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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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28 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Taken from twitter

FE0AA5B6-2560-426B-B848-71B197872FFC.jpeg

Looks like a boob job surgery diagram.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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The models are showing a pretty significant cold air mass in play around day 10.  The ECMWF suite of models has been more favorable in showing a shot of cool air for us than the GFS, but the 18z GFS is moving that way.  We shall see how the details develop.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

So similar to last year’s La Niña…A very dull November-January incoming… Woo Hoo!! 

Very doubtful.

Another, perhaps more important thing, to look at is the MEI, and it is already in stronger Nina territory than last winter ever got.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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For those who think this is just an endless repeat of the same pattern take a look at the 500mb anoms since mid August.  No doubt things have shifted big time in spite of the continued dry conditions.

 

cold.gif

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For those who think this is just an endless repeat of the same pattern take a look at the 500mb anoms since mid August.  No doubt things have shifted big time in spite of the continued dry conditions.

 

cold.gif

Retrograde!

 

00z GFS in 4 hours 16 minutes

00z ECMWF in 6 hours 31 minutes

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40 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For those who think this is just an endless repeat of the same pattern take a look at the 500mb anoms since mid August.  No doubt things have shifted big time in spite of the continued dry conditions.

 

cold.gif

Don’t think there’s anyone that thinks there hasn’t been a meaningful pattern change overall since mid august. It’s been cooler overall but it’s been dry which kind of gives it the feel that it’s a continuation of the same. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Euro seasonal has a sharp Alaska ridge with some polar blocking as well. Looks more meridional than zonal.

Would be lots of cold available on our side of the pole with that pattern, but probably dry as well for PNW region.

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31 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Cooler today than yesterday afternoon which actually felt a little muggy. 72 after a low of 59. 

It is perfect today.  Lower temps are drier air.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro seasonal has a sharp Alaska ridge with some polar blocking as well. Looks more meridional than zonal.

Would be lots of cold available on our side of the pole with that pattern, but probably dry as well for PNW region.

It wouldn't shock me if the overall dry pattern persists this winter, but with cold temps.  I think if any month is going to be wet it will be November.

That is a very strong blocking signal for this far out BTW.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Euro seasonal also bullish on January. Would be a truckload of cold flooding into the lower-48 with that pattern.

Usually this model paints a sea of orange, so this is interesting to see.

02EFAADE-A390-4835-9F24-044BDC76D95B.png

5B1E850F-54EF-4595-8BC1-28A37FAA647A.png

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Just took a peak at the ECMWF seasonals and I'll be damned if it doesn't have Jan as the most likely to be cold.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro seasonal also bullish on January. Would be a truckload of cold flooding into the lower-48 with that pattern.

Usually this model paints a sea of orange, so this is interesting to see.

02EFAADE-A390-4835-9F24-044BDC76D95B.png

5B1E850F-54EF-4595-8BC1-28A37FAA647A.png

You beat me by 4 minutes. 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Looking at the monthly surface pressure anoms shows an even more robust cold signal for the NW in January.  Also strongly hints at a wet November.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Euro seasonal also bullish on January. Would be a truckload of cold flooding into the lower-48 with that pattern.

Usually this model paints a sea of orange, so this is interesting to see.

02EFAADE-A390-4835-9F24-044BDC76D95B.png

5B1E850F-54EF-4595-8BC1-28A37FAA647A.png

It's about time that we get a winter with the cold building on our side of the globe. Last winter Putin hogged it for the first ~75% of the winter

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29 minutes ago, Mr Marine Layer said:

Blue looks too far north.

Nor for up here.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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26 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Really about rain at this point. We're in desperate need of it however we can get it.

Eh....let's just skip the rain and go straight to massive snowstorms this winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

 

Really about rain at this point. We're in desperate need of it however we can get it.

Yeah... the 12 EPS still kept the bulk of rain up in BC.   

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-2225600.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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29 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Please tell me you dont have a dedicated folder on your desktop like Tim does....?

I have hundreds of maps on my desktop because I am too lazy to clean it up... I don't save any posts but I wish I did because that is easier than trying to remember what people said and finding it in the search.   😀

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Just now, Omegaraptor said:

You know, he never specified where.

That is the Phil method... be vague enough so you can always be right.    

I am kidding Phil... its a joke.  😃

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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