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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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Jesse and I rarely got along over the years and he could be downright nasty at times but I still appreciated the weather knowledge he provided to the forum. We all contribute a certain amount to this forum in our own way, so that piece of the puzzle will be missing with his permaban in effect. 

At the same time, unlike some other posters on here who have actually tried to change their bad forum habits (or at least made it appear as such), Jesse never really attempted to do that. That's an issue, imo. Keep treating people like sh*t and eventually it'll come back to bite you. Ultimately though I think this will keep a fair amount of the unnecessary drama away and for that reason alone, I'm good with it. 

With that out of the way, it was a very pleasant evening for our nightly walk earlier. Temp was sitting around 74 after a high of 83. Looking forward to the potential upcoming pattern change!

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Weather station: https://maplevalleywx.com

 

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8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still in the hospital. She gets nauseated and vomits whenever she gets up to walk around. They have her on blood thinners but she seems to be having memory problems. When I helped her 2 days ago she clearly had hit her head around her orbital and I think combined with the heart attack and clots in the heart and lungs it’s going to be a long recovery process. Once she is home I really want us all to move because we can’t all help her unless me, my wife and her sister can all take care of her. My wife’s sister has the more stable and better-paying gig in downtown Indianapolis so we would be leaving here. But selling the house here then buying a house over there and moving everything over there is going to be a long process.

If she dies then my wife and I don’t make enough money to pay the mortgage on this place so my wife would quit her job so we could go through both houses and then move to Indiana.

That sucks man. If there’s anything we can do say the word.  Have you thought about a gofundme?

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't know how much you like roaming around random rural areas, but the country between Scio and Sweet Home is beautiful. McDowell Creek Falls, Lacomb area, Roaring River Park and Fish Hatchery. You'll see a lot of turkeys too. 

Random rural areas are the place to be! If I have time I always take country roads through the Willamette Valley and avoid I-5. 

Got some very good eggs for $3/dozen from a farmer near Monitor once on the way home from Silver Falls.

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The interesting thing is only the summer has really changed that dramatically...and of course January.  All in all we have had a lot of ok winters beginning with 2006-07, and a few really good ones.

Despite some notable winter events, the South Willamette Valley has mainly been much drier over the last decade than previously.

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10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:

My thoughts on the drama, or when members are banned. Well, without delving into the drama or creating any, because that's definitely not my intent. It's sort of difficult. I always hate seeing people banned, drama, then the person comes back and either truly can or has changed, or its more of the same. When you're talking about a regular and long time member that can create a few more complex issues with more members likely to either engage in the situation chiming in or feel perhaps pulled one way or another. If it's a lesser known member it's far easier for an Admin or Owner of a group/forum to deal with that. That's just the way it is. At the end of the day I just hate seeing regulars be banned because obviously for a number of years they did add a lot to the forum, or their input was valued, but sometimes circumstances arise and you have to do what you have to do even after many chances were given to that member. Alright then.

00z ECMWF in 19 minutes!

I’d like to see him back at some point, but he’s been wearing his heart on his sleeve about our tough run of summers/drought conditions. Understandable on some levels but there was a lot of toxicity there that should have been easier to curb with some self-awareness.  I don’t think it was healthy for him. Kind of like an alcoholic hanging out in a bar all the time, and not in the lovable Norm Peterson way…

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

I’d like to see him back at some point, but he’s been wearing his heart on his sleeve about our tough run of summers/drought conditions. Understandable on some levels but there was a lot of toxicity there that should have been easier to curb with some self-awareness.  I don’t think it was healthy for him.  Kind of like an alcoholic hanging out in a bar all the time, and not in the lovable Norm Peterson way…

Agreed, as would I.... I don't say these things to give Fred a hard time, nor to question the decision he's made. It also bothers me when someone who has shown a lot of value and great input, but routinely causes issues. I just don't get it.

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8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Jesse and I rarely got along over the years and he could be downright nasty at times but I still appreciated the weather knowledge he provided to the forum. We all contribute a certain amount to this forum in our own way, so that piece of the puzzle will be missing with his permaban in effect. 

