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The 4th of July Heat Event that People Didn't Think We'd Have Because We Just Had One and Back-to-Back Heatwaves Never Happen Here Heatwave Contest


IbrChris

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The setup on the weekend of the 4th is a classic offshore flow/westside thermal trough configuration with a surface high moving southward out of central Canada into MT/Dakotas. This is coming into better focus on the models and as a result the ensemble mean 850 temps have really risen last 24 hours of runs...6z GFS ensembles already showing a mean H8 temp of +23 to +24c (latter bias corrected GEFS) on July 4th. GFS Op more aggressive with +25c. Looking at the 00z ECMWF the Op reaches +22c on days 9 and 10 while the EPS mean peaks at +22c on the 4th. Canadian ensembles reach a peak of +21c on the 4th as well. Overall good agreement on the ensembles in the 6-10 and early 11-15 time frame which lends higher confidence to another round of heat end of next week.

Judging by the trends in models, the good agreement in ensemble suites and the overall progression of the longwave pattern I believe we will be talking about 100 degrees for PDX as we head into the holiday weekend, with July 3-5 being the most likely timeframe for us to achieve the century mark.

Throw out some guesses for July 2-6...highs/lows at PDX. And if you prefer SEA that's fine too.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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I think I'll wait til the first heatwave is over to focus on this one...

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

PDX didn't hit 100.

 

;)

True, Portland topped out at 97 while McMinnville and Salem both hit 100 on the 2nd.

 

I'm surprised you don't post more in the Mountain West forum. They could use your daily Westminster, CO weather data.

The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die.

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It was a good forecast. I don't know many forecasts that are only 3F off at 10 days out. I wish our local forecasts were that good (but they only go out 7 days, anyway).

 

I wonder if people would still be critical if it had reached 103 instead of 97 -- same difference. ;)

It was an overhyped forecast.

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True, Portland topped out at 97 while McMinnville and Salem both hit 100 on the 2nd.

 

I'm surprised you don't post more in the Mountain West forum. They could use your daily Westminster, CO weather data.

 

I'm originally from the PNW, so I have a lot of interest in the weather there.

 

Also, I don't like talking to myself most of the time.

A forum for the end of the world.

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