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September 2021 Observations and Discussion


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Talking 90 by the end of this upcoming weekend.   I'm guessing that's rare for Mid- late September around here.  Eventually fall has to hit and stay.  But not looking like it anytime soon.  

Record high temps for GR are 91 and 90 for Sept 19th and 20th.  

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27 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Talking 90 by the end of this upcoming weekend.   I'm guessing that's rare for Mid- late September around here.  Eventually fall has to hit and stay.  But not looking like it anytime soon.  

Record high temps for GR are 91 and 90 for Sept 19th and 20th.  

Yeah, how many straight years has it been now where there's been unseasonable warmth around the equinox? Rather annoying. Thankfully here, it'll only manifest itself as one day well into the 80s and two days near 80 before toning it down.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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18 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

Yeah, how many straight years has it been now where there's been unseasonable warmth around the equinox? Rather annoying. Thankfully here, it'll only manifest itself as one day well into the 80s and two days near 80 before toning it down.

The longer the snow in Omaha is delayed the better.

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20 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

The longer the snow in Omaha is delayed the better.

Pretty sure he has you blocked. You can quit trolling now.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Beautiful.

KMVX - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 12_58 PM.png

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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1 hour ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Looks like the rain has started there.

It's about to. The intensity has died down which kinda sucks. But it hit areas in a worse drought harder so I'm fine with that.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Well, crap!! The rain chances are dwindling for KC tomorrow evening, maybe a cooler day Wednesday, but right back into the oven Thursday through Tuesday with no rain chances. Maybe some stronger cold fronts later next week but the GFS has it brief and warming right back up....not much precip. in the next 16 days. I think Tom posted a map about 3 weeks ago showing  a very warm fall. Still seeing that Tom?

Never had a doubt in that Chiefs game...lol

 

Cleveland is going to be there in January. Good football team. 

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On 8/28/2021 at 3:58 PM, Clinton said:

This is not what anybody in Louisiana wanted to see at the end of the 12z GFS but it is exactly what the pattern has in store. Louisiana is in for a rough road and will need a lot of help.

image.thumb.png.18a6140933d5fdd77371abcbe0697e37.png

Wow, the GFS really nailed this over two weeks out!

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6 minutes ago, earthandturf said:

Wow, the GFS really nailed this over two weeks out!

Quite an amazing job the GFS did with this system. I posted this map then because it lined up with the LRC, which is very useful predicting large weather events.

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I'm getting a bit more excited about the storm system showing up on Autumnal Equinox.  The battle of the seasons will be in full blown display across the center of the nation.  This could be turning into quite the system.  Needless to say, I think many of you will be dusting off those colder wx clothing from the closet!

0z Euro showing the dividing line between the two seasons as we welcome in Autumn...

1.png

 

Brrrr....Frosty nights???

2.png

 

The pattern keeps on giving for those up north as multiple systems continue to dump much welcomed precip...

3.png

 

Now, here is where things could get interesting for our members way up north across the Northwoods of MN.  I remember talking about the chance that this year may have the shortest time between "last flake and 1st flake".  Didn't you guys get some snow back in very late May?  I don't remember exactly but I do remember talking about it.  Anyway, while on the topic of snow, both the EPS/GEFS are sniffing something out for ya'll up there.

4.png

 

Who's ready for tracking autumn storms???  I got this feeling there will be some powerhouse systems come October.  I have this vision of seeing possible Octo-bombs, esp with the big blocking signal showing up near Greenland and off the W/SW U.S. coast next month.

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13 minutes ago, Tom said:

Who's ready for tracking autumn storms???  I got this feeling there will be some powerhouse systems come October.  I have this vision of seeing possible Octo-bombs, esp with the big blocking signal showing up near Greenland and off the W/SW U.S. coast next month.

I want nothing more than to replicate the October storm that dumped 2' in parts of ND in 2019.

Seems like October snow is more supported all throughout the plains with the changing climate. 

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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The JMA seasonal came in yesterday and I'll post some maps either later today or tomorrow.  Some good blocking showing up and an interesting flip during the month of Nov.  Our 1st glimpse at met Winter is teasing me with a bonafide Fast start to Winter.

