Jump to content
The Weather Forums

Fall/Winter 2021/22 Predictions and Discussion


Recommended Posts

On 10/7/2021 at 9:44 PM, snow_wizard said:

I would probably choose 1970-71 over 1971-72 even though 71-72 was the better winter here by quite a margin.  Mostly because of the likelihood of a somewhat negative QBO.  While a 1970-71 type winter would be great for you at the lower elevations it could have a strong N to S temperature gradient.  I think they are both ok analogs due to 1971-72 being a second year Nina.

70-71 was definitely great up here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/2/2021 at 6:24 PM, Phil said:

Still preliminary. Slightly higher confidence overall but still very early in the game. * = low confidence.

Nov: Warm/Average*

Dec: Warm/Dry.

Jan: (Warm —> Cold)*/Average

Feb: Cold/Wet*

Mar: Average*/Wet*

Update: Okay, below is my “official” prediction.

Made some timing changes. Good chance I’m wrong, but what the hell, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

FYI: Based on upper level conditions. Doesn’t factor in inversions, convergence zones, etc. I’m not good at predicting that stuff.

Nov: Warm/dry overall. Drier south, wetter north (vs climo). Period of split flow mid/late month? Probably a blocky month but don’t think it’ll favor the PNW.

Dec: Slight warm lean. Dry to start, turns wet mid/late month? Timing might be off but suspect there’ll be a dry—>wet/stormy transition in there somewhere. Arctic air may build in western Canada later in the month, but (probably) remains bottled up. If it does make it south, I suspect there’ll be a tight N/S gradient. 

Jan: Slight cool lean, wetter than average. Suspect there’ll be a zonal period in there somewhere, perhaps analogous to 1998/99 or 2011/12, with an old school “January thaw” across most of the CONUS while PNW region is cool and stormy. Upstream/NPAC blocking is questionable..absent a compromised vortex I’d favor -WPO/-PNA/+EPO. Under a high(er) amplification scenario, an Arctic outbreak is possible.

Feb: Cooler than average, especially early in the month. Uncertain about precipitation, but would be surprised if it strayed too far from normal in either direction. Analogs are quite variable this month, which suggests any disruption to the PV/stratosphere and/or a significant MJO transit could prove decisive.

Mar: Lol. I don’t know. Let’s go with cold and anomalously wet and revisit it later.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Update: Okay, below is my “official” prediction.

Made some timing changes. Good chance I’m wrong, but what the hell, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

FYI: Based on upper level conditions. Doesn’t factor in inversions, convergence zones, etc. I’m not good at predicting that stuff.

Nov: Warm/dry overall. Drier south, wetter north (vs climo). Period of split flow mid/late month? Probably a blocky month but don’t think it’ll favor the PNW.

Dec: Slight warm lean. Dry to start, turns wet mid/late month? Timing might be off but suspect there’ll be a dry—>wet/stormy transition in there somewhere. Arctic air may build in western Canada later in the month, but (probably) remains bottled up. If it does make it south, I suspect there’ll be a tight N/S gradient. 

Jan: Slight cool lean, wetter than average. Suspect there’ll be a zonal period in there somewhere, perhaps analogous to 1998/99 or 2011/12, with an old school “January thaw” across most of the CONUS while PNW region is cool and stormy. Upstream/NPAC blocking is questionable..absent a compromised vortex I’d favor -WPO/-PNA/+EPO. Under a high(er) amplification scenario, an Arctic outbreak is possible.

Feb: Cooler than average, especially early in the month. Uncertain about precipitation, but would be surprised if it strayed too far from normal in either direction. Analogs are quite variable this month, which suggests any disruption to the PV/stratosphere and/or a significant MJO transit could prove decisive.

Mar: Lol. I don’t know. Let’s go with cold and anomalously wet and revisit it later.

In summary, if I’m correct (I wouldn’t bet on it, lol) then the time period to watch this winter in the PNW is late January and the first half of February.

