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September Wx Obs for the PacNW (2021 Edition)


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1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My father in law passed away last night. ☹️ he was in decent shape for 71 years old. Long story short 17 days ago he went in and got the covid vaccine and started feeling sick the next day. 4 more days went by and he was having a very hard time breathing so he went to hospital.  They did everything possible to save him but his lungs couldn't keep enuff oxygen in his blood and he passed. I don't know much about the vaccine or how this could of happened but it did. and of course my fiancee couldn't even go see her father because of this fuking covid bullshit. 

No words man. Sorry for your loss

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It's really chilly tonight.  I may wish for some Spicy Chilly Peppers to whip up a warm elixer. 

I left this forum because of the drama on here and didn't want to get involved in the crap. It makes(d) this site become too much like Reddit's circle jerking if you've ever been there I'm sure you've seen how you can be banned for literally no reason other then mods displeasure.  (not from the site itself but a sub). It actually takes a lot to be IP banned however.......🛸.  A new thing they are doing is if your banned in one sub they will follow you and ban you in others you've never heard of!    It would be equal to be banned on this site and find out your banned from the Australia Weather Forums despite never having an account there!

I'm not sure what it's like to be IP banned from Reddit but archived posts do say it has happened to other users. 

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17 minutes ago, Link said:

It's really chilly tonight.  I may wish for some Spicy Chilly Peppers to whip up a warm elixer. 

I left this forum because of the drama on here and didn't want to get involved in the crap. It makes(d) this site become too much like Reddit's circle jerking if you've ever been there I'm sure you've seen how you can be banned for literally no reason other then mods displeasure.  (not from the site itself but a sub). It actually takes a lot to be IP banned however.......🛸.  A new thing they are doing is if your banned in one sub they will follow you and ban you in others you've never heard of!    It would be equal to be banned on this site and find out your banned from the Australia Weather Forums despite never having an account there!

I'm not sure what it's like to be IP banned from Reddit but archived posts do say it has happened to other users. 

I'm keeping a low profile, too. I hate drama.

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6 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Got my mother in law from the hospital. The doctors were able to save her and she is on blood thinners now. She will be a lot slower and I’m trying to convince her to retire.

So glad to hear this! Wishing her the best.

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5 hours ago, Timmy_Supercell said:

Severe thunderstorm moving into Idaho. And look what picture was shared on the facebook page!

241840406_1424493051255219_892955724395124976_n.jpg

241749188_6495929450425157_4902333653748308436_n.jpg

KCBX_loop.gif

I would’ve taken a shelfie.

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4 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My father in law passed away last night. ☹️ he was in decent shape for 71 years old. Long story short 17 days ago he went in and got the covid vaccine and started feeling sick the next day. 4 more days went by and he was having a very hard time breathing so he went to hospital.  They did everything possible to save him but his lungs couldn't keep enuff oxygen in his blood and he passed. I don't know much about the vaccine or how this could of happened but it did. and of course my fiancee couldn't even go see her father because of this fuking covid bullshit. 

Ugh. That’s just not fair. Thoughts and prayers for you and your family.

By chance do you know which vaccine he recieved?

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1 hour ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z ECMWF - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, 10 Day Rainfall totals

Not quite on par with the GFS as the trough doesn't dig as far south over us.

floop-ecmwf-2021091100.500h_anom.na(1).gif

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

Do you think Tim is going thru a post fire season grieving process now that his favorite type of weather is rapidly losing strength?  I often feel like Tim needs Fire armor set and just live on Death Mountain with the Gorons then he'd be happy a lot more.

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5 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My father in law passed away last night. ☹️ he was in decent shape for 71 years old. Long story short 17 days ago he went in and got the covid vaccine and started feeling sick the next day. 4 more days went by and he was having a very hard time breathing so he went to hospital.  They did everything possible to save him but his lungs couldn't keep enuff oxygen in his blood and he passed. I don't know much about the vaccine or how this could of happened but it did. and of course my fiancee couldn't even go see her father because of this fuking covid bullshit. 

