June 2015 Observations and Discussion

[Seahawkfan]

Nice light show last night/early this am Had one really Storm brought 40 Sustained 60 mph gusts early am took out the power for about 5 mins Internet for a couple hrs. 

[james1976]

It's rather peculiar to see the GFS runs come in and all are showing "Clipper" type systems rounding the base of the trough as we approach the month of July.  CFSv2 is looking really cool for next month.

I was looking at the 18z GFS yesterday and noticed the same! And it was showing almost a 'cutter' type system late next week followed by a cool push. I havent looked at any models since that run so idk if it's still there.

[Tom]

Is it to early to talk Winter???  Saw this post from JB today....Brazilian meteogram seeing every precip event as Snow from Mid Nov into Dec...now we all know that its just one model but there are other global climate models seeing something similar.  Another fast start to Winter???  3 for 3???  Just hope that the December pull-back isn't as bad as last year.  We'll see how the LRC sets up in October-November.

 

[Niko]

Is it to early to talk Winter???  Saw this post from JB today....Brazilian meteogram seeing every precip event as Snow from Mid Nov into Dec...now we all know that its just one model but there are other global climate models seeing something similar.  Another fast start to Winter???  3 for 3???  Just hope that the December pull-back isn't as bad as last year.  We'll see how the LRC sets up in October-November.

 

Actually, I was doing a google search a few days ago on "Winter 2015-16 Outlook", but, apparently nothing pops out yet. I guess its too soon. I'm wondering what kind of winter it will be. I have to admit, last year was not too harsh, even though it was cold and snow was present on the ground from December to March, it was an average winter, maybe slightly below normal tempswise, but definitely below normal in the snow department. I still remember "Winter 2013-14". Man, that was one heck of a winter. Snowstorm after snowstorm with brutal temperatures. Detroit, breaking its all time record snowfall was sweet, indeed.

[Tom]

Actually, I was doing a google search a few days ago on "Winter 2015-16 Outlook", but, apparently nothing pops out yet. I guess its too soon. I'm wondering what kind of winter it will be. I have to admit, last year was not too harsh, even though it was cold and snow was present on the ground from December to March, it was an average winter, maybe slightly below normal tempswise, but definitely below normal in the snow department. I still remember "Winter 2013-14". Man, that was one heck of a winter. Snowstorm after snowstorm with brutal temperatures. Detroit, breaking its all time record snowfall was sweet, indeed.

I've read and done some research regarding the El Nino's in the late 70's and 50's that had big implications on their respective winter seasons.  What I learned from them is when a mature El Nino develops (as is the case with the upcoming 2015-16 Winter season) it has a colder/snowier eastern CONUS...the key is to develop a Modiki (central based ENSO event) to get the storm track and cold air to funnel into the eastern CONUS.  You take into account the warm NE PAC waters and you can make the argument that there will be ample cold air to supply the lower 48.  Last year was a bust in the Plains, but from the Great Lakes and parts of the East, it wasn't too bad.  I just hope this time around Winter can spread the wealth and we can have some big bowling ball lows/cutters that can phase much better and not be as sheared out.

[james1976]

I think we should start a Winter thread. haha. Niko, I too recently did a google search for this upcoming Winter. Usually, early outlooks will start popping up during the Summer. I'm glad that Andrew at The Weather Centre will be back for this Winter.

[Tom]

I think we should start a Winter thread. haha. Niko, I too recently did a google search for this upcoming Winter. Usually, early outlooks will start popping up during the Summer. I'm glad that Andrew at The Weather Centre will be back for this Winter.

I think mid July you will begin to see some more Winter Outlooks being posted.  Also, I think Andrew will be coming out with his sometime this month or even this Saturday.  Maybe he got tied up with other things, but his last post indicated it would be in June. Glad to hear he will still be around.

[Tom]

Arctic Temps have been averaging near normal this Summer..

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png
 

Last year it was a little colder...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2014.png

[Tom]

The Sun continues to trend downward with regards to solar activity over the last 6 months...

 

http://www.solen.info/solar/images/solar.png

[james1976]

Arctic Temps have been averaging near normal this Summer..

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2015.png

 

Last year it was a little colder...

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2014.png

What could this mean for us?

[Tom]

What could this mean for us?

