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September 2021 Observations and Discussion


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Models have backed way off on next week's cooldown. I'll probably have one day of highs in the low 60s then I'll head back on up.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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0z Euro cuts off the energy over the GL's region later next week on the Autumnal Equinox and dumps a hefty amount of precip.  It appears that this may be a trend according to what I'm seeing in the ensembles.  Big time blocking is doing its dirty work.

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Not only that, but cooler trends continue to favor the eastern Sub as the North American pattern amplifies..

247394134_14-kmEPSGlobalUnitedStates5-dAvgT2MAnomC(4).gif

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A little weather history for Grand Rapids. In the last 70 years there has been 13 years when the first 32° low happened in the September. Also since 1950 there have been 39 Septembers when the last 80 day happened in September in fact the average last 80 day in that time was September 29th with a range of September 4th 1977 to November 1st 1950. Both 2020 and 2019 had their last 80 day in September. Bottom line is that for the most part days in the 80’s with become less frequent and there is not a chance of our fist frost. If you expand the dates going back to 1893 the average first 32 low happens in mid October and the range has been from September 3 1946 with the latest being November 14,1918. And that was odd because the earliest last 80 day was August 28th 1918. 

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I enjoyed yesterday's surprisingly strong storms that rolled in through the valley from the south.  It brought some welcomed precip across the valley that generally amounted to .25-.40 of rain.  Things have dried out a bit over here so that was nice to see.  PHX officially recorded .11" of rain and the result was an end to the streak of 100's at Sky Harbor as the airport topped out at 98F.  The storms whipped up a lot of dust and you could taste it in the air.  It was quite the sandstorm to be honest as the gusty winds were swirling in my complex.

 

 

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We'll be tracking our seasons strongest Autumnal CF right on que....it's like a wall of cool air will spill into the region.  Imagine tracking something with this type of vigor in the Winter...boy, I'd like to see these fronts as we roll into the early part of Winter around the holidays.  How about you?

nam3km_T2m_ncus_fh38-60.gif

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While I'm looking forward to the first fall cold front of the season things are really drying out. The GFS keeps pushing the moisture east tomorrow night, the Euro is a little more encouraging. Both models keep things mostly dry all the way to Oct.

 

image.thumb.png.7a64be267089ea9a9530eb6f29088804.png

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4 hours ago, Tom said:

We'll be tracking our seasons strongest Autumnal CF right on que....it's like a wall of cool air will spill into the region.  Imagine tracking something with this type of vigor in the Winter...boy, I'd like to see these fronts as we roll into the early part of Winter around the holidays.  How about you?

nam3km_T2m_ncus_fh38-60.gif

I'm beyond excited. Those 50s for however long will feel amazing. It'll be like being woke up and refreshed. :)

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5 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

North Dakota has a civil emergency alert. 

 

image.png.588386e8ee111eebaea52bf8d262382c.png

 

bd40c558b5a4f586a14d4c87cf5c703af31c1598

Pffft, they issue those for every silver alert here, which is about once a month. It's kinda annoying tbh. I don't need to be woken up to be informed about Old Granny Twittlefingers from Williston.

I was on the Minnesota side of the border all afternoon, so I didn't get the alert. Funny how that works.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Scattered thunderstorms happened this evening here. If you've ever been to the gulf coast and seen the radar on your average summer afternoon there, that's how the radar looks here. Really not helpful to the drought. Expecting a bit more with the fropa. 70°F.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Last night was the rainiest night I can remember in forever it seems.  5-6 hours of constant rain shifting between steady, moderate, and heavy rain, nothing severe but decent amount of thunder.  You really couldn't have drawn a better a better outcome for the D4 drought areas of northern Minnesota.   

 

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I'm hoping for a solid soaker this evening.  Models have been consistently showing 0.50-1.00" across the area.  Once again, it may be quite a while until the next rain.  This summer sure has had a lot of long dry periods.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

First fall like cold front is on it's way!  Models showing .5-1 inch of rain possible for my area this evening but not much margin of error.  If the storms fire further east I will be left high and dry.

sfct.conus.png

Love how those temps look behind that front!

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Persistent light rain for the past few hours here. 55°F.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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It's looking possible that there will be no measurable rain in Lincoln through the rest of Sept. (entire GFS run has nothing). If that's the case, KLNK will only have 0.31" for the month (7th driest on record). Though most of the rest of the town has more due to the storm at the beginning of the month. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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It's looking like the best rain wants to track north and south of Cedar Rapids.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Thankfully, the line filled in as it approached Cedar Rapids.  I got a decent storm.  It just didn't last long.  My total is 0.51".

