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September 2021 Observations and Discussion


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3 minutes ago, Niko said:

Lol...that Tom is like hell for me when I go there. The first few days are very hard. For i.e., when people there go to sleep, I wake up, it takes me tbh at least 4 to 5 days to adjust. Now coming back to the states takes me a week to get used to everything.

Quick question: do you know if its going to clear up here at all on the west coast. Would luv to see some Cal- Sunshine. The mountains are cover in low clouds for days now.

It doesn't look good bc that low is going to spin there through Sun...

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Well into the 80s on Tuesday and probably not getting below 60 that night. Really thought we were done with that sh!t but looks like I get to run my AC again!!!

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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On 9/24/2021 at 2:14 PM, Niko said:

@jaster220

Welcome to Detroit sir! Wow! Niko waves back to ya. Hope your move here is a pleasant one. Now watch, this year, Marshall gets inundated w WsW's lol.

Anyways, welcome to Detroit.

Thanks for the welcome "homey"

Lol if Marshall gets slammed. Tbh, I'm feeling pretty good about my new region doing well this winter and my "other backyard" could be included. 

A storm like we just experienced is such a rarity/oddity that I don't know what to think of it tbh. I can't remember anything like it so early. Not when I was growing up in SEMI, and not during the almost 31 years I was away. There was a hurricane remnant back in 1988 that was a wind-driven rainstorm, and Ike in Sept 2008 (while I was out of country) dumped even more rain at least in Marshall. But this system wasn't tropical at all. A winter version would likely have dethroned the April 1886 reigning champ.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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5 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

Well into the 80s on Tuesday and probably not getting below 60 that night. Really thought we were done with that sh!t but looks like I get to run my AC again!!!

The “September Sizzle”…did you get your first frosts yet?  I saw there were some advisories issued yesterday to your west.  Gotta get the Indian Summer wx outta the way.  TBH, I’d rather see this prolong warmth in late Sept/Oct rather then during Nov (Thanksgiving) or Dec. Plus, you get to enjoy the outdoors a little more before real gloomy autumn wx settles in.  


Personally speaking, my grid only has a couple days in the mid 80’s and the rest in the 70’s with nothing but sunshine.  That’s like a gift from nature.  I’m sure the farmers are enjoying this dry pattern for harvesting crop.  
 

 

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Pretty milk-toast weather for the large part of us for a few morecdays to a week, probably; but, where our focus should be right now is what a super typhoon is going to set off when it thrashes the polar regions and then there Sam on the other side.

Get ya opopcorn ready because the show's about to start as we close this month out.

October is going to be interesting...

Blend of 2010 and 2013 plus 2014 are my playbook options right now, but a 2000 and 2001 blend is a probable one as well.

Southern jet is going to do some weird stuff this year based solely on just "Niña metrics".

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29 minutes ago, Tom said:

The “September Sizzle”…did you get your first frosts yet?  I saw there were some advisories issued yesterday to your west.  Gotta get the Indian Summer wx outta the way.  TBH, I’d rather see this prolong warmth in late Sept/Oct rather then during Nov (Thanksgiving) or Dec. Plus, you get to enjoy the outdoors a little more before real gloomy autumn wx settles in.  


Personally speaking, my grid only has a couple days in the mid 80’s and the rest in the 70’s with nothing but sunshine.  That’s like a gift from nature.  I’m sure the farmers are enjoying this dry pattern for harvesting crop.  
 

 

I've been thinking about the harvesters, myself the other night while enjoying the cool, dry air. The last 2 weeks for a lot of those folks has had to have been one of the most beautiful in a long time.

When I looked at the moon and felt the seasons, just know that I havent witnessed a September like this in over 20 years. Probably since the early 90s when I was a kid. Anyway, random thoughts, but what a beautiful harvest moon it was this year.

Calm before the storm?

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7 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I've been thinking about the harvesters, myself the other night while enjoying the cool, dry air. The last 2 weeks for a lot of those folks has had to have been one of the most beautiful in a long time.

When I looked at the moon and felt the seasons, just know that I havent witnessed a September like this in over 20 years. Probably since the early 90s when I was a kid. Anyway, random thoughts, but what a beautiful harvest moon it was this year.

Calm before the storm?

