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September 2021 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Are we going to be tracking a storm around the Autumnal Equinox???  You know how I admire when nature lines up wx patterns/storms to specific calendar dates.  Anyway, at this range, the models are suggesting what should be one of the strongest early season storm systems to target the PAC NW/N Rockies later this month and dump some generous mountain snows.  There should be a series of them lining up.  What a way to kick off Autumn for those folks and this is just the beginning.

Both the GEFS/EPS this potential active pattern to fire up across the northern U.S. post 17th/18th that will lead us into the closing week of Sept where I'm anticipating a large pool of cold air to dump across the Plains states.  This could be the seasons 1st widespread frosts if all works out for those in the central/northern plains and W GL's post 25th.  

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The 0z EPS is showing the reversal in the pressure pattern across the NE PAC later in Week 2.  The low pressures are the main reason why we are seeing the central U.S. heat to persist throughout the middle part of the month as storms pump that ridge.  How long does this last?  I think by the last week of the month it does flip around.  Check out the animation below as it illustrates how it is lining up with some of the LR clues I'm seeing.  Remember these maps???

Look at the blossoming warming at 10mb near the NE PAC/Alaska...fast forward those dates in very late Aug/early Sept about 3-4 weeks and it brings us towards the period shown below.

 

Northern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

 

2137585293_14-kmEPSGlobalNorthAmericaMSLPAnomaly.gif

 

 

 

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Just had our homecoming parade. I got to drive a 66 Mustang convertible with royalty candidates which was a lot of fun. It is definitely hot. 87 feels like 92 with a 67 dew and no wind. Going to be a hot football game tonight for sure. Maybe next week Fall will arrive and possibly stick around. 

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HOT HOT HOT...going to be a toasty weekend in KC. We are drying out again and will need for that front to produce on Tuesday evening into Wednesday. I thought we see a cooler week next week but it looks like above average temps through next weekend and possible through the 23rd according to the GFS temp trends. The GFS does show quite the cool down that Tom mentioned in his long range thoughts. However, the GFS also had it much cooler just a few days ago for right around Sept. 14th or so...backed off since. 

 

The LRC based Sept. forecast for this last week and into the this weekend looks pretty darn good. The forecast was not so good the first 5 days as it missed on forecast highs on some of those days and it missed the 2-5 inches of rain last Friday into Saturday. (did not have any rain in the forecast)

 

Now, it shows a cool down for next week which that appears its going to be wrong if the GFS is right. The big part of the Sept. forecast is for temps to be 10-20 degrees below average from Sept. 20th to the 30th. 9 straight days with temps 65-72 with a chance of rain every day here in KC. That's hard to do in Sept...we'll see. 

 

GO CHIEFS!!

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^^ yeah GFS was abysmal on temps. 12Z yday had 109 in Lincoln. 106 in OMA and 99F in DSM. High in DSM was 91F. GFS seems to have had a feedback issue this summer with over forecasting temps in the short range.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I went out on a hike around 7:00am yesterday morning.  Sky conditions were  clear but hazy and the temp/humidity (82F/70F) was the only factor impeding my strength.  It was a local trail called Sunrise Trail with a 1,100 ft elevation climb and that climb starts right away.  Thankfully, there was a nice NE breeze that developed and blew in perfectly between the valleys of the hills.  This was a 2.5 round trip hike but I didn’t go to the top (4.0 miles R/T) this time as it was getting to hot and I didn’t eat prior to bc this was intended to be a fasted workout/hike.   
 

In the video below, I’m facing SW from the 1st scenic view on the trail which is 1.2 miles up.  If you go another 0.8 miles you’ll be at the top but I didn’t go this time.  The view is of the valley of PHX and primarily seeing Scottsdale which is on the other side of the mountain side I climbed that separates the two cities of Fountain Hills and Scottsdale.  If you look closely, you’ll see how green the vegetation is throughout the valley.  When I first got here a couple weeks ago, I was pleasantly surprised to see how wonderfully green everything looked.  It’s been years since I’ve seen it so pretty.  Not to mention, but there is a tremendous amount of butterflies, mouths, insects and yes, mosquitoes!  It’s like the valley is alive.  One local said, some cactus’s are blooming several times this year which is unheard of.  Very interesting.
 

 

C2549095-C451-47B6-A9CF-1BEE167D4B62.jpeg

 

You can see Camelback mountain on the right side of this photo...

 

79CD228A-12D0-436C-AA57-2772BAFECC57.jpeg

 

 

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The trail continued up the side of the mountain on the trail you see to the left here...

4F8A177F-EE8E-4174-8659-81FD39CB4E4B.jpeg

 

You can really get a scope of how expansive the east side is of the  "valley of the sun".  Camelback Mountain is like the separation point of the valley. 

This photo is the east facing side which shows 4 peaks on the left and Fountain Hills...

 

 

4364ED4E-755C-45D8-AE15-809630B36346.jpeg

 

 

 

 

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Saturday was expected to be the hottest day of the week, in the 90s across the state.  However, the sun was dimmed due to smoke and clouds, so Cedar Rapids was only able to reach 86º.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Another warm one on deck for today as the NFL season kicks off. The smoke has kept temps down about 4 to 5 degrees below forecast. Looks like the tropical system targeting the Louisiana coast mid week may chew up most of the moisture in my area. Rain chances are decreasing as are precip totals. Hopefully the tropical system doesn't strengthen to much and disrupt recovery efforts. Around here things look to remain dry for the next 10 days. 

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23 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Another warm one on deck for today as the NFL season kicks off. The smoke has kept temps down about 4 to 5 degrees below forecast. Looks like the tropical system targeting the Louisiana coast mid week may chew up most of the moisture in my area. Rain chances are decreasing as are precip totals. Hopefully the tropical system doesn't strengthen to much and disrupt recovery efforts. Around here things look to remain dry for the next 10 days. 

