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August Wx Obs in the Pacific Northwest


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7 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

October cold is still kind of uncertain here wether it’s good or bad. 1949 it ended up being a good thing but in 2019 not so much. 

Seems like more often than not a cold October equals a disappointing winter…At least early to mid winter in my lifetime anyway. Everyone gets excited about cold October’s while I am over in the corner shaking my head about the impending split flow hell that usually comes and stays for weeks or the massive PNA spike that also seems to last forever. 

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12 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

October cold is still kind of uncertain here wether it’s good or bad. 1949 it ended up being a good thing but in 2019 not so much. 

Conventional wisdom on this forum has always been that it is good. Though in my lifetime October cold has almost always been a bad sign, maybe the only time it wasn't was 2006 and 2013. October 2008 had a cold snap, but it wasn't a cold October here. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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21 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

58 and mostly cloudy at 10am. Summer is over!

Sunny and 64 here... summer is back on!

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

October cold is generally not a positive sign in a Nino winter. Although 2009-10 delivered a bit before it turned on us.

In a Nina or neutral year it's fine.

The fact that it's going to be a Nina winter hopefully is a positive for all of us. I've found that wet Falls don't have to be cold ones. I'm personally rooting for a average one temperature wise. 

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37 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

October cold is still kind of uncertain here wether it’s good or bad. 1949 it ended up being a good thing but in 2019 not so much. 

November 1949 was a record warmest (for mean) here, so if we're asking for a hawt November it better count! lol

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39 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Seems like more often than not a cold October equals a disappointing winter…At least early to mid winter in my lifetime anyway. Everyone gets excited about cold October’s while I am over in the corner shaking my head about the impending split flow hell that usually comes and stays for weeks or the massive PNA spike that also seems to last forever. 

Pretty sure the only one who gets excited for October cold is Jim these days. Besides 1949 it is impending doom in recent years.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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1 minute ago, Kayla said:

Pretty sure the only one who gets excited for October cold is Jim these days. Besides 1949 it is impending doom in recent years.

Yeah how statistically nuts would it be for KLMT to have 3 consecutive cool Octobers in a row? Please no more dry fake October Kold. 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

October cold is still kind of uncertain here wether it’s good or bad. 1949 it ended up being a good thing but in 2019 not so much. 

 

54 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

October cold is generally not a positive sign in a Nino winter. Although 2009-10 delivered a bit before it turned on us.

In a Nina or neutral year it's fine.

Wish we could say the same down this way.

Of late the cold here in October has led to absolutely nothing in the south valley (Lane County)

Jesse downvote incoming: 😆

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Northern Rockies can produce some very impressive early season cold and snow. I don't mind seeing it now into September but hoping we can avoid it in October this year. It is the kiss of death heading into Winter.

I doubt it would be the kiss of death with a Nina.  Cold Octobers used to be pure gold for cold winters in the NW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I think last year there was some research done on Fall season markers for the following winters in the Puget Sound, and the general consensus was that:

  • Octobers are generally moot for the majority of the time.
  • November precipitation isn't a large indicator either
  • However, and this is interesting, November temperatures are an unusually strong indicator for the upcoming winter pattern, but only when warm

Basically, if November is warm in the Puget Sound (and in all likelihood western Oregon too), there's a very good chance that the upcoming winter will feature a decent cold snap, or will otherwise be consistently cold. October is irrelevant, and same for November precip. Cold Novembers have gone either way.

Can't speak for other areas, especially the intermountain west where conventional winter often begins in late October/November, so that October might be significantly more relevant...

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

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30 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Pretty sure the only one who gets excited for October cold is Jim these days. Besides 1949 it is impending doom in recent years.