Also seems to be some potential in the pattern around the holidays (late Dec/early Jan) but that might be more of a long shot/hail mary situation where everything has to align perfectly.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My Western OR/WA Fall-Early Spring Prediction.

Nov Warm/Wet.

Dec Average/Average maybe a mid-late cold snap, storm.

Jan Mild/Somewhat wet esp Northern OR-Northbound.

Feb Chilly/Dry maybe some snow.

Mar Mild/Wet.

 

Woolly Worm Forecast

Nov Active

Dec Calmer

Jan Calmer

Feb Active

Mar Active

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

february13.thumb.jpg.dc19d8977d9924524eb0f3ed16e0e8f4.jpg

Alright I'll give this a shot, laying it all on the table here:

Oct: +37.5°. +9,000" of precip give or take. Chilly and wet for the next few days, turning to a more mild/dry, then mild wet regime. We do not speak of October the twenty-third, the year of our lord two thousand and twenty-one. Cool and damp to finish the month.

Nov: +0.5° to +1.5°. Within 1.00"/20% of average precip. Snow unlikely, if so less than 1". //// Mid-month bore. Throw in a very, very amplified ridge somewhere in that period, highs in the upper 60s-mid 70s for a day or two. Sandwiched between periods of active SW flow. Nothing really to go by in terms of cold or fake cold. IF you want to go down to brass tax, screw it... very impressive PSCZ event at the end of the month... make it the 29th... at 3pm.... Several lightning strikes and spits of hilltop snow from Everett to DT Seattle. Total wishcast. Anyways... :rolleyes:

Dec: -1° to -3°. Within 0.50"/15% of average precip. 1-5" of snow. //// Mild and wet start, windstorm around the 7th to the 9th, and a fairly big one at that. Mild and dry mid-month before rapidly turning arctic around the 20th. Lasts three days, fairly dry and quick blast, highs in the mid 20s to low 30s and fairly cloudy. Lows in the teens and low 20s. Some rando in rural buckersknawtch or wherehaveyou gets inundated by the inception of the upcoming glacial minimum; 39" of snow in 12 hours. Cool and wet to finish the month with spits of onshore glory in the foothills and PSCZ region. Hadley cell gets quite contracted for a good period, sending cold onshore flow into NorCal, perhaps south. Sierras walloped.

Jan: -2° to -7° 🛋️. +1.00 to + 3.00" of precip, or around +33% of normal. 5-10"+ snow. 👀 //// Man, I've got a good feeling about this one. Or maybe those candies were something...else..... Either way, it's probably going to be a chilly one. Yeah, I know, crucify me for going all basic-b**** Niña climo up in here, but look at the last eight weeks and give me a reason why I should be wrong. I thing going -ENSO climo is quite appropriate given the seasonal progression so far. Now I might end up looking like an idiot here, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we'll get a massive mid-late month Arctic blast. Multiple days in the twenties and 5-10"+ of snow. You can hate on me now, and you can laugh at me later, but if, or when, we get the January to remember come 2022, I'll be the prophet I always wanted to be. Turning mild and wet to finish the month. Great snowfall month for the mountains. More precip down in Cali, too.

Feb: 0° to +2°. 0.00" to -0.50" of precip, or around -15% of normal. Snow unlikely. //// Overall a mild and dry-ish month. Seasonal troughs and ridges with an emphasis on ridging, maybe a decent spell of sunny 60°-or-so days around the 10th. Turning troughier and cooler in the final stretch of the month, but not cool or wet enough to totally offset the mild beginning. Overall a very forgettable February, in contrast to the last decade or so.

Mar: -1° to -3°. +2.00" to +3.00" of precip, or around +50% of normal, maybe more. Snow unlikely, maybe less than an inch. //// Going full on zonal Niña here, with maybe more of a N/S gradient to it. North sound gets a good snap early month, but no high latitude blocking to bring it south. Lots and lots of snow where it can fall, and very wet elsewhere. Mountains are graced with the finest of powders, some stations break monthly records. One mild ridge around the 20th immediately met with an army of systems from GOA. Spits of PSCZ snow, what else is new. Slow start to spring.

