Jump to content

September 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I can't tell if this is the first system in a new cycle or part of the old pattern caught in the transition.  It will be interesting to watch.

I was thinking the same thing early this morning when I looked back at my notes of the LRC.  Back in Oct 27th-30th, a very similar pattern set up and cycled these cutoffs through the year.  Let’s see where it takes us as I believe it gets caught in the transition.  The blocking is going to be massive to the north and east across the Upper MW/GL’s.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was in Kzoo on business today. Pretty amazing that Marshall was 49F at 1:30 pm. Has to be some of the colder temps in Sept 23 history. Kinda reminded me of some of the cold of '81 and especially '89. The first flipped at Christmas with the mega-Nino, while '89 was very cold and remained at least somewhat cold and snowy into the new year. It was decent. My last winter in SEMI before moving north.

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/22/2021 at 9:50 PM, jaster220 said:

2.61" storm total so far per KYIP which is about 7 mi SSW of home here. Have a lull and not sure if the ULL keeps that blob west of here or it rotates thru later tonight

KYIP finished at 3.84" mostly from first round, while KRMY rallied with the ULL last night to score above forecast at 3.25"

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

I was in Kzoo on business today. Pretty amazing that Marshall was 49F at 1:30 pm. Has to be some of the colder temps in Sept 23 history. Kinda reminded me of some of the cold of '81 and especially '89. The first flipped at Christmas with the mega-Nino, while '89 was very cold and remained at least somewhat cold and snowy into the new year. It was decent. My last winter in SEMI before moving north.

I was looking at the radar early yesterday morning and KZOO was getting hammered in some of the heaviest non thunderstorm rains I've seen in a very long time.  It was great to see a spinning mid lat cyclone early on this Autumn season around these parts.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The wx pattern over the next 7-10 days looks phenomenal around these parts.  Not to hot, not to cool...plenty of sunshine and comfortable DP's...nothing but 70's and some warmer low/mid 80's for a few days later next week.  The only "issue" I see is the drier pattern over N IL/S WI were the drought has intensified once again since it's been so dry this past month.  If we'd have our first frosts, this wx pattern would constitute as prime time Indian Summer wx.  

In other news, it has been very dry in the SW/TX Pan Handle region but nature is going to flip that script and provide abundant moisture.

 5.pngThe models are locking in on a ribbon of heavy precip up through the C Plains and SW...

1.png

 

4.png

 

As we get closer to the period when the new LRC begins, I'm beginning to see a new pattern mixing in as we close out this month and enter the first days of Oct.  Needless to say, I'm enthusiastic to see the wetter pattern setting up in the SW/S Plains.  Nature providing some initial clues as I foresee this will be an exhibit to the new LRC pattern..."Southern Stream Storm Track"...there is just an overwhelming signal for blocking to be present across the north next month.  Let's see how this all shapes up.

LR GEFS....notice the ribbon of AN precip from Cali/SW/Plains into the GL's...hmmmm

 

6.png

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here at my house I recorded a total of 1.45" of rain fall for this event. The official high at Grand Rapids of 57 yesterday was the 9th coldest for any September 23rd it was the coldest high for any September 23 at Grand Rapids since a 56 in 1995 the record for the date is 49 back in 1928. We will be going to the Tiger's game tonight. It looks like the rain will hold off until after the game.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/21/2021 at 2:27 AM, Tom said:

Well, hello there...we haven't tracked one of these cut-off Lower Lakes systems in what seems like years.  06z NAM is eye candy...

2.gif

 

What's interesting about this scenario is it features a multi-faceted cyclone that favors a storm system tracking during the cold season with favorable characteristics...lake effect rain showers???  Sweet Defo Band???  All the high rez models are locked on this scenario.  Where is @jaster220 @Niko  BTW, I've noticed Niko hasn't been on here for a long time.  I'm beginning to wonder if he's alright.  Anyone keep in touch with him?