Eh...1956, 1971, 1984, 1990, etc, etc.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Meatyorologist said:

I think last year there was some research done on Fall season markers for the following winters in the Puget Sound, and the general consensus was that:

  • Octobers are generally moot for the majority of the time.
  • November precipitation isn't a large indicator either
  • However, and this is interesting, November temperatures are an unusually strong indicator for the upcoming winter pattern, but only when warm

Basically, if November is warm in the Puget Sound (and in all likelihood western Oregon too), there's a very good chance that the upcoming winter will feature a decent cold snap, or will otherwise be consistently cold. October is irrelevant, and same for November precip. Cold Novembers have gone either way.

Can't speak for other areas, especially the intermountain west where conventional winter often begins in late October/November, so that October might be significantly more relevant...

The warm November rule has held true pretty consistently through the years.  Prior to this century October was much more relevant.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Crazy to think I wasn't even close to matching record lows. Phil would be interested in knowing it was 29 on 8/22/1987. 31 today in 1960.

Our record low for today is also 29F from that 1992 event. Good Analog 

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1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Seems like more often than not a cold October equals a disappointing winter…At least early to mid winter in my lifetime anyway. Everyone gets excited about cold October’s while I am over in the corner shaking my head about the impending split flow hell that usually comes and stays for weeks or the massive PNA spike that also seems to last forever. 

I totally disagree, but understand your sentiment.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

My apple crop is coming up!

039D842F-B284-4813-B08D-E9FB764E183E.jpeg

You don't have the blasted apple maggots there?  Nice looking apples!  I'm jealous.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I can officially say the sun actually feels good today.  Still can't get over how suddenly it changed.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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12 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I doubt it would be the kiss of death with a Nina.  Cold Octobers used to be pure gold for cold winters in the NW.

Used to be is the key word here.😉

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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A number of really good years in the CPC analogs today.  1951 is making a strong showing lately and dovetails nicely with the PDX record low this morning from the same year.  That winter had cold and snow, but was quite dry.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, Kayla said:

Used to be is the key word here.😉

I think it will change back, but who knows.  It makes a logical kind of sense that cold would be better that time of year.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I can officially say the sun actually feels good today.  Still can't get over how suddenly it changed.

Its gorgeous out there... I was actually just sitting outside soaking up the sun.   It was too dark for the last 3 days for my liking.     Sunny and 68 here now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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BTW October 2008 was notably cooler than normal and had a sharp cold snap fairly early in the month.  Cold ENSO that year and the winter was great.  We also had some places set all time record lows for October in late October 2006.  Another really good one.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

AQI's in the 500 - 700 range for the last 3 days. Supposed to continue through the week. What a terrible summer. 

20210822_174345.jpg

20210822_170305.jpg

Some smoke has blown in here from the Northern Cali fires today. Sounds like (looks like!) things really exploded there over the weekend. 

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I will say, at least here, a wet October is usually a very good sign. Our wettest October on record was 2016 and that turned out very well. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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9 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

AQI's in the 500 - 700 range for the last 3 days. Supposed to continue through the week. What a terrible summer. 

20210822_174345.jpg

20210822_170305.jpg

Horrible... that is what last September looked like here.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A number of really good years in the CPC analogs today.  1951 is making a strong showing lately and dovetails nicely with the PDX record low this morning from the same year.  That winter had cold and snow, but was quite dry.

That winter lake level Tahoe had 530" which is the highest amount recorded by almost 200" over the next highest winter. 

Please let that happen again!

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2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

That 1992 airmass was incredibly cold and marked the end of that torrid 12 months for us. Dropped down to 14 in Seneca and produced a monthly record low max of 44 in Kalispell with snow in the air. 

Of course it also coincided with Hurricane Andrew's landfall on the same days.

Need another Pinatubo.

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21 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A number of really good years in the CPC analogs today.  1951 is making a strong showing lately and dovetails nicely with the PDX record low this morning from the same year.  That winter had cold and snow, but was quite dry.

Lot of jet suppression that winter with a mostly southern storm track. Very wet October in the NW and then the jet stream spent most of the winter down south with cold airmasses over us.

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Conventional wisdom on this forum has always been that it is good. Though in my lifetime October cold has almost always been a bad sign, maybe the only time it wasn't was 2006 and 2013. October 2008 had a cold snap, but it wasn't a cold October here. 