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GFS and Euro are both hinting at potential wintry mischief to my west and north (100 miles in each direction) next week.

One of them even gives the McGregor, ND area 6". I'll let you guess which model that is.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

GFS and Euro are both hinting at potential wintry mischief to my west and north (100 miles in each direction) next week.

One of them even gives the McGregor, ND area 6". I'll let you guess which model that is.

We love the Canadian 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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If the 0z Euro is right, nature is wasting no time to usher in Autumnal air on the day of the Autumnal Equinox.  It will certainly look and feel like it across the Upper MW and Plains states with strong NW winds howling and chilly daytime highs.  This system has been on my calendar and its shaping up like it could deliver a hefty amount of precip and take on a classic autumnal look.

5.png

 

6.png

 

Loads of precip...

8.png

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I had surprise thunderstorm roll through early this morning and I picked up a half inch of much needed rain. The next 2 days look nice before the heat builds back in for the weekend. I can't wait for the system Tom showed above to get here and bring in the fall temps and more rainfall.

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The overnight low both here and officially at GRR was 57. Here at my house there was no rain yesterday. With the clouds and the wind most of yesterday was rather comfortable. I cut the grass and it was not bad out at all and by the time I went for my walk at 7 PM there were some people with light jackets on as the wind did feel cool by that time. At this time it is sunny and 63 here. I had to take a quick trip up to Bay City on Monday I managed to miss most of the rain both up there and back. It was cloudy all the way there and all the way back it did rain hard in Bay City and the streets were flooded. There is some color on the trees along M 46 but none as you get close to Bay City. 

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Certified "if only it weren't September" moment

image.png.b8bcb06ffa34058f99203c9794b93db6.png

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Des Moines NWS with a fun little write up regarding the possible last real surge of hot weather this year and the potent Autumn front/cyclone next week.

This weekend and into early next week our weather will be
dominated by a large, deep-layer thermal ridge and robust warm air
advection regime building across the region. This will bring
temperatures all the way up to around 90 degrees on Sunday
afternoon, quite possibly the last time we could see that mark
reached this year. Monday will be almost as warm, with highs in
the upper 80s or so. However, this last thrust of summer weather
will be relatively short lived, as autumn senses its time has come
and sends a shot across the bow shortly thereafter. This will come
in the form of a large, deep cyclone crossing the Rockies around
Monday night and deepening as it swings across the High Plains and
Midwest toward the middle of next week. Long-range models depict a
seasonally large and expanding precipitation field stretching
along the associated surface cold front and wrapping around into
the core of the cyclone. There are some timing differences among
the various solutions as one would expect, but right now it
appears the cold front and associated showers/storms would cross
our area around Tuesday/Tuesday night, with the core of the low
lifting slowly northeastward from Nebraska into Minnesota roughly
around Wednesday. After the initial round of POPs along the front,
the biggest sensible change from this system will be notably
cooler weather toward the middle of the week, with highs probably
in the 60s or 70s next Wednesday and Thursday.
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The idea of the seasons 1st frosts up north and possibly into parts of the MW/Plains are still showing up in the modeling later next week.  I'm still thinking that post 25th there could be a more significant CF that is centered farther east across the GL's region.

1140166161_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates2-mTemperatureAnom(3).gif

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The JMA weeklies are in and provide us some insight to what we can potentially expect for the 1st couple weeks of the new LRC in October.  First off, the model is beginning to hint at a cooler eastern CONUS for the last week of the month.

Week 2...

2.png

 

Temp/Precip... @Andie  @OKwx2k4 there is your long awaited cool down for the south and into parts of the MW/OHV/GL's.  Take a peak at the large cold pool in Russia and AN precip.  Big clue for Dr. Cohen's SAI theory to come into play this year.  

Y202109.D1512_gl2.png

 

Thankfully, the Hurricane threat in the GOM looks to shut down and primarily targeting the EC region.

 

Y202109.D1512_gl0.png

 

Week 3-4...some interesting clues begin dialing up as I see the model is sorta sniffing out a Bearing Sea trough.  Initially, I suspect the month of October to begin with ridging near the Aleutians but by mid/late month a deeper trough could develop and that will IMO likely be dominant feature for this year's LRC.