Hello Tom

Greetings from Los Angeles, Ca. I am currently in Santa Barbara and I gotta tell ya, its pretty nippy here. Low clouds currently w temps holding in the upper 50s. Highs here not getting outta the 60s. (Goleta is the place to be exact where I am currently at). Came for a wedding.  Flew to Lax 2 days ago and drove north to Santa Barbara (took route 101). Gotta tell ya, luv all of these "Palm Trees" around. Very nice area here. Btw: I flew over your area (Arizona, near Flagstaff). 

Anyways, hope everyone had a great Summer and a safe one for that matter. Been traveling quite a bit these past few months, so lots of catching up to do once I finally get back to Detroit.

Btw: I heard about that wicked storm Detroit had couple of days ago. Holy smokes! Excellent track for an epic winterstorm. Had it been Winter, over 4ft would had fallin in the Detroit Metro area. Hopefully a sign of great snowstorms ahead for this upcoming Winter.

  • Like 4

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@jaster220

Welcome to Detroit sir! Wow! Niko waves back to ya. Hope your move here is a pleasant one. Now watch, this year, Marshall gets inundated w WsW's lol.

Anyways, welcome to Detroit.

  • Thanks 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Niko said:

Hello Tom

Greetings from Los Angeles, Ca. I am currently in Santa Barbara and I gotta tell ya, its pretty nippy here. Low clouds currently w temps holding in the upper 50s. Highs here not getting outta the 60s. (Goleta is the place to be exact where I am currently at). Came for a wedding.  Flew to Lax 2 days ago and drove north to Santa Barbara (took route 101). Gotta tell ya, luv all of these "Palm Trees" around. Very nice area here. Btw: I flew over your area (Arizona, near Flagstaff). 

Anyways, hope everyone had a great Summer and a safe one for that matter. Been traveling quite a bit these past few months, so lots of catching up to do once I finally get back to Detroit.

Btw: I heard about that wicked storm Detroit had couple of days ago. Holy smokes! Excellent track for an epic winterstorm. Had it been Winter, over 4ft would had fallin in the Detroit Metro area. Hopefully a sign of great snowstorms ahead for this upcoming Winter.

Good to hear from ya and enjoy the west coast trip.  I love heading out to the west coast and seeing the ocean along with enjoying the beautiful wx (except for today).  It’s rare to get that chilly out that way during the summer.  That cut off low is ill-timed!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Tom said:

Good to hear from ya and enjoy the west coast trip.  I love heading out to the west coast and seeing the ocean along with enjoying the beautiful wx (except for today).  It’s rare to get that chilly out that way during the summer.  That cut off low is ill-timed!

Thanks bud......Yes, its quite cool here tanite. Just came back from the rehearsal dinner and then the "Meet and Greet" and man, was it chilly. Temps in the 50s with smoke in the sky. Very hazy skies. I still have not seen sunshine here the Santa Barbara area. Will post pics on here soon. Heading back to Los Angeles on Monday. 

Btw: still trying to adjust the 3 hour change in time zone.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Niko said:

Yes, its quite cool here tanite. Just came back from the rehearsal dinner and then the "Meet and Greet" and man, was it chilly. Temps in the 50s with smoke in the sky. Very hazy skies. I still have not seen sunshine here the Santa Barbara area. Will post pics on here soon. Heading back to Los Angeles on Monday. 

Btw: still trying to adjust the 3 hour change in time zone.

I know the feeling!  When I was in AZ earlier this month I never adjusted to the 2 hour difference and was waking up at 3:00am everyday and in bed by 9:00pm...my body works like clock work and I find it very difficult to adjust to different time zones.  Can't imagine going to Asia when its like a 12 hour difference.  Heck, even going to Europe is a 7 hour difference from central time zone.  Anyway, that's a whole other topic of conversation.

Meantime, that cut-off low continues to spin over the SW parts of AZ delivering welcomed precip over the region.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only about .12" of precip from yesterday's FROPA...it's a chilly 51F with plenty of 40's out W & NW.  It'll prob be the coolest morning of the season at ORD if we dip to 50F.