Apr: Within 1° of average. Within 20% of average precip. Snowfall in any capacity unlikely, especially after the 10th. //// Kind of a see-saw balanced month here, with cool and wet conditions during the first half giving way to mild and dry conditions in the second. When tallying the numbers it'll probably come in close to average. Spring comes like a month late, but when it does arrive, it'll arrive. Mostly sunny and dry with highs in the 60s and 70s to close the month, maybe some passing showers. Beautiful weather to shut off the cold season.

Overall: -1° to -2°. +20% precip, mild but noticeable N/S gradient in precip anomalies, though I do think all should get more precip than usual. Snowfall above normal in most places, pretty typical for La Niña, but I do think most areas will get some high quality "arctic blast" snow at some point or another during the winter. Of course it goes without saying that there will be marginal zonal slop from time to time. I'm optimistic about this winter and I think you should be too, equatorial stratospheric zonal wind direction be damned.

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
  • Rain 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 36.5"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.5"; March 15th, 2021

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 14F; November 24th, 2010

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/14/2021 at 1:09 PM, Phil said:

Update: Okay, below is my “official” prediction.

Made some timing changes. Good chance I’m wrong, but what the hell, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.

FYI: Based on upper level conditions. Doesn’t factor in inversions, convergence zones, etc. I’m not good at predicting that stuff.

Nov: Warm/dry overall. Drier south, wetter north (vs climo). Period of split flow mid/late month? Probably a blocky month but don’t think it’ll favor the PNW.

Dec: Slight warm lean. Dry to start, turns wet mid/late month? Timing might be off but suspect there’ll be a dry—>wet/stormy transition in there somewhere. Arctic air may build in western Canada later in the month, but (probably) remains bottled up. If it does make it south, I suspect there’ll be a tight N/S gradient. 

Jan: Slight cool lean, wetter than average. Suspect there’ll be a zonal period in there somewhere, perhaps analogous to 1998/99 or 2011/12, with an old school “January thaw” across most of the CONUS while PNW region is cool and stormy. Upstream/NPAC blocking is questionable..absent a compromised vortex I’d favor -WPO/-PNA/+EPO. Under a high(er) amplification scenario, an Arctic outbreak is possible.

Feb: Cooler than average, especially early in the month. Uncertain about precipitation, but would be surprised if it strayed too far from normal in either direction. Analogs are quite variable this month, which suggests any disruption to the PV/stratosphere and/or a significant MJO transit could prove decisive.

Mar: Lol. I don’t know. Let’s go with cold and anomalously wet and revisit it later.

So January would be our best chance for snow?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Okay all. Here comes the forecast you have all been waiting for. The man who essentially NAILED the past two winters, is back to make it rain (OR SNOW) again. Buckle up. It is going to be a fun ride. 

November: It's hard not to read the tea leaves and go mild and dryish with this month. I don't think it s a lock, but I think we have an above average chance at warmer than normal temps and we will likely see at least a 7-10 period where ridging dominates. The beginning and end of the month will probably be the wettest. We get into inversion season in November, so temps can be tricky, but I feel at least some of the ridging will be the kind of dirty ridging that brings mild southerly flow in November. 

Temps: Regionally likely above average, warmer further south. Could see some WV inversions towards Thanksgiving. Warmest part of the month will probably be 10-20th. Could be a very warm month south of Eugene. Best chance for cold anomalies later in the month. MAYBE early, though not a big chance. 

Precip: Generally below average, though not necessarily a dry month. First week could be fairly wet, last week could trend wetter too. Extreme northern parts of the PNW could be fairly wet overall. 

Snow: Very low chances for lowland snow. Small chance north of Seattle late in the month, very unlikely south of Portland. Cascade snowfall likely below average. 

December: I expect things to pick up and we will likely see our coolest December since 2017. 