I've been sitting here bummed out tonight myself.  As I mentioned a couple days ago my Dad's life long friend died as a result of COVID a few days ago, and I've known this guy since I can remember.  He was a tough old guy who wanted nothing to do with hospitals and he was doing ok fighting it at home, but he ended up falling one night, because he was so weak and the concussion from the fall is what took his life.  For me at least 2021 has basically been a continuation of 2020.  Nothing has been the same since that insidious virus arrived.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Well...the ECMWF is looking more clipperish with the systems over the next 10 days.  A lot of cool air, but only one solid shot of rain.  Still very definite fall weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

Ugh. That’s just not fair. Thoughts and prayers for you and your family.

By chance do you know which vaccine he recieved?

That is a great question.  Most of the negative effects I've heard about are from the vaccines that require two doses.  I took the J & J and didn't notice any ill effects.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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6 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

How cold/snowy are we talking ?

I would give a thousand for a winter at least as good as something like 1956-57.  For an 1861-62 and 1949-50 probably a fair bit more.  You also have really good winters like 1928-29 or 1936-37 that would be no brainers for over a thousand.  The two winters this century that came close are 2008-09 and 2018-19.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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8 hours ago, DJ Droppin said:

00z GFS - 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly, 10 Day Rainfall Totals, 10 Day Snowfall Totals

Now that's what I'm talking about. An abrupt 180 degree turn into Fall. C'MON!!!! @Kaylamight like this! :D
floop-gfs-2021091100.500h_anom_na.gif
qpf_acc.us_nw.png
sn10_acc.us_nw.png

I would LOVE to see that verify! Unfortunately the GFS is out on its own with digging that trough much deeper. With that said it has been consistent so you never know!

 

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Cold Season 2021/22:

Total snowfall: 0.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 0.0"

Highest snow depth: 0.0"

Coldest high: 47.0º

Coldest low: 40.3º

Number of subzero days: 0

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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5 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

That is a great question.  Most of the negative effects I've heard about are from the vaccines that require two doses.  I took the J & J and didn't notice any ill effects.

I took 2 doses of Pfizer and never noticed a thing. Got my shot and went straight back to work both times. 
 

Im pretty sure it’s the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines that have been linked to rare but occasionally deadly blood clots. 

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12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I took 2 doses of Pfizer and never noticed a thing. Got my shot and went straight back to work both times. 
 

Im pretty sure it’s the J&J and AstraZeneca vaccines that have been linked to rare but occasionally deadly blood clots. 

The issue is the medicines administered to patients at the hospital. You wonder why so many say they can't breathe feel like their are drowning. Because they are on their own fluids. The most common medicine Remdesivir leads to fluid retention in the kidneys, then lungs, and heart. It is causing far more deaths than the virus itself and if you have underlying conditions mainly. These "vaccines" were fast tracked far too quickly without adequate research, trials, testing, etc. There is no way to know the short term and long term side effects. How is there. Every other vaccine the past 100 years had thorough testing over many years or decades. I am concerned about my nephew who had a heart transplant in 2019 and is vaccinated. So far so good thank God.

12z GFS in 1 hour 12 minutes

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Looks like we got down to 50F under cloudy skies.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 50 (Most recent: Apr 14, 2021)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24, 2020)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

 

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6 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I would give a thousand for a winter at least as good as something like 1956-57.  For an 1861-62 and 1949-50 probably a fair bit more.  You also have really good winters like 1928-29 or 1936-37 that would be no brainers for over a thousand.  The two winters this century that came close are 2008-09 and 2018-19.

Do you mind linking some weather records from that 1861-62 winter? It sounds amazing but my research hasn’t lead me far.

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10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Do you mind linking some weather records from that 1861-62 winter? It sounds amazing but my research hasn’t lead me far.

Some links in case you're interested

https://www.historylink.org/file/164

https://mynorthwest.com/1516426/lost-clues-winter-1861-1862/?

I know Jim has some microfilm records of that winter with snow depth, and in case you're ever interested here are the full datasets from Fort Vancouver and Fort Steilacoom from 1849-1868, with temperature obs on those right columns from 7am, 2pm, and 8pm.

WA_Fort_Vancouver.data (1).csv

WA_Fort_Steilacoom.data.csv

Some of the more major highlights from those years include December 1852, January 1854, January 1857, February 1858, 1861-62, 1864-65, 1865-66, March 1867, and January 1868.

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23 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Absolutely gorgeous morning on the Oregon coast. 