At the same time, unlike some other posters on here who have actually tried to change their bad forum habits (or at least made it appear as such), Jesse never really attempted to do that. That's an issue, imo. Keep treating people like sh*t and eventually it'll come back to bite you. Ultimately though I think this will keep a fair amount of the unnecessary drama away and for that reason alone, I'm good with it. 

With that out of the way, it was a very pleasant evening for our nightly walk earlier. Temp was sitting around 74 after a high of 83. Looking forward to the potential upcoming pattern change!

I've lurked or posted on this site since 2007. I'm familiar with most of the long time posters on this site. Jesse, who used to go by OrchardsJ, has a strong personality and can be difficult to get along with. I even had a run in with him back in 2009. After that altercation, I didn't post on this site for many years. Regardless of my past and present experiences, I harbor no ill will toward Jesse, and I wish him the best.

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17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I’d like to see him back at some point, but he’s been wearing his heart on his sleeve about our tough run of summers/drought conditions. Understandable on some levels but there was a lot of toxicity there that should have been easier to curb with some self-awareness.  I don’t think it was healthy for him. Kind of like an alcoholic hanging out in a bar all the time, and not in the lovable Norm Peterson way…

I've kind of been there myself at times.  It's just not worth it to get so worked up about this stuff...although I still do sometimes.  I'm bummed that he got banned.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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I feel I owe it to my dad as a gesture of gratitude and respect to mention that his lifelong friend passed away due to complications from COVID a few days back.  They had known each other since the late 1940s, and to the best of my knowledge they have not a missed a single year of going out on numerous hunting and fishing trips.  I knew him pretty well myself and was shocked to hear the news.  This is a guy who seemed to tough to ever die, but in the end it got him.  He will be missed.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, JBolin said:

We don't really need to delve into the LR right now, do we? 


I mean if there's snow to be had below 6,000 then I'm all for it.

Haha, well, we always seem to delve into the long range though. Well, most of us. Long range GFS was something else.

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The ECMWF is kold for the 6 to 10 period.  Three solid cold shots.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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10 minutes ago, DJ Droppin said:
00z ECMWF - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, 10 Day Rainfall totals.
The EURO like the GFS also features a significant pattern change and things turn wet long range. Fall is coming soon! Wetter runs ahead? C'MON!!!!
floop-ecmwf-2021090900.500h_anom_na.gif
May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'over model run Total Accumulated QPF F240 Valid: 2021-09-19 2021 Centreo Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) This service based dat and products ofthe CMWF. Init: Thu 2021-09-09 00z ECMWF Hi-Res 0.1 0.2 www.pivotalweath 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 .8 2 2.5 piv#tal weather 3.5'

Not to mention way below normal temps.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, JBolin said:

Kokanee Kold?

Yup.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

That sucks man. If there’s anything we can do say the word.  Have you thought about a gofundme?

Yes, I'm thinking it might not be the worst idea to start one for this.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @358jerseys4hope

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2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I feel I owe it to my dad as a gesture of gratitude and respect to mention that his lifelong friend passed away due to complications from COVID a few days back.  They had known each other since the late 1940s, and to the best of my knowledge they have not a missed a single year of going out on numerous hunting and fishing trips.  I knew him pretty well myself and was shocked to hear the news.  This is a guy who seemed to tough to ever die, but in the end it got him.  He will be missed.

Really sorry to hear this and condolences to your dad and the family. 
 

As some of you may recall when I shared a piece of my personal life with you all on here when I lost my mom to covid earlier this year and next week will mark the 6 months mark…. how time flies. The shock, the pain, and sadness still have not subsided… don’t think it ever will and the best you can do is manage.
 

Being lifelong friends, I can imagine how your dad must feel. I pray that he finds comfort and for you to find yours as well. 

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3 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Still in the hospital. She gets nauseated and vomits whenever she gets up to walk around. They have her on blood thinners but she seems to be having memory problems. When I helped her 2 days ago she clearly had hit her head around her orbital and I think combined with the heart attack and clots in the heart and lungs it’s going to be a long recovery process. Once she is home I really want us all to move because we can’t all help her unless me, my wife and her sister can all take care of her. My wife’s sister has the more stable and better-paying gig in downtown Indianapolis so we would be leaving here. But selling the house here then buying a house over there and moving everything over there is going to be a long process.