Speaking of the harvest moon, I saw it when I was in the plane on the tarmac heading back to Chicago from Arizona this past Monday.  It was a magnificent site to see just above the horizon.  I agree with ya, the models are doing some wacky things ATM, esp trying to figure out the blocking patterns.  I do also see a strong southern jet setting up for periods this cold season.  Enjoy the beautiful Autumn wx!

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The overnight low both here at my house and at GRR was 47. At this time it is sunny and 62 here. On my daily walk there are several oak and walnut trees and this year there are a ton of acorns and  walnuts falling off of them that could be a sign. According to old winter folklore "Lots of acorns and walnuts in the fall also indicate a cold winter ahead." so I guess we can put that in the winter guess for the upcoming winter.

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5 hours ago, Tom said:

The “September Sizzle”…did you get your first frosts yet?  I saw there were some advisories issued yesterday to your west.  Gotta get the Indian Summer wx outta the way.  TBH, I’d rather see this prolong warmth in late Sept/Oct rather then during Nov (Thanksgiving) or Dec. Plus, you get to enjoy the outdoors a little more before real gloomy autumn wx settles in.  


Personally speaking, my grid only has a couple days in the mid 80’s and the rest in the 70’s with nothing but sunshine.  That’s like a gift from nature.  I’m sure the farmers are enjoying this dry pattern for harvesting crop.  
 

 

No frosts yet, it only hit 41 here. Higher elevation areas to my west did see frost.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Our average first frost is 9/18. It's looking like we will go well into October without one. It's like we're overcorrecting for last year where our first frost was in early September.

Mid-70s and mid-50s are nice and all, but I'd rather not have every day be just that going into the second week of October, when colder weather becomes more supported by climo.

Averages right now are upper 60s/mid-40s.

PS: Grids are showing 86 on Tuesday.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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The sun finally came out here yesterday in Santa Barbara, CA. Temps remained at near 70F and not a cloud to be found. It felt so good to finally feel and see the "California Sunshine."

So, the wedding was beautiful as well. Food was amazing. Leaving for Los Angeles today. Thinking of taking route1 for scenery, instead of 101. Currently its 61F under cloudy skies in the Goleta area. 

Happy Sunday everyone!

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Snowfall as of today Oct 2021= 0.0"

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46 minutes ago, Niko said:

The sun finally came out here yesterday in Santa Barbara, CA. Temps remained at near 70F and not a cloud to be found. It felt so good to finally feel and see the "California Sunshine."

So, the wedding was beautiful as well. Food was amazing. Leaving for Los Angeles today. Thinking of taking route1 for scenery, instead of 101. Currently its 61F under cloudy skies in the Goleta area. 

Happy Sunday everyone!

I highly recommend taking PCH down to LA and seeing all the nice beach towns.  It’s a nice drive for sure.  Glad the sun made its presence!

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It was a Splendid Sunday yesterday as we reached a high of 83F along with pristine blue skies and a strong southwesterly breeze.  You couldn't of dialed it up any better.  Looking for a bit warmer temps today peaking in the upper 80's before a lake enduced CF sweeps in just before dinner time.  This week of wx is about as good as it gets around here.  While it will be dry all week here, there are changes brewing for later this weekend....Lower Lakes cutter???  The models are showing some intriguing signs for the new LRC pattern setting up as we close out Sept and open up October.

0z Euro...bountiful precip heading for the "heartland" of the nation...

1.png

 

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5 minutes ago, Tom said:

It was a Splendid Sunday yesterday as we reached a high of 83F along with pristine blue skies and a strong southwesterly breeze.  You couldn't of dialed it up any better.  Looking for a bit warmer temps today peaking in the upper 80's before a lake enduced CF sweeps in just before dinner time.  This week of wx is about as good as it gets around here.  While it will be dry all week here, there are changes brewing for later this weekend....Lower Lakes cutter???  The models are showing some intriguing signs for the new :RC pattern setting up as we close out Sept and open up October.

0z Euro...bountiful precip heading for the "heartland" of the nation...

1.png

 

Boy does that map look good! Last week's drought monitor moved my area in to the abnormally dry category. 

 

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It was an anomalous day yesterday in the PHX area for the time of year.  For the most part, the entire day was spent under cloudy skies and rainy weather.  The high was only 80F while a large part of the valley enjoyed a very nice stratiform rainfall that soaked into the soils.  My father said it was almost chilly...I guess his thin blood had something to do with it! 

