Jump to content
The Weather Forums

September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is pretty much dry for the holiday weekend... and much drier and less troughy for later next week compared to the 00Z run.  

Some nice Aleutian ridging popping up at day 9 and 10 which is along the same lines of the GFS. First chilly and moist airmass of the season incoming the week of the 13th??

  • Like 3

Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 16.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 16.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 29.7º

Coldest low: 25.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Tough case to make since 2012 overall.

Ehhh... June 2013 and 2016 were pretty gloomy.    Last year it rained on 18 out of 30 days in June here.      This year was well on its way at the half-way point with rain and gloomy conditions for most of the first half of the month.     Its still my least favorite month overall.   My expectations and climo are very far part that month... and climo is probably not going to change much.  😃

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Kayla said:

Some nice Aleutian ridging popping at day 9 and 10 which is along the same lines of the GFS. Chilly and moist airmass incoming the week of the 13th??

Maybe... but even at day 10 it still has a quite a way to go to get to a rainy pattern.    That troughing could easily just spin away up to the north.    All it will take is Jim to declare cold victory.  😁

 

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1361600.png

  • Like 1
  • Excited 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

2018 had a record breaking september cold snap in the BC interior  around the same time the gfs is advertising. And December that year was a total crap fest 💩. Just saying. 

We did have a nice pre Christmas Windstorm!  
Then flooding rains at the end of the month! 

9CBE6C61-4B5F-4702-932D-E406B8414573.jpeg

E390BB3F-1E60-45D8-B93A-6B522A652B59.jpeg

  • Like 2
  • Windy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z GEFS shows a pleasant start to September as well... technically it shows that today is the coldest day in sight.  

 

gfs-ensemble-all-KSEA-daily_tmin_tmax-0497600.jpg

  • Like 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Where in CO does he live?

Definitely 4 seasons, but of course 3 of them can vary wildly.

Currently in Brighton, his roommate has parents there. He mentioned ending up in Westminster soon where you are. That's pretty close to Denver.

  • Like 1

[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I sure hope we have some sort of interesting weather during the regular season down this way.

We haven't had snow, an Arctic airmass, windstorm, AR. Literally nothing for 2 and a half years except a devastating firestorm in Sept, 2020. Our coldest temp last season was 23F on Oct 26. We've had only 4 sub-40 highs over the last 2 and a half years and I can't find another 2 winter stretches that futile on record.

Please give us some positivity here...

  • Windy 1
  • Weenie 3

Springfield, Oregon cold season 21-22 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 40F (Nov 21, 2021)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Nov 17, 2021)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 4 (Most recent: Nov 22, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F) *Longest streak without a sub-freezing high on record*
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Big tornado just tore through Annapolis. Rips the roofs off those office buildings like it’s nothing. Not common out this way.

 

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1
  • Windy 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Tough case to make since 2012 overall.

Sure there's been a couple gloomier ones since then. I remember there being a lot of cold core funnel reports in June 2013 in western Oregon. Also was one of my wetter Junes as of recently.

[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With meteorological summer 2021 ended, here's how SEA fared against a "normal" in the temps and precip. department. Just for fun. 

For Temps: 

  • Jun and Jul. both months saw above average temps. With Jun seeing the greatest departure. 
  • Aug actually ended up slightly below normal. 
  • Jun-Aug average was ~67.2F

For Precip. 

  • Jun saw well above normal rainfall. 
  • Jul and Aug fell behind. No precip recorded for Jul. 
  • Jun-Aug average was about 0.67", well below normal! 

temps.png

PRECIP.png

Source: Data taken from NWS/NOAA climate site.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/monthdisp.php?stn=KSEA&p=temperature&mon=8&wfo=sew&year=2021 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Tough case to make since 2012 overall.

Thank you.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wouldn't shock me to see a fall progression like 2012 or 2016 eventually. We'll just have to get there first. 

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

CFS says cool/wet January. SCORE. 

cfs-mon_01_T2ma_us_4.png

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_us_4.png

  • Like 2
  • Excited 1
  • Snow 2
  • Troll 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Thank you.

Still generally lives up to its gloomy reputation up here.    2013, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020, and the first half in 2021 fit bill here.   And I clearly remember it being different down there in many of those periods and being jealous.  😁

  • Downvote 1
  • Weenie 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting consolidation of ensemble members towards a cooler solution after D10. 

It looks transient... the 12Z EPS is not exactly cold at day 13 and 14.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850_anom_stream-1707200 (1).png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of cold ensemble members after the 10th.  In fact a few get down to 0 on the 850s.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting consolidation of ensemble members towards a cooler solution after D10. 

Great minds think alike!

  • Like 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

I sure hope we have some sort of interesting weather during the regular season down this way.

We haven't had snow, an Arctic airmass, windstorm, AR. Literally nothing for 2 and a half years except a devastating firestorm in Sept, 2020. Our coldest temp last season was 23F on Oct 26. We've had only 4 sub-40 highs over the last 2 and a half years and I can't find another 2 winter stretches that futile on record.

Please give us some positivity here...

Portland gets a Jan 1950 redux while you are trapped endlessly on the warm side of the Arctic front for the entire winter.

