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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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Up to 74 here now and sunny with a SW breeze... sort of strange because a SW breeze is normally cooler and usually means low clouds.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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34 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Goddammit!!

1632117600-2V3X2qXhTwU.png

1632160800-22TRdToEokg.png

If KLMT gets more than PDX some of this is probably from the next t'storms modeled around Friday.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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For a little perspective, in 129 years of record keeping at SLE, they have recorded less than 1" of rain in September 50 times. September is a dry month in the Willamette Valley. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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ended up with a whopping .01" this morning.  temp stayed in the mid-upper 60's between midnight and about 7am, when it briefly dropped to 60.  Currently back up to 70 and very muggy.

 

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10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For a little perspective, in 129 years of record keeping at SLE, they have recorded less than 1" of rain in September 50 times. September is a dry month in the Willamette Valley. 

There's been a few times a trace happened (occurred last year too) here but the average is more like 1/4".

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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September 2019 had 1.87" here, but T" last year. 2016 was dry too with 0.12" though just the following October was a strongly wet month. Just shows how wildly different these transition months can be from year to year.

Also only about half the time I record t'storms in September, can be hit and miss there. A good chunk of 2019's precip was from a few of them.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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1 hour ago, Joshua Lake Oswego said:

Low pressure always ends up north of where it is initially forecasted. Usually by at least a couple of hundred miles. I have seen it time and time and time again. Same thing with atmospheric rivers. 

Could just be windshield wiper effect. GFS is especially notorious for that.

There has been some tendency across guidance to a stronger vortex over the Canadian Archipelago, which would not surprise me in the least, though it seems low pass analogs do increasingly build -NAO/-PNA as autumn progresses. November is downright blocky in the majority of analogs.

But early/middle parts of autumn could be vulnerable to +NAO/+TNH should the IO component of the low/medium pass prove resilient, imo.

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Just now, Phil said:

Could just be windshield wiper effect. GFS is especially notorious for that.

There has been some tendency across guidance to a stronger vortex over the Canadian Archipelago, which would not surprise me in the least, though low pass analogs do increasingly build -NAO/-PNA as autumn progresses. November is downright blocky in the majority of analogs.

But early/middle parts of autumn could be vulnerable to +NAO/+TNH should the IO component of the low/medium pass prove resilient.

November 1985😈

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Maybe Fred could perma-ban summer.

Hate sweating my face off under March sun angles. Stupid season is never ending.

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Need this inside 5 days

Latest.png

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For a little perspective, in 129 years of record keeping at SLE, they have recorded less than 1" of rain in September 50 times. September is a dry month in the Willamette Valley. 

And yet, 7 of the past 8 have had over 1".

It's semi-interesting, for SEA September averages almost the exact same rainfall as May with 1.74", but there have been more extremely dry Septembers.

 

A forum for the end of the world.

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That Devil's Knob fire in SW Oregon absolutely took off yesterday. If we hadn't been through last year, we would be pretty astonished by the fires burning in W. Oregon right now. 

Bull of the Woods Complex: 17,201 acres

Middle Fork Complex: 26, 564

Rough Patch/Jack: 43,178

Devil's Knob Complex: 50,920

Total: 137,863

Rough Patch/Jack/Devil's Knob are pretty much a 60-70 mile line of fire along the Umpqua Basin. It's insane. 

 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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82F and smoky. Feels like most of the summer.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Very interesting morning. When I went to bed last night at midnight it was 60 degrees. 
This morning when I let the dogs out at 6am it was 67 degrees! Had a wet deck but nothing registered on the gauge. Felt tropical! 

Some people actually thought you had left for more than just the evening!

Nothing happened while you were gone.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Very interesting morning. When I went to bed last night at midnight it was 60 degrees. 
This morning when I let the dogs out at 6am it was 67 degrees! Had a wet deck but nothing registered on the gauge. Felt tropical! 

Forums is like crack huh? 😂 

it was a warm night here as well… it stayed in the mid-60s throughout. 

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6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Very interesting morning. When I went to bed last night at midnight it was 60 degrees. 
This morning when I let the dogs out at 6am it was 67 degrees! Had a wet deck but nothing registered on the gauge. Felt tropical! 

Good to see you back man.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Total rain on the 12Z GFS gets pretty crazy for SW BC...

 

gfs-deterministic-washington-total_precip_inch-2441600.png

Been noticing that it’s trending south as the current pattern kinda gives way. W.Wa will probably get smack by then if it keeps going.

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3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Some people actually thought you had left for more than just the evening!

Nothing happened while you were gone.

Yeah I was going to take an extended break but then I saw another member is taking a break so I knew I could post without a nasty response. Seemed like even my observational posts about the current conditions at my house with no preferences noted would get a nasty response from him. Too many years of that caught up to me yesterday I guess. I’m not perfect but I also don’t tell people to F themselves either. 

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2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I was going to take an extended break but then I saw another member is taking a break so I knew I could post without a nasty response. Seemed like even my observational posts about the current conditions at my house with no preferences noted would get a nasty response from him. Too many years of that caught up to me yesterday I guess. I’m not perfect but I also don’t tell people to F themselves either. 

Feels like we have the ingredients for a Jan 1950 repeat on our hands.

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5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yeah I was going to take an extended break but then I saw another member is taking a break so I knew I could post without a nasty response. Seemed like even my observational posts about the current conditions at my house with no preferences noted would get a nasty response from him. Too many years of that caught up to me yesterday I guess. I’m not perfect but I also don’t tell people to F themselves either. 

https://youtu.be/OK4_fDHv-SQ

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Just now, Cloud said:

SEA is well on its way for another 79F day today. Would be amazing if it does just touch 79.

Only 72 at SEA last hour... up to 82 here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Only 72 at SEA last hour... up to 82 here.

I think there is a warm up expected in the next several hours by 4pm. This seems to be on pace with the other days that hit 79. Yesterday was a couple degrees warmer at this point! 
 

You’re also getting the same WSW/SW flow as SEA but still manages a good 9-10F warmer. Really unusual! 

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It's early Fall and we're still getting graphics on dry lightning. Last time I had dry storms was in Sep 2011.

This year just sucks for convection.

WeatherStory1.png

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

I think there is a warm up expected in the next several hours by 4pm. This seems to be on pace with the other days that hit 79. Yesterday was a couple degrees warmer at this point! 
 

You’re also getting the same WSW/SW flow as SEA but still manages a good 9-10F warmer. Really unusual! 

Yeah... up to 75 now at SEA.   Another 79 incoming!   Still 82 here so 7 degrees warmer. 

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I'll be gone the last week of September/first half of October, expect rainy season to be in full swing when I return. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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