Temps: Regionally average to slightly below average. Best chance for below average temperatures in NE Washington. Best chance of above normal temps across southern Oregon (SW and SE Oregon). Better than average chance of a cold, but fairly short (2-3) Willamette Valley inversion mid-month. Something like this... https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2006&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0... 

Precip: Overall a fairly wet and active month. Above average precip for most of the region. Quite a bit of onshore flow and full latitude troughing. Likely less of a N/S precip gradient than November. 

Snow: About average lowland snow chances for the month of December. Likely 1-2 minor lowland snow events. Not getting a December 08' feel, but a significant regional event is possible, though not likely. Would be surprised if no sticking snow north of Seattle, or if the Willamette Valley was entirely shut out. Should be a good month for the Cascades. I bet Spokane does well. 

January: Overall I am most bullish on January. I think the long term models are most bullish on December/March, but my sense is January is our best bet. 

Temps: Generally below average. We could have a torching period which skews things a little, but overall I would say it will easily be the coldest January regionally since 2017, and some places could see their coldest January since 1993. Best chances for arctic air around the New Year and then later in the month. Better than 50% of a regional arctic outbreak. At some point I think we see an AR which will bring a thaw and several day torch to parts of Central and Eastern Oregon. 

Precip: Generally above average, though closer to average than December. At some point we could see some jet suppression, best chance for below normal precip is probably north of Seattle. 

Snow: At least one significant snow event West of the Cascades that is fairly widespread. Most areas will see accumulating snow. Cascade snow near normal. I expect NE Washington (Spokane) to do well once again. 

February: February has been red hot over the past five years, does lightning strike again? Salem has been colder in February than January the past 4 years, that will not happen again, but it will be a decent month. 

Temps: Average to slightly below. If we get a cold snap in late January it could linger into early February. Otherwise a cool, but not cold month, maybe turning colder again late in the month. 

Precip: Above average. 

Snow: Generally low snow levels, probably something similar to February 2017 or 2009. A lot of places could see accumulating snow at some point, but any big snows will likely be further north, elevation dependent, or narrowly focused. Cascade snowfall should be above average. 

March: Could be a very chilly month. 

Temps: Below average, especially the first half of the month. 

Precip: Near average, drier further north, likely above average in Oregon. 

Snow: Widespread lowland snow unlikely. Possibly significant foothill and Cascade snow. Best lowland snow chances north interior of Washington, and C-zone. 

Recap: Overall I expect a cooler and wetter than normal winter after a fairly mundane November. It has the potential to be one of the most active winters in recent memory. December could be very stormy. We will flirt with lowland snow every month December-March with January holding big potential. Most of us will see snow in the air before Christmas. November has the best chance for above normal temps. January and March have the best potential to be cold/cool. Overall coolest winter since 2016-17, wettest winter since at least 16-17, potentially 11-12'. Cascade snow pack will be above normal. 

Snow predictions: 

Seattle: 14"

PDX: 9"

SLE: 12"

EUG: 8"

"My Location:" 60-70"

TWL will see sub-freezing high. 

  • Like 6
  • Excited 1
  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Okay all. Here comes the forecast you have all been waiting for. The man who essentially NAILED the past two winters, is back to make it rain (OR SNOW) again. Buckle up. It is going to be a fun ride. 

November: It's hard not to read the tea leaves and go mild and dryish with this month. I don't think it s a lock, but I think we have an above average chance at warmer than normal temps and we will likely see at least a 7-10 period where ridging dominates. The beginning and end of the month will probably be the wettest. We get into inversion season in November, so temps can be tricky, but I feel at least some of the ridging will be the kind of dirty ridging that brings mild southerly flow in November. 

Temps: Regionally likely above average, warmer further south. Could see some WV inversions towards Thanksgiving. Warmest part of the month will probably be 10-20th. Could be a very warm month south of Eugene. Best chance for cold anomalies later in the month. MAYBE early, though not a big chance. 