Monsoon season is poised to finish off with a Bang for AZ this week.  If you ever wonder why I keep referencing to wx pattern in this part of the nation its because I strongly believe it is a glimpse of what we are about to endure when the all important month of Oct shows itself.  I'll prob start an Oct thread today or tomorrow as there will be a lot to discuss.  Let me tell ya, the trends are looking better and wetter for a good portion of our central/southern Sub to open up the 1st week of Oct.  The models are seeing the Canadian blocks...Banana HP's...don't you tease us!!

 

 

 

 

 

 

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In the Autumn Discussion, I opined what the pressure patterns in the high lats would do to our wx pattern in the mid lats.  The trends in both the GEFS/EPS are starting to cool temps in the mid range.  On the flip side, in the very LR, the models were blow torch warm.  Suddenly, as we get closer in time, they are trending cooler...and...wetter....

1.gif

 

2.gif

 

Now, this is were the modeling has been showing signs of early busts.  IMO, it has a lot to do with the "tongue" of very warm waters in the NE PAC...as well as the new features of the developing cyclical pattern.  Not to mention, the other LR clues using the EAR and BSR.  All point towards a stormier pattern setting up across our Sub heading into next week followed by some cooler wx towards mid month.

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

My early thoughts on what I anticipate this year's La Nina to deliver is NOT going to be your typical La Nina pattern.  I'm predicting an active SW storm track based on what we've been already seeing happen in the desert SW.  Moreover, the models are shifting towards that crucial "hand off" of troughs in the NE PAC.  Check out the 0z EPS animation below and you could see the modeling handing off troughs into Cali.  After the current trough moves out of AZ/NM, the next one is targeting So Cal around the 5th/6th followed by a stronger trough just past the 8th in this animation.  TBH, I'm digging this set up.  Blocking over The Top....don't you stop!

3.gif

 

Finally, I'll end with this....I know we have seen the past few Septembers produce some early season CF's sweep down the leeward side of the Rockies, but that hasn't happened this year.  Instead, we are seeing storm enduced cold from strong troughs in the 4 corners.  This leads us to an early start to winter and a wonderful site to see for the CO Rockies...Telluride, CO with snow for days...Let it Snow

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=204&y=201&site=gjt&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=204&map_y=201

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A week ago they said we might not hit 70 again this September.  Now it's 80 today.  Even short term forecasting is difficult.  I can't imagine anyone coming close to long range predictions accurately anytime soon.  You can look at the "signals" and "analogs" but it's all  guesses at this point.  I just want one big snow storm.  Is that too much to ask?   

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17 hours ago, WBadgersW said:

So Jealous. I moved to San Antonio and our fall weather is 90°.

I grew up in Houston and I feel that. Just wait till your first 85* February day.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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Glad to see the GFS trending wetter and the Euro further east.  This could be some much needed rainfall later this week.  @TomI agree with you as this storm begins to take shape it looks more like the end of Oct storm you mentioned.  This should be a good rain producer and our next system after this should be part of a new pattern.

qpf_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

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Mid-90s in Western ND. That is downright ridiculous.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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On 9/26/2021 at 6:22 PM, WBadgersW said:

So Jealous. I moved to San Antonio and our fall weather is 90°.

I hear ya brother!

I’m in Ft Worth.  
But get ready Feb. promises to be a lulu!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Sick and tired of this. 

 

This sh!t is happening every year. Getting really ridiculous.

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Severe Weather Stats for Fargo 2020-21

Slight risks: 4 (Last: 8/9)   Enhanced Risks: 0    Moderate Risks: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 3 (Last: 8/9)   Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1 (Last: 6/7)

Tornado Watches: 0    Tornado Warnings: 0

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

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2 hours ago, FAR_Weather said:

This sh!t is happening every year. Getting really ridiculous.

Yeah, freaking annoying lol. I’m excited for cooler days and actual rain chances after tomorrow even if lows will be torching.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"  

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" 

Average: 25.9"

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Hit 87F yesterday before the lake enhanced CF swept in and abruptly dropped temps into the 60's.  While the afternoon was quite warm, the evening was delightful and cool.  Its currently in the upper 50's around the area.  It might be the last time we have temps that warm for the rest of this season.  Looking forward to seeing temps in the upper 70's to near 80F for the rest of the week...warm days and cool nights...precip chances on the rise this weekend.

