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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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This time of year is excruciating for me. On the precipice of autumn, but it’s still summer and will be for another month.

Always hangs on till the bitter end.

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35 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Not that it matters because its so far out... but Phil focusing just on my area getting rain (which always happens regardless of the pattern) is pretty funny given that this would also drench so many areas that actually need it.  😁

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-2355200.png

Hillsboro

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00Z ECMWF significantly backed off the troughing in the long range compared to its 12Z run. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Good f*cking lord who has the time to remember and save all these posts. Lots of times I can’t even remember what anyone on here said a week ago unless it was REALLY noteable. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Beautiful sunrise this morning sky is glowing pink…too bad I’m at work and don’t have a full view. 53 currently. 

 

857D66B5-C359-4196-9C71-D05FC8002CF2.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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13 hours ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Good thing Costco isn’t out of toilet paper anymore 

At least those of us on the forum have sufficient time to stockpile before the rest of the masses figure it out....

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19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Going to be raining tomorrow morning...

ecmwf-deterministic-washington-precip_3hr_inch-1102400.png

Could be the biggest one here in months!

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Very mild morning, a balmy 55

heading out the door. Spectacular sunrise. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Sunset last night was nice too. 

8D69DE22-A361-4D54-BDC3-7BFC22B7155C.jpeg

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very mild morning, a balmy 55

heading out the door. Spectacular sunrise. 

Not too often i end up cooler than you…got down to 52 here. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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The run to run difference between this GFS run and the last is absolutely insane as far as 500-heights go.

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

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Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Tim didn’t post the EPS mean..must be troughy.

Edit: Troughy is an understatement. D**n.

Edited by Phil
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2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Tim didn’t post the EPS mean..must be troughy.

Edit: Troughy is an understatement. D**n.

😀

Its about the same as previous runs... most of the rain stays up in BC.      We have seen this movie before.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-qpf_anom_15day-2225600.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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00Z EPS showed a GOA trough in the long range as previous runs... might bring some rain but the center of the troughing stays up north.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1630972800-1630972800-1632268800-10.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

00Z EPS showed a GOA trough in the long range as previous runs... might bring some rain but the center of the troughing stays up north.  

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1630972800-1630972800-1632268800-10.gif

It will probably trend wetter this time.

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Just now, Phil said:

It will probably trend wetter this time.

We will see.

The 12Z GFS looks similar but its not as wet as you would think. 

 

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1707200.png

gfs-deterministic-namer-precip_3hr_inch-1707200.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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3 minutes ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Looking really wet the next 15 days. Not. Not even a glimmer of hope.

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

Eventually that storm doors gonna open up. Clocks ticking. I’m very much looking forward to it!

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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2 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Eventually that storm doors gonna open up. Clocks ticking. I’m very much looking forward to it!

It most definitely will open eventually.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Might hit 80 today here…good chance it could be the last one we will see. Haven’t hit 80 since august 15th so it’s been a solid run. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

It most definitely will open eventually.  

Kind of a had a feeling it might be a bit delayed this year after the cool second half of august…even though it didn’t yield any rain lots of times that’s a sign that we will be waiting til later in September for things to get going. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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1 minute ago, TacomaWaWx said:

Kind of a had a feeling it might be a bit delayed this year after the cool second half of august…even though it didn’t yield any rain lots of times that’s a sign that we will be waiting til later in September for things to get going. 

Don't fret. The storm train has left the station. It should arrive no later than early October. It may arrive even earlier. Pandora's box

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4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Don't fret. The storm train has left the station. It should arrive no later than early October. It may arrive even earlier. Pandora's box

Yeah I’d like for it to show up soon…but I’ll just enjoy the weather we’ve got now until it gets here. Really hasn’t been a bad run atleast here in western WA no smoke and comfortable temps…just too dry for me. Should get a little rain tonight and tomorrow to satisfy me until then lol. 

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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25 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Don't fret. The storm train has left the station. It should arrive no later than early October. It may arrive even earlier. Pandora's box

There’s no way to know that. We have had a lot of miserably dry cool season months lately. And definitely a lot of late starts/early ends to the storm season.

Plus you live over on the dry side of the state. You are starting to sound suspiciously like you live in North Bend.

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49 minutes ago, Jesse said:

Phil’s gonna scare away all the rain again.

Low of 56 here. 63 currently. Let’s see if it hits 90 today.

I don’t think I scare away rain like Jim scares away troughing, considering I’ve had a foot of rain over the last 4 weeks.

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16 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There’s no way to know that. We have had a lot of blocky and miserably dry cool season months lately. And definitely a lot of late starts/early ends to the storm season.

Plus you live over on the dry side of the state. You are starting to sound suspiciously like you live in North Bend.

Blocky is a good thing in the middle of winter. ☃️

At least if it’s in the right location. None of the top-tier PNW winters would have happened without blocking.

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34 minutes ago, Jesse said:

There’s no way to know that. We have had a lot of miserably dry cool season months lately. And definitely a lot of late starts/early ends to the storm season.

Plus you live over on the dry side of the state. You are starting to sound suspiciously like you live in North Bend.

Hey, be nice! When I was a child, I remember trips to Seattle to visit my relatives. I always thought North Bend was very dark and dreary. I think Western Washington is wonderful, but I could never live there. I always liked Ellensburg and Vantage for some reason. I still have a lot of relatives over there, and a friend of mine just moved to Vancouver. I guess I need to take a trip over there one of these days.

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13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Blocky is a good thing the middle of.

At least if it’s in the right location. None of the PNW winters would 

Haven’t you heard, all of our winters are just an endless storm train 🌧😩 😭 

Pandora’s box.

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5 minutes ago, snow drift said:

Hey, be nice! When I was a child, I remember trips to Seattle to visit my relatives. I always thought North Bend was very dark and dreary. I think Western Washington is wonderful, but I could never live there. I always liked Ellensburg and Vantage for some reason. I still have a lot of relatives over there, and a friend of mine just moved to Vancouver. I need to take a trip over there one of these days.

It can be!   But it can also be sunny for longs periods of time... and is also sunnier in the winter in certain patterns that feature low level inversions.   An east wind often means sun and downsloping warmth here in the cold season

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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