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September 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom
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I meant to post these images the other day when I was watching the local news.  You will see the Monsoon season has treated the valley quite well.  In fact, my town of Fountain Hills takes the #1 spot.

FB31F37C-5A67-45F4-BA52-5BD5E2E3E3FA.jpeg

 

The mountains have done quite well…

9B7BCE97-D690-4AEF-97EE-6C6040AA6194.jpeg

 

Meanwhile, the valley is under a Excessive Heat Watch for tomorrow as temps soar into the upper 100’s!  It doesn’t look like any Monsoon moisture is heading my way any time soon. 

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Many locals were hoping the Heat would be a distant memory for the rest of the year, but nature is saying "not so fast".  The Heat is back for the next week before it pulls back a bit later next week.  Signs of a cooler trend late next week.  I was hoping that tropical storm Olaf would make it up into the SW this week but models backed off that idea a few days ago.

 

[Key Messages]

 

 

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Here is a great example of why I believe the LRC tends to loose its "umpf" towards the tail end of its yearly cycle, esp in the months of Aug/Sept.  I think @Clinton posted a map that suggested a mid month cool down and overall a cooler month of Sept.  Well, we are approaching the middle of the month and its going to be a blast furnace for the S MW/Plains states for an extended period.

1442249180_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates5-dAvgT2MAnomC(3).gif

 

 

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What a great few days of weather around here.  Of course that now changes.  Heat expected to build back in for the next 3 days.  Friday is forecasted at 95-100 with hazy skies from smoke.  Hopefully dews stay lower.  Tomorrow is our school's homecoming activities.  Going to be hot with the High centered right over Central Nebraska.  Looking like next week things come back to normal or slightly below. 

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43 minutes ago, Tom said:

Here is a great example of why I believe the LRC tends to loose its "umpf" towards the tail end of its yearly cycle, esp in the months of Aug/Sept.  I think @Clinton posted a map that suggested a mid month cool down and overall a cooler month of Sept.  Well, we are approaching the middle of the month and its going to be a blast furnace for the S MW/Plains states for an extended period.

1442249180_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates5-dAvgT2MAnomC(3).gif

 

 

No doubt it kinda washes out a little bit but we have a little battle between the Euro and GFS as far as temps come the middle of next week.  The GFS keeps temps at or below average for most of us while the Euro heats it back up.  I think and hope the wetter cooler GFS will win out.

gfs_T2m_us_27.png

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

No doubt it kinda washes out a little bit but we have a little battle between the Euro and GFS as far as temps come the middle of next week.  The GFS keeps temps at or below average for most of us while the Euro heats it back up.  I think and hope the wetter cooler GFS will win out.

gfs_T2m_us_27.png

I hope so too.  But the GFS seems to enjoy advertising cool downs several days out, only to keep pushing them back.  Seems like the GFS always has a cool down 7-10 days out.  Hopefully it'll be right this time.  

 

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2 hours ago, Clinton said:

No doubt it kinda washes out a little bit but we have a little battle between the Euro and GFS as far as temps come the middle of next week.  The GFS keeps temps at or below average for most of us while the Euro heats it back up.  I think and hope the wetter cooler GFS will win out.

gfs_T2m_us_27.png

i agree that the LRC begins to lose its characteristics around the end of August. i think currently the LRC still has about 80% of this years pattern, by the end of the month its down to like 50% and it begins its "transition phase" into the new LRC pattern 

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1 hour ago, someweatherdude said:

I hope so too.  But the GFS seems to enjoy advertising cool downs several days out, only to keep pushing them back.  Seems like the GFS always has a cool down 7-10 days out.  Hopefully it'll be right this time.  

 

 

39 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

i agree that the LRC begins to lose its characteristics around the end of August. i think currently the LRC still has about 80% of this years pattern, by the end of the month its down to like 50% and it begins its "transition phase" into the new LRC pattern 

Hope the GFS gets it right this time.  I'm ready for a new pattern and hopefully one that treats KC better in the snow department.  We are less than 1 month away!

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50.4 this morning on my weather station. Coldest low since June 2nd.

Might hit 100 this Saturday, which would be something for mid September!

I'm seeing some early talk of winter forecasts from a couple of local mets, and they are referencing years where we were pretty dry for snowfall amounts, like less than 20" total.

