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September 2021 Observations and Discussion


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8 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

2.62" in my rain gauge this morning and it was very LOUD last night with the booming thunder...lol.  We may get more heavy rain here tonight and tomorrow morning but I expect heavier rains to be just south of me this time around.

Looking forward to the new LRC showing itself and fall weather soon!

I've only had light to moderate rain here, maybe .25.  Have a feeling this mornings activity will push everything south of us tonight but the HRRR still shows a good hit.

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48 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I've only had light to moderate rain here, maybe .25.  Have a feeling this mornings activity will push everything south of us tonight but the HRRR still shows a good hit.

Yeah, hope you get beneficial rain out of this. I thought you might be in a good position tonight so hopefully it doesn't skip past you.

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  • 21-22 snowfalls >=3": none; Season total: 0.0" (0% of normal 17.0")
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Today's seemingly low-end event turned into a big overachiever for my area.  Widespread 1-2" of rain has fallen across the Cedar Rapids metro.

My total is 1.57".   😃

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season snowfall: 0.0"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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6 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I feel for you.  We are only 64 degrees at 9 AM headed to a high of 75.  We actually have lows in the low 50's forecasted in the next week.  

This is when it gets hard.  Cool up north and sizzling down here. However, usually our winters aren’t so bad. But I think this one we’ll see a very different picture.  

See the recent post in the Climate Forum.  Nice article on the effects of a warmer arctic on the bitter cold in the lower 48.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Andie said:

This is when it gets hard.  Cool up north and sizzling down here. However, usually our winters aren’t so bad. But I think this one we’ll see a very different picture.  

See the recent post in the Climate Forum.  Nice article on the effects of a warmer arctic on the bitter cold in the lower 48.  

Yeah you’re winters would be awesome since I’m not a cold weather fan. 

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Rainfall here was kind of lame compared to the northern part of my county which probably was the winner with the heaviest amounts in eastern Iowa of up to 2”+. This summer, like the past few, it’s been hard to get a direct hit. The first round today dropped .54” and the second round mostly missed with only .16” for a total of .70”. People within 10 miles west of here probably are wishing it would dry off, which it should. Nice rains here though, and finally just enough to green up the lawns at my place.

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2 hours ago, Sparky said:

Yeah you’re winters would be awesome since I’m not a cold weather fan. 

Well, by comparison they’re better but things have been changing.  Polar Vortex has found our address and I think this winter will match the last one.   
I’m preparing for a potential outage.  There’s no way they could have fixed their issues in less than a year.  
Keep your eyes on the southern plains after the first of the year.  Could be a repeat.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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When it rains it pours or at least that seems to be the case the last few years. I found this stat interesting.

Update...KC received 1.07" of rainfall today making for the 13th day this year with over an inch of rain. That is tied of the 3rd most on the 133-year record through this date. #Buckets https://twitter.com/NWSKansasCity/status/1433606836947546120

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I can tell Fall is descending on the US.
The hummingbirds have returned from their summer nesting areas up north.  
They’re on  their way to the mountains in Mexico and Central America.  

More heat here, 98*, until Monday when we drop to 93*.  Not cool but hey, it’s all relative.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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2 hours ago, Andie said:

I can tell Fall is descending on the US.
The hummingbirds have returned from their summer nesting areas up north.  
They’re on  their way to the mountains in Mexico and Central America.  

More heat here, 98*, until Monday when we drop to 93*.  Not cool but hey, it’s all relative.  

Better than Phoenix

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I moved to Southeast  Iowa in 2008.  I have my entire  life studied  weather and climate history.   Its particularly  interesting  in Mid Atlantic  as records and written  accounts  go back to the 1600s.  I have studied  historical  midwest data as to wild swings in yearly  precip here.  I researched  many location  in Iowa, Illinois, Missouri,  etc.  There seems to be a bermuda triangle  of extremes  in Ottumwa, IA city, Peroria, Kirksville where its even more exaggerated.   This year illustrates it. Burlington  has been the wettest as is climatology  expected with 31 inches. Ottumwa  is 2nd of major reporting  locations.  But in Aug Ottumwa  just .74!!!!!  And shockingly I hear  Fairfield  less than .25?   After Fairfield  basically  wettest location in Iowa  for 2 yrs!  I really believe  its tough to find a more feast or famine area than Southeast  Iowa.  Yes much of midwest  is similar,even nebraska. But  it seems to be slightly  more exaggerated  here.  Thoughts?