Johnson county (Iowa City) ended up getting the weakest/thinnest part of the line.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Well, models  did  very well in Southeast  Iowa. I only had .48 today  and a very  dry 1.11 for September  to date. But  many spots nearby including  the city of Ottumwa  had a inch plus. Very thankful, but sincerely  hope we dont have anoth 15 to 20 day before our next rain!

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Lows this week and weekend are going to be in the 40s to low 50s. Finally some hoodies after sunset weather. 

Edit: Also I swear I don't remember Sept 9 having a high of 49 last year. That's crazy. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Hello from Chicago!  I flew back on a very early flight out of PHX at 5:15am local time.  As many of you were tracking the seasons first Autumn CF, I was doing the same thing at 35,000ft.  It was an interesting flight as I captured the sunrise out of the SW region and into the S Plains we flew.  


8F5A1197-1638-4D9B-B2DF-9F34025CB1EF.jpeg


As we approached the CF, the captain went on the intercom and made a comment about how far reaching it was all the way down from Canada.  It was interesting to hear some wx related “talk” from a pilot over the intercom.  He said we were 40 miles away from a line of storms and be prepared for turbulence.  The videos I’m sharing below are when we approached the line and as we flew in and around small storms.  Turbulence wasn’t bad at all.  These were tiny cells anyway.

 

Needless to say, I had a fantastic time in AZ and enjoyed the Monsoon wx and traveling up north visiting the Grand Canyon.  I checked off a few things on my bucket list.  I’m glad to be back and the wx pattern is looking mighty fine.  I’m ready for Fall.

 

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Let me know if you could see some of the videos I posted above.  The one I posted with comments on it was saved in a different method on my phone but the others were via my iPhone using the HD effect.  It may not be able to play depending on what type of phone or computer you have.  I dunno, I'm just trying to figure this out so I know for future reference.

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Well, hello there...we haven't tracked one of these cut-off Lower Lakes systems in what seems like years.  06z NAM is eye candy...

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What's interesting about this scenario is it features a multi-faceted cyclone that favors a storm system tracking during the cold season with favorable characteristics...lake effect rain showers???  Sweet Defo Band???  All the high rez models are locked on this scenario.  Where is @jaster220 @Niko  BTW, I've noticed Niko hasn't been on here for a long time.  I'm beginning to wonder if he's alright.  Anyone keep in touch with him?

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The 0z EPS and other modeling is suggesting a pattern where both sides of the nation shall share cool pools while the Plains/Upper MW and N Rockies could bake later this month into early Oct....

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1 hour ago, Tom said:

Let me know if you could see some of the videos I posted above.  The one I posted with comments on it was saved in a different method on my phone but the others were via my iPhone using the HD effect.  It may not be able to play depending on what type of phone or computer you have.  I dunno, I'm just trying to figure this out so I know for future reference.

I was only able to watch the video of you flying in to the line of storms on my Android.

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4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I was only able to watch the video of you flying in to the line of storms on my Android.

Crap, it's prob bc it was a higher quality feature on my iPhone.  I'll have to make vids without this feature next time in order to post on here.  Thanks for letting me know.

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The current temperature of 69 is the overnight low here at my house. More likely than not this will be the warmest overnight low here until next summer.  So far there has been 0.07" of rain here yesterday and overnight. At this time with that temperature of 69 there is a light mist falling.

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@james1976

Nice to come on here and feel "missed"

I'd take a winter version of tomorrow's forecast, that's for sure:

image.png.df1e2b0304270b89f4094f2c518c50b4.png

Have a Flood Watch in effect and autumn's arrival looks to be right on cue. My new place is about 8 miles NW of DTW so I'm firmly in the Detroit Metro region. Funny, I think my "odds" of scoring a legit WSWatch this season have improved with the move to DTX's region. 

Hi to everyone, and I hope all are well.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

@james1976

Nice to come on here and feel "missed"

I'd take a winter version of tomorrow's forecast, that's for sure:

image.png.df1e2b0304270b89f4094f2c518c50b4.png

Have a Flood Watch in effect and autumn's arrival looks to be right on cue. My new place is about 8 miles NW of DTW so I'm firmly in the Detroit Metro region. Funny, I think my "odds" of scoring a legit WSWatch this season have improved with the move to DTX's region. 

Hi to everyone, and I hope all are well.

Glad to see you back!  Congrats on the move and enjoy your 1st autumn storm of the season.

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