It’s not a “sign” of anything. Plenty of warm/dry Octobers preceding cold PNW winters, and vice versa.

Interestingly, the -PNA/western trough pattern in October is generally forced via a phase-8 type tropical forcing signature (El Niño like). The Indo-Pacific/phase-5 type forcing (La Niña like) teleconnects to a +PNA/+TNH pattern (ridging) in October.

So unless people think an El Niño type circulation in the tropics is a good sign for winter, there’s not much to look into here.

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1 minute ago, Phil said:

It’s not a “sign” of anything. Plenty of warm/dry Octobers preceding cold PNW winters, and vice versa.

Interestingly, the -PNA/western trough pattern in October is generally forced via a phase-8 type tropical forcing signature (El Niño like). The Indo-Pacific/phase-5 type forcing (La Niña like) teleconnects to a +PNA/+TNH pattern (ridging) in October.

So unless people think an El Niño type circulation in the tropics is a good sign for winter, there’s not much to look into here.

With all due respect Phil, I think I know a lot more about our climate than you. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Eh...1956, 1971, 1984, 1990, etc, etc.

2018, 2010, 2003, 1988, 1978, 1964, etc.

All warm Octobers followed by significant winters.

DC4ED706-1AA7-4009-8F9C-7CA37D8B5158.png

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1 hour ago, Kayla said:

Pretty sure the only one who gets excited for October cold is Jim these days. Besides 1949 it is impending doom in recent years.

The October 2003 cold snap led to some good things later on. 03-04 is an underrated winter for the Portland area, I was 12 at the time and it was the first major winter event I experienced as a weather weenie. I have vague memories of the January 1998 event but for a kid that 6 year gap was an eternity.

Nice to see a legitimately cold morning here. Not to sound like Jim but I think we might be done with the anomalous ridging for the season, though I wouldn't be surprised if we get a few more 90 degree days scattered here and there.

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13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

With all due respect Phil, I think I know a lot more about our climate than you. 

Apparently you don’t. Because there is no correlation whatsoever between October temps and subsequent winters in PNW region. This is statistically demonstrable. Objective.

You’re offering subjective analysis based off memory, which, like everyone else’s, is flawed/incomplete.

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Just now, Phil said:

Apparently you don’t. Because there is no correlation whatsoever between October temps and subsequent winters in PNW region. This is statistically demonstrable. Objective.

You’re offering subjective analysis based off memory, which will always be flawed/incomplete. 

 

Precip matters, I'm not married to an argument on temp. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Precip matters, I'm not married to an argument on temp. 

Precip doesn’t matter either, near zero correlation. We had this same discussion a year ago.

There are roughly an equal number of dry and wet Octobers preceding significant winters in PNW region. And vice versa.

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9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Precip doesn’t matter either, near zero correlation. We had this same discussion a year ago.

There are roughly an equal number of dry and wet Octobers preceding significant winters in PNW region. And vice versa.

Looking forward to you creating a topic that supplies enough data to show otherwise.

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In the satellite era, there might be a (slight) tendency for drier Octobers to precede significant winters in PNW region, but not by much. Likely a fluke.

“Dry” westside Octobers include 2018, 2013, 2008, 2006, 1992, 1988, 1983, and 1978. This list contains the majority of significant westside winters in the satellite era.

877DB428-CF33-4B34-90E7-81BE8F86D25E.png

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59 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Used to be is the key word here.😉

Well you see, as our climate is maintained by the solar cycle which remains steadfast above the firminant, it is only a matter of time until the what we call the sun has to transit to the edge of the earthly plane before the ice walls in which our world exists within cast a shadow that finally cools us off.

Please educate yourself with this graphic.

image.png

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Weekend away to Bend and Portland to get away of the smoke in Medford when we came back Sunday was surprised there was no smoke but today is back. 😔 Is it Fall already??  

 image.png.c4ac380a52a05aedbab3696c48f80d6c.png

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