Screenshot_20210904-133441_Chrome.jpg

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I finished the day with .90 in and my 2 day total was 1.15 one of the lowest in the area.

Louisiana is about to be targeted again first by a tropical low this upcoming week and then by a potentially major hurricane around the 14th. This time conditions should be favorable for the hurricane remnants to reach mby and move up into the lower lakes then on to the NE states. Man I feel horrible for those that keep getting hit over and over. The GFS is beginning to sniff this out.

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La. has had years like this if memory serves me.  It’s really hard as many will loose everything if they haven’t already.  Compounded with a pandemic and it’s just mind dumbing.  
 

 

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It was a nice but humid day, good to see the 80+ streak end.

The high temperatures at KC today was 77 degrees marking the first time we haven't reached 80 degrees in KC since 7/11. That was a span of 54-days which was the 17th longest on the 133-year record.

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Both here at my house and officially at GRR there was .05" of rain fall yesterday. That was the first rain at Grand Rapids since August 24th when just .06" fell and in the last 25 days there has been just 0.13" of total rain fall at GRR. At this time it is sunny here with a temperature of 69 with a dew point of 64. While it was indeed cool yesterday afternoon the dew point did reach 67 yesterday during the light rain/mist we had.

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GFS is flashing pretty decent snow in Northern Ontario. Thought it was just a clown range thing, but it's showing it at Day 9 now. Always encouraging to see the first signs of a changing season, even if it's more gradual this year than it was last year.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 8.9"

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1 hour ago, FAR_Weather said:

GFS is flashing pretty decent snow in Northern Ontario. Thought it was just a clown range thing, but it's showing it at Day 9 now. Always encouraging to see the first signs of a changing season, even if it's more gradual this year than it was last year.

When do they normally have their first snow of the fall?

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Woo!   78* and a very nice rain!


Makes you want to run nek-ked out in the back yard! But I don’t want to scare the golfers! 😇

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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8 hours ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

When do they normally have their first snow of the fall?

Kenora, the largest city within that region, receives 0.47 days of snowfall each September on average. October is their normal first, but September snows seem to happen every few years and are overall unsurprising.

>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 8.9"

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There was 0.06" of rain fall both here at my house and officially at GRR. That brings the September total to 0.11" Going back to August 12 there has been just 0.19" of rain fall at GRR. Yesterdays official high at GRR was 81 and for the month we are just about average with a departure of -0.2° At this time it is clear here at my house and I have a temperature of 58.

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I’m seeing Texas temps begin to vary and roller coaster between 93 and 98 week to week in Sept.   

This is typical Texas seasonal change in September and very encouraging that we’ll have a more normal Fall.  

I still expect a polar vortex dive in late January or February like last year.  I’m preparing for it now.   We don’t trust Texas power grid yet.  the article I posted in Climate  recently may explain it better.  

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/changing-climate/study-warmer-arctic-led-to-killer-cold-in-texas-much-of-us/2733607/

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'm back, ladies and gentlemen. The tired leaves slowly falling off the trees that were burned off in April.

What a summer. I'm really sad it's over for personal reasons, but I never love the season. Lol.

I hope all are well. I needed a break from some stuff anyway.

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46 minutes ago, Andie said:

I’m seeing Texas temps begin to vary and roller coaster between 93 and 98 week to week in Sept.   

This is typical Texas seasonal change in September and very encouraging that we’ll have a more normal Fall.  

I still expect a polar vortex dive in late January or February like last year.  I’m preparing for it now.   We don’t trust Texas power grid yet.  the article I posted in Climate  recently may explain it better.  

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/national-international/changing-climate/study-warmer-arctic-led-to-killer-cold-in-texas-much-of-us/2733607/

Im going to apologize openly here for missing the last part of my summer prediction for you down there. Been hotter about 2wks longer than I anticipated for both of us.

