Tom Posted September 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2021 There are some chilly temps up near the Northwoods of MN/WI this morning as many locals have dipped to near 32F. Seasons 1st patchy Frosts? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2021 0z Euro cuts off the energy over the GL's region later next week on the Autumnal Equinox and dumps a hefty amount of precip. It appears that this may be a trend according to what I'm seeing in the ensembles. Big time blocking is doing its dirty work. Not only that, but cooler trends continue to favor the eastern Sub as the North American pattern amplifies.. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tStacsh Posted September 18, 2021 Report Share Posted September 18, 2021 I'm ready for a couple days in the 60's next week and some decent rain. Then back to perfect low to mid 70's early fall like temps. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted September 18, 2021 Report Share Posted September 18, 2021 A little weather history for Grand Rapids. In the last 70 years there has been 13 years when the first 32° low happened in the September. Also since 1950 there have been 39 Septembers when the last 80 day happened in September in fact the average last 80 day in that time was September 29th with a range of September 4th 1977 to November 1st 1950. Both 2020 and 2019 had their last 80 day in September. Bottom line is that for the most part days in the 80’s with become less frequent and there is not a chance of our fist frost. If you expand the dates going back to 1893 the average first 32 low happens in mid October and the range has been from September 3 1946 with the latest being November 14,1918. And that was odd because the earliest last 80 day was August 28th 1918. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 18, 2021 Report Share Posted September 18, 2021 After today only 2 more days of heat then low 70s with some upper 40s showing up for lows! 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 18, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 18, 2021 Holy Sandstorm! This has to be the craziest Haboob I’ve seen. IMG_1142.MP4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2021 I enjoyed yesterday's surprisingly strong storms that rolled in through the valley from the south. It brought some welcomed precip across the valley that generally amounted to .25-.40 of rain. Things have dried out a bit over here so that was nice to see. PHX officially recorded .11" of rain and the result was an end to the streak of 100's at Sky Harbor as the airport topped out at 98F. The storms whipped up a lot of dust and you could taste it in the air. It was quite the sandstorm to be honest as the gusty winds were swirling in my complex. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 19, 2021 We'll be tracking our seasons strongest Autumnal CF right on que....it's like a wall of cool air will spill into the region. Imagine tracking something with this type of vigor in the Winter...boy, I'd like to see these fronts as we roll into the early part of Winter around the holidays. How about you? 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 19, 2021 Report Share Posted September 19, 2021 While I'm looking forward to the first fall cold front of the season things are really drying out. The GFS keeps pushing the moisture east tomorrow night, the Euro is a little more encouraging. Both models keep things mostly dry all the way to Oct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted September 19, 2021 Report Share Posted September 19, 2021 Hit 32 on Friday night/Sat am. Official temp. I only got down to 40 here, but I'm in the woods not a wide open field. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted September 19, 2021 Report Share Posted September 19, 2021 4 hours ago, Tom said: We'll be tracking our seasons strongest Autumnal CF right on que....it's like a wall of cool air will spill into the region. Imagine tracking something with this type of vigor in the Winter...boy, I'd like to see these fronts as we roll into the early part of Winter around the holidays. How about you? I'm beyond excited. Those 50s for however long will feel amazing. It'll be like being woke up and refreshed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted September 19, 2021 Report Share Posted September 19, 2021 Nice to see cooler temperatures moving in. But more than 1.5 inches of rain in 50 days would be nice. Borderline absurd now. Despite decent rain at times its become way way to infrequent. Since July 31 barely a cloud. 3 light rains to settle dust. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 North Dakota has a civil emergency alert. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 5 hours ago, Thunder98 said: North Dakota has a civil emergency alert. Pffft, they issue those for every silver alert here, which is about once a month. It's kinda annoying tbh. I don't need to be woken up to be informed about Old Granny Twittlefingers from Williston. I was on the Minnesota side of the border all afternoon, so I didn't get the alert. Funny how that works. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 Scattered thunderstorms happened this evening here. If you've ever been to the gulf coast and seen the radar on your average summer afternoon there, that's how the radar looks here. Really not helpful to the drought. Expecting a bit more with the fropa. 70°F. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 Last night was the rainiest night I can remember in forever it seems. 5-6 hours of constant rain shifting between steady, moderate, and heavy rain, nothing severe but decent amount of thunder. You really couldn't have drawn a better a better outcome for the D4 drought areas of northern Minnesota. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 I'm hoping for a solid soaker this evening. Models have been consistently showing 0.50-1.00" across the area. Once again, it may be quite a while until the next rain. This summer sure has had a lot of long dry periods. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 First fall like cold front is on it's way! Models showing .5-1 inch of rain possible for my area this evening but not much margin of error. If the storms fire further east I will be left high and dry. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 20 minutes ago, Clinton said: First fall like cold front is on it's way! Models showing .5-1 inch of rain possible for my area this evening but not much margin of error. If the storms fire further east I will be left high and dry. Love how those temps look behind that front! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 67 degrees at 12:30 pm with a NW wind gusting to 25 MPH and a dew of 49. Low tonight of 48, high tomorrow of 68 and low tomorrow night of 41. Love this kind of weather. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 The slight risk area has been expanded. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watch til 10pm! 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 Persistent light rain for the past few hours here. 55°F. 2 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 It's looking possible that there will be no measurable rain in Lincoln through the rest of Sept. (entire GFS run has nothing). If that's the case, KLNK will only have 0.31" for the month (7th driest on record). Though most of the rest of the town has more due to the storm at the beginning of the month. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 Severe Thunderstorm Watch about to be issued for KC area. High cape values 1500/2000 and dew points around 70 could make for some noisy storms 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 Just looked at our weather almanac, I forgot that the autumnal equinox is Wednesday. Sunrise and sunset are both about 7:30. Average high temps are now low to mid 70's and lows are about mid 40's. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 20, 2021 Report Share Posted September 20, 2021 It's looking like the best rain wants to track north and south of Cedar Rapids. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Hawkeye said: It's looking like the best rain wants to track north and south of Cedar Rapids. Same thing down here, storms just can't seem to form a solid line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 .13” here. Rained for 5-10 minutes. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 Thankfully, the line filled in as it approached Cedar Rapids. I got a decent storm. It just didn't last long. My total is 0.51". Johnson county (Iowa City) ended up getting the weakest/thinnest part of the line. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 Went to my son’s JV football game tonight. Sweatshirts on everyone. Temp was in the upper 50’s. It was chilly. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 The skies finally opened up here I received .60 inches. Another line is developing to my west so I may be able to add on some more. Temp is down to 73 and the wind is gusting to 35mph. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 1.27" here for the evening 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OttumwaSnomow Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 Well, models did very well in Southeast Iowa. I only had .48 today and a very dry 1.11 for September to date. But many spots nearby including the city of Ottumwa had a inch plus. Very thankful, but sincerely hope we dont have anoth 15 to 20 day before our next rain! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 Lows this week and weekend are going to be in the 40s to low 50s. Finally some hoodies after sunset weather. Edit: Also I swear I don't remember Sept 9 having a high of 49 last year. That's crazy. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 Hello from Chicago! I flew back on a very early flight out of PHX at 5:15am local time. As many of you were tracking the seasons first Autumn CF, I was doing the same thing at 35,000ft. It was an interesting flight as I captured the sunrise out of the SW region and into the S Plains we flew. As we approached the CF, the captain went on the intercom and made a comment about how far reaching it was all the way down from Canada. It was interesting to hear some wx related “talk” from a pilot over the intercom. He said we were 40 miles away from a line of storms and be prepared for turbulence. The videos I’m sharing below are when we approached the line and as we flew in and around small storms. Turbulence wasn’t bad at all. These were tiny cells anyway. Needless to say, I had a fantastic time in AZ and enjoyed the Monsoon wx and traveling up north visiting the Grand Canyon. I checked off a few things on my bucket list. I’m glad to be back and the wx pattern is looking mighty fine. I’m ready for Fall. IMG_1151.MOV IMG_1148.MP4 IMG_1158.MOV IMG_1161.MOV IMG_1160.MP4 IMG_1162.MOV IMG_1164.MOV 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 Let me know if you could see some of the videos I posted above. The one I posted with comments on it was saved in a different method on my phone but the others were via my iPhone using the HD effect. It may not be able to play depending on what type of phone or computer you have. I dunno, I'm just trying to figure this out so I know for future reference. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 Well, hello there...we haven't tracked one of these cut-off Lower Lakes systems in what seems like years. 06z NAM is eye candy... What's interesting about this scenario is it features a multi-faceted cyclone that favors a storm system tracking during the cold season with favorable characteristics...lake effect rain showers??? Sweet Defo Band??? All the high rez models are locked on this scenario. Where is @jaster220 @Niko BTW, I've noticed Niko hasn't been on here for a long time. I'm beginning to wonder if he's alright. Anyone keep in touch with him? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted September 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 The 0z EPS and other modeling is suggesting a pattern where both sides of the nation shall share cool pools while the Plains/Upper MW and N Rockies could bake later this month into early Oct.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted September 21, 2021 Report Share Posted September 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Tom said: Let me know if you could see some of the videos I posted above. The one I posted with comments on it was saved in a different method on my phone but the others were via my iPhone using the HD effect. It may not be able to play depending on what type of phone or computer you have. I dunno, I'm just trying to figure this out so I know for future reference. I was only able to watch the video of you flying in to the line of storms on my Android. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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