Omegaraptor Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 Out with football jerseys and in with ski reports! Post your predictions, analogs, etc for the coming fall and winter season here. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted August 19, 2021 Report Share Posted August 19, 2021 Moist 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 24, 2021 Report Share Posted August 24, 2021 I'm thinking about doing a forecast complete with maps and all of that this year. I feel like this is the year to really go on the record. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted August 24, 2021 Report Share Posted August 24, 2021 I am hoping the entire western portion of the country is wet this winter to help alleviate the widespread severe drought conditions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 24, 2021 Report Share Posted August 24, 2021 9 hours ago, snow_wizard said: I'm thinking about doing a forecast complete with maps and all of that this year. I feel like this is the year to really go on the record. Throwing darts. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 24, 2021 Report Share Posted August 24, 2021 November- Warm/wet December- Cold/average January- Average/average February- Whatever Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted August 24, 2021 Report Share Posted August 24, 2021 1 hour ago, Deweydog said: November- Warm/wet December- Cold/average January- Average/average February- Whatever It would be nice to have a warm February for a change! 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 24, 2021 Report Share Posted August 24, 2021 I’m bearish on this one. But considering my track record of late, I’m sure the opposite will happen. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 25, 2021 Report Share Posted August 25, 2021 14 hours ago, Deweydog said: November- Warm/wet December- Cold/average January- Average/average February- Whatever I'm almost afraid December is too obvious. Everything sure looks good for it though. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 25, 2021 Report Share Posted August 25, 2021 12 hours ago, Phil said: I’m bearish on this one. But considering my track record of late, I’m sure the opposite will happen. What are you thinking on QBO? IMO it's already showing signs of another failed negative attempt at the lower levels. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 25, 2021 Report Share Posted August 25, 2021 Warm/wet Dry until late October Very dry from March onwards. Fire Quick event in early February with a Bellingham-north event in mid November Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted August 25, 2021 Report Share Posted August 25, 2021 September warm/average October warm/average November average/wet December cold/average January warm/wet February warm/average Definitely think this is the year we break the February trend and have a solid early winter event like many of us think. February’s been on an incredible roll but it’s gotta end eventually. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 25, 2021 Report Share Posted August 25, 2021 1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said: September warm/average October warm/average November average/wet December cold/average January warm/wet February warm/average Definitely think this is the year we break the February trend and have a solid early winter event like many of us think. February’s been on an incredible roll but it’s gotta end eventually. Cold Febs come in bunches. The question is when will the latest streak end. Historically speaking it should be close. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 25, 2021 Report Share Posted August 25, 2021 Wet November is as far as I am willing to go at this point. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 26, 2021 Report Share Posted August 26, 2021 I've been thinking wet November myself, but my confidence is pretty low with that. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted August 30, 2021 Report Share Posted August 30, 2021 Guess we won't know what's going to happen until it's happening. Just like every other fall/winter around here, the dynamics are insanely difficult to predict/forecast. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2021 Report Share Posted August 30, 2021 On 8/25/2021 at 2:50 AM, snow_wizard said: What are you thinking on QBO? IMO it's already showing signs of another failed negative attempt at the lower levels. It looks like a clean downwelling of easterly shear to me. Don’t see why it would hiccup again. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 30, 2021 Report Share Posted August 30, 2021 Super preliminary, low confidence: Nov: Average/dry Dec: Average/north-south gradient. Jan: Warm/average Feb: Cool/very wet. Mar: Cool/wet. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted August 31, 2021 Report Share Posted August 31, 2021 4 hours ago, Phil said: Super preliminary, low confidence: Nov: Average/dry Dec: Average/north-south gradient. Jan: Warm/average Feb: Cool/very wet. Mar: Cool/wet. I'll be stunned if it's that mild. No doubt Mother Nature has proven she couldn't care less about what we think though. I really have a feeling about December this year. I suppose it could jump the shark and hit us in November though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 31, 2021 Report Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 hour ago, snow_wizard said: I'll be stunned if it's that mild. No doubt Mother Nature has proven she couldn't care less about what we think though. I really have a feeling about December this year. I suppose it could jump the shark and hit us in November though. I reserve the right to change my mind. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted August 31, 2021 Report Share Posted August 31, 2021 Sept - Dry/average Oct - Wet/average Nov - Wet/warm Dec - dry/cold Jan - wet/cold Feb - wet/average 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted September 11, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 11, 2021 Hope I get to be somewhere where the mercury falls below 0F this winter. Prior to this summer I had never experienced 110F let alone 115F and kind of wanted to know what it was like... and in June I got my answer. I have no desire to repeat that. Coldest I've been in is -7F, but I couldn't really remember it. I'll be on the eastside plenty this winter and the drive to Mt Bachelor takes you through some good radiational cooling/inversion spots. Enough trips and I feel like it's bound to happen. No more getting to Mt Hood on a 26 degree morning, then opening this forum while waiting for the lifts to start spinning and seeing it's 3F in Madras. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 I would really like to hear what people are thinking in regards to analogs. They are always an extremely inaccurate, but fun way to look ahead! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted September 16, 2021 Report Share Posted September 16, 2021 Long range forecasting is crap but it's still fun to think about. So with that said... Southern Arizona (where I am) is almost always warm and dry during la nina so I will go with that. The Great Basin was horrid last winter, so my guess is a return to normal or perhaps above normal snowfall with average to slightly below average temperatures. PNW will probably be a bit cooler than normal and wetter than normal. As for whether that transitions to snowstorms is anybody's guess, but probably not a snowless winter coming up. 1 Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 16, 2021 Report Share Posted September 16, 2021 11/21/2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 16, 2021 Report Share Posted September 16, 2021 Mr Marine Layer, why are you confused? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 5 hours ago, GHweatherChris said: Mr Marine Layer, why are you confused? Don't know what happens on 11/21/2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 37 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Don't know what happens on 11/21/2021 Thats the fun of it. Thats the day I pick to be my first wintery weather event!! Last year I picked 11/20, didn't work, figured I would mix it up lol!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 Oregon department of agriculture going with analogs of 1971-72, 1996-97, and 2008-09. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Oregon department of agriculture going with analogs of 1971-72, 1996-97, and 2008-09. What kind of track record do they have? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 18, 2021 Report Share Posted September 18, 2021 22 hours ago, Front Ranger said: What kind of track record do they have? Not sure. Doesn't seem particularly great. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 I like 2011-12 as an analog. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 49 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: I like 2011-12 as an analog. I was thinking about that one and 2017-2018. 2011-2012 would be good times for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, snow drift said: I was thinking about that one and 2017-2018. 2011-2012 would be good times for you. Yes, kind of a wishcast maybe, but 2nd year Nina. September 2011 and 17 had major heatwaves, which we thankfully did not experience this year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yes, kind of a wishcast maybe, but 2nd year Nina. September 2011 and 17 had major heatwaves, which we thankfully did not experience this year. A 2017-18 redux would be something of a worst case scenario from a drought perspective. That was a very dry water year for us. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Yes, kind of a wishcast maybe, but 2nd year Nina. September 2011 and 17 had major heatwaves, which we thankfully did not experience this year. Both of them had a -Qbo. They aren't bad matches. Neither of them were very exciting up here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 22, 2021 Report Share Posted September 22, 2021 6 hours ago, snow drift said: Both of them had a -Qbo. They aren't bad matches. Neither of them were very exciting up here. 2011-12 was by far the snowiest winter since I have lived here (And the first.). We had 4 major snow events with 10"+ including a 32" storm in January 2012, which was then followed by about 9" of rain in two days which caused major localized flooding in the Central Willamette Valley. Never experienced anything like that before or since. We have had some pretty nice snow events, but nothing close to that one. Nor have we seen an AR like what followed it. We had nearly 5.5" of rain on 1/18/12. The water was running down the hill by our shop on top of the snow and just running through the walls. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow drift Posted September 22, 2021 Report Share Posted September 22, 2021 2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 2011-12 was by far the snowiest winter since I have lived here (And the first.). We had 4 major snow events with 10"+ including a 32" storm in January 2012, which was then followed by about 9" of rain in two days which caused major localized flooding in the Central Willamette Valley. Never experienced anything like that before or since. We have had some pretty nice snow events, but nothing close to that one. Nor have we seen an AR like what followed it. We had nearly 5.5" of rain on 1/18/12. The water was running down the hill by our shop on top of the snow and just running through the walls. Was definitely a big event down there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted September 23, 2021 Report Share Posted September 23, 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted September 25, 2021 Report Share Posted September 25, 2021 Looks like a polar vortex for the East Coast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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