 

3.png

 

 

Temp/Precip...the general idea of a cooler eastern CONUS, warm middle U.S. and cooler PAC NW/Inter-mountain West as troughs will begin to inundate the western CONUS.  Russia remains cold and snowy.

Y202109.D1512_gl2.png

 

 

Y202109.D1512_gl0.png

 

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@Beltrami Island How are the fall colors looking up there? Considering going up for photography purposes tomorrow.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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FGF is still being rather nonchalant with the major pattern change next week.

Quote
The return to rainshowers with some thunder early is likely from
later Mon/Mon night into Tue as the upstream trough possibly turns
into closed/cutoff low near the forecast area. Current guidance
backs off on this though, with a trend toward more of an open,
albeit, deep wave that would tend to move things along faster. GEFS
plumes are considerably lower than yesterday`s run with rain doses,
pegging the area with less than an inch of total rainfall.

A cooling trend should kick in from the middle of next week and
beyond.

Also, I brought back a classic for my avatar.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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GFS and Euro both have weakened next week's low, and consequentially moved it north. Less rain and coolness for me.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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16 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

@Beltrami Island How are the fall colors looking up there? Considering going up for photography purposes tomorrow.

It's definitely started and things maybe a little early through the season due to the drought. Some trees have been dropping leaves early as well, presumably from drought. Still majority full green so far though. 

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Happy Friday!  The countdown to astronomical Autumn continues as we only have a few more days of Summer left and it will feel like it back home today.  Upper 80's are in the forecast for ORD as late season warmth pokes out ahead of a CF straddling the northern Sub.  There may be one more day of late season warmth early next week before the pattern really takes a turn and will feel like Autumn.  Low and Behold, mother nature is going to welcome Autumn right on cue with a strong CF sweeping through the center of the nation.

0z Euro morning lows on 9/22...

1.png

 

2.png

 

As the sun sets way up north, I'm inclined to believe the first bits of info on the developing cyclical pattern is evolving.  I can't help but notice the strategic blocking patterns that suddenly blossom on 9/22 and the days ahead to close out the month.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_20.png

I've been studying the data coming in from the various models to get some insight on what we may be seeing in the weeks and months ahead.  This morning, I "saw" something in the 500mb pattern that I've seen numerous times while combing through data.  Ironically, it matches what the CFSv2 and other climate models are suggesting for this Autumn/Winter.

By late month, notice the corridor that develops from AK and through W Canada into the our Sub...a massive West-Based Greenland Block/SW Ridge will ultimately set up an expansive trough into our Sub.

ecmwf-ens_z500a_namer_10.png  

For the record, as we get closer in time, the CFSv2 is seeing the Greenland block develop more epansively in the data.  If you look out ahead into mid/late winter it looses it.  This was a problem last year I recall vividly when not only this model, but you can also say that all of the others missed on the blocking.  

Can you see what I see?  It's strikingly similar....nature provides clues and this is one of them IMO...

1.gif

With that being said, it is looking quite cool for the eastern Sub to close out the month...Who's ready for fall-like weather???  Full disclosure, I'm ready for those cool and crisp mornings while sipping on my morning coffee...

729846509_14-kmEPSGlobalNorthAmerica5-dAvgT2MAnomC.gif

 

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20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Euro and GFS do offer some hope for rain for many of us.  We really good use a good widespread soaking before the leaves begin to change color in a few weeks.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

My neighbor sent me a picture of my lawn and it looked parched with no need to order a cut (which is fine by me).  I think once we get towards the later parts of the month into Oct things will start to get active.

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First off there is a new look to the CPC's long range guess maps. Now there is now a back off on how warm it looks to get early next week and then there looks to be a major cool down. The average highs/lows for the next week start out today at 73.7/52.6 and fall to 70.7/49.8 by next Friday. The overnight low here both at my house and at GRR was 57. At this time with sunny skies it is 64.

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Currently at 70 but rain and scattered storms are about to move in with the front. Temps should hold in the 70s today.

One more gasp of summer warmth sun-mon before Autumn gets dropped on us starting Tuesday with 60s for highs! My extended has nothing warmer than low 70s thru Oct 1st.

 

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