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Fall/Winter 2021/22 Predictions and Discussion


Omegaraptor

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I'm thinking about doing a forecast complete with maps and all of that this year.  I feel like this is the year to really go on the record.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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9 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm thinking about doing a forecast complete with maps and all of that this year.  I feel like this is the year to really go on the record.

Throwing darts.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

November- Warm/wet

December- Cold/average

January- Average/average

February- Whatever

It would be nice to have a warm February for a change! 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I’m bearish on this one.

But considering my track record of late, I’m sure the opposite will happen.

 

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14 hours ago, Deweydog said:

November- Warm/wet

December- Cold/average

January- Average/average

February- Whatever

I'm almost afraid December is too obvious.  Everything sure looks good for it though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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12 hours ago, Phil said:

I’m bearish on this one.

But considering my track record of late, I’m sure the opposite will happen.

 

What are you thinking on QBO?  IMO it's already showing signs of another failed negative attempt at the lower levels.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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September warm/average

October warm/average

November average/wet

December cold/average

January warm/wet

February warm/average

 Definitely think this is the year we break the February trend and have a solid early winter event like many of us think. February’s been on an incredible roll but it’s gotta end eventually. 

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWaWx said:

September warm/average

October warm/average

November average/wet

December cold/average

January warm/wet

February warm/average

 Definitely think this is the year we break the February trend and have a solid early winter event like many of us think. February’s been on an incredible roll but it’s gotta end eventually. 

Cold Febs come in bunches.  The question is when will the latest streak end.  Historically speaking it should be close.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Wet November is as far as I am willing to go at this point. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I've been thinking wet November myself, but my confidence is pretty low with that.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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On 8/25/2021 at 2:50 AM, snow_wizard said:

What are you thinking on QBO?  IMO it's already showing signs of another failed negative attempt at the lower levels.

It looks like a clean downwelling of easterly shear to me. Don’t see why it would hiccup again.

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Super preliminary, low confidence:

Nov: Average/dry

Dec: Average/north-south gradient.

Jan: Warm/average

Feb: Cool/very wet.

Mar: Cool/wet.

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

Super preliminary, low confidence:

Nov: Average/dry

Dec: Average/north-south gradient.

Jan: Warm/average

Feb: Cool/very wet.

Mar: Cool/wet.

I'll be stunned if it's that mild.  No doubt Mother Nature has proven she couldn't care less about what we think though.  I really have a feeling about December this year.  I suppose it could jump the shark and hit us in November though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll be stunned if it's that mild.  No doubt Mother Nature has proven she couldn't care less about what we think though.  I really have a feeling about December this year.  I suppose it could jump the shark and hit us in November though.

I reserve the right to change my mind. ;) 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hope I get to be somewhere where the mercury falls below 0F this winter. 

Prior to this summer I had never experienced 110F let alone 115F and kind of wanted to know what it was like... and in June I got my answer. I have no desire to repeat that.

Coldest I've been in is -7F, but I couldn't really remember it. I'll be on the eastside plenty this winter and the drive to Mt Bachelor takes you through some good radiational cooling/inversion spots. Enough trips and I feel like it's bound to happen. No more getting to Mt Hood on a 26 degree morning, then opening this forum while waiting for the lifts to start spinning and seeing it's 3F in Madras.

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I would really like to hear what people are thinking in regards to analogs. They are always an extremely inaccurate, but fun way to look ahead!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Long range forecasting is crap but it's still fun to think about. So with that said...

Southern Arizona (where I am) is almost always warm and dry during la nina so I will go with that. The Great Basin was horrid last winter, so my guess is a return to normal or perhaps above normal snowfall with average to slightly below average temperatures. PNW will probably be a bit cooler than normal and wetter than normal. As for whether that transitions to snowstorms is anybody's guess, but probably not a snowless winter coming up.  

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Oregon department of agriculture going with analogs of 1971-72, 1996-97, and 2008-09. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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22 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

What kind of track record do they have?

Not sure. Doesn't seem particularly great. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I like 2011-12 as an analog. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I was thinking about that one and 2017-2018. 2011-2012 would be good times for you.

Yes, kind of a wishcast maybe, but 2nd year Nina. September 2011 and 17 had major heatwaves, which we thankfully did not experience this year. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes, kind of a wishcast maybe, but 2nd year Nina. September 2011 and 17 had major heatwaves, which we thankfully did not experience this year. 

A 2017-18 redux would be something of a worst case scenario from a drought perspective. That was a very dry water year for us. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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6 hours ago, snow drift said:

Both of them had a -Qbo. They aren't bad matches. Neither of them were very exciting up here. 

2011-12 was by far the snowiest winter since I have lived here (And the first.). We had 4 major snow events with 10"+ including a 32" storm in January 2012, which was then followed by about 9" of rain in two days which caused major localized flooding in the Central Willamette Valley. Never experienced anything like that before or since. We have had some pretty nice snow events, but nothing close to that one. Nor have we seen an AR like what followed it. We had nearly 5.5" of rain on 1/18/12. The water was running down the hill by our shop on top of the snow and just running through the walls. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2011-12 was by far the snowiest winter since I have lived here (And the first.). We had 4 major snow events with 10"+ including a 32" storm in January 2012, which was then followed by about 9" of rain in two days which caused major localized flooding in the Central Willamette Valley. Never experienced anything like that before or since. We have had some pretty nice snow events, but nothing close to that one. Nor have we seen an AR like what followed it. We had nearly 5.5" of rain on 1/18/12. The water was running down the hill by our shop on top of the snow and just running through the walls. 

Was definitely a big event down there.👍

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