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August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That big heatwave in August 2016 sort of gets lost in the shuffle, but I was just looking back on that one last night, wow. 

Couple of rare +90s here past august 20th during 2016. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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12Z GFS continues the theme of less troughing next week... looks like a beautiful week with lots of sun after tomorrow and pleasant temps in the mid 70s to low 80s in the Seattle area.

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Interior BC fires have cooled substantially. A lot of people have returned home. 
 

there was a fire start on southern Vancouver island yesterday.  There was a big plume of smoke over the area here much of the afternoon 

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6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Interior BC fires have cooled substantially. A lot of people have returned home. 
 

there was a fire start on southern Vancouver island yesterday.  There was a big plume of smoke over the area here much of the afternoon 

And more rain coming this weekend up there...

 

 

gfs-deterministic-nw-total_precip_inch-9763200.png

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28 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS continues the theme of less troughing next week... looks like a beautiful week with lots of sun after tomorrow and pleasant temps in the mid 70s to low 80s in the Seattle area.

It’s mostly on its own, though. As usual.

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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

It’s mostly on its own, though. As usual.

Yeah... I remember when the GFS was showing troughing for this weekend and the ECMWF was showing 80-85 degrees and sunshine.   That happened and I was crowing about the ECMWF at the time.    Did not work out and the GFS was right.  

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Either way... its sort of splitting hairs since the ECMWF also shows a sunny week with temps in the mid 70s.    

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12Z GFS...  and yes I realize it will not verify exactly like this and its probably a better guide for inland locations like my area which is away from the water.   But the general theme is still summery... today notwithstanding.  

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-9460800 (1).jpg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

E884BB1E-0057-48C7-810C-9B3E6FE2D3EB.thumb.jpeg.5aa6e18f75c99292b3536e32a9fcdb9b.jpeg

Great, eerie shot. Is that a back burn or just holding it to the road? 

Glad to hear you made it through safely. Enjoy your break in a very fortunate cool and rain soaked Montana.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 0.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 47.0º

Coldest low: 40.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

Nothing in sight weatherwise to help out with the multiple fires still raging across the region sadly. At least things have cooled off closer to average for now but something tells me we will pay for that before the season is over.

Noice to see you back dude. You were in our thoughts while you were away. Really unfortunate this troughing wont bring much appreciable rainfall. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Noice to see you back dude. You were in our thoughts while you were away. Really unfortunate this troughing wont bring much appreciable rainfall. 

The northern half of WA and southern BC will be getting appreciable rainfall. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-9752400.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

The northern half of WA and southern BC will be getting appreciable rainfall. 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-9752400.png

My brains foggy lol I meant a lot of the region. Glad I’m not going to have to get up for work at 3am anymore. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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35 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Great, eerie shot. Is that a back burn or just holding it to the road? 

Glad to hear you made it through safely. Enjoy your break in a very fortunate cool and rain soaked Montana.

Thank you!

That’s a back burn. We were doing a lot of those, and working a lot of nights. Which is kind of nice since it’s so much cooler then.

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19 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Noice to see you back dude. You were in our thoughts while you were away. Really unfortunate this troughing wont bring much appreciable rainfall. 

Thanks buddy.

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Looks like the 12Z ECMWF is going to go in a much more troughy direction than the GFS by the middle of next week.  

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I remember when the GFS was showing troughing for this weekend and the ECMWF was showing 80-85 degrees and sunshine.   That happened and I was crowing about the ECMWF at the time.    Did not work out and the GFS was right.  

A broken clock is right twice a day.

Don’t worry bro, you’ll get your death ridging and firestorms next month.

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26 minutes ago, Phil said:

A broken clock is right twice a day.

Don’t worry bro, you’ll get your death ridging and firestorms next month.

😀

So stupid.    Moral arguments about something none of us can control.   Very productive.

I would love a big regionwide rain event.    And still don't want it to be dark and cloudy every day until next spring.   I am sure many people agree.   

You just want to build strawmen for fun.    As usual.  

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12Z EPS has been trending higher with 500mb heights later next week and beyond.

Here is a comparison of the 12Z run yesterday on top and the new 12Z run on the bottom...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0238400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-0238400 (1).png

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Rain totals for the event next Thursday on the 12Z ECMWF... northern WA and southern BC win again.

 

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_24hr_inch-0065600.png

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1 hour ago, Jesse said:

E884BB1E-0057-48C7-810C-9B3E6FE2D3EB.thumb.jpeg.5aa6e18f75c99292b3536e32a9fcdb9b.jpeg

Ohhh. Wow. You're a wildland firefighter now? Heroes. They deserve everything with the tireless hard work and perhaps a 'thank you' parade. So many lightning start fires this Summer dozens and dozens compared to last year.

