That would be pretty fun.  

1354862212_download(43).thumb.png.7148c3c70e431f6ab147cbc45caf7ee8.png

And wet, too. Not many fire starts with these PWAT's.....!! Exceeding 1" over a wide swath, reaching 1.4" in the foothills. Upper end of climatology for this area.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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