If she dies then my wife and I don’t make enough money to pay the mortgage on this place so my wife would quit her job so we could go through both houses and then move to Indiana.

I’m so sorry man. Thoughts and prayers.

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2 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:
00z ECMWF - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, 10 Day Rainfall totals.
The EURO like the GFS also features a significant pattern change and things turn wet long range. Fall is coming soon! Wetter runs ahead? C'MON!!!!
floop-ecmwf-2021090900.500h_anom_na.gif
May be an image of map, sky and text that says 'over model run Total Accumulated QPF F240 Valid: 2021-09-19 2021 Centreo Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) This service based dat and products ofthe CMWF. Init: Thu 2021-09-09 00z ECMWF Hi-Res 0.1 0.2 www.pivotalweath 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.6 .8 2 2.5 piv#tal weather 3.5'

Poor Tim. :( 

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I'm always talking about using the 10th percentile on the Euro and GFS ensembles when predicting precipitation more than a few days out. 

The Euro 10th percentile is .46'' at PDX in the next 15 days. 90th percentile is 2.65''. The site I use doesn't have the two most recent GFS runs.

I will put a lot of money on the actual amount being much, much closer to the 10th percentile than the 90th percentile. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we underperform even the 10th percentile.  

 

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This is really nice. West side gets rain later in the run but like Andrew said this is a huge blessing for eastern OR. 

1EAA98FA-20B2-4B5D-9A0C-235A475A84F3.jpeg

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Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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58 minutes ago, TacomaWaWx said:

This is really nice. West side gets rain later in the run but like Andrew said this is a huge blessing for eastern OR. 

1EAA98FA-20B2-4B5D-9A0C-235A475A84F3.jpeg

Models are real consistent for this to occur. This would put a huge dent in the Bull Complex fire, Middle Fork Complex, Devil's Knob Complex, and Rough Patch Complex. This would drastically reduce the fire danger as well.

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7 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF is kold for the 6 to 10 period.  Three solid cold shots.

Might be chilly enough to see some snow fly at some of the Cascade passes up north.

Fast forward 3 months and this pattern would be belting cold smoke pow into the Cascade ski resorts.

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Overnight lows have been on the mild side since our nice run of chilly nights. 54 this morning and have had a couple +60s the last few days too. Pretty much wiped out our negative departure of overnight lows. 

Monthly rainfall-2.23”

Cold season rainfall-

Sub 40 highs-0

Sub 32 highs-0

Sub 32 lows-0

Snowfall-0.0”

Coldest High-63

Coldest Low-42

 

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Lows have certainly warmed since 2 days ago. Had 86/49 (37 day before!), now looks like 45 for a low.

Last night a little bit of ash fell, maybe that's the last time we see it with these storms/rain chances coming up.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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After the 16th boys the rain train gets going. At first it won’t be much of a “jet stream”. More like a “Cessna” stream but I assure you it will get cranking.

Put a lock on Kold and Rain. 
Money back guarantee.

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If no more 90's for the rest of the year, I have officially had 52 days of those. Not many would actually be proud of that statistic however. My personal previous highest number was 38 in these last 10 years here.

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
2020-2021 - 19.00" (53%)
 
2021 Thunderstorms (9)
05/14, 06/22, 06/24, 07/27, 07/29
07/31, 08/01, 08/05, 08/13, 
 
Biggest Snowstorm - 18.4" (Jan 3-4 2017 - 26 hours)
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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A very balmy 56 for a low this morning. Already blasting up to 69. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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37 minutes ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

If no more 90's for the rest of the year, I have officially had 52 days of those. Not many would actually be proud of that statistic however. My personal previous highest number was 38 in these last 10 years here.

Thinking your 90s days are done… 52 is quite an impressive number and alarming. 

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Just now, Cloud said:

Then more rain 🌧 from day 9 into day 10. 10 days totals roughly 0.7” for SEA and puget sound. Timing is moving along nicely. 

Yeah... models have converged on a weak system Wednesday and then a much stronger system on Friday into Saturday.   Those two events are showing up consistently on every run now.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... models have converged on a weak system Wednesday and then a much stronger system on Friday into Saturday.   Those two events are showing up consistently on every run now.

2nd system trending north. Non-event down here unfortunately. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 12.0"                        2020-21: 65.58"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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