Minny_Weather Posted September 13, 2021 Report Share Posted September 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said: Looks like the rain has started there. It's about to. The intensity has died down which kinda sucks. But it hit areas in a worse drought harder so I'm fine with that. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted September 13, 2021 Report Share Posted September 13, 2021 Well, crap!! The rain chances are dwindling for KC tomorrow evening, maybe a cooler day Wednesday, but right back into the oven Thursday through Tuesday with no rain chances. Maybe some stronger cold fronts later next week but the GFS has it brief and warming right back up....not much precip. in the next 16 days. I think Tom posted a map about 3 weeks ago showing a very warm fall. Still seeing that Tom? Never had a doubt in that Chiefs game...lol Cleveland is going to be there in January. Good football team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted September 14, 2021 Report Share Posted September 14, 2021 On 8/28/2021 at 3:58 PM, Clinton said: This is not what anybody in Louisiana wanted to see at the end of the 12z GFS but it is exactly what the pattern has in store. Louisiana is in for a rough road and will need a lot of help. Wow, the GFS really nailed this over two weeks out! 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 14, 2021 Report Share Posted September 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, earthandturf said: Wow, the GFS really nailed this over two weeks out! Quite an amazing job the GFS did with this system. I posted this map then because it lined up with the LRC, which is very useful predicting large weather events. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 14, 2021 Report Share Posted September 14, 2021 Rain chances tonight don't look good for the KC area. The warm dry weather looks to continue for another week. On the plus side I won't have to mow again this weekend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2021 I'm getting a bit more excited about the storm system showing up on Autumnal Equinox. The battle of the seasons will be in full blown display across the center of the nation. This could be turning into quite the system. Needless to say, I think many of you will be dusting off those colder wx clothing from the closet! 0z Euro showing the dividing line between the two seasons as we welcome in Autumn... Brrrr....Frosty nights??? The pattern keeps on giving for those up north as multiple systems continue to dump much welcomed precip... Now, here is where things could get interesting for our members way up north across the Northwoods of MN. I remember talking about the chance that this year may have the shortest time between "last flake and 1st flake". Didn't you guys get some snow back in very late May? I don't remember exactly but I do remember talking about it. Anyway, while on the topic of snow, both the EPS/GEFS are sniffing something out for ya'll up there. Who's ready for tracking autumn storms??? I got this feeling there will be some powerhouse systems come October. I have this vision of seeing possible Octo-bombs, esp with the big blocking signal showing up near Greenland and off the W/SW U.S. coast next month. 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 14, 2021 Report Share Posted September 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, Tom said: Who's ready for tracking autumn storms??? I got this feeling there will be some powerhouse systems come October. I have this vision of seeing possible Octo-bombs, esp with the big blocking signal showing up near Greenland and off the W/SW U.S. coast next month. I want nothing more than to replicate the October storm that dumped 2' in parts of ND in 2019. Seems like October snow is more supported all throughout the plains with the changing climate. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 14, 2021 Report Share Posted September 14, 2021 Love it, Tom! As for currently, the boundary has sagged south and it should be much cooler and drier today and tomorrow. Got some nice stratus moving in with the CAA. Think fall! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 14, 2021 Report Share Posted September 14, 2021 My extended now has upper 60s for highs late next week 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 14, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 14, 2021 The JMA seasonal came in yesterday and I'll post some maps either later today or tomorrow. Some good blocking showing up and an interesting flip during the month of Nov. Our 1st glimpse at met Winter is teasing me with a bonafide Fast start to Winter. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 14, 2021 Report Share Posted September 14, 2021 I'm ready for fall. Lets get some! This summer is too darn long! Glad to see the cold front! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 GFS and Euro are both hinting at potential wintry mischief to my west and north (100 miles in each direction) next week. One of them even gives the McGregor, ND area 6". I'll let you guess which model that is. 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: GFS and Euro are both hinting at potential wintry mischief to my west and north (100 miles in each direction) next week. One of them even gives the McGregor, ND area 6". I'll let you guess which model that is. We love the Canadian 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 15, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 If the 0z Euro is right, nature is wasting no time to usher in Autumnal air on the day of the Autumnal Equinox. It will certainly look and feel like it across the Upper MW and Plains states with strong NW winds howling and chilly daytime highs. This system has been on my calendar and its shaping up like it could deliver a hefty amount of precip and take on a classic autumnal look. Loads of precip... 