77CCA4E3-70D8-4B0D-A57A-4DD1ED44EF11.jpeg

B546FB19-F12A-4D3A-B810-CCA3A6EC76A9.jpeg

4C7CEDC9-9AE5-41C3-807B-F1E4371E5543.jpeg

3CCBEE94-E421-49E3-B842-F6447688DAE8.jpeg

Great shots. We’re headed to Lincoln City in a couple weeks. Been about 20 years since we’ve been to the Oregon coast. Looking forward to it. 

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55 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Some links in case you're interested

https://www.historylink.org/file/164

https://mynorthwest.com/1516426/lost-clues-winter-1861-1862/?

I know Jim has some microfilm records of that winter with snow depth, and in case you're ever interested here are the full datasets from Fort Vancouver and Fort Steilacoom from 1849-1868, with temperature obs on those right columns from 7am, 2pm, and 8pm.

WA_Fort_Vancouver.data (1).csv 729.23 kB · 1 download

WA_Fort_Steilacoom.data.csv 354.84 kB · 0 downloads

Some of the more major highlights from those years include December 1852, January 1854, January 1857, February 1858, 1861-62, 1864-65, 1865-66, March 1867, and January 1868.

four straight weeks below freezing is insane. The magnitude of it alone would be something else to experience. Too bad we'll never see anything like it again

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1123931075_download(48).thumb.png.0f43c49966f680645948993ce192faa4.png

Today looks to mix out well with temperatures warming to a seasonably mild 75-78F this afternoon. I've got to hand it to @TT-SEA, at first I doubted the GFS temp output, but it's been relatively close all summer. Really the only model to capture our unusually efficient low-level mixing this summer. Tim's trust in the GFS has paid off.

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Very impressive 12z GFS both for temperature and precip.  A couple ensemble members go below zero in less than a week.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Do you mind linking some weather records from that 1861-62 winter? It sounds amazing but my research hasn’t lead me far.

I have charts I transcribed from microfilm of the original documents.  I'll post them sometime this weekend.  Jaw dropping stuff.

As an aside we are incredibly lucky that winter was documented in the Puget Sound area in two ways.  One was numerical data (minus snow depths) at Fort Steilacom, and the other is a newspaper that was being published in the same exact area that winter that gives details.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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Just now, snow_wizard said:

I have charts I transcribed from microfilm of the original documents.  I'll post them sometime this weekend.  Jaw dropping stuff.

BLI filled me in on some of it, though if you've got anything else I'd love to see it. The duration of that winter's dip is just unreal.

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8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

1123931075_download(48).thumb.png.0f43c49966f680645948993ce192faa4.png

Today looks to mix out well with temperatures warming to a seasonably mild 75-78F this afternoon. I've got to hand it to @TT-SEA, at first I doubted the GFS temp output, but it's been relatively close all summer. Really the only model to capture our unusually efficient low-level mixing this summer. Tim's trust in the GFS has paid off.

It has been wildly too hot in a lot of cases after about 5 days out in many cases though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

BLI filled me in on some of it, though if you've got anything else I'd love to see it. The duration of that winter's dip is just unreal.

Mid December through mid February was hard core.  One of the amazing stats is Fort Vancouver had anywhere from 6 to 24 inches of snow on the ground for ALL of both January and February.  That is in the observers own words.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Some links in case you're interested

https://www.historylink.org/file/164

https://mynorthwest.com/1516426/lost-clues-winter-1861-1862/?

I know Jim has some microfilm records of that winter with snow depth, and in case you're ever interested here are the full datasets from Fort Vancouver and Fort Steilacoom from 1849-1868, with temperature obs on those right columns from 7am, 2pm, and 8pm.

WA_Fort_Vancouver.data (1).csv 729.23 kB · 2 downloads

WA_Fort_Steilacoom.data.csv 354.84 kB · 1 download

Some of the more major highlights from those years include December 1852, January 1854, January 1857, February 1858, 1861-62, 1864-65, 1865-66, March 1867, and January 1868.

That period was absolutely incredible.  So incredibly lucky we have records from the forts.

Fascinating write up from Larry Schick BTW about 1861-62.  I think Nick Bond, who is now the Washington State climatologist, put me onto the microfilm from the National Archives which is why I found the records so much earlier than Schick did.

One thing he didn't mention was how extraordinary the summer was before that winter.  Weeks on end of endless sunshine and highs temps 80s to low 90s.  It was the hottest summer of the last half of the 19th century.  Just an incredible progression that season / year.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2021-22 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0"

Coldest Low = 42

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

 

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