Fall/Winter 2021/22 Predictions and Discussion

[Omegaraptor]

Out with football jerseys and in with ski reports! Post your predictions, analogs, etc for the coming fall and winter season here.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Moist

[snow_wizard]

I'm thinking about doing a forecast complete with maps and all of that this year.  I feel like this is the year to really go on the record.

[Dan the Weatherman]

I am hoping the entire western portion of the country is wet this winter to help alleviate the widespread severe drought conditions.

[TT-SEA]

9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking about doing a forecast complete with maps and all of that this year.  I feel like this is the year to really go on the record.

Throwing darts.    

[Deweydog]

November- Warm/wet

December- Cold/average

January- Average/average

February- Whatever

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

November- Warm/wet

December- Cold/average

January- Average/average

February- Whatever

It would be nice to have a warm February for a change! 

[Phil]

I’m bearish on this one.

But considering my track record of late, I’m sure the opposite will happen.

 

[snow_wizard]

14 hours ago, Deweydog said:

November- Warm/wet

December- Cold/average

January- Average/average

February- Whatever

I'm almost afraid December is too obvious.  Everything sure looks good for it though.

[snow_wizard]

12 hours ago, Phil said:

I’m bearish on this one.

But considering my track record of late, I’m sure the opposite will happen.

 

What are you thinking on QBO?  IMO it's already showing signs of another failed negative attempt at the lower levels.

[BLI snowman]

Warm/wet

Dry until late October

Very dry from March onwards. Fire

Quick event in early February with a Bellingham-north event in mid November 

[TacomaWaWx]

September warm/average

October warm/average

November average/wet

December cold/average

January warm/wet

February warm/average

 Definitely think this is the year we break the February trend and have a solid early winter event like many of us think. February’s been on an incredible roll but it’s gotta end eventually. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

September warm/average

October warm/average

November average/wet

December cold/average

January warm/wet

February warm/average

 Definitely think this is the year we break the February trend and have a solid early winter event like many of us think. February’s been on an incredible roll but it’s gotta end eventually. 

Cold Febs come in bunches.  The question is when will the latest streak end.  Historically speaking it should be close.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wet November is as far as I am willing to go at this point. 

[snow_wizard]

I've been thinking wet November myself, but my confidence is pretty low with that.

[crf450ish]

Guess we won't know what's going to happen until it's happening. Just like every other fall/winter around here, the dynamics are insanely difficult to predict/forecast.

[Phil]

On 8/25/2021 at 2:50 AM, snow_wizard said:

What are you thinking on QBO?  IMO it's already showing signs of another failed negative attempt at the lower levels.

It looks like a clean downwelling of easterly shear to me. Don’t see why it would hiccup again.

[Phil]

Super preliminary, low confidence:

Nov: Average/dry

Dec: Average/north-south gradient.

Jan: Warm/average

Feb: Cool/very wet.

Mar: Cool/wet.

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Super preliminary, low confidence:

Nov: Average/dry

Dec: Average/north-south gradient.

Jan: Warm/average

Feb: Cool/very wet.

Mar: Cool/wet.

I'll be stunned if it's that mild.  No doubt Mother Nature has proven she couldn't care less about what we think though.  I really have a feeling about December this year.  I suppose it could jump the shark and hit us in November though.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be stunned if it's that mild.  No doubt Mother Nature has proven she couldn't care less about what we think though.  I really have a feeling about December this year.  I suppose it could jump the shark and hit us in November though.

I reserve the right to change my mind.  

[Cloud]

Sept - Dry/average

Oct - Wet/average

Nov - Wet/warm

Dec - dry/cold

Jan - wet/cold

Feb - wet/average 

[Omegaraptor]

Hope I get to be somewhere where the mercury falls below 0F this winter. 

Prior to this summer I had never experienced 110F let alone 115F and kind of wanted to know what it was like... and in June I got my answer. I have no desire to repeat that.

