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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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Just now, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Drier for the end of next week too. In fact, just plain dry. Who could have seen that coming?

Yeah... the 12Z GFS is vastly different for later next week than the 00Z run and much drier.  

Andrew called it.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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We ended up with 0.26" of rain in August. September can be an extremely dry month in NW Oregon. One that wasn't was September 2013, wow, what a month, we had about 13" of rain that month and almost doubled the record for September rain. No reason to think it won't be a dry one this year.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Only down to 49 here this morning. Certainly chilly but it's been colder more recently.

That is downright bizarre.  I got to 42, Hobart 44, and the 18 / 90 junction 40.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Counted lows below 40 in the Summer going back to 2010. Notice how much higher 2021 ranks compared to 2015 and both were record hot seasons.

2012: 23
2011: 18
2020: 15
2010: 15
2021: 13*
2019: 12
2013: 12
2016: 12
2014: 11
2018: 11
2017: 8
2015: 4

A few years match each other but ways to rank one above the other, like 2010 did not have lows <30, and 2013 had an earlier frost than 2016.
2014 had a cooler average June low than 2018. Etc.

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That is downright bizarre.  I got to 42, Hobart 44, and the 18 / 90 junction 40.

I thought that too when I first saw it.

As it turns out, I think my website must have been showing some cached data because after I refreshed a couple times it reflected a low of 40, which is much more in line with the temps seen in our area this morning. So to correct the record: low of 40 here this morning, which is good for our coldest low since 5/29. Actually had to turn the heat on this morning for the first time in months.

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

Dropped to 41 here, and visibility was less then a 1/8 of a mile or so in Montesano, dense fog, when we dropped our kiddo off for the first day of school.

What a way to kick off fall.  This was within a degree of the coldest I've seen this early in the season, and that is counting all of my personal records back to 1978.  Tonight will be much the same.

The change since mid August has been quite striking, made even more unusual by the continuation of mostly dry conditions after the change.  The big change was the 4CH giving out.  The Pacific High has been there all along, but the 4CH was making it so bloody hot.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

I thought that too when I first saw it.

As it turns out, I think my website must have been showing some cached data because after I refreshed a couple times it reflected a low of 40, which is much more in line with the temps seen in our area this morning. So to correct the record: low of 40 here this morning, which is good for our coldest low since 5/29.

That has to be something of a relief.  I would have been bummed with 49!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

What a way to kick off fall.  This was within a degree of the coldest I've seen this early in the season, and that is counting all of my personal records back to 1978.  Tonight will be much the same.

The change since mid August has been quite striking, made even more unusual by the continuation of mostly dry conditions after the change.  The big change was the 4CH giving out.  The Pacific High has been there all along, but the 4CH was making it so bloody hot.

It was the earliest I’ve recorded a 45 degree low…had a 45 degree low in the first half of September 2017 but that was on the 15th not the first of the month. Has been legitimately chilly about time things went anomalously the other way. 

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Monthly rainfall-0.57”

Cold season rainfall-15.72”

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-42

Coldest Low-34

 

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In NW Oregon I have always considered September a more summery month than June... Though after this year...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

In NW Oregon I have always considered September a more summery month than June... Though after this year...

Don't jinx it!!! Now the McKenzie is gonna blow up again!!!

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Lala land GFS is mighty chilly. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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That's not an OMG GFS run it's a holy sheit GFS run!  Wow that is cold for so early.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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September is usually sunnier than June, and most of the precip is confined to the last third of the month, opposite of June.  Though I was surprised at just how similar they were.

My stats for BG June/September

Avg High: 74/75

Avg Low: 50/49

Avg Precip: 2.3"/2.5"

Cloudy Days: 14/11

Precip Days: 12/10

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I'm getting a warm and tingly feeling about the final third of this year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Will be attending a remembrance this weekend marking the one year anniversary of the Labor Day Fire Storm. Going to be a tough weekend. 

 

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

 

 

Thank God this post didn't follow this one.

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1 minute ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

We don't want skies looking like fruit punch anymore. lol

EhaNU9rVkAEpMNc.jpg

17327.jpg

Silverton Smoke.jpg

Just amazing how spooky and crazy that was last year.  Looks like another planet in those pics.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

September is usually sunnier than June, and most of the precip is confined to the last third of the month, opposite of June.  Though I was surprised at just how similar they were.

My stats for BG June/September

Avg High: 74/75

Avg Low: 50/49

Avg Precip: 2.3"/2.5"

Cloudy Days: 14/11

Precip Days: 12/10

Definitely sunnier, including the smoky years. In 2014 and 2015 the smoke didn't last through much of the month. We get weeks straight of blue sky and 20 mile visibility usually.

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2 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

September is usually sunnier than June, and most of the precip is confined to the last third of the month, opposite of June.  Though I was surprised at just how similar they were.

My stats for BG June/September

Avg High: 74/75

Avg Low: 50/49

Avg Precip: 2.3"/2.5"

Cloudy Days: 14/11

Precip Days: 12/10

And yet September has potential to get far more impressively chilly than June.  One great example is 1972.  Some of the most strikingly cold Septembers in the past have led to some of our most wickedly cold Decembers.  1884 and 1972 are fabulous examples of this, and there are others.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

And yet September has potential to get far more impressively chilly than June.  One great example is 1972.  Some of the most strikingly cold Septembers in the past have led to some of our most wickedly cold Decembers.  1884 and 1972 are fabulous examples of this, and there are others.