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You did say it would swing though.  
so, it didn’t surprise me and you didn’t totally miss.   
Texas has been confounding Mets for decades!😉

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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It has been very dry the last 25 days so we could use some rain. At this time there are some storms over northern Lake Michigan and part of the UP.  Here it is clear and a rather cool morning the overnight low here and officially at GRR was 53. At this time with the clear skies it is 55.

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Front just blew through with clouds and gusty NW winds. Definite drop in humidity as well. Sort of getting that change of season vibe with the shorter days and temps a bit cooler. Some leaves have been falling, mostly due to dry weather, and some leaves are starting to color a bit. 

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1 hour ago, james1976 said:

Front just blew through with clouds and gusty NW winds. Definite drop in humidity as well. Sort of getting that change of season vibe with the shorter days and temps a bit cooler. Some leaves have been falling, mostly due to dry weather, and some leaves are starting to color a bit. 

According to my records on my weather station, except for one day on 6/20, this is the first day since 5/27 with strong, gusty winds out of the NW. We've had windy days since then, and days with winds out of the NW, but not a combo of the two of them after the passage of a cold front.

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Sweet, sweet seasonal norms. A year ago today, we had a high of 54*F and lows were near the freezing mark.

Quote
This Afternoon
Sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a northwest wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 52. Northwest wind 8 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 73. North northwest wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light northwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 53. South southeast wind 6 to 8 mph.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 82. South wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. South southwest wind around 9 mph becoming north northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 73. North northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Saturday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. North wind 6 to 11 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70. North wind 6 to 8 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Southeast wind around 7 mph.
Monday
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 74. South southeast wind 9 to 13 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

 

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 8.9"

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I've been on the road since early Sat morning as we took a trip up into northern Arizona.  Our first stop was Page, AZ where we visited multiple places that included Lake Powell and Horseshoe Bend.  It was pretty hot and dry with temps in the mid 90's so we focused on doing any hiking early in the morning on Sun, which was the day we went to Horseshoe Bend.  We spent most of Sat down by the lake and then later in the evening saw some scenic views.  You could say Page is a small town that is typically packed with tourists (mainly boaters) from all over the SW region of the U.S.  Tons of houseboats on that lake.  The water temp was 80F.  It was sad to see how low the water levels have gotten.

The most profound and exciting part of the trip was at the Grand Canyon North Rim.  It was quite the ride from Page south towards the North Rim.  We drove through vast, barren plateaus, to winding roads that lead along the towering cliffs of the Grand Canyon.  It's amazing to me how fast the landscape changes and temps drop once you get to the top of the Grand Canyon (8,800ft).  There is a profound difference compared to the south rim whereby the north rim is not only higher by 1,100 feet, but it also receives 15 feet of snow annually while the south only gets about 5 feet.  The north rim has a mature forest landscape filled with pine, evergreen and what looked like aspen trees.  I went wild mushroom picking and found a few big ones!  This was a trip I'll never forget.  If you ever have the chance, try out the north rim, you'll be impressed...plus, it's much less touristy, even through the lodge was booked solid you don't have all the international travelers that attend the south rim.

 

I'll post pics and vids a bit later and show some of the most amazing colors and scenery from my trip.

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The storms yesterday missed my local area. Here there was some rain (0.36") and some lightning most of that was off to the north of me. The over night low here at my house is the current reading of 55.6 and with that reading there is clear skies.

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

I've been on the road since early Sat morning as we took a trip up into northern Arizona.  Our first stop was Page, AZ where we visited multiple places that included Lake Powell and Horseshoe Bend.  It was pretty hot and dry with temps in the mid 90's so we focused on doing any hiking early in the morning on Sun, which was the day we went to Horseshoe Bend.  We spent most of Sat down by the lake and then later in the evening saw some scenic views.  You could say Page is a small town that is typically packed with tourists (mainly boaters) from all over the SW region of the U.S.  Tons of houseboats on that lake.  The water temp was 80F.  It was sad to see how low the water levels have gotten.