It appears the better forcing is coming together as the CF moves through IN/MI as the radar has lit up with embedded heavier showers... 

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=100&interval=5&year=2021&month=9&day=24&hour=22&minute=0

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It appears Sheldon, IA (nw) may have hit 28º this morning.  Three other stations in nw Iowa hit 32º.

The Cedar Rapids airport is 38º.

  • Like 3

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Tom said:

I know the feeling!  When I was in AZ earlier this month I never adjusted to the 2 hour difference and was waking up at 3:00am everyday and in bed by 9:00pm...my body works like clock work and I find it very difficult to adjust to different time zones.  Can't imagine going to Asia when its like a 12 hour difference.  Heck, even going to Europe is a 7 hour difference from central time zone.  Anyway, that's a whole other topic of conversation.

Meantime, that cut-off low continues to spin over the SW parts of AZ delivering welcomed precip over the region.

 

Lol...that Tom is like hell for me when I go there. The first few days are very hard. For i.e., when people there go to sleep, I wake up, it takes me tbh at least 4 to 5 days to adjust. Now coming back to the states takes me a week to get used to everything.

Quick question: do you know if its going to clear up here at all on the west coast. Would luv to see some Cal- Sunshine. The mountains are cover in low clouds for days now.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Lol...that Tom is like hell for me when I go there. The first few days are very hard. For i.e., when people there go to sleep, I wake up, it takes me tbh at least 4 to 5 days to adjust. Now coming back to the states takes me a week to get used to everything.

Quick question: do you know if its going to clear up here at all on the west coast. Would luv to see some Cal- Sunshine. The mountains are cover in low clouds for days now.

It doesn't look good bc that low is going to spin there through Sun...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

It doesn't look good bc that low is going to spin there through Sun...

Ugh! Bummer!

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/24/2021 at 2:14 PM, Niko said:

@jaster220

Welcome to Detroit sir! Wow! Niko waves back to ya. Hope your move here is a pleasant one. Now watch, this year, Marshall gets inundated w WsW's lol.

Anyways, welcome to Detroit.

Thanks for the welcome "homey"

Lol if Marshall gets slammed. Tbh, I'm feeling pretty good about my new region doing well this winter and my "other backyard" could be included. 

A storm like we just experienced is such a rarity/oddity that I don't know what to think of it tbh. I can't remember anything like it so early. Not when I was growing up in SEMI, and not during the almost 31 years I was away. There was a hurricane remnant back in 1988 that was a wind-driven rainstorm, and Ike in Sept 2008 (while I was out of country) dumped even more rain at least in Marshall. But this system wasn't tropical at all. A winter version would likely have dethroned the April 1886 reigning champ.

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Well into the 80s on Tuesday and probably not getting below 60 that night. Really thought we were done with that sh!t but looks like I get to run my AC again!!!

The “September Sizzle”…did you get your first frosts yet?  I saw there were some advisories issued yesterday to your west.  Gotta get the Indian Summer wx outta the way.  TBH, I’d rather see this prolong warmth in late Sept/Oct rather then during Nov (Thanksgiving) or Dec. Plus, you get to enjoy the outdoors a little more before real gloomy autumn wx settles in.  


Personally speaking, my grid only has a couple days in the mid 80’s and the rest in the 70’s with nothing but sunshine.  That’s like a gift from nature.  I’m sure the farmers are enjoying this dry pattern for harvesting crop.  
 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty milk-toast weather for the large part of us for a few morecdays to a week, probably; but, where our focus should be right now is what a super typhoon is going to set off when it thrashes the polar regions and then there Sam on the other side.

Get ya opopcorn ready because the show's about to start as we close this month out.

October is going to be interesting...

Blend of 2010 and 2013 plus 2014 are my playbook options right now, but a 2000 and 2001 blend is a probable one as well.

Southern jet is going to do some weird stuff this year based solely on just "Niña metrics".

