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September 2021 Observations and Discussion


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7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@james1976

Nice to come on here and feel "missed"

I'd take a winter version of tomorrow's forecast, that's for sure:

image.png.df1e2b0304270b89f4094f2c518c50b4.png

Have a Flood Watch in effect and autumn's arrival looks to be right on cue. My new place is about 8 miles NW of DTW so I'm firmly in the Detroit Metro region. Funny, I think my "odds" of scoring a legit WSWatch this season have improved with the move to DTX's region. 

Hi to everyone, and I hope all are well.

Hi, I'm moving back to Toledo lol

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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I was awaken by a heavy lake effect shower about a couple hours ago and sorta went back to sleep but got outta bed at 3:00am.  The winds are getting pretty gusty out there this morning.  Boy, what a way to open up Autumn as nature is not waiting to show her fury.  The lake is going to get wild with waves building up to 16 feet!

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It'll be a bit choppy out there today...I'd like to see a map like this along with the colorful snowfall amounts...

 

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Another frosty night up in the Northwoods of MN and Wiso... @Beltrami Island are you in the advisory???  It seems like there have already been several chilly days/nights this season in this region that should allow for colors to begin showing up.  I'm sure your already seeing that up north.  @Madtown are you seeing some good color yet?  I'm starting to think about taking a road trip up north and do some fishing and site seeing sometime in mid Oct.

 

 

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Not quite frosty but parts of W and NW IA are in the upper 30's this AM. The coldest I've seen is Sheldon at 36F. DSM so far has bottomed out at 45F- which is the coolest since May 29th when it was 41F. 116 days felt like years!!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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As we embark on the official start of Autumn at 2:21pm local time, our local photographer captured this sunrise yesterday that happens every year....#chicagohenge 

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Meanwhile, over a week ago while I was in Arizona baking in the heat, I was also tracking back then what is now a timely 1st significant Autumn storm of the season.  Nature always does it best but when she shows up in a timely fashion it makes it that much better to enjoy the change of seasons. 

Today, will feel just like it should...a classic autumn storm is shaping up for the lower lakes region.  I can't help but think about similar beastly storms that took this track...reminiscent to the late 70's blizzards....gosh, did @jaster220 take his magnet with him???  It's nice to see a storm of this magnitude already showing up for the season.

#Retrograde... @westMJim @tStacsh

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It's going to be a beautiful day with highs in the low 70s and then falling into the mid 40s tonight.

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The streak for consecutive days with lows of 50 degrees or warmer is 114 days. Last time we were in the 40s was on May 30th when we bottomed out at 47. That streak will most like be broken in the morning.
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Welcome to astronomical autumn. While today is the so called "official" start of autumn meteorological autumn started on September 1st. The official high at Grand Rapids yesterday was 73 that is close to the average high of 72. The record high for yesterday is 95 in 2017 and the record low is 32 set in 1962. The overnight low both here at my house and at GRR was 53 and that is also the current temperature. I recorded 0.35" of rain fall.  For today the average H/L is 72/51 the record high is 95 also set in 2017 and the record low is 33 set in 1976.  With the forecasted high today of 61 and 58 tomorrow IF that plays out that would be a top 20 coldest highs for any September 22 and 23.

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34 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Finally some rain!   Greener grass for the first time in over a month.  Love it.  Too bad this system(s?) doesn't happen in Winter.  

We have seen moisture laden systems but the missing ingredient..yes, you guessed it...the cold!  I think that ingredient will be noteworthy this season.

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I'm in Baudette. There are definitely colors, but I'm noticing some bare trees already. Pretty depressing. 70°F.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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9 hours ago, Tom said:

Another frosty night up in the Northwoods of MN and Wiso... @Beltrami Island are you in the advisory???  It seems like there have already been several chilly days/nights this season in this region that should allow for colors to begin showing up.  I'm sure your already seeing that up north.  @Madtown are you seeing some good color yet?  I'm starting to think about taking a road trip up north and do some fishing and site seeing sometime in mid Oct.