Precip: Generally below average, though not necessarily a dry month. First week could be fairly wet, last week could trend wetter too. Extreme northern parts of the PNW could be fairly wet overall. 

Snow: Very low chances for lowland snow. Small chance north of Seattle late in the month, very unlikely south of Portland. Cascade snowfall likely below average. 

December: I expect things to pick up and we will likely see our coolest December since 2017. 

Temps: Regionally average to slightly below average. Best chance for below average temperatures in NE Washington. Best chance of above normal temps across southern Oregon (SW and SE Oregon). Better than average chance of a cold, but fairly short (2-3) Willamette Valley inversion mid-month. Something like this... https://climate.usu.edu/mapServer/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USW00024232&year=2006&month=12&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0... 

Precip: Overall a fairly wet and active month. Above average precip for most of the region. Quite a bit of onshore flow and full latitude troughing. Likely less of a N/S precip gradient than November. 

Snow: About average lowland snow chances for the month of December. Likely 1-2 minor lowland snow events. Not getting a December 08' feel, but a significant regional event is possible, though not likely. Would be surprised if no sticking snow north of Seattle, or if the Willamette Valley was entirely shut out. Should be a good month for the Cascades. I bet Spokane does well. 

January: Overall I am most bullish on January. I think the long term models are most bullish on December/March, but my sense is January is our best bet. 

Temps: Generally below average. We could have a torching period which skews things a little, but overall I would say it will easily be the coldest January regionally since 2017, and some places could see their coldest January since 1993. Best chances for arctic air around the New Year and then later in the month. Better than 50% of a regional arctic outbreak. At some point I think we see an AR which will bring a thaw and several day torch to parts of Central and Eastern Oregon. 

Precip: Generally above average, though closer to average than December. At some point we could see some jet suppression, best chance for below normal precip is probably north of Seattle. 

Snow: At least one significant snow event West of the Cascades that is fairly widespread. Most areas will see accumulating snow. Cascade snow near normal. I expect NE Washington (Spokane) to do well once again. 

February: February has been red hot over the past five years, does lightning strike again? Salem has been colder in February than January the past 4 years, that will not happen again, but it will be a decent month. 

Temps: Average to slightly below. If we get a cold snap in late January it could linger into early February. Otherwise a cool, but not cold month, maybe turning colder again late in the month. 

Precip: Above average. 

Snow: Generally low snow levels, probably something similar to February 2017 or 2009. A lot of places could see accumulating snow at some point, but any big snows will likely be further north, elevation dependent, or narrowly focused. Cascade snowfall should be above average. 

March: Could be a very chilly month. 

Temps: Below average, especially the first half of the month. 

Precip: Near average, drier further north, likely above average in Oregon. 

Snow: Widespread lowland snow unlikely. Possibly significant foothill and Cascade snow. Best lowland snow chances north interior of Washington, and C-zone. 

Recap: Overall I expect a cooler and wetter than normal winter after a fairly mundane November. It has the potential to be one of the most active winters in recent memory. December could be very stormy. We will flirt with lowland snow every month December-March with January holding big potential. Most of us will see snow in the air before Christmas. November has the best chance for above normal temps. January and March have the best potential to be cold/cool. Overall coolest winter since 2016-17, wettest winter since at least 16-17, potentially 11-12'. Cascade snow pack will be above normal. 

Snow predictions: 

Seattle: 14"

PDX: 9"

SLE: 12"

EUG: 8"

"My Location:" 60-70"

TWL will see sub-freezing high. 

Great writeup!! Couple things from my weird mind lol.

Nice pandering to TWL 🤣🤣

Nobody felt 2008 coming either, so something like that is still in play. 

11/20/2021, the greatness will begin. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Great writeup!! Couple things from my weird mind lol.

Nice pandering to TWL 🤣🤣

Nobody felt 2008 coming either, so something like that is still in play. 

11/20/2021, the greatness will begin. 