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Tom said:

The “September Sizzle”…did you get your first frosts yet?  I saw there were some advisories issued yesterday to your west.  Gotta get the Indian Summer wx outta the way.  TBH, I’d rather see this prolong warmth in late Sept/Oct rather then during Nov (Thanksgiving) or Dec. Plus, you get to enjoy the outdoors a little more before real gloomy autumn wx settles in.  


Personally speaking, my grid only has a couple days in the mid 80’s and the rest in the 70’s with nothing but sunshine.  That’s like a gift from nature.  I’m sure the farmers are enjoying this dry pattern for harvesting crop.  
 

 

I've been thinking about the harvesters, myself the other night while enjoying the cool, dry air. The last 2 weeks for a lot of those folks has had to have been one of the most beautiful in a long time.

When I looked at the moon and felt the seasons, just know that I havent witnessed a September like this in over 20 years. Probably since the early 90s when I was a kid. Anyway, random thoughts, but what a beautiful harvest moon it was this year.

Calm before the storm?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I've been thinking about the harvesters, myself the other night while enjoying the cool, dry air. The last 2 weeks for a lot of those folks has had to have been one of the most beautiful in a long time.

When I looked at the moon and felt the seasons, just know that I havent witnessed a September like this in over 20 years. Probably since the early 90s when I was a kid. Anyway, random thoughts, but what a beautiful harvest moon it was this year.

Calm before the storm?

Speaking of the harvest moon, I saw it when I was in the plane on the tarmac heading back to Chicago from Arizona this past Monday.  It was a magnificent site to see just above the horizon.  I agree with ya, the models are doing some wacky things ATM, esp trying to figure out the blocking patterns.  I do also see a strong southern jet setting up for periods this cold season.  Enjoy the beautiful Autumn wx!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The overnight low both here at my house and at GRR was 47. At this time it is sunny and 62 here. On my daily walk there are several oak and walnut trees and this year there are a ton of acorns and  walnuts falling off of them that could be a sign. According to old winter folklore "Lots of acorns and walnuts in the fall also indicate a cold winter ahead." so I guess we can put that in the winter guess for the upcoming winter.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Tom said:

The “September Sizzle”…did you get your first frosts yet?  I saw there were some advisories issued yesterday to your west.  Gotta get the Indian Summer wx outta the way.  TBH, I’d rather see this prolong warmth in late Sept/Oct rather then during Nov (Thanksgiving) or Dec. Plus, you get to enjoy the outdoors a little more before real gloomy autumn wx settles in.  


Personally speaking, my grid only has a couple days in the mid 80’s and the rest in the 70’s with nothing but sunshine.  That’s like a gift from nature.  I’m sure the farmers are enjoying this dry pattern for harvesting crop.  
 

 

No frosts yet, it only hit 41 here. Higher elevation areas to my west did see frost.

  • Like 1

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our average first frost is 9/18. It's looking like we will go well into October without one. It's like we're overcorrecting for last year where our first frost was in early September.

Mid-70s and mid-50s are nice and all, but I'd rather not have every day be just that going into the second week of October, when colder weather becomes more supported by climo.

Averages right now are upper 60s/mid-40s.

PS: Grids are showing 86 on Tuesday.

  • Like 2

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The sun finally came out here yesterday in Santa Barbara, CA. Temps remained at near 70F and not a cloud to be found. It felt so good to finally feel and see the "California Sunshine."

So, the wedding was beautiful as well. Food was amazing. Leaving for Los Angeles today. Thinking of taking route1 for scenery, instead of 101. Currently its 61F under cloudy skies in the Goleta area. 

Happy Sunday everyone!

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Niko said:

The sun finally came out here yesterday in Santa Barbara, CA. Temps remained at near 70F and not a cloud to be found. It felt so good to finally feel and see the "California Sunshine."

So, the wedding was beautiful as well. Food was amazing. Leaving for Los Angeles today. Thinking of taking route1 for scenery, instead of 101. Currently its 61F under cloudy skies in the Goleta area. 

Happy Sunday everyone!