Coldest I've been in is -7F, but I couldn't really remember it. I'll be on the eastside plenty this winter and the drive to Mt Bachelor takes you through some good radiational cooling/inversion spots. Enough trips and I feel like it's bound to happen. No more getting to Mt Hood on a 26 degree morning, then opening this forum while waiting for the lifts to start spinning and seeing it's 3F in Madras.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would really like to hear what people are thinking in regards to analogs. They are always an extremely inaccurate, but fun way to look ahead!

[Black Hole]

Long range forecasting is crap but it's still fun to think about. So with that said...

Southern Arizona (where I am) is almost always warm and dry during la nina so I will go with that. The Great Basin was horrid last winter, so my guess is a return to normal or perhaps above normal snowfall with average to slightly below average temperatures. PNW will probably be a bit cooler than normal and wetter than normal. As for whether that transitions to snowstorms is anybody's guess, but probably not a snowless winter coming up.  

[GHweatherChris]

11/21/2021

[GHweatherChris]

Mr Marine Layer, why are you confused?

[Mr Marine Layer]

5 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

Mr Marine Layer, why are you confused?

Don't know what happens on 11/21/2021

[GHweatherChris]

37 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Don't know what happens on 11/21/2021

Thats the fun of it.  Thats the day I pick to be my first wintery weather event!!  Last year I picked 11/20, didn't work, figured I would mix it up lol!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Oregon department of agriculture going with analogs of 1971-72, 1996-97, and 2008-09. 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon department of agriculture going with analogs of 1971-72, 1996-97, and 2008-09. 

What kind of track record do they have?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

22 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

What kind of track record do they have?

Not sure. Doesn't seem particularly great. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I like 2011-12 as an analog. 

[snow drift]

49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I like 2011-12 as an analog. 

I was thinking about that one and 2017-2018. 2011-2012 would be good times for you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I was thinking about that one and 2017-2018. 2011-2012 would be good times for you.

Yes, kind of a wishcast maybe, but 2nd year Nina. September 2011 and 17 had major heatwaves, which we thankfully did not experience this year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, kind of a wishcast maybe, but 2nd year Nina. September 2011 and 17 had major heatwaves, which we thankfully did not experience this year. 

A 2017-18 redux would be something of a worst case scenario from a drought perspective. That was a very dry water year for us. 

[snow drift]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, kind of a wishcast maybe, but 2nd year Nina. September 2011 and 17 had major heatwaves, which we thankfully did not experience this year. 

Both of them had a -Qbo. They aren't bad matches. Neither of them were very exciting up here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 hours ago, snow drift said:

Both of them had a -Qbo. They aren't bad matches. Neither of them were very exciting up here. 

2011-12 was by far the snowiest winter since I have lived here (And the first.). We had 4 major snow events with 10"+ including a 32" storm in January 2012, which was then followed by about 9" of rain in two days which caused major localized flooding in the Central Willamette Valley. Never experienced anything like that before or since. We have had some pretty nice snow events, but nothing close to that one. Nor have we seen an AR like what followed it. We had nearly 5.5" of rain on 1/18/12. The water was running down the hill by our shop on top of the snow and just running through the walls. 

[snow drift]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2011-12 was by far the snowiest winter since I have lived here (And the first.). We had 4 major snow events with 10"+ including a 32" storm in January 2012, which was then followed by about 9" of rain in two days which caused major localized flooding in the Central Willamette Valley. Never experienced anything like that before or since. We have had some pretty nice snow events, but nothing close to that one. Nor have we seen an AR like what followed it. We had nearly 5.5" of rain on 1/18/12. The water was running down the hill by our shop on top of the snow and just running through the walls. 

Was definitely a big event down there.

[AbbyJr]

 

[Mr Marine Layer]

Looks like a polar vortex for the East Coast.

