Jump to content

September 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

46 minutes ago, Andie said:

I’m seeing Texas temps begin to vary and roller coaster between 93 and 98 week to week in Sept.   

This is typical Texas seasonal change in September and very encouraging that we’ll have a more normal Fall.  

I still expect a polar vortex dive in late January or February like last year.  I’m preparing for it now.   We don’t trust Texas power grid yet.  the article I posted in Climate  recently may explain it better.  

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/changing-climate/study-warmer-arctic-led-to-killer-cold-in-texas-much-of-us/2733607/

Im going to apologize openly here for missing the last part of my summer prediction for you down there. Been hotter about 2wks longer than I anticipated for both of us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You did say it would swing though.  
so, it didn’t surprise me and you didn’t totally miss.   
Texas has been confounding Mets for decades!😉

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It has been very dry the last 25 days so we could use some rain. At this time there are some storms over northern Lake Michigan and part of the UP.  Here it is clear and a rather cool morning the overnight low here and officially at GRR was 53. At this time with the clear skies it is 55.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Front just blew through with clouds and gusty NW winds. Definite drop in humidity as well. Sort of getting that change of season vibe with the shorter days and temps a bit cooler. Some leaves have been falling, mostly due to dry weather, and some leaves are starting to color a bit. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Front just blew through with clouds and gusty NW winds. Definite drop in humidity as well. Sort of getting that change of season vibe with the shorter days and temps a bit cooler. Some leaves have been falling, mostly due to dry weather, and some leaves are starting to color a bit. 

According to my records on my weather station, except for one day on 6/20, this is the first day since 5/27 with strong, gusty winds out of the NW. We've had windy days since then, and days with winds out of the NW, but not a combo of the two of them after the passage of a cold front.

  • Like 2
  • Windy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sweet, sweet seasonal norms. A year ago today, we had a high of 54*F and lows were near the freezing mark.

Quote
This Afternoon
Sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a northwest wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Northwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 73. North northwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 82. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. South southwest wind around 9 mph becoming north northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 73. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. North wind 6 to 11 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. North wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Southeast wind around 7 mph.
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. South southeast wind 9 to 13 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

 

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've been on the road since early Sat morning as we took a trip up into northern Arizona.  Our first stop was Page, AZ where we visited multiple places that included Lake Powell and Horseshoe Bend.  It was pretty hot and dry with temps in the mid 90's so we focused on doing any hiking early in the morning on Sun, which was the day we went to Horseshoe Bend.  We spent most of Sat down by the lake and then later in the evening saw some scenic views.  You could say Page is a small town that is typically packed with tourists (mainly boaters) from all over the SW region of the U.S.  Tons of houseboats on that lake.  The water temp was 80F.  It was sad to see how low the water levels have gotten.

The most profound and exciting part of the trip was at the Grand Canyon North Rim.  It was quite the ride from Page south towards the North Rim.  We drove through vast, barren plateaus, to winding roads that lead along the towering cliffs of the Grand Canyon.  It's amazing to me how fast the landscape changes and temps drop once you get to the top of the Grand Canyon (8,800ft).  There is a profound difference compared to the south rim whereby the north rim is not only higher by 1,100 feet, but it also receives 15 feet of snow annually while the south only gets about 5 feet.  The north rim has a mature forest landscape filled with pine, evergreen and what looked like aspen trees.  I went wild mushroom picking and found a few big ones!  This was a trip I'll never forget.  If you ever have the chance, try out the north rim, you'll be impressed...plus, it's much less touristy, even through the lodge was booked solid you don't have all the international travelers that attend the south rim.

 

I'll post pics and vids a bit later and show some of the most amazing colors and scenery from my trip.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I've been on the road since early Sat morning as we took a trip up into northern Arizona.  Our first stop was Page, AZ where we visited multiple places that included Lake Powell and Horseshoe Bend.  It was pretty hot and dry with temps in the mid 90's so we focused on doing any hiking early in the morning on Sun, which was the day we went to Horseshoe Bend.  We spent most of Sat down by the lake and then later in the evening saw some scenic views.  You could say Page is a small town that is typically packed with tourists (mainly boaters) from all over the SW region of the U.S.  Tons of houseboats on that lake.  The water temp was 80F.  It was sad to see how low the water levels have gotten.

The most profound and exciting part of the trip was at the Grand Canyon North Rim.  It was quite the ride from Page south towards the North Rim.  We drove through vast, barren plateaus, to winding roads that lead along the towering cliffs of the Grand Canyon.  It's amazing to me how fast the landscape changes and temps drop once you get to the top of the Grand Canyon (8,500ft).  There is a profound difference compared to the south rim whereby the north rim is not only higher by 1,100 feet, but it also receives 15 feet of snow annually while the south only gets about 5 feet.  The north rim has a mature forest landscape filled with pine, evergreen and what looked like aspen trees.  I went wild mushroom picking and found a few big ones!  This was a trip I'll never forget.  If you ever have the chance, try out the north rim, you'll be impressed...plus, it's much less touristy, even through the lodge was booked solid you don't have all the international travelers that attend the south rim.