 

 

Frost advisory was just to my east.  To much wind overnight for frost this morning here, only got down to mid 40s.   Fall color is developing day by day.  Very drab fall colors this year due to the dry summer.   

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8 minutes ago, Beltrami Island said:

Frost advisory was just to my east.  To much wind overnight for frost this morning here, only got down to mid 40s.   Fall color is developing day by day.  Very drab fall colors this year due to the dry summer.   

A lot of brown trees out by Roseau.

Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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I was expecting much more color around here due to the very wet summer.  I would say trees are behind schedule from what I have noticed the last few years.  Have only seen a few trees in town with large amount of color change.  I used to think I could predict our upcoming winter by how fast the leaves changed or fell.  Most years I was wrong.

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Enjoy the fall weather while ya can cuz we're going above normal again next week. DMX calling for 80s and possibly 90. Sucks!

 

Nearly unanimous model consensus for above normal temperatures and dry conditions for at least the first half of next as a ridge builds up the high Plains. High confidence in daily highs into the upper 70s to mid 80s, possibly into the upper 80s to near 90 at times depending on the timing of weak frontal passages and depth of BL mixing.

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About as boring as you can get for a 7 day forecast. Dry and above average temps...

Tonight
Clear, with a low around 47. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 77. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 9 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 16 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55. South wind around 6 mph.
Friday
Partly sunny, with a high near 70. West wind 6 to 13 mph becoming north northwest in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 48. North northwest wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 78.
Saturday Night
Clear, with a low around 53.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Sunday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 58.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 86.
Monday Night
Clear, with a low around 59.
Tuesday
Sunny, with a high near 84.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
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Some spots of 50 mph gusts on this graphic from GRR. From the first autumn storm! These would be serious winds in November from the usual NW vector. Has to be rare air (pun intended) from the NE in the 3rd week of Sept.

 

20210922 GRR WInds.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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@Tom

"haha" about the magnet. I was thinking the same thing. Have a pretty strong history of moving to a new place and being followed by some historical winters/storms. While last winter was a real let-down for mby in Marshall, we did finish with that nice dbl digit storm in mid-Feb and sometimes seasons like to pick-up where they left off. Soooo...who knows, but I'm starting to get that itch to track winter storms, especially after missing out for the most part last season.

 

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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2.61" storm total so far per KYIP which is about 7 mi SSW of home here. Have a lull and not sure if the ULL keeps that blob west of here or it rotates thru later tonight

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Sun was on top of the east-west road at sunset.

20210922_192336.jpg

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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For the most part, yesterday was a windy and cloudy day that had a chill in the air.  Then, however, the sun popped out right as it was about to set.  The city colors came alive and some photographers captured some cool shots.

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Waterspout season is in full effect....

 

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I recorded 0.85" of rain fall here at my house. The official rain fall at GRR looks to be around  1.18" The overnight low both here and at GRR was 47 and at this time it is a cool and wet 47. Yesterdays high at Grand Rapids of 60 was the 14th coolest high for any September 22. The forecast high for today is 52 and if that plays out that would be the 2nd coldest high ever for September 23 at Grand Rapids. 

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Absolutely beautiful fall weather starts this weekend after a quick cold front Friday night.  Football season in full effect.  Low 70's,  near to above normal temps and no humidity.  Can't wait to grill all week and get that patio heater going at night, as well as some campfires.  And my grass just woke up after being moisture starved for 2 months.  

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15 minutes ago, Madtown said:

32 this am. Let it snow!

Good ole KRMY ASOS unit says it already DID. Getting in the mode/mood a little bit prematurely LOL

image.png.f0e139fc01be616d5e25f59f301e6c9f.png

That unit's been notoriously bad at p-types & rates over the years, but somebody might really need to make a service call out to Brook's Field before winter's really here.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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