  • Excited 1
  • lol 1
  • Snow 1
  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I don't see any heat or offshore flow events in sight on any of the models.  

I also don't see much rain or cold temps.    Its looks consistently pleasant and generally sunny for the foreseeable future.  

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Regardless it looks like any burst of warmth will be pretty brief this month.  The models have really turned around from a couple days ago.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Cloud said:

With meteorological summer 2021 ended, here's how SEA fared against a "normal" in the temps and precip. department. Just for fun. 

For Temps: 

  • Jun and Jul. both months saw above average temps. With Jun seeing the greatest departure. 
  • Aug actually ended up slightly below normal. 
  • Jun-Aug average was ~67.2F

For Precip. 

  • Jun saw well above normal rainfall. 
  • Jul and Aug fell behind. No precip recorded for Jul. 
  • Jun-Aug average was about 0.67", well below normal! 

temps.png

PRECIP.png

Source: Data taken from NWS/NOAA climate site.

https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/monthdisp.php?stn=KSEA&p=temperature&mon=8&wfo=sew&year=2021 

SEA was pretty remarkable for how close to average Jul / Aug ended up.  A lot of places a little more inland were quite a bit warmer until Aug 15.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 29

Lows 32 or below = 7

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Summer starts in April down here. 

  • Excited 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2021-22: T"                         2021-22: 8.44" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't see any heat or offshore flow events in sight on any of the models.  

I also don't see much rain or cold temps.    Its looks consistently pleasant and generally sunny for the foreseeable future.  

You don’t have to put away your boat anytime soon

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Currently in Brighton, his roommate has parents there. He mentioned ending up in Westminster soon where you are. That's pretty close to Denver.

Gotcha. I should update my profile, actually in Denver now. But yeah, Westminster is just 15-20 min northwest of downtown.

  • Like 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

You don’t have to put away your boat anytime soon

We plan to be on the water this holiday weekend. 😎

  • Excited 2

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Sure there's been a couple gloomier ones since then. I remember there being a lot of cold core funnel reports in June 2013 in western Oregon. Also was one of my wetter Junes as of recently.

Yeah, but also plenty of warm, dry, sunny Junes since then. No reasonable person could say it's been "gloomy".

  • Popcorn 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but also plenty of warm, dry, sunny Junes since then. No reasonable person could say it's been "gloomy".

Its not the same across the entire region though.   Its still managed to be pretty gloomy in June up here in my area over the last decade which is climo of course.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Regardless it looks like any burst of warmth will be pretty brief this month.  The models have really turned around from a couple days ago.

It looks much better now... a big heat wave and offshore flow would just ruin it with tons of smoke like last September.    

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

SEA was pretty remarkable for how close to average Jul / Aug ended up.  A lot of places a little more inland were quite a bit warmer until Aug 15.

I just find it remarkable that the station ended up slightly below normal or normal considering where it was at the first 15 days. Precip on the hand sucks…. Very dry. Aug ended up 8th driest all-time. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

HOPEFULLY NEVER AM I RIGHT OR AM I RIGHT

LavishBossyCopperhead-size_restricted.gif

Nooooo... that would be no fun.    Can't snow when its 70.  😃

  • Like 1

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lala land GFS is mighty chilly. 

Early cold threepeat?

I would not complain. The last two winters really weren’t too terrible up this way. One of them even had a pretty nice January snow event. I suspect many from Portland south would not be thrilled, however.

It's called clown range for a reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Early cold threepeat?

I would not complain. The last two winters really weren’t too terrible up this way. One of them even had a pretty nice January snow event. I suspect many from Portland south would not be thrilled, however.

Would that be Jan 2020? It showed promise in K-Falls for a brief week.

[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

June is generally gloomier and wetter than September. I think that's a safe assessment.

Depends on where you're talking and for what period, I guess.

SEA's long term average shows June to have an average max almost identical to September, but September is about 20% wetter.

Since 2013, SEA has seen wetter Septembers than Junes 6 out of 8 years.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

June is generally gloomier and wetter than September. I think that's a safe assessment.

Usually in many areas. There is September 2019 but that consisted of just a couple wet events. Most of the month was dry. A few strong thunderstorms can make a wet Sep as we saw in 2013.

  • Rain 1

[Signature in link]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Usually in many areas. There is September 2019 but that consisted of just a couple wet events. Most of the month was dry. A few strong thunderstorms can make a wet Sep as we saw in 2013.

Sept 2019 was very gloomy. Fall arrived right after Labor day. 

  • Like 1
  • Storm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Depends on where you're talking and for what period, I guess.

SEA's long term average shows June to have an average max almost identical to September, but September is about 20% wetter.

Since 2013, SEA has seen wetter Septembers than Junes 6 out of 8 years.

I'm saying in general. There are exceptions. Spokane averages less rain in September than it does in the month of June. September has a possible sunshine % of 72. June has a possible sunshine % of 68. June is more of a spring month, so I expect gloom, rain, and wind. If I had the choice between September and June, I'd hedge my bets on September. Of course it could turn out like 2000 or 2019. They were both gloomy and cool.

  • Storm 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • iFred unpinned this topic

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...