There is really good potential this year, doesn't mean we will realize it, but I think the potential is in play! 

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

November: Goodies

December: Goodies

January: Goodies

February: Goodies

March: Normal

+8000 parlay

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm seeing either a regional winner or regional bust. Don't think this will be a year with very uneven results.

In our climate a major bust is always possible. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's funny because we are incredibly overdue for a major regional arctic airmass. 2013-14 really still is the last one to date.

But we're almost equally overdue for a regional P.O.S. The 2014-16 Nino still represents the last legitimate regional dud, since the January 2020 event was a little too nice north of Seattle.

Maybe we'll just stay in this sort of in-between stage for awhile longer, where decent events happen every winter but major airmasses are a thing of the past.

  • Snow 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BLI snowman said:

It's funny because we are incredibly overdue for a major regional arctic airmass. 2013-14 really still is the last one to date.

But we're almost equally overdue for a regional P.O.S. The 2014-16 Nino still represents the last legitimate regional dud, since the January 2020 event was a little too nice north of Seattle.

Maybe we'll just stay in this sort of in-between stage for awhile longer, where decent events happen every winter but major airmasses are a thing of the past.

On the other hand the past two winters were pretty much duds south of PDX. 2019-20 was definitely a dud for PDX too. 

Outside of 3 days in February, last winter was pretty blah too. That event happened, so it wasn't a dud, but I think we will at the very least see a much more active winter, though that does not always translate to lowland snow. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BLI snowman said:

It's funny because we are incredibly overdue for a major regional arctic airmass. 2013-14 really still is the last one to date.

But we're almost equally overdue for a regional P.O.S. The 2014-16 Nino still represents the last legitimate regional dud, since the January 2020 event was a little too nice north of Seattle.

Maybe we'll just stay in this sort of in-between stage for awhile longer, where decent events happen every winter but major airmasses are a thing of the past.

2016-17 seems like it is something of the upper limits of what our climate is capable of throughout an entire winter. 

February 2019 gives me some pause, I wonder what that month would have looked like had those patterns occurred in January, especially that late February offshore flow, it would have definitely had more bite a month earlier. 

  • Like 1
  • Snow 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

2016-17 seems like it is something of the upper limits of what our climate is capable of throughout an entire winter. 

February 2019 gives me some pause, I wonder what that month would have looked like had those patterns occurred in January, especially that late February offshore flow, it would have definitely had more bite a month earlier. 

Feb 2019 in January would have been Jan 1969-lite. Probably at least 70% of Jan 1969's snowfall in many places.

  • Like 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Feb 2019 in January would have been Jan 1969-lite. Probably at least 70% of Jan 1969's snowfall in many places.

Agreed.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

On the other hand the past two winters were pretty much duds south of PDX. 2019-20 was definitely a dud for PDX too. 

Outside of 3 days in February, last winter was pretty blah too. That event happened, so it wasn't a dud, but I think we will at the very least see a much more active winter, though that does not always translate to lowland snow. 

Right, we could have easily see a colder, more active season and not see anything nearly as impressive as February's winter storm. Last winter was basically a 1997-98 redux for the region, a fluky one and done.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Feb 2019 in January would have been Jan 1969-lite. Probably at least 70% of Jan 1969's snowfall in many places.

I'm not sure the early February 2019 stuff would have transpired much differently a few weeks earlier.

The post February 15 stuff would have been significantly colder, but that stretch was also very dry for most of the northern part of region so if anything the jet suppression would have been even more noteworthy with colder air. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...
On 8/30/2021 at 10:26 PM, Cloud said:

Sept - Dry/average

Oct - Wet/average

Nov - Wet/warm

Dec - dry/cold

Jan - wet/cold

Feb - wet/average 

Checking in to see actual vs. predicted for my predictions.

Sept: slightly below normal/wet

Oct: below normal/wet

missed the mark for a dry Sept prediction. I’m okay with how Oct played out.

so far so good for Nov. we’ll see by end of month.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...