Kinda expected given the 50" we had last winter.

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Well I have to admit when I'm wrong @Tom was correct as usual. Looks like we will be waiting until the 21 before we end the heat. Could this be a longer cycle developing or just Sept being more of a wild card?  It's going to be a hot weekend for football, 92 is the forecasted temp at kick-off for the Chiefs on Sunday.

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This Monsoon season has literally obliterated most of the states exceptional/extreme drought conditions.  I'm thrilled to see such a massive turnaround across this state.

Here is the drought map from June 8th...

1.png

 

Sept 7th...

2.png

 

This is just a gut feeling, but as I said way back in Spring, if this Monsoon season is any indication of the pattern that lies ahead, I could very well see storms digging into the SW this Autumn/Winter.   Just a feeling.

For reference, here's a link where you can compare drought maps from various weeks...

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Maps/CompareTwoWeeks.aspx

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Smoke has really affected the temps.  Yesterday the highs were 5 degrees lower than forecasted and it was wonderful in the low 80's.  Today was supposed to be 95, but now temps are being lowered to the upper 80's.  Saturday looks like less smoke and tanking dews.  Potential record highs on Saturday in the upper 90's to low 100's.  

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Are we going to be tracking a storm around the Autumnal Equinox???  You know how I admire when nature lines up wx patterns/storms to specific calendar dates.  Anyway, at this range, the models are suggesting what should be one of the strongest early season storm systems to target the PAC NW/N Rockies later this month and dump some generous mountain snows.  There should be a series of them lining up.  What a way to kick off Autumn for those folks and this is just the beginning.

Both the GEFS/EPS this potential active pattern to fire up across the northern U.S. post 17th/18th that will lead us into the closing week of Sept where I'm anticipating a large pool of cold air to dump across the Plains states.  This could be the seasons 1st widespread frosts if all works out for those in the central/northern plains and W GL's post 25th.  

3.png

 

The 0z EPS is showing the reversal in the pressure pattern across the NE PAC later in Week 2.  The low pressures are the main reason why we are seeing the central U.S. heat to persist throughout the middle part of the month as storms pump that ridge.  How long does this last?  I think by the last week of the month it does flip around.  Check out the animation below as it illustrates how it is lining up with some of the LR clues I'm seeing.  Remember these maps???

Look at the blossoming warming at 10mb near the NE PAC/Alaska...fast forward those dates in very late Aug/early Sept about 3-4 weeks and it brings us towards the period shown below.

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

2137585293_14-kmEPSGlobalNorthAmericaMSLPAnomaly.gif

 

 

 

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Just had our homecoming parade. I got to drive a 66 Mustang convertible with royalty candidates which was a lot of fun. It is definitely hot. 87 feels like 92 with a 67 dew and no wind. Going to be a hot football game tonight for sure. Maybe next week Fall will arrive and possibly stick around. 

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HOT HOT HOT...going to be a toasty weekend in KC. We are drying out again and will need for that front to produce on Tuesday evening into Wednesday. I thought we see a cooler week next week but it looks like above average temps through next weekend and possible through the 23rd according to the GFS temp trends. The GFS does show quite the cool down that Tom mentioned in his long range thoughts. However, the GFS also had it much cooler just a few days ago for right around Sept. 14th or so...backed off since. 

 

The LRC based Sept. forecast for this last week and into the this weekend looks pretty darn good. The forecast was not so good the first 5 days as it missed on forecast highs on some of those days and it missed the 2-5 inches of rain last Friday into Saturday. (did not have any rain in the forecast)

 

Now, it shows a cool down for next week which that appears its going to be wrong if the GFS is right. The big part of the Sept. forecast is for temps to be 10-20 degrees below average from Sept. 20th to the 30th. 9 straight days with temps 65-72 with a chance of rain every day here in KC. That's hard to do in Sept...we'll see. 

 

GO CHIEFS!!