 

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The overnight low here at my house was 51 the official overnight low looks to be 50 at GRR. Yesterdays high of 79 was a tie with 6 other years for the 13th warmest for the date. So far this September mean is 66.0 and that is a departure of +1.9. it will end up in the top half but will have to wait to see just where. At this time it is clear here and 53.

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Here are some pics from my trip out west:  Enjoy!

PIC1: Flying over MI (Central MI to be exact)

PIC2: Building thunderstorm in the far distance

PIC3: Rocky Mountains

PIC4: Another view of the mountains

PIC5: Fast Food chain in Los Angeles. (Very popular) "Burgers were extremely good."

PIC6: Reception area after the wedding. View as you can see is extraordinary in the Goleta area (Santa Barbara).

PIC7: Church area in Goleta, CA.

PIC8: Pier walk, Goleta area, CA.

PIC9: View from the pier

PIC10: In this pic, just by looking at it, it brings you a cool, Pacific breeze at ya.

PIC11: Flying over LAX upon arrival.

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Snowfall as of today Oct 2021= 0.0"

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5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Here are some pics from my trip out west:  Enjoy!

PIC1: Flying over MI (Central MI to be exact)

PIC2: Building thunderstorm in the far distance

PIC3: Rocky Mountains

PIC4: Another view of the mountains

PIC5: Fast Food chain in Los Angeles. (Very popular) "Burgers were extremely good."

PIC6: Reception area after the wedding. View as you can see is extraordinary in the Goleta area (Santa Barbara).

PIC7: Church area in Goleta, CA.

PIC8: Pier walk, Goleta area, CA.

PIC9: View from the pier

PIC10: In this pic, just by looking at it, it brings you a cool, Pacific breeze at ya.

PIC11: Flying over LAX upon arrival.

Pic1.jpg

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Pic5.jpg

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In N Out Burger rules!

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43 minutes ago, james1976 said:

In N Out Burger rules!

Yes...phenomenal burgers! I had to get 2 of them to really get a real feel outta them. Lines are huge and looks deceiving when you first see it, but tbh, they have so many people working there all at once, which makes it move along nicely and b4 ya know it, you are there at the window paying your order.

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Snowfall as of today Oct 2021= 0.0"

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12 hours ago, Niko said:

Yes...phenomenal burgers! I had to get 2 of them to really get a real feel outta them. Lines are huge and looks deceiving when you first see it, but tbh, they have so many people working there all at once, which makes it move along nicely and b4 ya know it, you are there at the window paying your order.

#animalstyle...they have In 'n Out Burger in Arizona as well...always packed and always gooood!  

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It a cool 48 here at my house at this time. With just two days to go the mean for September at Grand Rapids is now at 65.8 that is a departure of +1.9 September will end up above average and looks to be in the top 25 warmest for the month. As for precipitation Grand Rapids official amount is now at 3.34" and that is above the average of 3.20.  Rain fall has been hit or miss across the area with Holland and Muskegon drier that average and Grand Rapids, Kalamazoo and Lansing wetter than average. 

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Gorgeous morning here in the Detroit Metro Area. Lots of sunshine w temps holding in the nippy 50s.  Highs should top off in the uppers 60s to near 70F. 

Colors have already started to change.

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Snowfall as of today Oct 2021= 0.0"

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Forecast and models were off for the rain amounts.  Had a nice line of thunderstorms come through between 1-3:30 AM.  Were supposed to get 1-2" but I checked the gauge before I left for school and it says 0.60".  Probably good for the farmers that it wasn't much more than this.  It had gotten dry in the last 2 weeks so this is a nice rain.  Strong north wind with a temp in the low 50's felt wonderful after the last several days of 90's.  

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Had .78" of rain overnight. We were right on the edge of the rain and storms as parts of west Omaha had nothing.

My wireless rain gauge showed 1.37" of rain with .80" in only 10 minutes!! Not sure why it was so off, but it seems to happen randomly. I always compare it to my good old fashioned Stratus rain gauge for the accurate number.

Now it's sunny and warm even though there was an 80% chance of rain today.

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I mentioned heavy rain in the grids in the OCT thread and than removal of heavy rain for earlier today for Des Moines area.  Official climate for DSM so far is "TR".  Epic bust.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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