It doesn't necessarily tell us if it will be a colder or warmer winter.  All you can justify is the region has near normal temps which will allow less ice melt during the summer season.  I guess if you want to get technical, if there is more ice coverage in the arctic regions as we approach Fall, more cold air could build up earlier and faster.  Same concept as the Siberian Snow Cover build up in October.

[james1976]

Kinda was thinking that.....so the colder up there, the colder here potentially.

[Geos]

This month is sure colder than normal. Feels like late April today. High of 67° with a stiff NE wind off the lake - trace of rain.

 

So far it has been only 85° this year.

 

Rainfall in the last 30 days.

 

 

[Geos]

Just started pouring down rain. On radar the rain is coming off the lake. Lake effect in late June!?

 

[james1976]

Yeah, local met just posted temps over here have been near normal and precip above for June.

[james1976]

Just started pouring down rain. On radar the rain is coming off the lake. Lake effect in late June!?

 

http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/LOT/N0Q/LOT.N0Q.20150627.0102.gif

So far, this summer has been more interesting than last summer!

[Tom]

I gotta say, if only this storm system showed up in January!  It's very unusual to see a wound up storm like this cutting up the OV.  As for the Lake Effect, the high rez models were picking up on that since yesterday.  We are only 1/3 of the way thru Summer and 2 more months to go.  Last year, July was by far the coldest with a summer version of the PV that made a visit.  I don't think we see anything like that, but one or two significant cool shots are not out of the question.

[Tom]

Interesting facts about the Great Lakes and June in general from Skilling...all the rain is certainly filling up Lake Michigan and cooling it as well.

 

http://static.chicagoweathercenter.com/media/2015/06/tsFeature_062715-902x1024.jpg

[Tom]

This June looks likely it may end up becoming the cloudiest June on record and the state of Illinois is currently the 2nd wettest June on record...

 

https://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2015/06/26/now-second-wettest-june-on-record-for-illinois/

[Geos]

This June looks likely it may end up becoming the cloudiest June on record and the state of Illinois is currently the 2nd wettest June on record...

 

https://climateillinois.wordpress.com/2015/06/26/now-second-wettest-june-on-record-for-illinois/

 

Were getting the typical Pacific NW type of weather common in early summer and they are roasting out there!

Today couldn't get much better, near 70° lakeside and mid 70s inland.

[Hawkeye]

I avoided the widely scattered cells for most of the day, and I figured we were done, but a little line from up north made it all the way down here last hour.  The west end of the line held together as a potent little cell and went right over my house.  It may have been the best storm of the year.  As it approached the lightning was great, with many streaks.  At its peak the storm produced 40+ mph wind and pea size hail.  I received 0.78" of rain in 15 minutes.  My June total is now 10.36".

[Tom]

Tons of Rain this month across the nation...

 

[Geos]

A huge area of 5"+ for sure. 4.69" here to be exact. Average June rainfall in the last 15 years has been 4.80" at my house. The wettest month of the year closely followed by July and May. 

 

It was the cloudiest June on record for Chicago.

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
438 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

...JUNE 2015 WAS THE CLOUDIEST JUNE ON RECORD IN CHICAGO...

IF IT FELT LIKE JUNE WAS UNUSUALLY CLOUDY IN CHICAGO...DATA FROM 3
MILES SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY AIRPORT SHOWS THAT IT WAS. ONLY 46
PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE WAS OBSERVED. THIS SET A NEW RECORD
FOR THE CLOUDIEST JUNE IN CHICAGO. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS SET
BACK IN 1942 WHEN 48 PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE WAS OBSERVED.
THE NORMAL FOR PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE IN JUNE IN CHICAGO IS
65 PERCENT.

CLOUDIEST JUNES ON RECORD IN CHICAGO
------------------------------------

YEAR PERCENT OF POSSIBLE SUNSHINE
---- ----------------------------
2015 46
1942 48
1928 49
1969 49

SUNSHINE RECORDS FOR CHICAGO GO BACK TO 1893.

THANKS TO THE MIDWAY 3SW COOPERATIVE OBSERVER FRANK WACHOWSKI FOR
KEEPING AND MAINTAINING THE SUNSHINE PERCENTAGE DATASET SINCE 1996
AND PROVIDING NWS CHICAGO THE DATA FOR THIS PNS.

 

 

Personal observations.