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2 hours ago, Jesse said:

Nothing in sight weatherwise to help out with the multiple fires still raging across the region sadly. At least things have cooled off closer to average for now but something tells me we will pay for that before the season is over.

Echoing the rest but it’s good to see you back and thank you for helping save as much of this region as you can with your efforts.

Looks like we’ve got the regular season band together for some preseason ballgames with the model riding. Anybody still left to show up for the season?

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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4 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Echoing the rest but it’s good to see you back and thank you for helping save as much of this region as you can with your efforts.

Looks like we’ve got the regular season band together for some preseason ballgames with the model riding. Anybody still left to show up for the season?

Sean nyberg lmao

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24 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

Ohhh. Wow. You're a wildland firefighter now? Heroes. They deserve everything with the tireless hard work and perhaps a 'thank you' parade. So many lightning start fires this Summer dozens and dozens compared to last year.

I’m not a full time firefighter. I work for the forest service and they give their employees an opportunity to get fire training and do two week assignments with the fire crew if they’re interested. So I figured I’d go for it.

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8 minutes ago, Jesse said:

I’m not a full time firefighter. I work for the forest service and they give their employees an opportunity to get fire training and do two week assignments with the fire crew if they’re interested. So I figured I’d go for it.

Was this your first time going out?

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Jeez I am still in Tacoma but I feel like I’m already at ocean shores…63 and cloudy. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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It kills me to say it, but feel like at least the first half of September is going to torch pretty hard this year.

We are never lucky enough to get locked into a long term troughy pattern this early and stay there these days. Even though that would be incredibly beneficial in many ways.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It kills me to say it, but feel like at least the first half of September is going to torch pretty hard this year.

We are never lucky enough to get locked into a long term troughy pattern this early and stay there these days. Even though that would be incredibly beneficial in many ways.

I’m pretty sure summers not over but it looks nice for now…mostly dry to the south. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

😀

So stupid.    Moral arguments about something none of us can control.   Very productive.

I would love a big regionwide rain event.    And still don't want it to be dark and cloudy every day until next spring.   I am sure many people agree.   

You just want to build strawmen for fun.    As usual.  

Strawmen burn real nice.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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25 minutes ago, Jesse said:

It kills me to say it, but feel like at least the first half of September is going to torch pretty hard this year.

We are never lucky enough to get locked into a long term troughy pattern this early and stay there these days. Even though that would be incredibly beneficial in many ways.

I think it holds off until the second week of September.

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Give or take a couple weeks with problematic timing...so could be next week, or could be nearing October.

You beat me to it... was going to say the same thing.   The one thing I know is that it won't be the second week of September now.  😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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The Sept heatwave will probly be a CCG event too just like last year.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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Even if we aren't getting substantial rain in the lowlands, low clouds/fog/mist and even light amounts of rain in the foothills and Cascades at least stop new starts from going wild.  Moistening up the 1 and 10 hour fuels can only help.  Less and less evaporation is happening as the sun angle lowers now.  Then again, east wind season is coming.

Would be nice to get a heavy soaking rain. It seems we have had some Augusts that the last week featured 0.5-1" even in the lowlands which squashed the fire season before we returned to heat/dry in September.  I can only imagine how much different last year would have been if we had a system before that huge east wind event.

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15 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

So the GFS and ECMWF both show tomorrow staying below 70 in Seattle... the GFS is actually colder with 66 compared to the ECMWF with 69.  

But then both models show temps well up into the 70s on Saturday despite it still being mostly cloudy.   

And Sunday is cooler again in the low 70s but almost totally sunny across the entire area by afternoon except for line of clouds and showers in the morning right over Randy's area (and Snohomish County) which is the remnant of a c-zone up there.    

 

Very confident that the GFS will be right for today with the 66. Maybe a bit on the lower side too. SEA is still 63 at 3pm. 

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4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS...  and yes I realize it will not verify exactly like this and its probably a better guide for inland locations like my area which is away from the water.   But the general theme is still summery... today notwithstanding.  

gfs-deterministic-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-9460800 (1).jpg

At least it’s no longer 99 for sept 4th!! 😂 

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I actually have a lot of faith in the GFS in the long range…. So first few days of Sept may torch or at the very least warm. Summer isn’t over! Not liking it, but it happens.
 

It’s also the time of the year that the heat may be associated with thunderstorms as well, so it’s something to keep an eye on. 

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Looks like my 3 day rainfall total is going to be 2.08" for my location with most of the entire region seeing similar amounts.

Just incredibly beneficial, especially in August with more on the way this weekend. August should easily go down as a top 5 wettest for many locations in the state.

 

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 0.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 47.0º

Coldest low: 40.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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