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^^ yeah GFS was abysmal on temps. 12Z yday had 109 in Lincoln. 106 in OMA and 99F in DSM. High in DSM was 91F. GFS seems to have had a feedback issue this summer with over forecasting temps in the short range.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Rivers are still very low here. It'll take one hell of a Winter to reverse how damaging the past 12 months have been.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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I went out on a hike around 7:00am yesterday morning.  Sky conditions were  clear but hazy and the temp/humidity (82F/70F) was the only factor impeding my strength.  It was a local trail called Sunrise Trail with a 1,100 ft elevation climb and that climb starts right away.  Thankfully, there was a nice NE breeze that developed and blew in perfectly between the valleys of the hills.  This was a 2.5 round trip hike but I didn’t go to the top (4.0 miles R/T) this time as it was getting to hot and I didn’t eat prior to bc this was intended to be a fasted workout/hike.   
 

In the video below, I’m facing SW from the 1st scenic view on the trail which is 1.2 miles up.  If you go another 0.8 miles you’ll be at the top but I didn’t go this time.  The view is of the valley of PHX and primarily seeing Scottsdale which is on the other side of the mountain side I climbed that separates the two cities of Fountain Hills and Scottsdale.  If you look closely, you’ll see how green the vegetation is throughout the valley.  When I first got here a couple weeks ago, I was pleasantly surprised to see how wonderfully green everything looked.  It’s been years since I’ve seen it so pretty.  Not to mention, but there is a tremendous amount of butterflies, mouths, insects and yes, mosquitoes!  It’s like the valley is alive.  One local said, some cactus’s are blooming several times this year which is unheard of.  Very interesting.
 

 

C2549095-C451-47B6-A9CF-1BEE167D4B62.jpeg

 

You can see Camelback mountain on the right side of this photo...

 

79CD228A-12D0-436C-AA57-2772BAFECC57.jpeg

 

 

B4C894F5-BFDD-47D8-99DD-EFF3CFA2AFE8.jpeg

The trail continued up the side of the mountain on the trail you see to the left here...

4F8A177F-EE8E-4174-8659-81FD39CB4E4B.jpeg

 

You can really get a scope of how expansive the east side is of the  "valley of the sun".  Camelback Mountain is like the separation point of the valley. 

This photo is the east facing side which shows 4 peaks on the left and Fountain Hills...

 

 

4364ED4E-755C-45D8-AE15-809630B36346.jpeg

 

 

 

 

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Saturday was expected to be the hottest day of the week, in the 90s across the state.¬† However, the sun was dimmed due to smoke and clouds, so Cedar Rapids was only able to reach 86¬ļ.

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season snowfall: 27.1"

 

'20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Another warm one on deck for today as the NFL season kicks off. The smoke has kept temps down about 4 to 5 degrees below forecast. Looks like the tropical system targeting the Louisiana coast mid week may chew up most of the moisture in my area. Rain chances are decreasing as are precip totals. Hopefully the tropical system doesn't strengthen to much and disrupt recovery efforts. Around here things look to remain dry for the next 10 days. 

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23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Another warm one on deck for today as the NFL season kicks off. The smoke has kept temps down about 4 to 5 degrees below forecast. Looks like the tropical system targeting the Louisiana coast mid week may chew up most of the moisture in my area. Rain chances are decreasing as are precip totals. Hopefully the tropical system doesn't strengthen to much and disrupt recovery efforts. Around here things look to remain dry for the next 10 days. 

As a Texans fan, the NFL season has been cancelled.

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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21 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^ yeah GFS was abysmal on temps. 12Z yday had 109 in Lincoln. 106 in OMA and 99F in DSM. High in DSM was 91F. GFS seems to have had a feedback issue this summer with over forecasting temps in the short range.

I agree. It was god awful so many times this summer. I still remember when it had like a week straight of 100+ temps and multiple days of 110+ and we never hit 100 once. It's not even off by 5 degrees or less, usually 10+ degrees off.

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I agree. It was god awful so many times this summer. I still remember when it had like a week straight of 100+ temps and multiple days of 110+ and we never hit 100 once. It's not even off by 5 degrees or less, usually 10+ degrees off.

There's no ocean to cool things off over there.

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Rainfall totals expected from NWS in Houston from Nicholas--

 

ImageFrom the 12Z Euro--  last time I saw totals this high were in Harvey when totals over 40" were common, if Nicholas slows early than forecasted - the Euro might be onto something-- index (50).png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Nicholas has came to a crawl.  7pm update.