I highly recommend taking PCH down to LA and seeing all the nice beach towns.  It’s a nice drive for sure.  Glad the sun made its presence!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was a Splendid Sunday yesterday as we reached a high of 83F along with pristine blue skies and a strong southwesterly breeze.  You couldn't of dialed it up any better.  Looking for a bit warmer temps today peaking in the upper 80's before a lake enduced CF sweeps in just before dinner time.  This week of wx is about as good as it gets around here.  While it will be dry all week here, there are changes brewing for later this weekend....Lower Lakes cutter???  The models are showing some intriguing signs for the new LRC pattern setting up as we close out Sept and open up October.

0z Euro...bountiful precip heading for the "heartland" of the nation...

1.png

 

  • Like 3
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Tom said:

It was a Splendid Sunday yesterday as we reached a high of 83F along with pristine blue skies and a strong southwesterly breeze.  You couldn't of dialed it up any better.  Looking for a bit warmer temps today peaking in the upper 80's before a lake enduced CF sweeps in just before dinner time.  This week of wx is about as good as it gets around here.  While it will be dry all week here, there are changes brewing for later this weekend....Lower Lakes cutter???  The models are showing some intriguing signs for the new :RC pattern setting up as we close out Sept and open up October.

0z Euro...bountiful precip heading for the "heartland" of the nation...

1.png

 

Boy does that map look good! Last week's drought monitor moved my area in to the abnormally dry category. 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It was an anomalous day yesterday in the PHX area for the time of year.  For the most part, the entire day was spent under cloudy skies and rainy weather.  The high was only 80F while a large part of the valley enjoyed a very nice stratiform rainfall that soaked into the soils.  My father said it was almost chilly...I guess his thin blood had something to do with it! 

Monsoon season is poised to finish off with a Bang for AZ this week.  If you ever wonder why I keep referencing to wx pattern in this part of the nation its because I strongly believe it is a glimpse of what we are about to endure when the all important month of Oct shows itself.  I'll prob start an Oct thread today or tomorrow as there will be a lot to discuss.  Let me tell ya, the trends are looking better and wetter for a good portion of our central/southern Sub to open up the 1st week of Oct.  The models are seeing the Canadian blocks...Banana HP's...don't you tease us!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

In the Autumn Discussion, I opined what the pressure patterns in the high lats would do to our wx pattern in the mid lats.  The trends in both the GEFS/EPS are starting to cool temps in the mid range.  On the flip side, in the very LR, the models were blow torch warm.  Suddenly, as we get closer in time, they are trending cooler...and...wetter....

1.gif

 

2.gif

 

Now, this is were the modeling has been showing signs of early busts.  IMO, it has a lot to do with the "tongue" of very warm waters in the NE PAC...as well as the new features of the developing cyclical pattern.  Not to mention, the other LR clues using the EAR and BSR.  All point towards a stormier pattern setting up across our Sub heading into next week followed by some cooler wx towards mid month.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

My early thoughts on what I anticipate this year's La Nina to deliver is NOT going to be your typical La Nina pattern.  I'm predicting an active SW storm track based on what we've been already seeing happen in the desert SW.  Moreover, the models are shifting towards that crucial "hand off" of troughs in the NE PAC.  Check out the 0z EPS animation below and you could see the modeling handing off troughs into Cali.  After the current trough moves out of AZ/NM, the next one is targeting So Cal around the 5th/6th followed by a stronger trough just past the 8th in this animation.  TBH, I'm digging this set up.  Blocking over The Top....don't you stop!

3.gif

 

Finally, I'll end with this....I know we have seen the past few Septembers produce some early season CF's sweep down the leeward side of the Rockies, but that hasn't happened this year.  Instead, we are seeing storm enduced cold from strong troughs in the 4 corners.  This leads us to an early start to winter and a wonderful site to see for the CO Rockies...Telluride, CO with snow for days...Let it Snow

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=204&y=201&site=gjt&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=204&map_y=201

  • Like 3
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...