As a Texans fan, the NFL season has been cancelled.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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21 hours ago, Grizzcoat said:

^^ yeah GFS was abysmal on temps. 12Z yday had 109 in Lincoln. 106 in OMA and 99F in DSM. High in DSM was 91F. GFS seems to have had a feedback issue this summer with over forecasting temps in the short range.

I agree. It was god awful so many times this summer. I still remember when it had like a week straight of 100+ temps and multiple days of 110+ and we never hit 100 once. It's not even off by 5 degrees or less, usually 10+ degrees off.

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1 hour ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

I agree. It was god awful so many times this summer. I still remember when it had like a week straight of 100+ temps and multiple days of 110+ and we never hit 100 once. It's not even off by 5 degrees or less, usually 10+ degrees off.

There's no ocean to cool things off over there.

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Rainfall totals expected from NWS in Houston from Nicholas--

 

ImageFrom the 12Z Euro--  last time I saw totals this high were in Harvey when totals over 40" were common, if Nicholas slows early than forecasted - the Euro might be onto something-- index (50).png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Nicholas has came to a crawl.  7pm update.

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H

This likely doesn't bode well at night time for intensification if the SW shear relaxes. Certainly not good with more likelihood of increased rainfall totals in RGV and Brownsville area.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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On 9/11/2021 at 5:14 PM, Grizzcoat said:

^^ yeah GFS was abysmal on temps. 12Z yday had 109 in Lincoln. 106 in OMA and 99F in DSM. High in DSM was 91F. GFS seems to have had a feedback issue this summer with over forecasting temps in the short range.

It "only" hit 95 in Lincoln compared to that 109. If GFS was correct all summer 1936 would've been put to shame. Don't get me wrong though 95 is still way too hot for a husker game lol. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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1 hour ago, snowstorm83 said:

It "only" hit 95 in Lincoln compared to that 109. If GFS was correct all summer 1936 would've been put to shame. Don't get me wrong though 95 is still way too hot for a husker game lol. 

GFS did the same thing last summer. Rush out a new model, this is what you get.

Can't wait for it to forecast MQT levels of snow for the 3rd straight year in the plains!

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Heating up to near 110F today as the Excessive Heat warning continues for one more day.  The forecast is for 109F (109F is the record for the day)...I say, might as well hit or beat it!

On another note, as we count down the days towards the Autumnal Equinox, the models are all over the place handling the energy that is to dive into the PAC NW/N Rockies later this weekend.  About a week ago I posted a map off the EPS sniffing out some snow chances for the Rockies.  It's now beginning to look a lot like "Christmas"...sorry, meant to say like "Winter"...I'm getting ahead of myself here thinking of cooler and snowier thoughts while I bake out here in the desert SW.  In any event, the 0z EPS is laying down the seasons first snowfall for the CO Rockies and points nearby.

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I'm officially starting to dig into the LR pattern and focus in on what the new LRC may look like in early Oct.  Using the Bearing Sea Rule as guidance, among other LR tools I use, we are entering that time of year whereby I can shuffle through the data and try to forecast some ideas.  This may be a long post so I'll try to keep it short.

With that being said, I look west across the  W PAC to get some insight on the wx pattern and what is happening out that way to predict what could occur for our Sub and North America.  Today, my intuition suggested to look out towards East Asia for what was once a major Typoon called Chanthu.  What is fascinating about this storm system is it literally gets blocked up just off the coast of China and spins for days.  You don't see that quite often.  Check out the map below and then follow where it tracks over the coming days.  As we end this month of Sept, I'm expecting a hard cutter around the 25th/26th that will tug down some of the seasons coldest air and the likelihood of widespread Frosts/Freezes up north and possibly down into the central Plains.

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_fh-72-144.gif

 

Keeping this storm in mind, I believe this system will be the one that marks the beginning of the new LRC pattern post 7th/8th of Oct.  In the animation below, the 0z EPS and GEFS, both suggest this storm to take a track right through the Aleutian Islands.  This is a classic track and example of a central CONUS cutter.  Notice the blocking up over the top of this storm which is indicative of setting up a Canada HP pattern in the aforementioned period in early October.  As always, I love it when storms form on specific dates and this potential Aleutian Storm hits the islands on..."The Autumnal Equinox"....9/22

764250722_14-kmEPSGlobalNorthPacificMSLPAnomaly.gif

 

00z GEFS....

gfs-ens_mslpaNorm_npac_39.png

 

 

 

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In a very heavy shower yesterday I recorded 0.34" of rain. But at the airport they only had 0.06" of rain fall. This morning just the opposite. GRR reported 0.08" and here at my house just 0.01" The overnight low was 61 both here and at GRR. At this time it is cloudy with a light mist and 62 here.

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Talking 90 by the end of this upcoming weekend.   I'm guessing that's rare for Mid- late September around here.  Eventually fall has to hit and stay.  But not looking like it anytime soon.  

Record high temps for GR are 91 and 90 for Sept 19th and 20th.  

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27 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Talking 90 by the end of this upcoming weekend.   I'm guessing that's rare for Mid- late September around here.  Eventually fall has to hit and stay.  But not looking like it anytime soon.  

Record high temps for GR are 91 and 90 for Sept 19th and 20th.  

Yeah, how many straight years has it been now where there's been unseasonable warmth around the equinox? Rather annoying. Thankfully here, it'll only manifest itself as one day well into the 80s and two days near 80 before toning it down.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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18 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Yeah, how many straight years has it been now where there's been unseasonable warmth around the equinox? Rather annoying. Thankfully here, it'll only manifest itself as one day well into the 80s and two days near 80 before toning it down.

The longer the snow in Omaha is delayed the better.

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