1972 was a COLD one here, but was just narrowly beaten by 2013 on the mean temperature. Though Dec 1972 had one or two cooler lows, one of them -22.

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10 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

1972 was a COLD one here, but was just narrowly beaten by 2013 on the mean temperature. Though Dec 1972 had one or two cooler lows, one of them -22.

Both of those years featured great events in December here.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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Meanwhile... back in reality the next 10 days look pretty spectacular.    Generally sunny and in the 70s to low 80s.   Can't ask for a much better start to fall.   Only wish there has been more rain regionally.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I'm actually fairly optimistic it will stay in the higher terrain. 

The fire fighters did an amazing job with structure protection yesterday when the fire actually jumped 89 while keeping it mostly out of the basin. They definitely caught a bit of a break with the winds more from the southwest vs the south but either way just an incredible job.

1584411071_ScreenShot2021-09-01at12_03_26PM.thumb.png.df2bccbec83ca1105e59f4321fbef42d.png

 

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

2018 had a record breaking september cold snap in the BC interior  around the same time the gfs is advertising. And December that year was a total crap fest 💩. Just saying. 

Phil says that with some VERY minor tweaks December 2018 would have been spectacular.

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SNOOOW! First tease of the season. 🥰

1217053571_ScreenShot2021-09-01at12_07_09PM.thumb.png.c341a8e29537176af2f50657df451677.png

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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4 minutes ago, Kayla said:

The fire fighters did an amazing job with structure protection yesterday when the fire actually jumped 89 while keeping it mostly out of the basin. They definitely caught a bit of a break with the winds more from the southwest vs the south but either way just an incredible job.

1584411071_ScreenShot2021-09-01at12_03_26PM.thumb.png.df2bccbec83ca1105e59f4321fbef42d.png

 

That map is very problematic as it labels California State Route 89 as US route 89 which is about 1,000 miles to the east of there in like Utah. I'm not even that good at GIS and that's just a bush league effort for accuracy there.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

When was your first snow last year? I still can't believe I saw 3" on 9/8.

9/8 here as well here with 1". 

Which reminds me, time to start up a new spreadsheet for the 2021-22 season!

1798418323_ScreenShot2021-09-01at12_17_23PM.thumb.png.f4f5ffa378a7e30a92f97efa6ec99ee8.png

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

When was your first snow last year? I still can't believe I saw 3" on 9/9.

I don't think my brother yet realizes his window for snow is now longer than mine. He's only been in CO 3 months.
Came from Wilsonville where it snows maybe 1 day a year. 

Does Denver even legit get 4 seasons? Or is it 3?

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8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

That map is very problematic as it labels California State Route 89 as US route 89 which is about 1,000 miles to the east of there in like Utah. I'm not even that good at GIS and that's just a bush league effort for accuracy there.

Yeah, the signage there is definitely not correct. US route 89 actually runs all the way up here and to the Canadian border.

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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2 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I don't think my brother yet realizes his window for snow is now longer than mine. He's only been in CO 3 months.
Came from Wilsonville where it snows maybe 1 day a year. 

Does Denver even legit get 4 seasons? Or is it 3?

Yev is your brother?!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

When was your first snow last year? I still can't believe I saw 3" on 9/9.

The record cold trough that destroyed half of Oregon.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, snow drift said:

I'll take September over June any day. June often has a horrible spring hangover, but September is often benign with lots of sunny and warm days.

June is usually my least favorite month here... just a huge gap between expectations with the very long days and the often gloomy reality.    July - September are usually the most reliable months in terms of nice weather.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

June is usually my least favorite month here... just a huge gap between expectations with the very long days and the often gloomy reality.    July - September are usually the most reliable months in terms of nice weather.

September might be the best month around here. 

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36 minutes ago, Kayla said:

The fire fighters did an amazing job with structure protection yesterday when the fire actually jumped 89 while keeping it mostly out of the basin. They definitely caught a bit of a break with the winds more from the southwest vs the south but either way just an incredible job.

1584411071_ScreenShot2021-09-01at12_03_26PM.thumb.png.df2bccbec83ca1105e59f4321fbef42d.png

 

NE winds currently pushing back on the fire. Containment continues to inch upward now at 20%. C'MON!!!!image.png

 

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30 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

I don't think my brother yet realizes his window for snow is now longer than mine. He's only been in CO 3 months.
Came from Wilsonville where it snows maybe 1 day a year. 

Does Denver even legit get 4 seasons? Or is it 3?

Where in CO does he live?

Definitely 4 seasons, but of course 3 of them can vary wildly.

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18 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

June is usually my least favorite month here... just a huge gap between expectations with the very long days and the often gloomy reality.    July - September are usually the most reliable months in terms of nice weather.

June is often a waste of good sun angle. 

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12Z ECMWF is pretty much dry for the holiday weekend... and much drier and less troughy for later next week compared to the 00Z run.  

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

June is usually my least favorite month here... just a huge gap between expectations with the very long days and the often gloomy reality.    July - September are usually the most reliable months in terms of nice weather.

Tough case to make since 2012 overall.

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