 

I'll post pics and vids a bit later and show some of the most amazing colors and scenery from my trip.

Tom.  My husband is from Tucson and we love to wander around Northern Az.  He’s tried to talk me into moving to Flagstaff but I can’t give up my Texas.  I told him I’d be glad to go on an extended vacation but my feet are planted in Texas up to my knees.  
I've been to the So rim but I very much want to go to the north rim.  

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Andie said:

Tom.  My husband is from Tucson and we love to wander around Northern Az.  He’s tried to talk me into moving to Flagstaff but I can’t give up my Texas.  I told him I’d be glad to go on an extended vacation but my feet are planted in Texas up to my knees.  
I've been to the So rim but I very much want to go to the north rim.  

I highly recommend visiting the north rim if you ever get the chance.  Hey, there's nothing wrong with living in Texas...unless, of course, you want a cooler climate and mountain living that Flagstaff provides.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, but even with mountain and cooler temps. You can’t beat our culture, people, everything we offer.  We’re just unique. 

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Alright, where shall I begin?  There were so many memorable moments and views on our trip that its hard to say which one was the best.  I'll start off by posting while at Horseshoe Bend.  The pictures don't do justice as I tried to capture the size and towering walls that were created by the Colorado River.  Quite a unique place to visit and one of the popular picturesque places in AZ that photographers use as their background.  In fact, there were a couple models doing some photo shoots while I was there.
 

Lake Powell was a very busy place to be as you can imagine on a busy holiday weekend.  It was packed with boaters cruising up and down the lake and the little resort town was buzzing with tourists.  Great to see how much business was generate for the local economy.  It was sad to see, however, how much the water level has dropped.  A staggering 145 ft to date since its highest point back in 1999.  The lake is only 33% full!  
 

On Sunday, we drove down to the North Rim of the Grand Canyon.  This was hands down the best part of the trip.  We saw so many epic views, wild animals, drank purified water from the natural water falls, saw Bison cross the street...it goes on and on.  The air was so fresh and pure from the smell of pine.  Hiking was a bit strenuous due to the thin air being over 1.5 miles high in elevation.  The highest point of the Grand Canyon is Imperial Point at an elevation of 8803 ft.  Outside temp was in the upper 70's during the day and somewhat chilly in the upper 40's just before sunrise.  The visibility was sorta obscured from Haze and on a clear day you can see over a 100 miles.    We stayed at the Grand Canyon Lodge Resort.  The last night we stayed at a cabin resort outside of the Grand Canyon Park located in the middle of a low lying meadow.  On Tuesday morning, we woke up to a temp in the mid 30's!  I couldn't believe how cold it was and had to put on the buttn warmers and flip the HEAT on inside the car.  We literally went from having the furnace on in the cabin, seat warmers turned on in the car around 7:00am...then by 8:00 or so, we had the A/C back on as we made the winding drive down back into the Paria Plateau adjacent to the towering Vermilion Cliffs (3,000ft vertical).  The cliffs were being lit by the perfect angle of the sun and the colorful reddish tint of the sandstone stood out.

All in all, a very satisfying trip up north and one I will forever remember.  I'll be honest, it almost felt like we were traveling up near Aspen, CO or somewhere in the Rockies.  I was very surprised to see so many evergreen and Pine since that is non existent in the south rim.  That was one of the biggest surprises I'd say from this road trip.

 

 

7255F137-0D06-412C-A21A-B687008C1FFD.jpeg

A01D7A7E-37C1-40AE-9421-6F5448F65CA8.jpeg

564B20F0-D701-4A00-A631-A722A4CBAAE2.jpeg

C04E08AD-F82C-4198-9CAB-63962F54E68D.jpeg

29872186-F773-405A-B744-53069B845B9E.jpeg

4BD74EBB-FFAE-4ED6-AA1E-299379866899.jpeg

403A9851-5831-4A6F-A226-DB5574EAD8A6.jpeg

A4FDB7E5-AEF4-424F-85B4-03251582E878.jpeg

0D54E10B-0046-4F79-B199-8605B098C8B4.jpeg

51A368A5-D792-4456-B945-1E8D694FC13C.jpeg

1AB1EFC8-A26B-4B2D-AEE1-AF123DFDF2B8.jpeg

C1A4E6E9-A13A-4427-A6E7-A2B6EB116C83.jpeg

0DA4FA7B-C616-4B90-BA76-77E869ED8C6B.jpeg

EE1D1799-245A-46D4-849B-7967955AC9E5.jpeg

D525956E-DD80-441C-B04E-7024B1F673D1.jpeg

407F44B3-A2F7-4BB7-ACAE-175C96B22D9D.jpeg

4D6DE1B9-3F46-4299-8BB8-60EB4A789153.jpeg

0CB07BEE-89D9-4E8D-B99D-74933B5B4F7A.jpeg

369FF924-7B2E-4978-8E69-CD6C68E999D7.jpeg

73C6E06B-C128-43A2-88C5-E59AA1BBBBBE.jpeg

DEF418FB-36D5-4672-9C16-368629E1B40B.jpeg

A0722BFA-4A5E-41BF-8A14-2A4D6A33A07C.jpeg

2C533CB1-712E-45AC-AC67-9B88729214CA.jpeg

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Now THAT’S a mushroom !!!!!😳

  • Like 1

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m anxious to hear the cooking stories! 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I meant to post these images the other day when I was watching the local news.  You will see the Monsoon season has treated the valley quite well.  In fact, my town of Fountain Hills takes the #1 spot.