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 Not much precip in Southeast Iowa. Looking like one of driest Septembers on record here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 I had surprise thunderstorm roll through early this morning and I picked up a half inch of much needed rain. The next 2 days look nice before the heat builds back in for the weekend. I can't wait for the system Tom showed above to get here and bring in the fall temps and more rainfall. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 The overnight low both here and officially at GRR was 57. Here at my house there was no rain yesterday. With the clouds and the wind most of yesterday was rather comfortable. I cut the grass and it was not bad out at all and by the time I went for my walk at 7 PM there were some people with light jackets on as the wind did feel cool by that time. At this time it is sunny and 63 here. I had to take a quick trip up to Bay City on Monday I managed to miss most of the rain both up there and back. It was cloudy all the way there and all the way back it did rain hard in Bay City and the streets were flooded. There is some color on the trees along M 46 but none as you get close to Bay City. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 36 this am 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 Certified "if only it weren't September" moment 3 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 My extended now has 66 next Wednesday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 Des Moines NWS with a fun little write up regarding the possible last real surge of hot weather this year and the potent Autumn front/cyclone next week. This weekend and into early next week our weather will be dominated by a large, deep-layer thermal ridge and robust warm air advection regime building across the region. This will bring temperatures all the way up to around 90 degrees on Sunday afternoon, quite possibly the last time we could see that mark reached this year. Monday will be almost as warm, with highs in the upper 80s or so. However, this last thrust of summer weather will be relatively short lived, as autumn senses its time has come and sends a shot across the bow shortly thereafter. This will come in the form of a large, deep cyclone crossing the Rockies around Monday night and deepening as it swings across the High Plains and Midwest toward the middle of next week. Long-range models depict a seasonally large and expanding precipitation field stretching along the associated surface cold front and wrapping around into the core of the cyclone. There are some timing differences among the various solutions as one would expect, but right now it appears the cold front and associated showers/storms would cross our area around Tuesday/Tuesday night, with the core of the low lifting slowly northeastward from Nebraska into Minnesota roughly around Wednesday. After the initial round of POPs along the front, the biggest sensible change from this system will be notably cooler weather toward the middle of the week, with highs probably in the 60s or 70s next Wednesday and Thursday. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted September 15, 2021 Report Share Posted September 15, 2021 We need some rain. The ground is like concrete and the grass is turning to straw. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2021 21 hours ago, Madtown said: 36 this am Did you have any frost?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2021 The idea of the seasons 1st frosts up north and possibly into parts of the MW/Plains are still showing up in the modeling later next week. I'm still thinking that post 25th there could be a more significant CF that is centered farther east across the GL's region. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2021 The JMA weeklies are in and provide us some insight to what we can potentially expect for the 1st couple weeks of the new LRC in October. First off, the model is beginning to hint at a cooler eastern CONUS for the last week of the month. Week 2... Temp/Precip... @Andie @OKwx2k4 there is your long awaited cool down for the south and into parts of the MW/OHV/GL's. Take a peak at the large cold pool in Russia and AN precip. Big clue for Dr. Cohen's SAI theory to come into play this year. Thankfully, the Hurricane threat in the GOM looks to shut down and primarily targeting the EC region. Week 3-4...some interesting clues begin dialing up as I see the model is sorta sniffing out a Bearing Sea trough. Initially, I suspect the month of October to begin with ridging near the Aleutians but by mid/late month a deeper trough could develop and that will IMO likely be dominant feature for this year's LRC. Temp/Precip...the general idea of a cooler eastern CONUS, warm middle U.S. and cooler PAC NW/Inter-mountain West as troughs will begin to inundate the western CONUS. Russia remains cold and snowy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 16, 2021 Report Share Posted September 16, 2021 @Beltrami Island How are the fall colors looking up there? Considering going up for photography purposes tomorrow. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 16, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 16, 2021 It’s a very comfortable morning here 76F/46F. The DP is at the lowest reading it has been since I’ve arrived as it is very noticeable. The stretch of 100’s continues…. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted September 16, 2021 Report Share Posted September 16, 2021 7 hours ago, Tom said: Did you have any frost?? Cranberry marshes had some, but that's nothing too unusual. They hit 32 almost every month but July. Fall colors are just starting...should be peak right around Sept 30th is my guess 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 FGF is still being rather nonchalant with the major pattern change next week. Quote The return to rainshowers with some thunder early is likely from later Mon/Mon night into Tue as the upstream trough possibly turns into closed/cutoff low near the forecast area. Current guidance backs off on this though, with a trend toward more of an open, albeit, deep wave that would tend to move things along faster. GEFS plumes are considerably lower than yesterday`s run with rain doses, pegging the area with less than an inch of total rainfall. A cooling trend should kick in from the middle of next week and beyond. Also, I brought back a classic for my avatar. 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 GFS and Euro both have weakened next week's low, and consequentially moved it north. Less rain and coolness for me. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 16 hours ago, FAR_Weather said: @Beltrami Island How are the fall colors looking up there? Considering going up for photography purposes tomorrow. It's definitely started and things maybe a little early through the season due to the drought. Some trees have been dropping leaves early as well, presumably from drought. Still majority full green so far though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 Looks like I had about 0.40' this morning as the cold front came through with a line of thunderstorms after 4:30 AM. Temp has dropped and the wind has switched out of the north. 60's for highs today. Roller coaster ride of temps the next few days which is very common around here in September. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 The Euro and GFS do offer some hope for rain for many of us. We really good use a good widespread soaking before the leaves begin to change color in a few weeks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 Happy Friday! The countdown to astronomical Autumn continues as we only have a few more days of Summer left and it will feel like it back home today. Upper 80's are in the forecast for ORD as late season warmth pokes out ahead of a CF straddling the northern Sub. There may be one more day of late season warmth early next week before the pattern really takes a turn and will feel like Autumn. Low and Behold, mother nature is going to welcome Autumn right on cue with a strong CF sweeping through the center of the nation. 0z Euro morning lows on 9/22... As the sun sets way up north, I'm inclined to believe the first bits of info on the developing cyclical pattern is evolving. I can't help but notice the strategic blocking patterns that suddenly blossom on 9/22 and the days ahead to close out the month. I've been studying the data coming in from the various models to get some insight on what we may be seeing in the weeks and months ahead. This morning, I "saw" something in the 500mb pattern that I've seen numerous times while combing through data. Ironically, it matches what the CFSv2 and other climate models are suggesting for this Autumn/Winter. By late month, notice the corridor that develops from AK and through W Canada into the our Sub...a massive West-Based Greenland Block/SW Ridge will ultimately set up an expansive trough into our Sub. For the record, as we get closer in time, the CFSv2 is seeing the Greenland block develop more epansively in the data. If you look out ahead into mid/late winter it looses it. This was a problem last year I recall vividly when not only this model, but you can also say that all of the others missed on the blocking. Can you see what I see? It's strikingly similar....nature provides clues and this is one of them IMO... With that being said, it is looking quite cool for the eastern Sub to close out the month...Who's ready for fall-like weather??? Full disclosure, I'm ready for those cool and crisp mornings while sipping on my morning coffee... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 17, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, Clinton said: The Euro and GFS do offer some hope for rain for many of us. We really good use a good widespread soaking before the leaves begin to change color in a few weeks. My neighbor sent me a picture of my lawn and it looked parched with no need to order a cut (which is fine by me). I think once we get towards the later parts of the month into Oct things will start to get active. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 First off there is a new look to the CPC's long range guess maps. Now there is now a back off on how warm it looks to get early next week and then there looks to be a major cool down. The average highs/lows for the next week start out today at 73.7/52.6 and fall to 70.7/49.8 by next Friday. The overnight low here both at my house and at GRR was 57. At this time with sunny skies it is 64. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 Currently at 70 but rain and scattered storms are about to move in with the front. Temps should hold in the 70s today. One more gasp of summer warmth sun-mon before Autumn gets dropped on us starting Tuesday with 60s for highs! My extended has nothing warmer than low 70s thru Oct 1st. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 Light rain continues with a temp of 55 and a north wind. Been a long time coming. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 Temp has dropped from 72 to 66 behind the front. Nice NW breeze. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 17, 2021 Report Share Posted September 17, 2021 Models have backed way off on next week's cooldown. I'll probably have one day of highs in the low 60s then I'll head back on up. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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