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H

This likely doesn't bode well at night time for intensification if the SW shear relaxes. Certainly not good with more likelihood of increased rainfall totals in RGV and Brownsville area.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On 9/11/2021 at 5:14 PM, Grizzcoat said:

^^ yeah GFS was abysmal on temps. 12Z yday had 109 in Lincoln. 106 in OMA and 99F in DSM. High in DSM was 91F. GFS seems to have had a feedback issue this summer with over forecasting temps in the short range.

It "only" hit 95 in Lincoln compared to that 109. If GFS was correct all summer 1936 would've been put to shame. Don't get me wrong though 95 is still way too hot for a husker game lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"¬† ¬†2018-19: 55.5"¬† ¬†2019-20: 17.6"¬† ¬†2020-21: 49.4"¬† ¬†2021-22: 5.1"¬†ūü§ģ

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

It "only" hit 95 in Lincoln compared to that 109. If GFS was correct all summer 1936 would've been put to shame. Don't get me wrong though 95 is still way too hot for a husker game lol. 

GFS did the same thing last summer. Rush out a new model, this is what you get.

Can't wait for it to forecast MQT levels of snow for the 3rd straight year in the plains!

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>1" snowfalls at KFAR in 2021-22: 11/11-12 (1.0"), 11/13 (1.8"), 12/2 (1.0"), 12/4-5 (4.8"), 12/21 (3.1"), 12/25 (3.2"), 12/26-27 (8.6"), 12/28 (2.9"), 1/4-5 (3.2"), 1/14 (2.7"), 1/22 (2.8"),

 

Total 2021-22 snowfall at KFAR: 51.7"                                                  Coldest Minimum: -28*F (1/1, 1/7)

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Heating up to near 110F today as the Excessive Heat warning continues for one more day.  The forecast is for 109F (109F is the record for the day)...I say, might as well hit or beat it!

On another note, as we count down the days towards the Autumnal Equinox, the models are all over the place handling the energy that is to dive into the PAC NW/N Rockies later this weekend.  About a week ago I posted a map off the EPS sniffing out some snow chances for the Rockies.  It's now beginning to look a lot like "Christmas"...sorry, meant to say like "Winter"...I'm getting ahead of myself here thinking of cooler and snowier thoughts while I bake out here in the desert SW.  In any event, the 0z EPS is laying down the seasons first snowfall for the CO Rockies and points nearby.

1.png

 

 

 

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I'm officially starting to dig into the LR pattern and focus in on what the new LRC may look like in early Oct.  Using the Bearing Sea Rule as guidance, among other LR tools I use, we are entering that time of year whereby I can shuffle through the data and try to forecast some ideas.  This may be a long post so I'll try to keep it short.

With that being said, I look west across the  W PAC to get some insight on the wx pattern and what is happening out that way to predict what could occur for our Sub and North America.  Today, my intuition suggested to look out towards East Asia for what was once a major Typoon called Chanthu.  What is fascinating about this storm system is it literally gets blocked up just off the coast of China and spins for days.  You don't see that quite often.  Check out the map below and then follow where it tracks over the coming days.  As we end this month of Sept, I'm expecting a hard cutter around the 25th/26th that will tug down some of the seasons coldest air and the likelihood of widespread Frosts/Freezes up north and possibly down into the central Plains.

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_fh-72-144.gif

 

Keeping this storm in mind, I believe this system will be the one that marks the beginning of the new LRC pattern post 7th/8th of Oct.  In the animation below, the 0z EPS and GEFS, both suggest this storm to take a track right through the Aleutian Islands.  This is a classic track and example of a central CONUS cutter.  Notice the blocking up over the top of this storm which is indicative of setting up a Canada HP pattern in the aforementioned period in early October.  As always, I love it when storms form on specific dates and this potential Aleutian Storm hits the islands on..."The Autumnal Equinox"....9/22

764250722_14-kmEPSGlobalNorthPacificMSLPAnomaly.gif

 

00z GEFS....

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_39.png

 

 

 

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In a very heavy shower yesterday I recorded 0.34" of rain. But at the airport they only had 0.06" of rain fall. This morning just the opposite. GRR reported 0.08" and here at my house just 0.01" The overnight low was 61 both here and at GRR. At this time it is cloudy with a light mist and 62 here.

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