[Phil]

On 9/21/2021 at 2:48 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, kind of a wishcast maybe, but 2nd year Nina. September 2011 and 17 had major heatwaves, which we thankfully did not experience this year. 

The amount of wildfire smoke injected into the stratosphere this summer was impressive, right on par with 2017/18. Which also happens to be a second year niña/-QBO following a large 4CH/western ridge summer.

Hard to argue against 2017/18 as an analog. On paper it’s probably the closest match.

[AlTahoe]

On 9/26/2021 at 10:02 AM, Phil said:

The amount of wildfire smoke injected into the stratosphere this summer was impressive, right on par with 2017/18. Which also happens to be a second year niña/-QBO following a large 4CH/western ridge summer.

Hard to argue against 2017/18 as an analog. On paper it’s probably the closest match.

I am going to need you to go back to the drawing board and come back with a better Analog

At one point in that winter Mobile Alabama had more snow than lake Tahoe through Mid Jan of that year. It took a SSW to finally bring us some snow in March of that season. I think we finished around 60% of normal. We have had back to back 50% of average winters for the first time since 1975-1977. A third one would be unprecedented. 

[Phil]

On 8/30/2021 at 6:24 PM, Phil said:

Super preliminary, low confidence:

Nov: Average/dry

Dec: Average/north-south gradient.

Jan: Warm/average

Feb: Cool/very wet.

Mar: Cool/wet.

Still preliminary. Slightly higher confidence overall but still very early in the game. * = low confidence.

Nov: Warm/Average*

Dec: Warm/Dry.

Jan: (Warm —> Cold)*/Average

Feb: Cold/Wet*

Mar: Average*/Wet*

[Black Hole]

On 9/26/2021 at 10:02 AM, Phil said:

The amount of wildfire smoke injected into the stratosphere this summer was impressive, right on par with 2017/18. Which also happens to be a second year niña/-QBO following a large 4CH/western ridge summer.

Hard to argue against 2017/18 as an analog. On paper it’s probably the closest match.

That was a terrible winter down my way, just 1" of water for the cool season. Hopefully we can do a bit better but most la ninas are below average here. 

[snow_wizard]

On 9/17/2021 at 2:10 PM, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Oregon department of agriculture going with analogs of 1971-72, 1996-97, and 2008-09. 

I would probably choose 1970-71 over 1971-72 even though 71-72 was the better winter here by quite a margin.  Mostly because of the likelihood of a somewhat negative QBO.  While a 1970-71 type winter would be great for you at the lower elevations it could have a strong N to S temperature gradient.  I think they are both ok analogs due to 1971-72 being a second year Nina.

[snow_wizard]

On 9/25/2021 at 9:21 AM, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks like a polar vortex for the East Coast.

The big story on that map is the blocking over Eastern Siberia and the Aleutians.  Cold outcome for the NW as well.

[Front Ranger]

On 9/26/2021 at 11:02 AM, Phil said:

The amount of wildfire smoke injected into the stratosphere this summer was impressive, right on par with 2017/18. Which also happens to be a second year niña/-QBO following a large 4CH/western ridge summer.

Hard to argue against 2017/18 as an analog. On paper it’s probably the closest match.

Bracing myself for a historically awful winter here. 2017-18 was the second worst winter I've witnessed here, after 2010-11. DEN only had 26" of snow, although many other areas in the metro had 35-45".

[Phil]

On 10/8/2021 at 6:14 PM, Front Ranger said:

Bracing myself for a historically awful winter here. 2017-18 was the second worst winter I've witnessed here, after 2010-11. DEN only had 26" of snow, although many other areas in the metro had 35-45".

Well, 26” would be a solid winter by my standards. 

[GHweatherChris]

I am gonna make 30 different forecasts and change em a few times, one of them has to end up kinda close to what happens.

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am gonna make 30 different forecasts and change em a few times, one of them has to end up kinda close to what happens.

Where’s your first one? You didn’t even have one yet! Phil has you beat already