The most profound and exciting part of the trip was at the Grand Canyon North Rim.  It was quite the ride from Page south towards the North Rim.  We drove through vast, barren plateaus, to winding roads that lead along the towering cliffs of the Grand Canyon.  It's amazing to me how fast the landscape changes and temps drop once you get to the top of the Grand Canyon (8,500ft).  There is a profound difference compared to the south rim whereby the north rim is not only higher by 1,100 feet, but it also receives 15 feet of snow annually while the south only gets about 5 feet.  The north rim has a mature forest landscape filled with pine, evergreen and what looked like aspen trees.  I went wild mushroom picking and found a few big ones!  This was a trip I'll never forget.  If you ever have the chance, try out the north rim, you'll be impressed...plus, it's much less touristy, even through the lodge was booked solid you don't have all the international travelers that attend the south rim.

 

I'll post pics and vids a bit later and show some of the most amazing colors and scenery from my trip.

Tom.  My husband is from Tucson and we love to wander around Northern Az.  He’s tried to talk me into moving to Flagstaff but I can’t give up my Texas.  I told him I’d be glad to go on an extended vacation but my feet are planted in Texas up to my knees.  
I've been to the So rim but I very much want to go to the north rim.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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4 minutes ago, Andie said:

Tom.  My husband is from Tucson and we love to wander around Northern Az.  He’s tried to talk me into moving to Flagstaff but I can’t give up my Texas.  I told him I’d be glad to go on an extended vacation but my feet are planted in Texas up to my knees.  
I've been to the So rim but I very much want to go to the north rim.  

I highly recommend visiting the north rim if you ever get the chance.  Hey, there's nothing wrong with living in Texas...unless, of course, you want a cooler climate and mountain living that Flagstaff provides.

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Yeah, but even with mountain and cooler temps. You can’t beat our culture, people, everything we offer.  We’re just unique. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Alright, where shall I begin?  There were so many memorable moments and views on our trip that its hard to say which one was the best.  I'll start off by posting while at Horseshoe Bend.  The pictures don't do justice as I tried to capture the size and towering walls that were created by the Colorado River.  Quite a unique place to visit and one of the popular picturesque places in AZ that photographers use as their background.  In fact, there were a couple models doing some photo shoots while I was there.
 

Lake Powell was a very busy place to be as you can imagine on a busy holiday weekend.  It was packed with boaters cruising up and down the lake and the little resort town was buzzing with tourists.  Great to see how much business was generate for the local economy.  It was sad to see, however, how much the water level has dropped.  A staggering 145 ft to date since its highest point back in 1999.  The lake is only 33% full!  
 

On Sunday, we drove down to the North Rim of the Grand Canyon.  This was hands down the best part of the trip.  We saw so many epic views, wild animals, drank purified water from the natural water falls, saw Bison cross the street...it goes on and on.  The air was so fresh and pure from the smell of pine.  Hiking was a bit strenuous due to the thin air being over 1.5 miles high in elevation.  The highest point of the Grand Canyon is Imperial Point at an elevation of 8803 ft.  Outside temp was in the upper 70's during the day and somewhat chilly in the upper 40's just before sunrise.  The visibility was sorta obscured from Haze and on a clear day you can see over a 100 miles.    We stayed at the Grand Canyon Lodge Resort.  The last night we stayed at a cabin resort outside of the Grand Canyon Park located in the middle of a low lying meadow.  On Tuesday morning, we woke up to a temp in the mid 30's!  I couldn't believe how cold it was and had to put on the buttn warmers and flip the HEAT on inside the car.  We literally went from having the furnace on in the cabin, seat warmers turned on in the car around 7:00am...then by 8:00 or so, we had the A/C back on as we made the winding drive down back into the Paria Plateau adjacent to the towering Vermilion Cliffs (3,000ft vertical).  The cliffs were being lit by the perfect angle of the sun and the colorful reddish tint of the sandstone stood out.

All in all, a very satisfying trip up north and one I will forever remember.  I'll be honest, it almost felt like we were traveling up near Aspen, CO or somewhere in the Rockies.  I was very surprised to see so many evergreen and Pine since that is non existent in the south rim.  That was one of the biggest surprises I'd say from this road trip.

 

 

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Now THAT’S a mushroom !!!!!😳

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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