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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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20 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

better enjoy that fabled ridging... fall is fast approaching ;)

I like a nice September to round out the warm season.    Its technically a fall month... but its the same as people liking snow and cold in March to extend winter even though its technically spring.     October should be fall-like... that feels proper.    😁

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Should be noted that the Huskies also lost their opener in 2008.

Keep it up, boys!

I was skeptical of this team, and my suspicions were confirmed. It really can't get any worse. We're basically living in a van down by the river. I'm hoping we can upgrade our accommodations and stay at a local Motel 6 or even a homeless shelter.

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3 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I was skeptical of this team, and my suspicions were confirmed. It really can't get any worse. We're basically living in a van down by the river. I'm hoping we can upgrade our accommodations and stay at a local Motel 6 or even a homeless shelter.

You’ll be able to park that van ON the river by late December.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Certainly some disappointing changes in tonight's GFS.  Not horrible, but not the very cool week two that had been advertised on previous runs.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Salem hit 90 today too. Today could be the last 90 of the year, if not today, it will likely come in the next couple days. Long hot summer drawing to a close. 

How on Earth do they do it?  SEA didn't even hit 80 today.  Just insane.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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50 minutes ago, seattleweatherguy said:

With Lake as coach? Nah id rather lose out and he be gone at seasons end. It would also get rid of Donovan too.

It's not over, but it don't look good. Maybe they should consider scheduling Whitworth University in the future.

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It just seems inconceivable we could get another round of significant warmth after what we've already had, but right now the model trends are kind of going that way.  Obviously this is all in flux right now, but obviously La Nina Septembers can be warm.  The two week plus cool interlude was pretty significant though and proves we are capable of breaking out of the warmth.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

It just seems inconceivable we could get another round of significant warmth after what we've already had, but right now the model trends are kind of going that way.  Obviously this is all in flux right now, but obviously La Nina Septembers can be warm.  The two week plus cool interlude was pretty significant though and proves we are capable of breaking out of the warmth.

2nd year la niñas with -Qbo seem to have warmth in September

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Grizzlies!!!!!!

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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35 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Should be noted that the Huskies also lost their opener in 2008.

Keep it up, boys!

I was at that game!!!! ❤️ 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 23.25" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Just realized this was the 83rd consecutive day of 70+ highs at PDX, breaking the old record of 80 in 1967. At this point it's safe to say the record will get pushed to at least 90 days, barring a big change in the models or a day of choking smoke.

On the dry front PDX is at 3.82" of rain in the last 189 days with things looking still looking bone dry for the foreseeable future. The fall storm season can't come soon enough.

Edit: on further review the record of 70+ is actually 90 consecutive all the way back in 2017. Good chance we break it anyway.

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A couple of pieces of good news are the 850 spike in a couple of days is down 2C from earlier runs, and the operational GFS is a warm outlier on the ensemble as we get deeper into next week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Some good news. The 00z Euro took away even the pitiful amount of precip the 12z run was showing for Tuesday/Wednesday. Luckily I have a sadistic, insatiable lust for ground-cracking drought so I’m not too worried.

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3 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Some good news. The 00z Euro took away even the pitiful amount of precip the 12z run was showing for Tuesday/Wednesday. Luckily I have a sadistic, insatiable lust for ground-cracking drought so I’m not too worried.

As long as it’s still showing rain up this way, I’m fine with it.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

trend-gfs-2021090500-f132.500h_anom_na.gif.e5ced1852b990c7d62d7878a9c4f0c10.gif

Haven't seen this one before..... 00z is unrecognizable compared to the 18z.

It's as if the GFS placed two tropical storms as anchor points, then hit the randomizer button for the rest of the midlatitudes

There’s a reason I call it goofus.

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3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Should be noted that the Huskies also lost their opener in 2008.

Keep it up, boys!

That 2008 opener was a fun game on the other end of it 😉 and a beautifully terrible season for UW ensued. Then December happened.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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22 minutes ago, snow maniac said:

Total of 0.03 of rain woohoo, most rain I’ve seen since June…LOL

No rain here at all. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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After an impressive run of lows in the 40s a low of 64 this morning 15 degrees warmer than yesterday morning. We will see if we get a midnight low though. 

Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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7 hours ago, Jesse said:

Some good news. The 00z Euro took away even the pitiful amount of precip the 12z run was showing for Tuesday/Wednesday. Luckily I have a sadistic, insatiable lust for ground-cracking drought so I’m not too worried.

It’s getting a bit ridiculous now. Might realistically go 3 months with ~0.10” total over that whole timeframe. Some places even less in the region. Just can’t catch a break south of Seattle it seems. Really hope the convection works out for some rainfall on Wednesday.

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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1 hour ago, snow maniac said:

Total of 0.03 of rain woohoo, most rain I’ve seen since June…LOL

 

51 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

No rain here at all. 

Nestcam showed the street darken up a bit around 1:30 am but it was very short lived (10 minutes).  Zero precipitation measured but a bit did fall (Federal Way).

Beautiful morning down here in PDX 

 

 

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Currently in Sequim and the damage the drought and heat has done at scale is kind of impressive. Nearly every deciduous tree is showing stress to a significant extent. It looks like late September out here. Then there my family's lawn out here, where usually you can let it go dormant in the summer and it starts to recover in September. The lawn is dead and dusty. Even the scattering of weeds have dried out. A third of the ferns in the forest cover are dead, everything is crispy, and if it isn't, its wilted.

I've been coming out here yearly in early September for about a decade and I have never seen anything like this.

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

Currently in Sequim and the damage the drought and heat has done at scale is kind of impressive. Nearly every deciduous tree is showing stress to a significant extent. It looks like late September out here. Then there my family's lawn out here, where usually you can let it go dormant in the summer and it starts to recover in September. The lawn is dead and dusty. Even the scattering of weeds have dried out. A third of the ferns in the forest cover are dead, everything is crispy, and if it isn't, its wilted.

I've been coming out here yearly in early September for about a decade and I have never seen anything like this.

This summer hasn’t been too friendly to the ecosystem here in the PNW. Have noticed dead wilting trees and vegetation to varying degrees here in Tacoma. Definitely have seen it in other places around the south sound. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.81”

Cold season rainfall-15.96”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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Currently a warm drizzle falling. Had a low of 59, currently 64. 
Nothing in the rain gauge yet this weekend however. 
 

My area has done better than many on the forum with I think nearly an inch of rain falling in the last two months. However walking my trails yesterday there is definitely some stressed vegetation. More alder leaves have fallen than usual as well, I cleared the path yesterday. My other trees are hanging in there however. 

46B92C15-A65D-4E02-8A58-991FEABE1642.jpeg

9C61CAB3-C66A-4DC9-B2C2-46DCEEF9C835.jpeg

F6E1348A-06A7-4AC4-913B-1783B89D6768.jpeg

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No clouds at all over the last 2 days. No rain in the gauge since June 14. None in sight. Old fir trees brown in spots. The grass is like a mowed version of the steppe grass in southern California and the weeds are all shriveled and dying. If the city doesn't burn this year, then next year I don't see how it isn't outside the realm of possibility.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Currently a warm drizzle falling. Had a low of 59, currently 64. 
Nothing in the rain gauge yet this weekend however. 
 

My area has done better than many on the forum with I think nearly an inch of rain falling in the last two months. However walking my trails yesterday there is definitely some stressed vegetation. More alder leaves have fallen than usual as well, I cleared the path yesterday. My other trees are hanging in there however. 

46B92C15-A65D-4E02-8A58-991FEABE1642.jpeg

9C61CAB3-C66A-4DC9-B2C2-46DCEEF9C835.jpeg

F6E1348A-06A7-4AC4-913B-1783B89D6768.jpeg

Alders around here are a joke.   They start looking stressed and dropping their leaves by late June or early July regardless of how much rain has fallen.   Its happened every year since we have been here.   They are such a messy tree.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 hours ago, TacomaWaWx said:

After an impressive run of lows in the 40s a low of 64 this morning 15 degrees warmer than yesterday morning. We will see if we get a midnight low though. 

What a way to bust out of your 40s streak. Kinda disgusting night imo.

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