Tom Posted August 28, 2021 Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 Who's ready for Autumn??? What has been one of the more hot and humid summers in recent memory, I think its fair to say that the majority of us on here are ready for some cooler wx. The change of seasons will be upon us by Labor Day weekend for primarily the northern half of the Sub as it stands now. The southern tier will have to wait a bit longer but you'll get your relief by Week 2-3 based on the data I'm seeing. Let's dive into the finer details and discuss... The pattern that keeps on giving will seemingly continue for the Northwoods and Upper MW regions. This is one of the more notable reversals in the overall pattern we have seen since late May I believe. 0z EPS sniffing out not 1 but 2 significant rounds of precip for the north and one of them is poised to be rather significant as it will incorporate the remnants of a tropical system over Labor Day weekend. If the models are correct, and I believe they are, the amount of blocking showing up along the W NAMER coast and the high lat's will produce a pattern where I could see numerous Autumnal CF's swinging through the Sub igniting storms and precip galore. If you believe the CFSv2, it's advertising abundant moisture for the CONUS. When will the seasons 1st Frosts arrive?? I think it is possible that post 8th someone over the N GL's region and Northwoods could see patchy frost. Let's see what this month has in store as I'm sure it'll be quite interesting. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted August 28, 2021 Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 Count me in for being ready for cooler weather and drier air. Sept can be exciting as we move back into severe weather season and peak hurricane season. Mid month should bring a taste of both as a fall like cold front pushes through the sub and another hurricane develops around the Yucatan and targets Louisiana coast again. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 17 minutes ago, Clinton said: Count me in for being ready for cooler weather and drier air. Sept can be exciting as we move back into severe weather season and peak hurricane season. Mid month should bring a taste of both as a fall like cold front pushes through the sub and another hurricane develops around the Yucatan and targets Louisiana coast again. Totally agree with you that we ain’t done with US hits and probably a pretty strong CF mid month. I think it’s gonna get a bit wild! 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted August 28, 2021 Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 Let's get this party rolling....normally see a few flakes by end of Sept early Oct! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 28, 2021 Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 Count me in....let's rock 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted August 28, 2021 Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 Huskers vs. Illinois at Champaign. Radio announcers say it is warm and humid. Which team is in better shape and can stand the heat usually wins these early games. Ready for the Big 10 opener. Yard is mowed so it’s an afternoon and evening of watching football . Yes. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 28, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 Dreaming of LOW DP's??? 12z GFS right on que post 8th with what could be a couple significant CF's through mid month...this is just the 1st one followed by a stronger one towards the end of run. While just one run, it fits the LRC and what I'm envisioning. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted August 28, 2021 Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 Bring on the 45 degree dew points! I have a landscaping business and it was a real struggle getting through this past week. Current heat (misery) index is 104 as I glance at my weather station. Dew point at 78! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted August 28, 2021 Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 This is not what anybody in Louisiana wanted to see at the end of the 12z GFS but it is exactly what the pattern has in store. Louisiana is in for a rough road and will need a lot of help. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 28, 2021 Report Share Posted August 28, 2021 Looks really bad. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 29, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 29, 2021 The good ol' Hudson Bay Block is trending stronger in the medium range which is "pressing" the front over the big holiday weekend farther south now. Boy, these daytime high temps for the central Plains/MW/Upper MW look super. Upper 60's for the Northwoods next Sunday??? #Fall #BonfireWx 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted August 29, 2021 Report Share Posted August 29, 2021 2 hours ago, Tom said: The good ol' Hudson Bay Block is trending stronger in the medium range which is "pressing" the front over the big holiday weekend farther south now. Boy, these daytime high temps for the central Plains/MW/Upper MW look super. Upper 60's for the Northwoods next Sunday??? #Fall #BonfireWx Hopefully accompanied by much lower dews. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 29, 2021 Report Share Posted August 29, 2021 My extended has highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s thru the 12th. I'm happy with that. Maybe we are finally out of the extreme heat/humidity. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 29, 2021 Report Share Posted August 29, 2021 Ida’s going to hit the beach in about an hour just west of NOLA as a Cat 5 ( I’m hearing Cat 4 too but it’s on the line) Pressure 933mb wave height 14-15’ Wind is 150 mph, gusts to 185 mph Her strengthening should be no surprise as the Gulf waters are so warm. 87-88*. They’re talking echoes of Katrina and hopefully all the lessons learned will assist in moderating this storm. The pumps and wall were improved upon but nothing can stop the amount of rain or wind damage. Hoping many evac’d. Currently in the DFW area we have wind from the NE. Very unusual. We usually get this with hurricanes east of us. It’s cloudy with a few scattered showers. Not expecting anything more from Ida. Currently 81* 95* mañana. Our break is over. Thought I’d add that Ida ties with Laura for the 5th in mph speed at landfall with 150 mph a Cat 4. An unnamed 1935 storm is 1st at at 185 mph.! 2 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted August 29, 2021 Report Share Posted August 29, 2021 Ida has her lady-like side as she’s spinning off some needed isolated rain in North Tx. Loads of tropical moisture out there. 85* dp 72 Come on Fall! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2021 What a way to open up the month of met Autumn. The models are all trending towards a stout blocking pattern, thus creating a much cooler looking Labor Day weekend for a lot of you back east. If the Euro (who's been the lead model) and GFS are right, most members up north will have a string of 60's in their grids for later next week! #AutumnIsComing The 0z Euro is suggesting another round of heavy precip for the Northwoods members of MN/ND....remnants of tropical storm Nora in the E PAC should aid in the moisture dept... @FAR_Weather, looking good for you bud! 0z EPS temp pattern for the opening 11 days of Septembrrrrr....Hot in S Plains, but this will reverse course the following week. Heads up @Andie @OKwx2k4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 31, 2021 Author Report Share Posted August 31, 2021 On this last day of August, the last run from the CFSv2 for Sept is suggesting a "horseshoe" block over N.A....one thing about this pattern that is intriguing to me is the trough over the SW and extends into the majority of the eastern CONUS. This is a classic -EPO signal and one that would favor a wet pattern next month in those same regions. Not surprisingly, the model is showing a robust Monsoon continuing and extending into the central CONUS. If this pans out, I could really see the new LRC for '21-'22 setting up in Oct with very active wx. Just some preliminary thoughts. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 The GFS is trending wetter for the first half of the holiday weekend. Not a surprise we seem to always have 1 day with rain for Labor Day weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 Welcome to the 1st day of met Autumn! I was awoken to the sound of water falling off the tiled roof here in AZ as a line of showers/storms rolled on through late last night. Picked up about .37" of nice stratiform rainfall that soaks into the ground instead of running off into the washways. Current conditions are reminiscent of what we've dealt with last month 72F/70F...so yes, it is humid here as the monsoon continues. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 Made it to September. NWS Hastings has dropped highs from 4-7 degrees as stratus may hang tight much of the day. Now looking at high temps closer to 80. Tomorrow still looking like an all day rain with temps in the 70's. I've noticed that farmers are picking up irrigation pipe, those few that still use this instead of center pivots. Harvest coming in a few weeks for some. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 Wow, I just saw the local news here and a map showing that Fountain Hills received the most rainfall in the valley picking up an impressive 0.75" of rain! #Awesomeness 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 1, 2021 Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 12:30 PM and it is still overcast. Temp just hit 70. Forecast high is 85, so if the sun doesn't come out, we aren't going to make it, which is fine with me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 1, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 1, 2021 The idea of some strong troughs/storms rolling through the Sub post 8th are beginning to show up now in the modeling. The 12z EPS is suggesting the N Rockies get their 1st legit snows...#thinksnow 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 Today we saw 96 with a current humidity at 7pm at 46%. However,…tomorrow will be 100 and humidity at 67%. This will continue for several days thereafter. K? Somebody send us 1: rain and 2: freaking cooler temps.! I know our winter may freeze your eyelashes off but it’s HOT! Right now! 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 Down to 46 this am...high of 67 today....absolutely gorgeous! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 I’m waking up to another warm and humid morning (74F/68F) here in the desert. My location had one of the highest rainfall totals in the valley yesterday. Looking forward to some drier and more typical AZ wx this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 The trend keeps getting wetter here for Friday and Saturday. The 3km NAM has ridiculous rainfall amounts for mby. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 2, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 0z Euro suggesting widespread soaking rains across the central ag belt region of the U.S. @FAR_Weather may be the epicenter... Who's ready for a cool and crisp Labor Day morning for parts of the MW/GL's??? 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 The overnight low here was 52 (52.3) at this time it is clear and 53 (53.1) with a dew point of only 48 (47.8) There are some very cool reading in both the UP and northern lower Michigan with 40 at Cadillac and Grayling 37 at Marquette. Temperatures in the low to mid 40's were common away from the great lakes and I am sure some smaller locations got down into the low to mid 30's and would not be surprised that there was frost in some locations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 Already over an inch here. 2 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 Pouring rain here this morning. The tropical summer continues. Large complex of rain and storms continues to move up from Kansas. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 I have a big outdoor festival in Oklahoma this weekend so im hoping it stays dry there! Gorgeous morning here with 55 and clear/calm. Had the windows open all night. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 It has turned cloudy with a comfy 64°. Gives me fall vibes! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 2, 2021 Report Share Posted September 2, 2021 Quote .UPDATE... Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 2 2021 Rain continues across all but our far north central and northeastern counties, spreading slowly northeastward. NDAWN obs have over 2 inches in portions of Barnes, Cass, and Clay counties, with more light rain moving in. Tried to adjust QPF for current trends. Most of the stronger convective cells that have tried to move into the Devils Lake Basin from further west have weakened due to lack of instability, but some isolated thunder threat remains for at least some of the afternoon. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 3, 2021 Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 0.75” this morning. Now this new line of storms come through with the front. We are approaching 30” for the year. 25” is normal for the entire year. Wow. IMG_0225.MOV 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BMT Posted September 3, 2021 Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 0z Short term hi-res models seem to be trending wetter for my backyard. Hopefully that verifies. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 3, 2021 Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 2” in one hour. Street flooding ongoing. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 3, 2021 Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 Models are coming into agreement for a widespread heavy rain event for the KC area tomorrow night. Several times this year this type of setup has produced isolated 6 to 10 in amounts. 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted September 3, 2021 Report Share Posted September 3, 2021 Very heavy rain in SE Lincoln 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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