FB31F37C-5A67-45F4-BA52-5BD5E2E3E3FA.jpeg

 

The mountains have done quite well…

9B7BCE97-D690-4AEF-97EE-6C6040AA6194.jpeg

 

Meanwhile, the valley is under a Excessive Heat Watch for tomorrow as temps soar into the upper 100’s!  It doesn’t look like any Monsoon moisture is heading my way any time soon. 

  • Like 2
  • Sun 1
  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Many locals were hoping the Heat would be a distant memory for the rest of the year, but nature is saying "not so fast".  The Heat is back for the next week before it pulls back a bit later next week.  Signs of a cooler trend late next week.  I was hoping that tropical storm Olaf would make it up into the SW this week but models backed off that idea a few days ago.

 

[Key Messages]

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is a great example of why I believe the LRC tends to loose its "umpf" towards the tail end of its yearly cycle, esp in the months of Aug/Sept.  I think @Clinton posted a map that suggested a mid month cool down and overall a cooler month of Sept.  Well, we are approaching the middle of the month and its going to be a blast furnace for the S MW/Plains states for an extended period.

1442249180_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates5-dAvgT2MAnomC(3).gif

 

 

  • Like 3
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a great few days of weather around here.  Of course that now changes.  Heat expected to build back in for the next 3 days.  Friday is forecasted at 95-100 with hazy skies from smoke.  Hopefully dews stay lower.  Tomorrow is our school's homecoming activities.  Going to be hot with the High centered right over Central Nebraska.  Looking like next week things come back to normal or slightly below. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Tom said:

Here is a great example of why I believe the LRC tends to loose its "umpf" towards the tail end of its yearly cycle, esp in the months of Aug/Sept.  I think @Clinton posted a map that suggested a mid month cool down and overall a cooler month of Sept.  Well, we are approaching the middle of the month and its going to be a blast furnace for the S MW/Plains states for an extended period.

1442249180_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates5-dAvgT2MAnomC(3).gif

 

 

No doubt it kinda washes out a little bit but we have a little battle between the Euro and GFS as far as temps come the middle of next week.  The GFS keeps temps at or below average for most of us while the Euro heats it back up.  I think and hope the wetter cooler GFS will win out.

gfs_T2m_us_27.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

No doubt it kinda washes out a little bit but we have a little battle between the Euro and GFS as far as temps come the middle of next week.  The GFS keeps temps at or below average for most of us while the Euro heats it back up.  I think and hope the wetter cooler GFS will win out.

gfs_T2m_us_27.png

i agree that the LRC begins to lose its characteristics around the end of August. i think currently the LRC still has about 80% of this years pattern, by the end of the month its down to like 50% and it begins its "transition phase" into the new LRC pattern 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

I hope so too.  But the GFS seems to enjoy advertising cool downs several days out, only to keep pushing them back.  Seems like the GFS always has a cool down 7-10 days out.  Hopefully it'll be right this time.  

 

 

39 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

i agree that the LRC begins to lose its characteristics around the end of August. i think currently the LRC still has about 80% of this years pattern, by the end of the month its down to like 50% and it begins its "transition phase" into the new LRC pattern 

Hope the GFS gets it right this time.  I'm ready for a new pattern and hopefully one that treats KC better in the snow department.  We are less than 1 month away!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

50.4 this morning on my weather station. Coldest low since June 2nd.

Might hit 100 this Saturday, which would be something for mid September!

I'm seeing some early talk of winter forecasts from a couple of local mets, and they are referencing years where we were pretty dry for snowfall amounts, like less than 20" total.

Kinda expected given the 50" we had last winter.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well I have to admit when I'm wrong @Tom was correct as usual. Looks like we will be waiting until the 21 before we end the heat. Could this be a longer cycle developing or just Sept being more of a wild card?  It's going to be a hot weekend for football, 92 is the forecasted temp at kick-off for the Chiefs on Sunday.

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This Monsoon season has literally obliterated most of the states exceptional/extreme drought conditions.  I'm thrilled to see such a massive turnaround across this state.

Here is the drought map from June 8th...

1.png

 

Sept 7th...

2.png

 

This is just a gut feeling, but as I said way back in Spring, if this Monsoon season is any indication of the pattern that lies ahead, I could very well see storms digging into the SW this Autumn/Winter.   Just a feeling.

For reference, here's a link where you can compare drought maps from various weeks...

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Smoke has really affected the temps.  Yesterday the highs were 5 degrees lower than forecasted and it was wonderful in the low 80's.  Today was supposed to be 95, but now temps are being lowered to the upper 80's.  Saturday looks like less smoke and tanking dews.  Potential record highs on Saturday in the upper 90's to low 100's.  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...